2017 Offseason Thread: Changes Incoming 2.0
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Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
I seem to recall a laundry list of excuses being made for the coach and GM who put the team in the position they've been in: two out of three seasons of no playoffs, with a single playoff game won in a quick exit in between.
But I guess those results were satisfactory for you. Funny how the people you label as pessimists (or realists when compared to your clouded thoughts) were proven to be right.
a laundry list of excuses from whom? who is saying the results were satisfactory? lets go back to my first question: what are things as they really are? is this team a contender or is it a dumpster fire in need of a complete rebuild like some people are so sure of?
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
You know there were a number of excuses, and I'll provide that list for you:
- Kopitar must be playing hurt
- Injuries to Quick, Gaborik and Toffoli
- Many new faces in the lineup
- Goaltending was hurting the team (when Budaj was the least of their concerns)
- Exhaustion due to the World Cup
- The schedule
- Bad luck (i.e. hitting posts and unfortunate bounces)
- Inexperienced blueline
- They outshot opponents but couldn't find a way to score
- Sutter is pushing them too hard
We heard those excuses repeatedly, not only from these forums but Jim Fox spouted them during broadcasts as well.
I'm of the opinion that the team is neither a contender nor dumpster fire. They're a middling team that should be good enough to make the playoffs but could also be bad enough to miss them. Hence the return to the black hole that many of us were fretting, but at some point it was bound to happen.
That's what really is the reality of the current state of the team. There's no telltale sign that things will get better until we see some movement and transactions, which I'm sure we'll see take place the closer we approach the expansion draft, entry draft, and free agency.
KingsFan7824
Registered User
- Dec 4, 2003
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At some point the Kings were going to be old and trending down. They weren't going to be a young and cheap Cup contender in perpetuity. No matter what Lombardi promised, no matter what Detroit managed to do, no matter what the Yankees did, and no matter how many always think 2 years ahead moves they made.
At some point you have to pay guys because every other team wants young productive players on their ELC's too.
At some point you have to pay guys because every other team wants young productive players on their ELC's too.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
- 32,583
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Or, at some point, like the end of the 2015 season, you recognize the run is over and you act and behave accordingly. That way the organization doesn't flounder around for 4 or 5 years pretending the roster is built for contention when it isn't.
There is no shame in that, it's actually being smart.
Not sure how wanting young, productive players on ELCs means you have to pay guys like Gaborik and Brown, and then hand Kopitar and 8-year deal. What should happen is you ask them to sign reasonable deals, and if they won't, you trade them, or in Gaborik's case let them leave.
precisely what I was looking for. cant say I disagree with much though I do think Kopi was hurt, but that doesnt excuse his season. thanks for the honest, objective reply
WHOneedsSOX
Registered User
- Mar 1, 2015
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Realistically a successful/unsuccessful season shouldn't be cup or bust. That's just not going to happen unless they get really lucky. I'd say a successful season for the Kings would be making it to the 2nd round. Not that that's any good but that's just realistic to me especially the teams they'll be battling for playoff spots the next few years. Edmonton will be a lock for the playoffs as long as McDavid plays 75% of the season. Calgary will be good if they can find a goalie. Anaheim is always there. San Jose might be trending down so the Kings will likely battle them for a playoff spot.
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The Tikkanen
Pest
Did he have any surgery this offseason? Cause this is hockey, you're not hurt unless you need surgery and even then you're day to day. And injury didn't seem to bother Joe Thornton, playing with and putting up points with 2 torn ligaments in his knee. As it stands I'd say Kopitar took the money and ran last season but by the looks of his point totals he didn't do any running at all. It's time to step it up this offseason and start representing the contract you signed and the C on your chest-no excuses.
KingsFan7824
Registered User
- Dec 4, 2003
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Did you really think the run was over at the end of the 2015 season? Like clear as day done, no question about it, get rid of anyone you can? I mean, the condensed 3 season run was over, but in terms of the team being in contention?
It's not a matter of shame. There's no shame in the team thinking it's still a contender either. It would be smart to get the rebuilding underway. The even smarter move was to start that in June of 2014, not 2015. Kopitar was never going to have more value than he had after 13-14. Still a great contract for a few years, coming off the Cup. Trade him then, why wait until 2015? As we saw, that would've been a year too late.
You have great theories, and I'm going to guess most fans would agree with them. I do. In theory, yes, this is exactly what GM's should do. We've been over this already, but nobody is giving you as much as you want for Kopitar in June of 2015. You're not getting Johansen, because at the time, why is Columbus trading him for an older player that needs to be signed to a bigger deal? You're not getting the top young prospect a team has, because with Kopitar's contract coming up, they're going to need productive young players on their ELC's. Plus the team trading for Kopitar probably isn't going to be a bad team with the best prospects in the league.
Every GM wants young players of their ELC's. Players have guaranteed contracts. Teams don't let their players walk. The smart thing isn't always possible when there are 29 other teams in the league and they all think the same way you do because the cap makes everyone relatively the same.
