2017 Draft discussion- Sabres pick 8th. Part 2

[LongWayDown37]

I'm getting more and more on board with Valimaki. If we can't get Makar or Heiskenan, I think this is the guy I want. Ideally, if we can pick up another asset from a team sitting 10-13 for swapping spots - perhaps as a part of a larger deal - I would be excited to get the guy. He seems to be an all-around talent with less questions that Liljegren. Regardless, none of these guys are in the NHL next year. Valimaki's impressive combine results are bolstering my original interest in him, the guy is a beast of an athelete.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

the point is, there are tiers... last year, most had the tiers as something like:
Tier 1: Matthews, Laine
Tier 2: Puljujaarvi, Dubois, Tkachuk, Juolevi

The Canucks took need, within tier... they didn't take Olli because they had a stupid board that placed him one spot ahead of Tkachuk. The evaluated their need within a tier of talent.

Of course this board is ranking D higher than the average of internet sites. WE have a known need, and we are evaluating with that need in mind, just as our front office will.

The ISS doesn't have a need. They can arbitrarily place Glass ahead of Heiskanen. Whatever miniscule difference they think they've identified is irrelevant to a team board that will allow style, fit, need to be that differentiator.

This year the tiers are quite clear too IMO:
1-2 Patrick, Hischier (ave. 1.18 to 1.82)
3-4 Vilardi, Heiskanen (av.e 4.18 to 4.45)
5-8 Mittelstadt, Tippet, Glass, Makar (ave. 6.55 to 8.36)
9-18 Necas, Pettersson, Lilejgrem Rasmussen, Tolvanen, Vesalainen, Valimaki, Suzuki, Andersson, Kostin (ave 11.55 to 16.45)
19+ Everyone else (ave 19.55+)

There is no reason to expect more than 1 D picked in top 4 and very unlikely top have 2 in top 8. I fully expect our GM to go forward if Makar and Heiskanen are gone by 8, even if I would like him to pick Valimaki there even in that case.

Of course any team can make an off the board pick and that happens almost every year but that doesn't mean that the priginal argument you started putting down is incorrect. It's quite funny how the rankings on this board don't match with the general consensus in that we have D ranked much much higher on average.

 

[Reddawg]

I've been feeling as though Mittelstadt is going to slip out of the top ten for a while now, and his combine showing solidified that for me. I think any teams that were considering him ahead of us will now take Glass instead.

 

[Jame]

I'm getting more and more on board with Valimaki. If we can't get Makar or Heiskenan, I think this is the guy I want. Ideally, if we can pick up another asset from a team sitting 10-13 for swapping spots - perhaps as a part of a larger deal - I would be excited to get the guy. He seems to be an all-around talent with less questions that Liljegren. Regardless, none of these guys are in the NHL next year. Valimaki's impressive combine results are bolstering my original interest in him, the guy is a beast of an athelete.

The trade down scenario is fun... but I don't like it in reality.

If you think Valimaki is a future top 4 Defensemen who can transition to the pros relatively quickly (I do)... don't risk losing him by trading down. The extra 2nd rounder isn't worth it IMO.

 

[hizzoner]

I like the idea of Valimaki although would be tempted by Glass. Valimaki has everything although he is among the older draftees this June. I assume Patrick, Hischier, Heiskenen, are gone. Vilardi does not help us--good player but does not bring the speed we need to add. Tippett seems to have it all but some seem to doubt his hockey iq for the bigs. Mittelstadt and Makar are risky for various reasons although their ceilings may be higher the Valimaki.

 

[Husko]

The trade down scenario is fun... but I don't like it in reality.

If you think Valimaki is a future top 4 Defensemen who can transition to the pros relatively quickly (I do)... don't risk losing him by trading down. The extra 2nd rounder isn't worth it IMO.

Agreed. Just get your guy.

 

[Jame]

This year the tiers are quite clear too IMO:
1-2 Patrick, Hischier (ave. 1.18 to 1.82)
3-4 Vilardi, Heiskanen (av.e 4.18 to 4.45)
5-8 Mittelstadt, Tippet, Glass, Makar (ave. 6.55 to 8.36)
9-18 Necas, Pettersson, Lilejgrem Rasmussen, Tolvanen, Vesalainen, Valimaki, Suzuki, Andersson, Kostin (ave 11.55 to 16.45)
19+ Everyone else (ave 19.55+)

There is no reason to expect more than 1 D picked in top 4 and very unlikely top have 2 in top 8. I fully expect our GM to go forward if Makar and Heiskanen are gone by 8, even if I would like him to pick Valimaki there even in that case.

