Prospect Info: 2017 NHL Draft / Pick #7 - Lias Andersson (C) - Part II

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Brassard and Kadri are not first line players. Schenn wasn't until last year and we will see if that was anything more than a fluke. Couture is a low-end first line player.

This is the range Andersson projects into... and that's now blowing that pick. Those are good players to have gotten in that range. Basically, I have no idea why "high-end" player is the standard for 7OA.

People need to understand that the expectation for a 7th overall pick is a middle 6 player and if you're lucky, they reach that top line status. But to expect a 7th overall player to be a 1st liner is just a setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[haveandare]

And Nigel Dawes is a star in Russia and was a dominant junior player. As was Pavel Brendl.

Means nothing when you get to this level.

The speed of the game is slower and he’s a very good player so he was able to dominate. Just like he did in the WJC no surprise.

But speed is going to be his issue and quite frankly he never has the puck on his stick so he doesn’t drive offense. and I certainly don’t want him in the middle of the ice with the way he skates. Chytil is going to be a stud at center ice. But he probably doesn’t have franchise center upside. If and when we do get that guy this summer where does that put lias with Brett Howden here big strong skating smart third line center?

It puts lias on the wing. Behind panarin who’s coming make no mistake. Behind buchy behind kravstov no doubt and probably behind kreider still. Maybe even Vesey who has the tools to break out.

It puts lias on the third line wing in a shut down role which is probably where he helps us best. He’s not going to be a 60 pt player guys. I’d love to be wrong on this one but not sure what anyone sees that makes you think otherwise. Is he smart? Absolutely nice hands around the net good shot. Good for the power play 2 id say.

I’m certain McKenzie also compared him to fast or Lindberg at the time but that’s neither here nor there.

Yeah, direct comparisons to players at the same age in the same league absolutely mean something. He did far better than Fast up until now and Fast also wasn't in the NHL to start his D+2 year.

Panarin isn't here until he's here and Vesey isn't "breaking out" at his age.

 

[Edge]

People need to understand that the expectation for a 7th overall pick is a middle 6 player and if you're lucky, they reach that top line status. But to expect a 7th overall player to be a 1st liner is just a setting yourself up for disappointment.

It kind of goes back to my comment (maybe elsewhere in this thread, I can't keep track anymore) that expectation for Andersson is closer to what we'd demand from a 3rd overall pick and not a 7th.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I don't disagree about Lias' place being on the wing long term

A lot of if's here, but if they draft a center next draft, and if Chytil continues to progress at center, I think Lias could be shifted to wing.

 

[Kovalev27]

so I'm literally saying he projects as a third liner and I think that's a bad value for a 7th overall pick. for a year I was told no way he's going to be at worst a second line center. now I'm seeing more of a 7th overall pick shouldn't be considered with a top line ceiling???

that doesn't pencil boys. shouldn't be drafting guys 7th overall that don't AT LEAST have top end ceilings. most are now agreeing that he probably doesn't. well mittelstadt and vilardi and necas all have first line ceilings. Suzuki maybe too. for a franchise desperate for exactly that. top end players you shouldn't use your 7th overall pick on a guy that now your saying which I've been saying, NEVER projected as a top line player.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

so I'm literally saying he projects as a third liner and I think that's a bad value for a 7th overall pick. for a year I was told no way he's going to be at worst a second line center. now I'm seeing more of a 7th overall pick shouldn't be considered with a top line ceiling???

that doesn't pencil boys. shouldn't be drafting guys 7th overall that don't AT LEAST have top end ceilings. most are now agreeing that he probably doesn't. well mittelstadt and vilardi and necas all have first line ceilings. Suzuki maybe too. for a franchise desperate for exactly that. top end players you shouldn't use your 7th overall pick on a guy that now your saying which I've been saying, NEVER projected as a top line player.

Based on? Because leading up to the draft he was ranked anywhere from 8 until 17. Those players have top line upside. Not every player reaches ceiling. There are no guarantees in the draft. Suzuki and Mittelstadt? Yeah, let's wait and see. Them reaching their ceiling isn't something I'd bet my money on.

 

[Kovalev27]

I'd like to see Lias next to Howden as a shut down Third line pair for the next decade. that's where his value will be. you can put a scorer on the other side or you can put Fast there even better. but I think that's the future.

Zibanejad Future 1C Buchnevich
Panarin Chytil Kravstov/Fast
Lias Howden Fast/Kravstov

that's the future if I get to draw it up.

if we get hughes I actually might move him to wing to keep zibanejad at center for a few years. but that's a pipe dream

 

[Kovalev27]

Based on? Because leading up to the draft he was ranked anywhere from 8 until 17. Those players have top line upside. Not every player reaches ceiling. There are no guarantees in the draft. Suzuki and Mittelstadt? Yeah, let's wait and see. Them reaching their ceiling isn't something I'd bet my money on.

fair enough but nobody had him 8. no one

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

fair enough but nobody had him 8. no one

It was either 8 or 9. And other rankings had him at 11, 12, 13 and 14. The notion that Lias had no 1st line upside when he was drafted is bs.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I hate wading into these arguments but just because a player safely projects to be something doesn’t mean he can’t/won’t be more

 

[Kovalev27]

It was either 8 or 9. And other rankings had him at 11, 12, 13 and 14. The notion that Lias had no 1st line upside when he was drafted is bs.

nobody has him or had him with first line potential. I have no idea where you are getting that from but no one has him with that upside let along calling it bs. no one has him in the top 50 nhl prospects either. guys with first line upside are considered top prospects. no one includes him in those convos except fans on this board who are die hard loyal to this management staff for some reason as if they don't make boneheaded mistakes constantly.

