Prospect Info: 2018/19 Marlies & Prospects Thread Part VI

[Randy Randerson]

It wouldn't what player I name because it's an opinion. But I know this smaller player are boom or bust picks. Players drafted 6'1" can find a roll in the bottom 6 or pairings as ginders. How many 5'9" grinders do you see in the NHL? Not every player drafted will play in your top six or top pair but drafting below average puts limits roles they could play in the NHL. Every pick shouldn't be boom or bust!!

honestly, some of the best grinders in the league are 5'9" or there abouts - Marchand, Gallagher are top of the list, Leipsic was considered to be the best pure-pest prospect in hockey at one time ("the most annoying prospect in hockey"), Max Domi, Conor Garland is carving himself out a 4th line role with great positive possession impact, Conor Sheary is a good 3rd liner, Cagiulla is as well, Kerfoot is at least that and might be better, Malgin's been good in a bottom 6 role, Fiala's certainly carving himself out a career despite not hitting his offensive projections, have a look at Arvidsson's possession numbers and try to say with a straight face that he needs to score to be an NHL'er, Jesper Bratt is sticking in the NHL even without producing, I believe Komarov was 5'10" at draft time and turned out to be a relative thug by NHL standards, Zucarello is a possession monster at 5'8", Konecny is a terrific middle 6 player, Labanc was 5'10" at draft time and is a very good player even when he's not scoring, Schwartz is a great possession player, Fabbri is a player when he's healthy, Johnson & Point are NHL'ers without scoring, Marchessault is in the NHL without his scoring, Perreault is a possession beast, etc.

Plus you just watched a season where Johnsson emerged as a good middle 6 player who is possession dominant, and you saw all of Moore, Ennis & Petan play well in 4th line roles

I also omitted the TONS of guys that are 5'11" and/or less than 185lbs, and a lot of those were 5'9" or 5'10" when they were drafted

 

[Martin Skoula]

honestly, some of the best grinders in the league are 5'9" or there abouts - Marchand, Gallagher are top of the list, Leipsic was considered to be the best pure-pest prospect in hockey at one time ("the most annoying prospect in hockey"), Max Domi, Conor Garland is carving himself out a 4th line role with great positive possession impact, Conor Sheary is a good 3rd liner, Cagiulla is as well, Kerfoot is at least that and might be better, Malgin's been good in a bottom 6 role, Fiala's certainly carving himself out a career despite not hitting his offensive projections, have a look at Arvidsson's possession numbers and try to say with a straight face that he needs to score to be an NHL'er, Jesper Bratt is sticking in the NHL even without producing, I believe Komarov was 5'10" at draft time and turned out to be a relative thug by NHL standards, Zucarello is a possession monster at 5'8", Konecny is a terrific middle 6 player, Labanc was 5'10" at draft time and is a very good player even when he's not scoring, Schwartz is a great possession player, Fabbri is a player when he's healthy, Johnson & Point are NHL'ers without scoring, Marchessault is in the NHL without his scoring, Perreault is a possession beast, etc.

Plus you just watched a season where Johnsson emerged as a good middle 6 player who is possession dominant, and you saw all of Moore, Ennis & Petan play well in 4th line roles

I also omitted the TONS of guys that are 5'11" and/or less than 185lbs, and a lot of those were 5'9" or 5'10" when they were drafted

Honestly the guys that were always big growing up tend to be the guys who lack a killer instinct or willingness to hit with the intention of actually doing some damage. The guys growing up smaller than their peers are the ones who had to develop a chip on their shoulder just to survive. Ideally the angry 5'8 guys turn into angry 6'1 men down the road, but it's not a necessity. It's still more likely than the 6'4 gentle giant suddenly developing a killer instinct overnight.

 

[Matthews34]

honestly, some of the best grinders in the league are 5'9" or there abouts - Marchand, Gallagher are top of the list, Leipsic was considered to be the best pure-pest prospect in hockey at one time ("the most annoying prospect in hockey"), Max Domi, Conor Garland is carving himself out a 4th line role with great positive possession impact, Conor Sheary is a good 3rd liner, Cagiulla is as well, Kerfoot is at least that and might be better, Malgin's been good in a bottom 6 role, Fiala's certainly carving himself out a career despite not hitting his offensive projections, have a look at Arvidsson's possession numbers and try to say with a straight face that he needs to score to be an NHL'er, Jesper Bratt is sticking in the NHL even without producing, I believe Komarov was 5'10" at draft time and turned out to be a relative thug by NHL standards, Zucarello is a possession monster at 5'8", Konecny is a terrific middle 6 player, Labanc was 5'10" at draft time and is a very good player even when he's not scoring, Schwartz is a great possession player, Fabbri is a player when he's healthy, Johnson & Point are NHL'ers without scoring, Marchessault is in the NHL without his scoring, Perreault is a possession beast, etc.

