2017 Offseason Thread: Changes Incoming 2.0

[deeshamrock]

There is a chasm between "taking the team apart" and making intelligent, forward thinking decisions. Lombardi's big crime was hubris. He believed in his team so much that not only did he not prepare for the flexibility needed in event of failure, he doubled down on it and made it damn near impossible to avoid.

That possibility that the window would close prematurely was very easy to predict in 2015, not just because of missing the playoffs, but because of the sheer number of longterm contract extensions that guaranteed roster stagnation. I don't care how good the message is, you need fresh blood to come in and liven up not only the room, but different players to add different wrinkles to the same system.

It was very easy to see that the failure of 2015 wasn't just due to physical exhaustion, but also apathy. Continued failure was the most likely outcome. And by failure, I don't mean suddenly becoming a lottery team overnight, but in terms of Cup contention ending. So when the Brown extension was offered, some thought it was too damn long for a player who you would have already traded if Nash decided to waive. Signing Gaborik was a major mistake and argued against by the same folks for the same reasons. Too much time for a player known to lose focus who couldn't remain healthy that took him too late into his career

The Lucic deal was probably the worst trade in the history of the franchise. It was known from day 1 that he could never be re-signed, only Lombardi's hubris lead him to think it was possible. That trade strip-mined an already desolate asset list.

That was why so many argued so strongly against Kopitar's ridiculous extension. It was suicide. He HAD to be traded in order to salvage the next half decade from the black hole. He would never be worth that money in years 5-8, and at least the first two would be worthless during a rebuild/retool, whatever you want to call it, because the team clearly can't challenge now. It was so easy to see, but Dean was sure he knew better. He didn't, he was wrong, it cost the team dearly now and for the next few seasons, and it cost him his job.

It was always the most likely outcome, and some of us explained why we thought so thoroughly in 2015.

Yes there is. Great statement, entire post was well thought out and spot on.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

I've hated the Gabo/Kopitar contracts since day one they were signed.

Especially Gaborik's, Dean only did a good job in getting Gabo lower on that cap hit, but he paid for it in years.

Gabo was a player Lombardi could have walked away from.

Put a 4 year deal on the table, stick to it, Gabo says (No) walk away.

Obvious, Dean Lombardi couldn't with Kopitar (Different)

But Gabo, He had so many red flags, you would have been justified being cautious, or simply walking away.

Seven year deal to a 30+ year old, injury riddled player.

Which goes back to Mike Richards. Kings still had Richards at his full $5.75 million cap hit in 2014-15, $3.2 million in 2015-16, and then finally was down to $1.57 million in 2016-17. Obviously that's a ton of cap space. Gaborik could have and should have been offered $6-7 million over 4 years which would have been possible if not for the Kings having Richards still on the books.

 

[YP44]

Which goes back to Mike Richards. Kings still had Richards at his full $5.75 million cap hit in 2014-15, $3.2 million in 2015-16, and then finally was down to $1.57 million in 2016-17. Obviously that's a ton of cap space. Gaborik could have and should have been offered $6-7 million over 4 years which would have been possible if not for the Kings having Richards still on the books.

Spot on. I was not a fan of the Gaborik deal but I at least understood why the term was there. It was to lower the cap hit to try and keep the window open.

I maybe very wishful in hoping he has some sort of bounce back that allows LA to dump his contract to a cap floor team with a very small sweetener, but that's my hope for Gaborik.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

Spot on. I was not a fan of the Gaborik deal but I at least understood why the term was there. It was to lower the cap hit to try and keep the window open.

I maybe very wishful in hoping he has some sort of bounce back that allows LA to dump his contract to a cap floor team with a very small sweetener, but that's my hope for Gaborik.

I get that Gaborik was seemingly a great fit next to Kopitar, the Kings badly needed scoring, a $4.875 million cap hit for a 20-25 goal scorer isn't bad, and the free agent market was really weak but it's the years and the type of player Gaborik is that kills the deal. A guy who can be relied on to play 60 games a season isn't worth 7 years.