The smart move was to trade Doughty last June. Still young, still signed for a couple years, coming off the Norris. His value is not getting better. They missed their chance to get the absolute most for that asset. Should have traded Brown and Quick after 2012. Their value has only gone down since. Imagine what Lombardi could've gotten for those two at the 2012 draft? All 3 of those would've been the smart thing to do. Trade Williams in June 2014 too. He wasn't going to win another Conn Smythe. Trade Muzzin after 2014. He hasn't been better since. Martinez certainly should've been gone after the Chicago and NY goals. The entire team should've been dismantled days after that insane Cup win. Waiting until the end of the 2015 season is floundering and pretending that they weren't down 0-3, and that it didn't take winning three Game 7's to get to the Final. That's not a contender. A true contender blows through each round like they did in 2012, not hang on by a thread.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Not sure if I missed it elsewhere in the thread but a conversation with Stevens. Listening now:
https://lakingsinsider.com/2017/05/23/audio-john-stevens-joins-kings-men-podcast/
https://lakingsinsider.com/2017/05/23/audio-john-stevens-joins-kings-men-podcast/
AlphaBravo
Registered User
If people on this board were actual GMs they would follow the following game plan. Develop team through draft, after a few years identify which players are the best and hold the most value, trade said players for more draft picks since their value wont be higher again, use draft picks to acquire top prospects, wait until prospects develop into valuable players, trade said players for top draft picks, develop those players from the draft, wait until value high, and trade again.
If anyone thinks the Kings should have undergone a rebuild the year after the 2014 win, they need to get their head checked. How do you think that conversation would go between DL and the ownership group?
Dean: Hi this is Dean, incredible how we won the cup two times out of three years isn't it?
Owner: Sure is Dean. Looks like we have most of the team in tact, how great is that? We can go on another run next year!
Dean: Umm, about that. I was actually thinking its time to rebuild the team. Looks like we have some marketable players that we can use for draft picks, which we can use to draft young players that may someday be just as good.
Owner: *scratches head in confusion*
If anyone thinks the Kings should have undergone a rebuild the year after the 2014 win, they need to get their head checked. How do you think that conversation would go between DL and the ownership group?
Dean: Hi this is Dean, incredible how we won the cup two times out of three years isn't it?
Owner: Sure is Dean. Looks like we have most of the team in tact, how great is that? We can go on another run next year!
Dean: Umm, about that. I was actually thinking its time to rebuild the team. Looks like we have some marketable players that we can use for draft picks, which we can use to draft young players that may someday be just as good.
Owner: *scratches head in confusion*
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
- 32,583
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Once again, you provide a strawman BS argument, and misrepresent what myself and people who share my views are saying.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
Exactly!
For all the issues we talk about like Voynov, Richards, Brown, Gaborik, Sutter etc. the
The biggest reason the Kings are where they are right now is the lack of success at the draft table, especially in regards to homeruns.
The change in draft strategy is the thing I am most excited about with the management change.
SettlementRichie10
Registered User
- May 6, 2012
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bland
Registered User
- Jul 1, 2004
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There is a chasm between "taking the team apart" and making intelligent, forward thinking decisions. Lombardi's big crime was hubris. He believed in his team so much that not only did he not prepare for the flexibility needed in event of failure, he doubled down on it and made it damn near impossible to avoid.
That possibility that the window would close prematurely was very easy to predict in 2015, not just because of missing the playoffs, but because of the sheer number of longterm contract extensions that guaranteed roster stagnation. I don't care how good the message is, you need fresh blood to come in and liven up not only the room, but different players to add different wrinkles to the same system.
It was very easy to see that the failure of 2015 wasn't just due to physical exhaustion, but also apathy. Continued failure was the most likely outcome. And by failure, I don't mean suddenly becoming a lottery team overnight, but in terms of Cup contention ending. So when the Brown extension was offered, some thought it was too damn long for a player who you would have already traded if Nash decided to waive. Signing Gaborik was a major mistake and argued against by the same folks for the same reasons. Too much time for a player known to lose focus who couldn't remain healthy that took him too late into his career
The Lucic deal was probably the worst trade in the history of the franchise. It was known from day 1 that he could never be re-signed, only Lombardi's hubris lead him to think it was possible. That trade strip-mined an already desolate asset list.
That was why so many argued so strongly against Kopitar's ridiculous extension. It was suicide. He HAD to be traded in order to salvage the next half decade from the black hole. He would never be worth that money in years 5-8, and at least the first two would be worthless during a rebuild/retool, whatever you want to call it, because the team clearly can't challenge now. It was so easy to see, but Dean was sure he knew better. He didn't, he was wrong, it cost the team dearly now and for the next few seasons, and it cost him his job.
It was always the most likely outcome, and some of us explained why we thought so thoroughly in 2015.
Reclamation Project
Cut It All Right In Two
- Jul 6, 2011
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Herby
How could Blake have known?
It was an awful trade, and it still shocks me some on here defend it, but let's be honest here, there have been way worse trades in Kings history.
The rest of your post is pretty spot on though, and it's something that a lot of people had trouble differentiating between blowing it up and making smart moves. Some argued that buying out Richards and letting Greene walk was "blowing up the cup winning team"
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Had a feeling I was going to need to qualify my statement. I stand by it, but let's amend it to "no GM with a GM job even begins to rebuild/retool after 2015" because that was the suggestion. Forward thinking moves are good, but I combed through some 2015 offseason threads for gems yesterday and the most drastic changes people asked for were "Buy out Richards" and "trade Brown." So no, I don't think many of the posters here saying "I told you so" get to pretend they had a crystal ball because literally no post I've seen said to do as much.
2015 looked like a giant fluke, not a flawed roster. We all knew there would be a downturn at some point with the vet status of our team--just like you're saying there's a chasm between RIP IT APART and let's make some smart moves, there's a chasm between believing in what you have and bury-your-head-in-the-sand homerism. Most posters believed 2015 was a blip because of the perfect storm it took to hold us down. But if you're a GM in just about any sport, and your team just went Cup-WCF-Cup-barely miss playoffs due to crazy happenings, you're not even considering dismantling, you're considering stretching success out for another two years. I'll STILL defend Lombardi for the "why" of his moves through at least the beginning of 2016.
To be fair it sounded like DL was going to change his drafting strategy too. Well more so that he was done dealing picks away.
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