 

[Tawnos]

Andersson’s full ceiling remains Toews/Bergeron.

 

[effen]

List of 7OV since 2000 for sample size reasons:

2000: D Lars Jonsson: Bust
2001: D Mike Komisarek: 3rd Pairing D
2002: F Joffrey Lupul: 2nd liner
2003: D Ryan Suter: Franchise D
2004: C Rostislav Olesz: Bust
2005: RW Jack Skille: Bust
2006: RW Kyle Okposo: 2nd liner
2007: W Jakub Voracek: 1st liner
2008: C Colin Wilson: Bottom-sixer
2009: C Nazeem Kadri: 2nd liner
2010: W Jeff Skinner: 1st/2nd liner
2011: C Mark Scheifele: Franchise C
2012: D Mat Dumba: Middle Pairing D
2013: D Darnell Nurse: Middle Pairing D
2014: D Haydn Fleury: Probable bottom-pairing D
2015: D Ivan Provorov: Franchise D
2016: W Clayton Keller: Probable 1st/2nd liner

4 unquestioned top line/pairing guys out of 17.

 

[sbjnyc]

nobody has him or had him with first line potential. I have no idea where you are getting that from but no one has him with that upside let along calling it bs. no one has him in the top 50 nhl prospects either. guys with first line upside are considered top prospects. no one includes him in those convos except fans on this board who are die hard loyal to this management staff for some reason as if they don't make boneheaded mistakes constantly.

NHL Network reveals top 50 prospects

See #31.

 

[silverfish]

Andersson’s full ceiling remains Toews/Bergeron.

I really think we're passed this point, already. Take a look at what Toews and Bergeron were doing in their D+2 seasons, keeping in mind that these guys were also essentially a year younger than Andersson was.

On draft day:
Toews - Turned 18 two months prior to the draft
Bergeron - turned 18 a month after the 2003 draft.
Andersson - Turned 19 4 months after the 2017 draft.

Lias was a very old draft pick. No book is fully written on a 20 year-old prospect, but these Bergeron and Toews types generally establish themselves extremely early.

These first few months in the AHL for Lias will be telling on where he's at, and where he may end up.

 

[Tawnos]

List of 7OV since 2000 for sample size reasons:

2000: D Lars Jonsson: Bust
2001: D Mike Komisarek: 3rd Pairing D
2002: F Joffrey Lupul: 2nd liner
2003: D Ryan Suter: Franchise D
2004: C Rostislav Olesz: Bust
2005: RW Jack Skille: Bust
2006: RW Kyle Okposo: 2nd liner
2007: W Jakub Voracek: 1st liner
2008: C Colin Wilson: Bottom-sixer
2009: C Nazeem Kadri: 2nd liner
2010: W Jeff Skinner: 1st/2nd liner
2011: C Mark Scheifele: Franchise C
2012: D Mat Dumba: Middle Pairing D
2013: D Darnell Nurse: Middle Pairing D
2014: D Haydn Fleury: Probable bottom-pairing D
2015: D Ivan Provorov: Franchise D
2016: W Clayton Keller: Probable 1st/2nd liner

4 unquestioned top line/pairing guys out of 17.

Yep, and it's important to remember that every one of them had top line/pairing ceilings when they were drafted. That's just the nature of the draft. Most players never reach their ceiling.

NHL Network reveals top 50 prospects

See #31.

THN had him at like 15 in February. Granted, there have been 31 more first rounders since then, but no way would that bump him out of the top 50.

 

[Tawnos]

I really think we're passed this point, already. Take a look at what Toews and Bergeron were doing in their D+2 seasons, keeping in mind that these guys were also essentially a year younger than Andersson was.

On draft day:
Toews - Turned 18 two months prior to the draft
Bergeron - turned 18 a month after the 2003 draft.
Andersson - Turned 19 4 months after the 2017 draft.

Lias was a very old draft pick. No book is fully written on a 20 year-old prospect, but these Bergeron and Toews types generally establish themselves extremely early.

These first few months in the AHL for Lias will be telling on where he's at, and where he may end up.

Players develop at different rates, so I'm not really worried about comparing how quickly they developed to Andersson. As long as he's making strides, that's fine. Bergeron put up a little under a PPG in the AHL in his D+2. He got to spend the entire season in the AHL due to the lockout, which I honestly think did him wonders. So I agree, we should be seeing something good from Andersson down there now if he's going to be on track.

A lesser version of those players, by the way, is Derek Stepan, which would still be a really good pick.