I think Gaborik will be gone from the Kings by 2019 but that's still a couple years away. By then the buyout cap hit won't be as bad (even though it still is bad) and some team trying to reach the cap floor will probably take him. Or the Kings could get lucky and he'll retire in a couple years.

Someone on LAKI mentioned the Kings should've signed Iginla instead in 2014. Makes a ton of sense. 3 years at a cap hit of $5.33 million. Think he wouldn't have jumped at a chance to play for the defending champ and also Darryl Sutter? All he did was score 29, 22, and 14 goals over those 3 years while playing 82, 82, and 80 games.

 

[kings11]

agreed. I would also like what Claque is brining to the table.

Add Amadio to this short list as well... kid posted similar number to Toffoli and Pearson at the same age in the AHL but Amadio is just a better all around player at the same age...

 

[BallPointHammer]

Well, what's done is done. I think the Kings will have a bounce back season and at least make the playoffs. But, the theme for the next two years must be Drew Doughty. He is the linchpin to the franchise's future. I hope Rob Blake's plan is thorough, comprehensive and flexible enough to make that one right decision at exactly the right moment. And, with all due respect to Dean Lombardi, I hope he doesn't make the same mistakes.

 

[kings11]

So now that we've ripped apart DL and Co for all the bad moves they made and we've thoroughly expressed our opinions on everything else from draft picks to Ontario to the ugly jerseys somebody posted a few days back......
Let me take a swing at being honest in assessing this team for the upcoming season..production wise and upcoming talent wise, also would like you guys to comment/correct me were I'm wrong
CENTERS
Name Goals Assists Points
Anze Kopitar... 24 - 49 - 73
Jeff Carter... 35 - 35 - 70
Nic Dowd... 10 - 20 - 30
Trevor Lewis... 10 - 15 - 25

Wingers
Tyler Toffoli... 33 - 29 - 62
Tanner Pearson... 25 - 27 - 52
Dustin Brown... 18 - 26 - 44
Marian Gaborik... 15 - 22 - 37
Adrian Kempe... 10 - 15 - 25
Jordan Nolan... 7 - 10 - 17
Jonny Brodzinski... 10 - 15 - 25

Defensemen
Drew Doughty... 15 - 40 - 55
Jake Muzzin... 12 - 25 - 37
Alec Martinez... 10 - 30 - 40
Derek Forbort... 5 - 20 - 25
Paul LaDue... 6 - 28 - 34
Kevin Gravel... 5 - 15 - 20
Brayden McNabb... 3 - 15 - 18

Granted we still don't know who gets drafted by LVGK, assuming CJS implements a system with more emphasis on offense like his Philly days I would assume the numbers posted above for each player are not only attainable but realistic and reasonable..... But what type of team is that??? a playoffs 1st round and bounce team? 2nd round and bounce team??

 

[BigKing]

Add Amadio to this short list as well... kid posted similar number to Toffoli and Pearson at the same age in the AHL but Amadio is just a better all around player at the same age...

Nowhere near similar numbers to Toffoli.

 

[KingsFan7824]

No, I essentially said get Kopitar to sign a reasonable deal or trade him.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1886931&highlight=offseason

Absolutely no benefit to next year's team, which is what Lombardi should be concerned with.

Then why would you waste cap dollars on a player (Richards) that is unable to contribute to winning a Stanley Cup when the Kings have the talent to be contenders for the next 3 seasons?

The reality of the situation is that the Kings window is open for approximately 3 years.

Those are some of your quotes on the first couple pages of that thread from back in late April of 2015. Lombardi should be concerned with the 15-16 season? That sounds a little like short term thinking.

I'm not talking about Kopitar or any other players. I'm saying you weren't saying the Kings were done as contenders at the end of the 2015 season. Most, if not all of us weren't. I know I didn't. I was on board with Lombardi's keep the band together philosophy. To say that Lombardi should've seen the obvious back then, made the smart moves at the time, and plan for the future that was coming quicker than anyone would think, is revisionist history. There were different opinions about various players, but nobody was saying it was all over after 14-15.