Plus you just watched a season where Johnsson emerged as a good middle 6 player who is possession dominant, and you saw all of Moore, Ennis & Petan play well in 4th line roles

I also omitted the TONS of guys that are 5'11" and/or less than 185lbs, and a lot of those were 5'9" or 5'10" when they were drafted

That being said you can’t build a team full of 5’9” players because teams with size will over power them. You need balance. Plus the players Dubas drafted aren’t known being pests so your point is irrelevant.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Honestly the guys that were always big growing up tend to be the guys who lack a killer instinct or willingness to hit with the intention of actually doing some damage. The guys growing up smaller than their peers are the ones who had to develop a chip on their shoulder just to survive. Ideally the angry 5'8 guys turn into angry 6'1 men down the road, but it's not a necessity. It's still more likely than the 6'4 gentle giant suddenly developing a killer instinct overnight.

ya agree, I think there's also a case to be made that a low center of gravity can be a big advantage. It's a lot easier to push up than down.

And, being a good player doesn't just go away when guys stop growing when they hit whatever height. Guys like Moore I don't think are ever going to be big producers but the speed, tenacity, puck stealing and good positioning are going to make it so they have a place in the game at the highest level.

That being said you can’t build a team full of 5’9” players because teams with size will over power them. You need balance. Plus the players Dubas drafted aren’t known being pests so your point is irrelevant.

so, you can't build a team out of all 5'9" players, so even if they're good you don't want to have any?

and my point wasn't that players at 5'9" have to be pests to be good, it was that there are lots of 5'9" players who are good enough to be NHL'ers without having to be offensive stars. A 5'9" player can play anywhere in the lineup, because there are examples of that across the league.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

That being said you can’t build a team full of 5’9” players because teams with size will over power them. You need balance. Plus the players Dubas drafted aren’t known being pests so your point is irrelevant.

We were one of the biggest teams in the league last season (top 10).

Only Johnsson/Ennis/Petan/Moore were under 6 feet on this roster and Johnsson was the only one to play in the top 9 regularly. We had 12 guys (half the roster) that were 6'2" or bigger.

We have some big guys in the system currently as well in Marchment, Korshkov, Engvall, and Brazeau.

Three of those guys should be pushing for roster spots shortly. I'm okay with this draft if we took the best player available over irrelevant stuff like height. Especially when we're already big enough at the NHL level.

 

[TML1967]

Anyone got updates from development camp?

 

[Ricky Bobby]

It wouldn't what player I name because it's an opinion. But I know this smaller player are boom or bust picks. Players drafted 6'1" can find a roll in the bottom 6 or pairings as ginders. How many 5'9" grinders do you see in the NHL? Not every player drafted will play in your top six or top pair but drafting below average puts limits roles they could play in the NHL. Every pick shouldn't be boom or bust!!

One boom pick like Point, our Johnsson, Arvidson, Guentzel, Girard, Kase, etc. is significantly more valuable than a bunch of 4th liners with size. All of these guys were drafted in recent years outside the top 45. Some much later.

Majority of great picks after the first round for a number of years now have been undersized guys. Especially when it comes to forwards. We didn't start drafting 53.

3 of our top 4 picks were forwards. All undersized guys but guys who produced extremely well for their given draft slot.

Our first D in Kokkoken is an awesome pick to take a chance on and he isn't that undersized.

Vast majority of players drafted in the slots we were taking them won't even get an NHL game. Boom or bust all day long. Safe picks in the slots we drafted in leads to players who amount to nothing.

 

[supermann_98]

honestly, some of the best grinders in the league are 5'9" or there abouts - Marchand, Gallagher are top of the list, Leipsic was considered to be the best pure-pest prospect in hockey at one time ("the most annoying prospect in hockey"), Max Domi, Conor Garland is carving himself out a 4th line role with great positive possession impact, Conor Sheary is a good 3rd liner, Cagiulla is as well, Kerfoot is at least that and might be better, Malgin's been good in a bottom 6 role, Fiala's certainly carving himself out a career despite not hitting his offensive projections, have a look at Arvidsson's possession numbers and try to say with a straight face that he needs to score to be an NHL'er, Jesper Bratt is sticking in the NHL even without producing, I believe Komarov was 5'10" at draft time and turned out to be a relative thug by NHL standards, Zucarello is a possession monster at 5'8", Konecny is a terrific middle 6 player, Labanc was 5'10" at draft time and is a very good player even when he's not scoring, Schwartz is a great possession player, Fabbri is a player when he's healthy, Johnson & Point are NHL'ers without scoring, Marchessault is in the NHL without his scoring, Perreault is a possession beast, etc.

