Prospect Info: 2018-19 Prospects Thread III (CHL, NCAA, Junior A, Europe)

[Goulet17]

Burning a year seems to be the price for signing higher draft picks out of the NCAA at the moment. Whether it is smart or not, it would seem to be the exception (not burning a year) rather than the rule in terms of how teams are approaching things.

 

[Goulet17]

I'm really not surprised. I think GMs in general learned from the last expansion draft, seeing how well Vegas is doing despite the teams at risk of giving up good players at the time doing everything they could to ensure they didn't, that you shouldn't react too much to the draft. It'll happen, if you're a good team you'll probably lose a pretty good player, so be it.

Now, this is a case where it'd be super easy to just not play Makar this season to save a year...and the smart thing to do because it is such a simple move (or lack of move) in order to protect an extra player...but this is also the Avs. Of course they want to show off one of the best drafted prospects in hockey. The Canucks, the team with the other best draft prospect in hockey, are planning to show off Hughes too. Looks like the Preds don't particularly care either with Fabbro. Plus, it's a really nice bonus to give to Makar (burning a year of his ELC+taste of the NHL) -- and the Avs probably don't want to look like they don't value Makar as much as the Canucks value Hughes, for example. Makar is good enough (or projects to be good enough) the Avs probably don't really care if they have to expose Zadorov, for instance, to the expansion draft.

As you noted in your post, all teams are burning the year, it is not a case of the Avs doing something out of the ordinary or taking an unusual approach.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I think people forget that hockey is a business. You need to factor in sex appeal, selling tickets and attracting free agents. Not to mention Makar is good and could improve the hockey team. Every additional game of playoff hockey earned is millions of dollars of revenue. Not to say Makar is going to be great and accomplish that himself, but he very well could be a difference maker.

You have the greatest drafted prospect in the world waiting to play. You don’t sit him out to save a year of a contract or to save yourself from losing a depth defenseman in 2 years. This organization cannot f***ing wait to show Cale Makar off to the world. Makar + 1st OA + a decent playoff showing makes the Avs the talk of the hockey world this summer. That’s what the Colorado Avalanche want.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Sakic to his FO personnel: "You know guys...I know we'll burn an ELC year but that will also give us a chance to see if we can trade Barrie this summer or wait until he is more ready."

Sorry somebody had to say it.

Leaving the room now.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Yeah I dont really care what direction we go in with Makar... If we dont sign him right away and wait until the summer then that's fine, keeps him out of the expansion draft and allows us to protect another depth guy... Great.


If we do sign him and get him into game action right away, that means his ELC will essentially be just 2 years long, which can have its benefits as well. That means potentially being able to sign him long term to a contract in the summer of 2021 instead of the summer of 2022 which could potentially mean getting Makar for 2-3M less. Lets say he has a good start to his pro career but doesn't completely burn down villages, after two years we lock him up long term at 5.5-6M. On the flip side giving him 3 years of his ELC means he has a chance to truly burn down villages in that 3rd year and then you might be having to sign him for 8-9M or more after his ELC.



So either way I think there's benefits in both directions.

 

[McMetal]

Yeah I dont really care what direction we go in with Makar... If we dont sign him right away and wait until the summer then that's fine, keeps him out of the expansion draft and allows us to protect another depth guy... Great.


If we do sign him and get him into game action right away, that means his ELC will essentially be just 2 years long, which can have its benefits as well. That means potentially being able to sign him long term to a contract in the summer of 2021 instead of the summer of 2022 which could potentially mean getting Makar for 2-3M less. Lets say he has a good start to his pro career but doesn't completely burn down villages, after two years we lock him up long term at 5.5-6M. On the flip side giving him 3 years of his ELC means he has a chance to truly burn down villages in that 3rd year and then you might be having to sign him for 8-9M or more after his ELC.



So either way I think there's benefits in both directions.

Imagine if we had played Rantanen for more than nine games his rookie year and his ELC hadn't slid. Losing an ELC year isn't the end of the world on a young player. And like I've said before, we're going to lose a good young player to the XD this time around no matter what we do with Makar. If burning a year is the cost to get him on the team, Sakic shouldn't be playing hardball with him.

 

[S3rkie]

Yeah I dont really care what direction we go in with Makar... If we dont sign him right away and wait until the summer then that's fine, keeps him out of the expansion draft and allows us to protect another depth guy... Great.


If we do sign him and get him into game action right away, that means his ELC will essentially be just 2 years long, which can have its benefits as well. That means potentially being able to sign him long term to a contract in the summer of 2021 instead of the summer of 2022 which could potentially mean getting Makar for 2-3M less. Lets say he has a good start to his pro career but doesn't completely burn down villages, after two years we lock him up long term at 5.5-6M. On the flip side giving him 3 years of his ELC means he has a chance to truly burn down villages in that 3rd year and then you might be having to sign him for 8-9M or more after his ELC.



So either way I think there's benefits in both directions.

This is where I'm at with it. For sure I'd be interested to watch how he handles it, but I'll be happy if they wait.

 

[S E P H]

I got St. Cloud vs UMass and Minn-Duluth vs Providence as my final four with St. Cloud State beating UMass and then defeating Minn-Duluth in the Championship game. So if my predictions are correct, the soonest we'll see Makar is April 12th.

 

[avsfan09]

Imagine if we had played Rantanen for more than nine games his rookie year and his ELC hadn't slid. Losing an ELC year isn't the end of the world on a young player. And like I've said before, we're going to lose a good young player to the XD this time around no matter what we do with Makar. If burning a year is the cost to get him on the team, Sakic shouldn't be playing hardball with him.