All I'm saying is that nobody knows the future, and we're all guessing as to what should or shouldn't be done, because of what can or can't happen. We simply don't know. Maybe LaDue is a legit top 4 guy next year. Maybe Brodzinski scores 25 goals, and adds another 9 in the playoffs. Maybe Kempe throws in 40+ points. Only time can tell.

I will leave you to interpret what it means. It's just as bland said in one of his posts.,

It's a process, and there is a chasm between making smart moves and tearing the whole thing down.

Whenever someone says, "The Kings should see what this guy would return in a trade.", the usual suspects come in and respond with "Might as well trade these 3 or 4 players too then."

So, the question this summer should be, if the Kings aren't contenders (they aren't) should they let a valuable asset like Jeff Carter decline further in value while Luc screws around trying to convince us this roster can contend.

Here's another quote from back in late April of 2015:

If the Kings aren't contenders for the next 2 or 3 seasons as you hypothesize, may as well move Kopitar and Quick now and move on to the business of rebuilding.

That's not saying the Kings are done as contenders.

Should they trade Carter? Yeah, probably. That is the smart move. I doubt anyone is going to give you the 23 or 24 year old established and cheap equivalent of a 32 year old Jeff Carter though, so if you're trading him, you might as well trade anyone you can. Martinez, Muzzin, Pearson, Toffoli, and Doughty too. The remaining 4 long term contracts are a lost cause. Get as many prospects and picks as you can for those 6 guys, get some top 5 picks in the next few drafts, build for 5 years from now after Brown and Gaborik are free and clear, and hope you have a young foundation to prop up whatever is left of Kopitar and Quick for a year or two until the next core is ready to take over completely by like 2025.

All of that would be the smart thing to do after this brutally honest 16-17 season, when it's clear that Robitaille will be publically, and incompetently, lying to himself and everyone else about the state of this franchise for years to come. Of course, Robitaille and Blake aren't that smart, so, it's back to the dark ages for the Kings, probably no matter what moves they make.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

So now that we've ripped apart DL and Co for all the bad moves they made and we've thoroughly expressed our opinions on everything else from draft picks to Ontario to the ugly jerseys somebody posted a few days back......
Let me take a swing at being honest in assessing this team for the upcoming season..production wise and upcoming talent wise, also would like you guys to comment/correct me were I'm wrong
CENTERS
Name Goals Assists Points
Anze Kopitar... 24 - 49 - 73
Jeff Carter... 35 - 35 - 70
Nic Dowd... 10 - 20 - 30
Trevor Lewis... 10 - 15 - 25

Wingers
Tyler Toffoli... 33 - 29 - 62
Tanner Pearson... 25 - 27 - 52
Dustin Brown... 18 - 26 - 44
Marian Gaborik... 15 - 22 - 37
Adrian Kempe... 10 - 15 - 25
Jordan Nolan... 7 - 10 - 17
Jonny Brodzinski... 10 - 15 - 25

Defensemen
Drew Doughty... 15 - 40 - 55
Jake Muzzin... 12 - 25 - 37
Alec Martinez... 10 - 30 - 40
Derek Forbort... 5 - 20 - 25
Paul LaDue... 6 - 28 - 34
Kevin Gravel... 5 - 15 - 20
Brayden McNabb... 3 - 15 - 18

Granted we still don't know who gets drafted by LVGK, assuming CJS implements a system with more emphasis on offense like his Philly days I would assume the numbers posted above for each player are not only attainable but realistic and reasonable..... But what type of team is that??? a playoffs 1st round and bounce team? 2nd round and bounce team??

That's an awful lot of goals. 253 total which would've put them 4th in the NHL this season which would also be 54 more than they scored this season. I doubt Sutter is a 54 goal difference.

 

[Kingspiracy]

Is iggy coming back?

 

[BigKing]

Lombardi's big crime was hubris.

Hubris was the thesis of my postmortem of the 2015 season, right on down to these guys thinking they could just strut through Wet Republic security with drugs on them. Sorry guys: you didn't bring the Cup with you this year so you go through normal security like everyone else.