 

[Edge]

I really think we're passed this point, already. Take a look at what Toews and Bergeron were doing in their D+2 seasons, keeping in mind that these guys were also essentially a year younger than Andersson was.

On draft day:
Toews - Turned 18 two months prior to the draft
Bergeron - turned 18 a month after the 2003 draft.
Andersson - Turned 19 4 months after the 2017 draft.

Lias was a very old draft pick. No book is fully written on a 20 year-old prospect, but these Bergeron and Toews types generally establish themselves extremely early.

These first few months in the AHL for Lias will be telling on where he's at, and where he may end up.

Agree on the last point, and I mostly agree (90 percent?) on the other stuff --- though I don't know if I ever saw Andersson in that Bergeron/Toews capacity. For me, Andersson was always more of an O'Reilly/Horvat kind of prospect. So in that regard I've tended to look more at what they've done when looking at Andersson.

Could Andersson have potentially played in the NHL last season and potted close to 8 goals and 26 points?

Maybe, probably a little less. But fairly close.

Likewise, could Andersson have played in the NHL this season and netted 13 goals/26 points --- roughly the production of Horvat and ROR in their D-2 season?

Maybe, probably a little less. Though it is worth noting that in both scenarios, the Avs and Nucks were better teams than the Rangers were last season and are expected to be this season.

Toews and Bergeron were/are legit first line centers. Bergeron fell in a stacked draft and slipped under the radar. In Toews case, he was a third overall pick, and arguably in the conversation to go second. I don't think it would be fair to put Andersson anywhere near those expectations personally. So while I really like him, I feel that's probably a bit too lofty for my preferences.

But I can't quite help but feel that Andersson could very well be playing right now if the Rangers decided to go that route. And if they did, I can't help but feel the end result is probably in the ROR/Horvat range. But I'm also hesitant to put too much of Andersson being in the AHL on him as a player right now. I think it's an organizational preference.

 

[silverfish]

Players develop at different rates, so I'm not really worried about comparing how quickly they developed to Andersson. As long as he's making strides, that's fine. Bergeron put up a little under a PPG in the AHL in his D+2. He got to spend the entire season in the AHL due to the lockout, which I honestly think did him wonders. So I agree, we should be seeing something good from Andersson down there now if he's going to be on track.

A lesser version of those players, by the way, is Derek Stepan, which would still be a really good pick.

Yes, if Andersson developed into a similar production level player of Derek Stepan, it'd be a very good pick.

This is the year we find out. Maybe not for sure, maybe not enough to declare one way or another, but it's a big year for his development and the labels that will come with it.

 

[mike14]

fair enough but nobody had him 8. no one

HockeyBuzz had him at 7....

Correction - Draft Buzz

 

[Tawnos]

Please remember that Toews/Bergeron is a ceiling. Andersson doesn't project there and does project more in the ROR/Horvat range.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

agree to disagree then but I think Pierre is going to be spot on here. didn't McKenzie say the same?

No he didn't.

You're dug in to your position, but it's based almost entirely on the fact that you don't think Andersson is a good enough skater. It just strikes me as ironic because we had a 1C through our whole contending window who was a demonstrably slow skater in Stepan and he was probably our most valuable forward.

The game has gotten faster but that doesn't mean every player needs to be a burner or that all burners will excel. There's more to being a good hockey player than being a good skater. Ryan O'Reilly is a pretty slow skater, Ryan Getlaf and Joe Thornton are glaciers. You can play fast without being a fast skater. Processing the game fast, moving the puck quickly, getting into lanes and making quick decisions and knowing when to push the pace...those things are what make the game fast, not necessarily being the fastest skater.

You made your mind up about him the first time you saw him play. Let him develop.

 

[Edge]

Please remember that Toews/Bergeron is a ceiling. Andersson doesn't project there and does project more in the ROR/Horvat range.

One of my concerns is that people can misread or misinterpret what Andersson does this year.

Let's say the Rangers decided to keep Andersson in the NHL and he scored 13 goals and 26 points --- not really unrealistic based on what he showed last season, and what comparable players like ROR and Horvat did.

I think that goes over much better than if people see 12 goals and 25 points in 40 AHL games, and 5 goals and 10 points in 35 NHL games.

It's a weird eye test thing for people. Even though that production would be roughly right on par with ROR and Horvat, people wouldn't see it that way. The former would be seen as a solid debut, the latter would lead to some emotionally charged assumptions.

Years later its why so many people still don't know what to make of European prospects. People have certain images in their head and it's hard to budge them. It's like politics and relgion, they don't understand it and so they dig down even deeper. You can explain it until you're blue in the face, but it goes in one ear and out the other.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Looks like a decent third liner, in my opinion. Maybe he becomes a low-end second liner. I don't think they are the same player because clearly they play differently, but I'd expect a player about the level of Hayes. You don't think a player like that at #7 when that was what he's predicted as for years.

 

[Trxjw]

Eh, the success of a draft pick is measured as much by the player as it is the players taken after him and the quality of the draft itself. It's very early to project Andersson's ceiling, or the strength of his peers from the same draft year, but I don't for a second believe that the Rangers drafted him with the hope that he tops out as a 3rd line center.