Prospect Info: 2018/19 Marlies & Prospects Thread Part VI

[4thline]

Their height, weight, reach, etc. are measured at the NHL draft combine every year. This isn't 20-30 years ago.

Yes prospects are measured at the combine. It's the one time when you can expect hockey players size to be accurately reported.

Program listings for active NHL players? Not so much

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Their height, weight, reach, etc. are measured at the NHL draft combine every year. This isn't 20-30 years ago.

What if they were not at the combine? Not everyone is invited. In fact I think only Kokkonen and Robertson were there for us this year. Maybe Abramov too.

 

[deletethis]

Yes prospects are measured at the combine. It's the one time when you can expect hockey players size to be accurately reported.

Program listings for active NHL players? Not so much

The combine has been around for 19 years.

 

[weems]

How many defencemen in the NHL are 6 foot and under?

Using the "under 6 foot" baseline is fine but theres minimal difference between someone who's 5'11 and 6'

Just looking at our own division and McAvoy, Dermott, Montour, Weager, Kronwall all sit right at the 6' mark.

I'm guessing the number would increase nicely when you just up the criteria by 1 inch.

 

[deletethis]

How many defencemen in the NHL are 6 foot and under?

Using the "under 6 foot" baseline is fine but theres minimal difference between someone who's 5'11 and 6'

Just looking at our own division and McAvoy, Dermott, Montour, Weager, Kronwall all sit right at the 6' mark.

I'm guessing the number would increase nicely when you just up the criteria by 1 inch.

There's a limitation on 6' and under too. It's 50 who played 40+ games in 2018-19.

The vast majority of NHL defensemen using this criteria are 6'1" and over: 145 out of 195 defensemen.

I actually don't get the push back on this. It's cold facts that NHL defensemen on average are tall because height offers advantages. I wonder if there would be this much push back if I pointed out that goalies are tall with only 3 under 6' playing more than 20 games in the league last season.

 

[Matthews34]

There's a limitation on 6' and under too. It's 50 who played 40+ games in 2018-19.

The vast majority of NHL defensemen using this criteria are 6'1" and over: 145 out of 195 defensemen.

I actually don't get the push back on this. It's cold facts that NHL defensemen on average are tall because height offers advantages. I wonder if there would be this much push back if I pointed out that goalies are tall with only 3 under 6' playing more than 20 games in the league last season.

We're getting push back because Dubas drafted below average in height so it has to be right! Dubas can do no wrong in some people's eyes.

 

[Fogelhund]

We're getting push back because Dubas drafted below average in height so it has to be right! Dubas can do no wrong in some people's eyes.

No, it comes down to people having the patience, to see how these picks actually work out. But, some people want to make judgements, on players that they know very little about, simply because of one measurement. It's searching for a reason to complain. I suppose the same people will be claiming their great knowledge, and how dumb Dubas was, when a seventh round pick doesn't make it.... or course, that most of the other seventh round picks didn't make it either, will be lost on them.

 

[deletethis]

Remember: evidence only matters when it supports my position. If it contradicts my position, it's obviously prejudicial and a bias that needs to change.

 

[Fogelhund]

Remember: evidence only matters when it supports my position. If it contradicts my position, it's obviously prejudicial and a bias that needs to change.

Evidence? What you've presented, is such a shallow dip into the data, that it's close to meaningless.

 

[deletethis]

Evidence? What you've presented, is such a shallow dip into the data, that it's close to meaningless.

QED

 

[Fogelhund]

QED

False

 

[X66]

We're getting push back because Dubas drafted below average in height so it has to be right! Dubas can do no wrong in some people's eyes.

Lol ya'll need to do your own research guys.

Even the 'successful' Hunter pick(legit prospects) tended to not be monsters lol.

Here is a list of all prospects the Leafs drafted that are 6 feet or under, with Dubas and Hunter...

Marner
Dermott
Bracco
Lindgren
Timashov
Brooks
Grundstrom(traded)
Sandin
Hollowell
Holmberg
(too early for Robertson and Koko, but think they'll be good)

Vs the players with size(including misses as well)

Korshkov
Nielson
Desrocher
Korostelev
Greenway
Middleton
Mattinen
Rasanen
Kara
Gordeev(traded)

What list would you rather have?

 

[RoadWarrior]

We're getting push back because Dubas drafted below average in height so it has to be right! Dubas can do no wrong in some people's eyes.

It seems as though there are some people in this forum that just can’t get beyond a players country of origin, ethnicity or height largely ignoring their on ice performance.

Thankfully the leafs care more about winning.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Top 30 Leafs Prospects (1996 and younger)
1) RD Timothy Liljegren
2) LD Rasmus Sandin
3) RW Jeremy Bracco
4) LW/C Nicolas Robertson
5) G Joseph Woll
6) G Ian Scott
7) RD Mikko Kokkonen
8) RD Jesper Lindgren
9) LW/RW Yegor Korshkov
10) C Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
11) RD Mac Hollowell
12) LW/RW Pierre Engvall
13) C Adam Brooks
14) C/RW Mikhail Abramov
15) RD Eemeli Rasanen
16) C Nick Abrusseze
17) RW/LW Michael Carcone
18) LW/RW Dmytro Timashov
19) RW/LW Martins Dzierkals
20) LD Michael Koster
21) RD Joseph Duszak
22) C Riley Stotts
23) LD Filip Kral
24) LD JD Greenway
25) C/LW Pontus Holmberg
26) RW Semyon Kizimov
27) LW Vladislav Kara
28) RD Kalle Loponen
29) LW/RW Nikolai Chebykin
30) LD Ryan O'Connell

Missed the cut: LW/RW Vladimir Bobylev and G Zachary Bouthillier (& Dakota Joshua but apparently we are going to let his rights expire so I didn't count him).