"We can just flip the switch at the end of the year and be good to go." Well...95 points wasn't enough so you blew it. The way they won in 2014 was so insane that I can't blame anyone for having hubris set in.

Problem was that hubris cost them a chance in 2015 and it should of been realized by Lombardi. Instead, he doubled down as he was still too confident. Makes the Lucic trade. Quite honestly, I think he thought he could sign him because he thought they would possibly win the Cup (thought Voynov would be back), like he'll give a discount because Lucic will love it so much.

Wrong again.

He had the Midas touch and didn't realize he had lost it until he already did too much damage.

 

[kings11]

Nowhere near similar numbers to Toffoli.

Point total were actually somewhat similar between all 3 BK, TT(28-23-51) is a sniper and go to guy on that team while MA(16-25-41) is a two way player who was a handed a huge amount of responsibility..

 

[kings11]

That's an awful lot of goals. 253 total which would've put them 4th in the NHL this season which would also be 54 more than they scored this season. I doubt Sutter is a 54 goal difference.

Between Kopitar and Toffoli we could see a 20-25 goal improvement...
Kempe, Brodzinki and Dowd are likely 10 goal guys, with Brown likely inching closer to 20 than 10...

So its a pretty decent guess give or take 15 goals..... subtract Lewis(LVGK) and Nolan(Likely Traded)

Its a new offense, a new culture, bounce back seasons, and a few of the Ontario kids producing at average levels.... so lets call it a 35 goal difference...

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

Between Kopitar and Toffoli we could see a 20-25 goal improvement...
Kempe, Brodzinki and Dowd are likely 10 goal guys, with Brown likely inching closer to 20 than 10...

So its a pretty decent guess give or take 15 goals.....

Its a new offense, a new culture, bounce back seasons, and a few of the Ontario kids producing at average levels.... so lets call it a 35 goal difference...

That's still a lot of goals. I'd say 20-25 goal increase is likely which would put them around their 2015-16 total (223 for 14th in the NHL).

 

[kings11]

That's still a lot of goals. I'd say 20-25 goal increase is likely which would put them around their 2015-16 total (223 for 14th in the NHL).

Im expecting Kopitar to hit 20 goals up from 12 and Toffoli to hit 30-35 goals up from 16 which is pretty reasonable.. so that a 24 goal increase right there....

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

Im expecting Kopitar to hit 20 goals up from 12 and Toffoli to hit 30-35 goals up from 16 which is pretty reasonable.. so that a 24 goal increase right there....

That assumes everyone else hits the #'s you're giving them. I don't know if Carter will hit 35. I'd say 30 is more likely. Just because the Kings change their system doesn't mean everyone will automatically see an increase in their goal #'s.

 

[kings11]

That assumes everyone else hits the #'s you're giving them. I don't know if Carter will hit 35. I'd say 30 is more likely. Just because the Kings change their system doesn't mean everyone will automatically see an increase in their goal #'s.

you're correct in saying the system won't led to an increase from everyone but I do see Kempe seeing a ton of top 6 minutes and will likely pot 10+ goals while Brodzinski will also be put in a position to score so its up to them to take advantage of those opportunities which i think they will....

You could even break it up into tiers and the numbers are likely to be similar.... also take into account that the lines will be a lot different than when DS would place King on the top line versus a kid like Kempe....
30 Goals
Carter and Toffoli
20 Goals
Kopitar and Pearson
10 Goals
Brown, Gaborik, Kempe, Doughty, Martinez, Muzzin, Brodzinski, Dowd and Lewis(if he's still here)
5 or less Goals
LaDue, Gravel, Forbort, McNabb

point is the Kings should see a substantial boost in offense and offensive ranking.....

 

[BigKing]

Point total were actually somewhat similar between all 3 BK, TT(28-23-51) is a sniper and go to guy on that team while MA(16-25-41) is a two way player who was a handed a huge amount of responsibility..

Do you take into account games played?

Toffoli had 10 more points and 12 more goals in ten less games.

Based on Toffoli's average pace, he would of finished with 60 points and 32 goals if he played the 68 games that Amadio did this season.