This justification always bothers me. Why wouldn't you want to control which player you lose...

 

[McMetal]

This justification always bothers me. Why wouldn't you want to control which player you lose...

My guess is Compher is gone regardless of what we do.

MacK, Landy, Rantanen, [Hayes or other UFA]
Girard, Barrie, EJ, [Makar, or Zadorov if Makar is spared]

So we either lose Z or Compher, with Compher and Jost exposed regardless of what we do with Makar. There just isn't any way to slice this roster to not expose a quality player, no matter what happens with Makar.

 

[Ararana]

I wonder if Sakic is watching Quinn Hughes in Vancouver tonight and going 'hmmmmmm'. The kid has had himself a decent game so far.

 

[Balthazar]

My guess is Compher is gone regardless of what we do.

MacK, Landy, Rantanen, [Hayes or other UFA]
Girard, Barrie, EJ, [Makar, or Zadorov if Makar is spared]

So we either lose Z or Compher, with Compher and Jost exposed regardless of what we do with Makar. There just isn't any way to slice this roster to not expose a quality player, no matter what happens with Makar.

If Z, Compher and Jost are exposed I highly doubt Compher will be the one to go.

 

[avsfan09]

My guess is Compher is gone regardless of what we do.

MacK, Landy, Rantanen, [Hayes or other UFA]
Girard, Barrie, EJ, [Makar, or Zadorov if Makar is spared]

So we either lose Z or Compher, with Compher and Jost exposed regardless of what we do with Makar. There just isn't any way to slice this roster to not expose a quality player, no matter what happens with Makar.

It has nothing to do with not losing a quality player. It has to do with having the choice to pick the player who develops the best by than. What if Jost hits 50 next year in a complimentary role? Or Compher hits 50? Why wouldn't you want to have control over choosing the more valuable piece.

Also why is Compher gone in your eyes regardless of what we do?

 

[McMetal]

It has nothing to do with not losing a quality player. It has to do with having the choice to pick the player who develops the best by than. What if Jost hits 50 next year in a complimentary role? Or Compher hits 50? Why wouldn't you want to have control over choosing the more valuable piece.

Also why is Compher gone in your eyes regardless of what we do?

Compher is the player I'd take out of the ones exposed. He's a good middle sixer and utility player who can slot into a top six on a team with poor top end depth, which is likely going to be what Seattle looks like.

And didn't you see the exposure list I posted? We can't protect Jost no matter what we do or how he develops. Unless we want to move on from whatever UFA we get this summer in two yearsyea just don't have the room for it. If not Jost, then Z is the one who goes as a casualty. There is no winning this for us, just accept it and move on. I'm guess that's Sakic's calculus.

 

[avsfan09]

Compher is the player I'd take out of the ones exposed. He's a good middle sixer and utility player who can slot into a top six on a team with poor top end depth, which is likely going to be what Seattle looks like.

And didn't you see the exposure list I posted? We can't protect Jost no matter what we do or how he develops. Unless we want to move on from whatever UFA we get this summer in two years just don't have the room for it. If not Jost, then Z is the one who goes as a casualty. There is no winning this for us, just accept it and move on. I'm guess that's Sakic's calculus.

There are so many options that your ignoring. Maybe I'll post some options in the morning. For now lets just disagree haha.

 

[Ararana]

This only matters if UMass falls on their faces

 

[Freudian]

If Avs burn a year it's not because they want it but because Makar wants it. Same with Fabbro.

It doesn't reflect poorly on the players either, it's just a reflection of the situation and the leverage players in their situation has.

If it happens, Avs just have to deal with it down the line. Timmins, Kaut and Bowers should be exempt at least.

Ideally Makar would wait to sign until July 1st.

 

[Chiarelli]

There isn't absolutely 0% chance the Avs don't sign Makar this season if given the chance after seeing Quinn Hughes tonight

 

[Avsboy]

Yeah, Ive changed my mind on Makar. Bring him in.

 

[McMetal]

If Avs burn a year it's not because they want it but because Makar wants it. Same with Fabbro.

It doesn't reflect poorly on the players either, it's just a reflection of the situation and the leverage players in their situation has.

If it happens, Avs just have to deal with it down the line. Timmins, Kaut and Bowers should be exempt at least.

Ideally Makar would wait to sign until July 1st.

Timmins will not be exempt, despite him not playing a game this year. Not that it will likely matter one way or the other with his condition...

 

[Foppberg]

If Z, Compher and Jost are exposed I highly doubt Compher will be the one to go.

Really? I would say JTC would be the one to go for sure.

 

[Ararana]

There isn't absolutely 0% chance the Avs don't sign Makar this season if given the chance after seeing Quinn Hughes tonight

 

[Balthazar]

Really? I would say JTC would be the one to go for sure.

Right now, possibly. 2 years from now, hopefully he isn't the best of the 3.

 

[Foppberg]

Right now, possibly. 2 years from now, hopefully he isn't the best of the 3.

I dunno, I think you're selling JTC a bit short. It wouldn't surprise me to see Z be the more valuable one between the 3, but he's such a wild card I just don't know. And Jost, I'm not that confident in.

 

[AvsCOL]

Quinn Hughes is a great skater, looks good out there. His defensive issues are real, but man that kid is going to make some highlight reel plays in the offensive zone.