 

[SprDaVE]

Good blurb in Friedmans 31 thoughts about the Growlers. We're about to see a lot more prospects/AHL level players going to the ECHL in the future I think with Toronto leading the way in this.

 

[deletethis]

It seems as though there are some people in this forum that just can’t get beyond a players country of origin, ethnicity or height largely ignoring their on ice performance.

Thankfully the leafs care more about winning.

Speaking of winning, the number of under 6' defensemen who played at least 4 games in the past playoffs: 9 out of 99.

Can't get 6' or taller after the 1st round? 54 6' or more were drafted 2nd round or later or signed as free agents.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Good blurb in Friedmans 31 thoughts about the Growlers. We're about to see a lot more prospects/AHL level players going to the ECHL in the future I think with Toronto leading the way in this.

nice to see this re-affirmed, I don't know if I've seen the AAA/AA reference by any official source since Dubas said it a few years ago, but really shows that their committed to that model which should be great for development and a continuous stream of home grown replacements.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

Speaking of winning, the number of under 6' defensemen who played at least 4 games in the past playoffs: 9 out of 99.

Can't get 6' or taller after the 1st round? 54 6' or more were drafted 2nd round or later or signed as free agents.

Have you sent this info to Kyle?

WHY ARE YOU SITTING ON THIS VALUABLE INFORMATION?!?!?!?

 

[deletethis]

purpose served

 

[deletethis]

In 2018-19, for 6' and taller defensemen who played over 40 games,

96 were drafted in the 2nd round or later (or undrafted).

Contrast that with 23 total defensemen under 6' from all sources.

It's classic confirmation bias every time a tall defense draft pick flames out. There's a low rate of success on acquiring any defenseman outside of the 1st round of the draft of any type.

Putting most of your eggs in the basket that makes up 10 to 12 % of all total defensemen is an error.

 

[Mad hatter]

on the lighter side: Replacement ECHL trophy got broken at a Newfie strip club

Lol, that sounds like my kind of celebration

 

[Joey Hoser]

In 2018-19, for 6' and taller defensemen who played over 40 games,

96 were drafted in the 2nd round or later (or undrafted).

Contrast that with 23 total defensemen under 6' from all sources.

It's classic confirmation bias every time a tall defense draft pick flames out. There's a low rate of success on acquiring any defenseman outside of the 1st round of the draft of any type.

Putting most of your eggs in the basket that makes up 10 to 12 % of all total defensemen is an error.

This isn't how you evaluate how good a player is.

 

[deletethis]

It's very nice that the ECHL is being treated well but the truth is that there is little benefit to over-investing into these players. At best it'll bring in future Marlies' filler. It would be better to just download the services completely, scout the entire ECHL (very) thoroughly and keep out an eye for the best of the best playing in the entire ECHL. For example, Justin Holl was found on another ECHL team not on the Leafs' ECHL affiliate.

The ECHL is often a necessity for early pro goalie development and that's about it since the days of teaching your goon draft picks how to play hockey is over.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Speaking of winning, the number of under 6' defensemen who played at least 4 games in the past playoffs: 9 out of 99.

Can't get 6' or taller after the 1st round? 54 6' or more were drafted 2nd round or later or signed as free agents.

....and most of 6'+ drafted players bust. Try again.

The bottom line is that skill, hockey IQ and skating ability are better predictors of success in the pros than height.

 

[Randy Randerson]

In 2018-19, for 6' and taller defensemen who played over 40 games,

96 were drafted in the 2nd round or later (or undrafted).

Contrast that with 23 total defensemen under 6' from all sources.

It's classic confirmation bias every time a tall defense draft pick flames out. There's a low rate of success on acquiring any defenseman outside of the 1st round of the draft of any type.

Putting most of your eggs in the basket that makes up 10 to 12 % of all total defensemen is an error.

There's also a much higher rate of success in finding impact dmen outside of the 1st round than forwards, and especially centers. Order the top NHL dmen by whatever metric you think is telling of their worth, and count how many non 1st rounders are on the 1st page. It will be more than the same exercise with forwards and a lot more than the same exercise with centers.

There's a low success rate for all player types after the 1st round, imo you swing for the fences when you're in a position like ours. The Leafs have lots of good NHL'ers, and probably lots of good ones waiting for their opportunity, but supplemental impact talent is what could really help. If you can replace a Connor Brown, Zach Hyman, Patrick Marleau with someone who's as good as Atkinson/Arvidsson/etc, that's what really puts this team over the top. And the same on the back end, if you can find a Slavin/Parayko/Giordano/Krug with a non-premium pick that's a huge supplement.

Also, the dividing line at 6' is probably skewing your results, the height embellishment principal is probably at its most true when crossing that line from something that starts with a 5 to something that starts with a 6. We saw Dermott turn 6' at 19/20 years old for example