19 more points and 16 more goals is nowhere near close to the same numbers.

I'm not down on Amadio at all, but he will not be a Toffoli-level scorer in the NHL.

 

[kings11]

Do you take into account games played?

Toffoli had 10 more points and 12 more goals in ten less games.

Based on Toffoli's average pace, he would of finished with 60 points and 32 goals if he played the 68 games that Amadio did this season.

19 more points and 16 more goals is nowhere near close to the same numbers.

I'm not down on Amadio at all, but he will not be a Toffoli-level scorer in the NHL.

I never said he would BK, just pointing out his production is similar to all three, although in vastly different roles for their specific teams...

Toffoli is more like Luc who got dinged for his ugly skating but could flat out score the goals although not as prolific but you know what i mean....

Amadio was actually viewed as a Stoll type player but is closer to a Mikko Koivu type all around player, I think a in prime Stoll is his floor which is pretty high...

Pearson was just plain overlooked, but is looking like a Paul Stastny type player...

Granted I'm thinking ahead but this 3 guys could potentially become our 2nd line with Carter either moving up to Kopitar's wing or as K17 has eluded to, moving JC for a top prospect and a 1st rounder..

 

[eleventy]

point is the Kings should see a substantial boost in offense and offensive ranking.....

I mean, we could really only go up from where we were last year...

 

[lumbergh]

So now that we've ripped apart DL and Co for all the bad moves they made and we've thoroughly expressed our opinions on everything else from draft picks to Ontario to the ugly jerseys somebody posted a few days back......
Let me take a swing at being honest in assessing this team for the upcoming season..production wise and upcoming talent wise, also would like you guys to comment/correct me were I'm wrong
CENTERS
Name Goals Assists Points
Anze Kopitar... 24 - 49 - 73
Jeff Carter... 35 - 35 - 70
Nic Dowd... 10 - 20 - 30
Trevor Lewis... 10 - 15 - 25

Wingers
Tyler Toffoli... 33 - 29 - 62
Tanner Pearson... 25 - 27 - 52
Dustin Brown... 18 - 26 - 44
Marian Gaborik... 15 - 22 - 37
Adrian Kempe... 10 - 15 - 25
Jordan Nolan... 7 - 10 - 17
Jonny Brodzinski... 10 - 15 - 25

Defensemen
Drew Doughty... 15 - 40 - 55
Jake Muzzin... 12 - 25 - 37
Alec Martinez... 10 - 30 - 40
Derek Forbort... 5 - 20 - 25
Paul LaDue... 6 - 28 - 34
Kevin Gravel... 5 - 15 - 20
Brayden McNabb... 3 - 15 - 18

Granted we still don't know who gets drafted by LVGK, assuming CJS implements a system with more emphasis on offense like his Philly days I would assume the numbers posted above for each player are not only attainable but realistic and reasonable..... But what type of team is that??? a playoffs 1st round and bounce team? 2nd round and bounce team??

I appreciate your optimism!

 

[lumbergh]

So now that we've ripped apart DL and Co for all the bad moves they made and we've thoroughly expressed our opinions on everything else from draft picks to Ontario to the ugly jerseys somebody posted a few days back......
Let me take a swing at being honest in assessing this team for the upcoming season..production wise and upcoming talent wise, also would like you guys to comment/correct me were I'm wrong
CENTERS
Name Goals Assists Points
Anze Kopitar... 24 - 49 - 73
Jeff Carter... 35 - 35 - 70
Nic Dowd... 10 - 20 - 30
Trevor Lewis... 10 - 15 - 25

Wingers
Tyler Toffoli... 33 - 29 - 62
Tanner Pearson... 25 - 27 - 52
Dustin Brown... 18 - 26 - 44
Marian Gaborik... 15 - 22 - 37
Adrian Kempe... 10 - 15 - 25
Jordan Nolan... 7 - 10 - 17
Jonny Brodzinski... 10 - 15 - 25

Defensemen
Drew Doughty... 15 - 40 - 55
Jake Muzzin... 12 - 25 - 37
Alec Martinez... 10 - 30 - 40
Derek Forbort... 5 - 20 - 25
Paul LaDue... 6 - 28 - 34
Kevin Gravel... 5 - 15 - 20
Brayden McNabb... 3 - 15 - 18

Granted we still don't know who gets drafted by LVGK, assuming CJS implements a system with more emphasis on offense like his Philly days I would assume the numbers posted above for each player are not only attainable but realistic and reasonable..... But what type of team is that??? a playoffs 1st round and bounce team? 2nd round and bounce team??

