Oh God, already the armchair analysis of how LA is not good
When you say "not good for #7" what do you mean? A quick search shows that the only #7 forward to make his team in the first season after the draft (for more than a few games) since 2000 is Jeff Skinner.
Kominsarek, Lupul, Opposes, Voracek, Wilson, Kadri and Scheifle all played a season elsewhere after the draft, and then when they made the show all basically has mid 30 point seasons.
Is Andersson really "not good" or do you have unrealistic expectations?
I think the problem is that we haven't had a high pick in a while. I think its good that we keep expectations in shack, because we are certainly also often guilty of hyping kids too much.
But it doesn't look unlikely that only 2 kids from this years draft will play in the NHL this season, Hischer and Patrick. The two best picks playing for the worst teams. Since 2000, 1 of 16 seventh overall picks played instantly in the NHL, but our guy had a horrible camp and was an embarrassment because he didn't make it? I don't know every word that has been said, but to me at most I've heard people "flirting" with the idea of Lias playing instantly, while still in most cases saying that even if he where to be ready, it would still probably be best to return him.
To me that just say more about some posters expectations and not realistic evaluations made in the right context. But I assume that its only a natural side effect of the fact that we haven't had any 1st round picks in a while, and certainly no high picks.
The starting point when evaluating a 1st round pick must be:
-If you go back and look at drafts not only when the players just got into the league, or not, but when their careers are done, you see that at least 50 percent of the 1st round picks never even become meaningful contributors.
And this has actually very little to do with range, the only exception really is the very good absolute top picks. McD, AO, Malkin, Crosby and co. They don't bust often. But there are plenty of top 10 picks busting, the quantity of kids filling that criteria is actually a bit scary.
-Its very rare that 18 y/o's come in and contribute right away. Very rare. It is not an exaggeration to claim that any expectations of a top 5-10 pick to come in and contribute directly is completely unrealistic. As a matter of fact, this also applies on year 2. Its unrealistic to expect a kid to contribute his 2nd year too looking at facts. 21-23 is where you can expect more, normally.
-There are very few top players being picked in a 1st round. And with 30 teams in the league, the average top 2-3 player per team isn't even that great. The second highest scoring forward on a team in the NHL scores around 55 pts on average.
If we assume that a top forward has a 10 year career, 2 per team, that is 60 in the NHL on average. 6 per year with a 10 year career. A solid normal 1st round should have 4-5 forwards who scores up towards 50 pts. The top 2 forwards often does well. That leaves 2-3 forwards of the remaining 29 picks...
IN THIS CONTEXT, Lias is a -- good -- pick if he can come in and contribute on par with like a JT Miller. You could probably label it a very good pick. Would it sting if Mittlestad or someone becomes a Tarasenko II for another team? Sure. But the NHL draft is a crap shot, and extremely few picks get it right. We can't be talking about more than a few odd percent actually picking the "best" player at a certain position. And the odds of getting someone that doesn't contribute much if any at all isn't that low either.
Lias has potential to become better than that, but like I've said from the get go, it probably requires that he can add another step in his skating.
This is what I wrote on him during the WJSS, and I still stand by it:
Overall, I like the pick. There is no doubt that he both have very high potential as well as a lot of intangibles to use a word that maybe got a bit of a bad rep.
I can't create gif's, but the play where he draw a penalty in the 1st shows how much skill he has. He turned up ice with the puck in his own end but faced really heavy pressure and turned back with the puck, lost the forechecker with a deke, then skated around two more forecheckers before he skated up ice before being tripped by one of the forwards he left behind.
...
The key for his further development is definitely to be able to add a little bit more explosiveness and intensity in his skating. He skates really well, but he isn't always displaying blazing speed. I hope he might have that in him, in that case he could -- definitely -- become a top 15-20 No 1 center in this league. If he doesn't quite manage to become that much more explosive, his offensive potential might be more in the 40-50 pts mold....
Just saying, there is a difference between WJSS and a NYR Camp. I am not ruling out that Lias is in the mix for a top 9 spot after camp, but it's not a given either. He is so good when the game slows down a bit, he gets control of the puck. ... But when the play is heading up and down the ice he doesn't stand out as much.