Plus you just watched a season where Johnsson emerged as a good middle 6 player who is possession dominant, and you saw all of Moore, Ennis & Petan play well in 4th line roles

I also omitted the TONS of guys that are 5'11" and/or less than 185lbs, and a lot of those were 5'9" or 5'10" when they were drafted

Lots of good smaller players there but not one is a Dman. Dubas doesn't seem to look at the players position when he chooses little guys and there are maybe 5 or 6 good Dmen smaller than 5-11 and he chooses one every draft thinking they're gonna maybe be the next Spurgeon or Krug

 

[Fogelhund]

Lots of good smaller players there but not one is a Dman. Dubas doesn't seem to look at the players position when he chooses little guys and there are maybe 5 or 6 good Dmen smaller than 5-11 and he chooses one every draft thinking they're gonna maybe be the next Spurgeon or Krug

You seem to contradict your own post.

There is not one good small Dman... then you list Spurgeon and Krug....

Orlov, Gotisbehere, Vatanen, Stralman, Krug, Ellis, Honka, Tyson Barrie, Spurgeon, Goligoski are all decent D, below 6'.

If there is a trend towards more speed, puck movement... then it is probable that you will see smaller players, in all positions succeed... Of course we are talking "smaller" players, but then there are successful 6'0 sub 200 lb players on D, and 5'11" 210lb guys... is a 210 lb guy small??

The other thing is, development bias... you look through all the lower levels, and it's often the smaller skilled guys on Forward, and bigger guys on D... it's just the bias of coaching at entry levels of the sport.

Are guys who are 190 and 200 lbs, at 18 years old small?

 

[deletethis]

There were 23 defensemen under 6' who played more than 40 games in the NHL last season. That's less than 1 per team. This doesn't seem like a winning strategy to concentrate on developing this subset of the talent pool almost exclusively.

 

[Pyromaniac]

That being said you can’t build a team full of 5’9” players because teams with size will over power them. You need balance. Plus the players Dubas drafted aren’t known being pests so your point is irrelevant.

I don't disagree that size is an important factor to consider when constructing a team. I just don't think you can approach the draft with that mindset. I think our 2016 draft class is a great example of that.

 

[RoadWarrior]

There were 23 defensemen under 6' who played more than 40 games in the NHL last season. That's less than 1 per team. This doesn't seem like a winning strategy to concentrate on developing this subset of the talent pool almost exclusively.

The bigger guys who can skate are taken early in the first two rounds. By the time the leafs picked at 53 they were mostly gone. Robertson was a first round talent who fell for some reason. Probably his height. Him and Kokkonen (who is 200lbs) were good picks where they were selected.

There weren’t many d men over 6’5 either.

There’s too much obsession over height in general.

 

[Pyromaniac]

There were 23 defensemen under 6' who played more than 40 games in the NHL last season. That's less than 1 per team. This doesn't seem like a winning strategy to concentrate on developing this subset of the talent pool almost exclusively.

I think we all know that D under 6' are an anomaly in the NHL. The more important question is whether this is a growing trend. I would love to look at the data for that and what it projects for the future. I would wager that number keeps growing.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Lots of good smaller players there but not one is a Dman. Dubas doesn't seem to look at the players position when he chooses little guys and there are maybe 5 or 6 good Dmen smaller than 5-11 and he chooses one every draft thinking they're gonna maybe be the next Spurgeon or Krug

I just chose forwards because of the context, there are some very good dmen in the same height range: Ellis, Mete, Barrie, Girard, Hughes, Enstrom, Stetcher, Russell, Butcher, Vatanen and there's other guys who are bit part players like Hunt, Biega, Hicketts, etc

there's also tons of good ones that are 5'11", so a little growth spurt puts them towards the middle of the bellcurve for NHL height. There are also some of those in the 5'11" range like Dermott who are bulls, the lower center of gravity in corner battles can be a good thing

the group is bigger than you think, and it seems to be growing as the stigma of being shorter goes away

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think we all know that D under 6' are an anomaly in the NHL. The more important question is whether this is a growing trend. I would love to look at the data for that and what it projects for the future. I would wager that number keeps growing.