Of course any team can make an off the board pick and that happens almost every year but that doesn't mean that the priginal argument you started putting down is incorrect. It's quite funny how the rankings on this board don't match with the general consensus in that we have D ranked much much higher on average.

Tier 1 no order: Makar, Heiskanen, Nolan, Nico
Tier 2 no order: Glass, Valimaki, Brannstrom, *Mittelstadt*, Vilardi
Tier 3 no order: *Liljegren*, Klostin, Petterson, Tippet, Necas, Vaakainen
Tier 4 no order: Norris, Vesalainen, Suzuki, Tolvanen, Jokiharju, Yamamoto
Tier 5 no order: Foote, Poehling, Ratcliffe, Heponiemi, Hague, Gadjovich, Minulin

Teams don't make "off the board" picks... the internet creates the hive mind rankings to make it appear that way.

 

[Reddawg]

Teams don't make "off the board" picks... the internet creates the hive mind rankings to make it appear that way.

Teams make "off everyone else's board" picks at times...no one saw Thomas Hickey at #4 overall coming and he was immediately and pretty unanimously agreed to be a big reach.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Tier 1 no order: Makar, Heiskanen, Nolan, Nico
Tier 2 no order: Glass, Valimaki, Brannstrom, *Mittelstadt*, Vilardi
Tier 3 no order: *Liljegren*, Klostin, Petterson, Tippet, Necas, Vaakainen
Tier 4 no order: Norris, Vesalainen, Suzuki, Tolvanen, Jokiharju, Yamamoto
Tier 5 no order: Foote, Poehling, Ratcliffe, Heponiemi, Hague, Gadjovich, Minulin

Teams don't make "off the board" picks... the internet creates the hive mind rankings to make it appear that way.

We will have to revisit the tiers after the draft as you just attempted to say you know better than people who do this for a job.

 

[Samsonite23]

Must go with the consensus!

 

[Ace]

I genuinely admire the bravado of overrating defensemen just because you want it to be true and then putting it out there like you know better.

It's something.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Must go with the consensus!

When the majority of people here base their "tiers" or "rankings" on youtube highlights and reading blogs...yeah probably a good idea to go with consensus. Cheers for the irony How many of you can say they have seen enough of the top 30 players to be meaningfully able to rank them? What's that silence? OK.

 

[Jame]

We will have to revisit the tiers after the draft as you just attempted to say you know better than people who do this for a job.

Incorrect

I said, "here's what I think".

I do think that is a more useful discussion than the one you're engaged in... which is essentially "don't bother having your own opinion, I've averaged the opinions of others instead"

 

[truthbluth]

I don't get this 'Valimaki is an all around defenseman' take. He's has exceptional offensive skills, but poor gap control and a long way to go as a 1 on 1 defender. That's not to say he doesn't belong in the top 10, but I think the narrative that he's well rounded while Brannstrom is just offensive is based on their bodies and not their actual play.

For me, the tiers break out;
1: Hischier, Patrick, Heiskanen, Makar, Glass
2: Tippett, Vilardi, Mittelstadt, Necas
3: Brannstrom, Valimaki, Pettersson, Suzuki, Vesalainen, Andersson
4: Hague, Foote, Vaakanainen, Yamamoto, Robertson, Tolvanen, Rasmussen, Kostin, Thomas

For me, I wouldn't mind reaching across a single tier to grab a position of need, but across two I wouldn't do. If Glass somehow slides to 8, I think you grab him.

 

[Aladyyn]

"People who do this for a job" get it wrong all the time.

 

[Sabre the Win]

When the majority of people here base their "tiers" or "rankings" on youtube highlights and reading blogs...yeah probably a good idea to go with consensus. Cheers for the irony How many of you can say they have seen enough of the top 30 players to be meaningfully able to rank them? What's that silence? OK.

I live in the same city as the Ice Dogs, I am a 15 min walk from their stadium or a 5 min drive downtown. I can watch any player that plays in the OHL so to think that people don't have other similar situations for them where they live is being ignorant.

