In my experience, most posters base their assumption on two things:
- Draft rankings
- Having seen more of North American players compared to European players
I am guilty of the 2nd point but in reverse. I do have a bias towards European players because I actually see them play. However, I feel I judge them without comparing them to NA skaters who I have not seen. A good example is Kravtsov vs Wahlstrom. I have not seen enough of Wahlstrom to say who is better but I do like the Kravtsov pick based on what we need and what I expect to see from a 9th overall pick.
If the Rangers go with European players for the 3rd year in a row, there will be an outrage because we passed over a NA player who is in the same tier. I remember how negative people were about Chytil and now people can't shut up about how he's the new Malkin. I think the biggest factor in this is that people get too caught up in a certain prospect. The Wahlstrom hype was caused by Larry Brooks mentioning him a few times for instance plus his draft ranking during the season where he was ranked in the top-5 regularly. With Mittelstadt it was mainly the rankings. I remember 5 or 6 rankings having him higher than where he was picked and one of them even having him 2nd overall (Steve K). Kravtsov's ranking was all over the place, ranging from 6 to 23.
If Podkolzin is ranked between 5 and 15 and we pick him at 6 while passing on (just an example) Newhook who was ranked between 4 and 9 people will use that as justification to call Podkolzin a reach. That's the other problem I am having with the terms steal and reach. A reach is not always a bad thing and a steal is not always a good thing. Veleno was considered a steal, same with Bode Wilde. Does that make them great picks? Maybe. But there has to be a reason so many teams passed up on them compared to where they were ranked by guys like McKenzie, Button, Pronman etc. By that same logic, a reach is not always bad because despite a player being ranked lower than where he was picked, a team saw something in them that made them pick that player earlier than where journalists saw them being picked. We will never know how many other teams wanted to go with Kravtsov in the picks right after ours. Same goes for Lias in 2017. Michael Dal Colle was ranked not lower than 8th overall by guys I mentioned earlier. Just an example. Draft rankings aren't the holy grail people make them out to be.
My last bit, and then I have to leave for the airport, is that people often forget that most NA prospects are putting up amazing numbers because they play against inferior opposition. It is impossible to compare a 90-point season in the USHL to a 15-20 point season in the SHL/KHL because of so many factors. Yet I see people draw conclusions based on this and actually make comparisons between the two. When I watch Kravtsov, I look at what he does and try to remember who he reminds me of, in the KHL. Comparisons are great, but they have to be made based on the same parameters. Even when comparing Kravtsov to Kuznetsov (Who played for the exact same team) you run into the problem of a difference in ice-time, a weaker or stronger team etc. Just because a team picked a different player than who you wanted, doesn't make it a bad pick. And even if that other player reaches the NHL first, it doesn't mean that player is the better prospect. I've posted a list of players earlier this week who didn't make the NHL team out of camp in their D+2 season Among those are guys like Brayden Schenn and Logan Couture. Not exactly busts.
Anyway, that's it. Rant over.