You should start by shaving off 10-15% off your numbers just due to a typical number of man games lost to injury.

Nearly every player here you're basically hoping for good to great seasons. Just not likely going to happen. Jeff Carter has reached 70 points all of once in his career, in 2008-9. Marian Gaborik has reached 25 points all of once in the past five seasons. Brown has not reached 40 points in the past five seasons. Nic Dowd might not play 60 games if he doesn't improve. 25 points is a career year for Trevor Lewis. Brayden McNabb scored 4 points last season. Not goals. Points. Not to even mention Kopitar.

I mean, I hope you're right, but I know you won't be.

 

[BigKing]

I never said he would BK, just pointing out his production is similar to all three, although in vastly different roles for their specific teams...

Toffoli is more like Luc who got dinged for his ugly skating but could flat out score the goals although not as prolific but you know what i mean....

Amadio was actually viewed as a Stoll type player but is closer to a Mikko Koivu type all around player, I think a in prime Stoll is his floor which is pretty high...

Pearson was just plain overlooked, but is looking like a Paul Stastny type player...

Granted I'm thinking ahead but this 3 guys could potentially become our 2nd line with Carter either moving up to Kopitar's wing or as K17 has eluded to, moving JC for a top prospect and a 1st rounder..

I get what you're saying but you need to realize that Amadio's numbers are not similar to Toffoli's at the same age. TT's pace put him at 19 more points and 16 (!) more goals in the same amount of games.

That's like saying Pearson and Lewis had similar numbers for the Kings last season.

 

[deeshamrock]

So now that we've ripped apart DL and Co for all the bad moves they made and we've thoroughly expressed our opinions on everything else from draft picks to Ontario to the ugly jerseys somebody posted a few days back......
Let me take a swing at being honest in assessing this team for the upcoming season..production wise and upcoming talent wise, also would like you guys to comment/correct me were I'm wrong
CENTERS
Name Goals Assists Points
Anze Kopitar... 24 - 49 - 73
Jeff Carter... 35 - 35 - 70
Nic Dowd... 10 - 20 - 30
Trevor Lewis... 10 - 15 - 25

Wingers
Tyler Toffoli... 33 - 29 - 62
Tanner Pearson... 25 - 27 - 52
Dustin Brown... 18 - 26 - 44
Marian Gaborik... 15 - 22 - 37
Adrian Kempe... 10 - 15 - 25
Jordan Nolan... 7 - 10 - 17
Jonny Brodzinski... 10 - 15 - 25

Defensemen
Drew Doughty... 15 - 40 - 55
Jake Muzzin... 12 - 25 - 37
Alec Martinez... 10 - 30 - 40
Derek Forbort... 5 - 20 - 25
Paul LaDue... 6 - 28 - 34
Kevin Gravel... 5 - 15 - 20
Brayden McNabb... 3 - 15 - 18

Granted we still don't know who gets drafted by LVGK, assuming CJS implements a system with more emphasis on offense like his Philly days I would assume the numbers posted above for each player are not only attainable but realistic and reasonable..... But what type of team is that??? a playoffs 1st round and bounce team? 2nd round and bounce team??

Your numbers are too high. I don't think most of them are attainable or realistic. JS will provide , I think, a more fluent system and that will spike goals. But a new system takes time to implement , it won't happen right away. Carter won't get 35 goals, 28 is more realistic and he's a 60 pt player, 70 isn't happening.

Making the playoffs depends on the trades and changes they make over the summer. I can't see it with the current group, not given the competition in the div/conf.