 

[Samsonite23]

When the majority of people here base their "tiers" or "rankings" on youtube highlights and reading blogs...yeah probably a good idea to go with consensus. Cheers for the irony How many of you can say they have seen enough of the top 30 players to be meaningfully able to rank them? What's that silence? OK.

You can have a different opinion than somebody, fine. It's ******** to talk down to somebody who has their own rankings (which you assume is based on youtube videos because you want to feel superior) vs. regurgitating the opinions of people who get the rankings wrong on a yearly basis. You be you though. We actually enjoy the conversation.

And we pick at 8, I don't need to have a heavily researched top 30 to decide who I want at 8. I need to have a top 10.

 

[Sabreality]

I just think in a draft like this years, you cant get too hung up on tiers beyond the top 4 or 5. I wouldnt be shocked if guys like Suzuki, Vesalainen or even a Yamamoto crash the top 9 -12 party

 

[BarbadosSlim]

Tier 1 no order: Makar, Heiskanen, Nolan, Nico
Tier 2 no order: Glass, Valimaki, Brannstrom, *Mittelstadt*, Vilardi
Tier 3 no order: *Liljegren*, Klostin, Petterson, Tippet, Necas, Vaakainen
Tier 4 no order: Norris, Vesalainen, Suzuki, Tolvanen, Jokiharju, Yamamoto
Tier 5 no order: Foote, Poehling, Ratcliffe, Heponiemi, Hague, Gadjovich, Minulin

Teams don't make "off the board" picks... the internet creates the hive mind rankings to make it appear that way.

Except they definitely do. The interview with the New Jersey scout said as much. "and then some other team picks a guy and you're like, "Who's that? Where'd he come from?" "

 

[Jim Carr's Rug]

When the majority of people here base their "tiers" or "rankings" on youtube highlights and reading blogs...yeah probably a good idea to go with consensus. Cheers for the irony How many of you can say they have seen enough of the top 30 players to be meaningfully able to rank them? What's that silence? OK.

Oh yes, it must be June. Our annual argument about the validity of opinions.

 

[Jame]

Except they definitely do. The interview with the New Jersey scout said as much. "and then some other team picks a guy and you're like, "Who's that? Where'd he come from?" "

Anyone who said that about a 1st round pick should be fired.

 

[BarbadosSlim]

Anyone who said that about a 1st round pick should be fired.

That wasn't your original point though... And if a team does so and it turns out to be a great pick, should they still be fired? Eric Karlsson was generally lauded as 'off the board' at 15.

You said it never happens and it clearly does. But whatever move the goalposts to your liking.

 

[Jame]

When the majority of people here base their "tiers" or "rankings" on youtube highlights and reading blogs...yeah probably a good idea to go with consensus. Cheers for the irony How many of you can say they have seen enough of the top 30 players to be meaningfully able to rank them? What's that silence? OK.

read as: "I don't put any effort in to this, so neither do you"

 

[Jame]

That wasn't your original point though... And if a team does so and it turns out to be a great pick, should they still be fired? Eric Karlsson was generally lauded as 'off the board' at 15.

You said it never happens and it clearly does. But whatever move the goalposts to your liking.

You said, that a scout said, "and then some other team picks a guy and you're like, "Who's that? Where'd he come from?"

If that was about a 1st round pick... said scout should be fired.

Are teams unaware of guys taken in the later rounds? Definitely... but that's different.

Karlsson was still largely viewed as a 1st round prospect. He wasn't some unknown. Even here, at HF, where the consensus consumes everyone... he went 28th in the mock draft.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/10421/hockeys_future_staff_mock_draft2008/

Again, teams don't go off the board... because they have THEIR OWN BOARD.

Its only viewed as off the board because fans allow this consensus mind set to set in.

 

[BarbadosSlim]

Again, teams don't go off the board... because they have THEIR OWN BOARD.

Its only viewed as off the board because fans allow this consensus mind set to set in.

Ok fair enough, I misunderstood what you meant with the original statement and so apologies for that.

And yeah I agree that teams obviously have their own board which they'll have set before the draft. But I don't think it's impossible that teams will have players on their boards that the majority of other teams don't. To me, that's an 'off the board' pick. This is just debating the semantics over three words though, which is rather pointless.