The other thing to note is that what is the likelihood that a 17/18 year old still grows another inch or two? I would say there is a pretty solid chance. So suddenly those 5'11" guys are 6'0" or 6'1" with 190-200 lbs bodies that will likely continue to develop. Suddenly not that small.

Koster is always going to be small, but if he can grow to 5'11" and maybe gets to 190 (he's 172 now), then with his kind of skill, he should be large enough to be effective in the NHL. His lack of size didn't stop him from playing a shutdown role against quality competition and becoming one of the top USHS defensemen last year.

 

[Gary Nylund]

There’s too much obsession over height in general.

And this is demonstrated every year with hundreds of posts from people complaining about this imaginary problem. So boring but what are you gonna do?

 

[Fogelhund]

There were 23 defensemen under 6' who played more than 40 games in the NHL last season. That's less than 1 per team. This doesn't seem like a winning strategy to concentrate on developing this subset of the talent pool almost exclusively.

It isn't a strategy... it's just the way things worked out this year. Best player available and all.... based upon your rankings. Dubas has picked guys 6' and up in the past, signed UFA 6' + and traded for 6' + D.... It's not a thing... it just happened that way this year.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The other thing to note is that what is the likelihood that a 17/18 year old still grows another inch or two? I would say there is a pretty solid chance. So suddenly those 5'11" guys are 6'0" or 6'1" with 190-200 lbs bodies that will likely continue to develop. Suddenly not that small.

Koster is always going to be small, but if he can grow to 5'11" and maybe gets to 190 (he's 172 now), then with his kind of skill, he should be large enough to be effective in the NHL. His lack of size didn't stop him from playing a shutdown role against quality competition and becoming one of the top USHS defensemen last year.

To follow up, Dermott has grown from 5'11" to over 6' now. He's now something like 6'0", 205 lbs. I don't think anyone is saying he is small anymore.

Kalle Loponen will end up a similar size by his prime. I really question his defensive IQ but I think a RD Dermott is what you hope out of him. He's another shot at Connor Carrick but with more size to throw around.

Kokkonen will be 6'0"/6'1", 210 lbs or something and I have no idea how people will think that is small.

 

[Todd03]

So I'm hoping the leafs could and should sign five or six
players from this camp to some type of contract with the team.
(Development camp).

 

[deletethis]

I think we all know that D under 6' are an anomaly in the NHL. The more important question is whether this is a growing trend. I would love to look at the data for that and what it projects for the future. I would wager that number keeps growing.

40 or more games for under 6' defensemen:

18/19: 23
17/18: 29
16/17: 22
15/16: 25
14/15: 26
13/14: 28
12/13: 16 (shortened season)
11/12: 29
10/11: 27
09/10: 30
08/09: 29
07/08: 29
06/07: 24
05/06: 24

 

[The Podium]

It wouldn't what player I name because it's an opinion. But I know this smaller player are boom or bust picks. Players drafted 6'1" can find a roll in the bottom 6 or pairings as ginders. How many 5'9" grinders do you see in the NHL? Not every player drafted will play in your top six or top pair but drafting below average puts limits roles they could play in the NHL. Every pick shouldn't be boom or bust!!

Players drafted late in the draft generally will have a fundamental flaw. They can’t skate, they lack IQ, they have attitude issues or they lack size.

Generally, a player lacking size but strong is every other category is more likely to be an NHL regular than a player with size who can’t skate for example.

Sure I wish every one of our picks could be 6’5” plus, but to be had in the draft as late as we were picking they would have another fundamental flaw that would like cause them to bust.

The one exception I can remember is Jamie Benn, the complete package who committed to baseball before being drafted by the Stars late.

The idea is to get a return on investment for each pick you make, pick those most likely to be a regular. Build a stable of NHL ready prospects that can then be used as currency to fill any current need (admittedly difficult).

 

[4thline]

40 or more games for under 6' defensemen:

18/19: 23
17/18: 29
16/17: 22
15/16: 25
14/15: 26
13/14: 28
12/13: 16 (shortened season)
11/12: 29
10/11: 27
09/10: 30
08/09: 29
07/08: 29
06/07: 24
05/06: 24

And how many self reported "6'0" guys that are using their own tapes giving the hometown inch or two?

 

[Randy Randerson]

on the lighter side: Replacement ECHL trophy got broken at a Newfie strip club

 

[Orfieus]

And how many self reported "6'0" guys that are using their own tapes giving the hometown inch or two?

 

[deletethis]

And how many self reported "6'0" guys that are using their own tapes giving the hometown inch or two?

Their height, weight, reach, etc. are measured at the NHL draft combine every year. This isn't 20-30 years ago.