2017 Draft discussion- Sabres pick 8th. Part 2

[BB88]

Time to start kicking Heiskanen while he's down! While his height's down, at least. Take to the twitter, the prospects board, wgr, reddit, pub stools close to the arena, whatever. The kid's short! He lost an inch and a quarter in the last hour--at this rate he'll be looking up to Gerbe by bedtime.

With our powers combined, we can drive this narrative and push him to 8, gang.

He was listed 6'0 before this weekend so the hype grows

But I'll say it again. If he gets past Colorado Buffalo takes him at 8. Start him in AHL and he could be NHL ready by the end of season.

 

[Jim Bob]

Some numbers are now public - https://link.nhl.com/centralscouting/public/

Hischier won the pull up drill. He has to go first now, right?

 

[Jim Bob]

http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/slick-defenseman-cale-makar-attractive-nhl-draft-prospect-sabres/

Like many young defensemen, Papaioannou said, Makar can improve his play away from the puck.

“But when he’s on and he’s skating and carrying the puck and making plays, there was nobody better,†he said.

Not surprisingly, the 5-foot-11, 180-pound Makar had opportunities to play major junior hockey. The Medicine Hat Tigers own his rights, and he said joining the Western Hockey League club was tempting. Makar, however, wanted to keep his NCAA eligibility, so he stayed put.

He plans to attend the University of Massachusetts next season. Pro hockey can wait.

“I don’t know if I’m ready to make the jump to the NHL or AHL,†Makar said. “I think I’ll need one or two years of development in the NCAA first.â

 

[toomuchsauce]

Amen brother. Ideal scenario is through some nifty trading we end up with 2 teens firsts instead of baving 8OA and snap both Valimaki and Andersson. That would be amazing.

I'm on board with this, too. I would be very happy to see the Sabres draft any of the Swedes projected as first-rounder (Andersson, Brannstrom, Pettersson, Liljegren), whether at 8OA or by trading back. This seems like a draft where a smart team could trade back and still pick up solid players.

Of course, I would also be okay with them trading up to #3 for Vilardi or Glass, so I'm all over the place. I know, trading up never happens. Maybe I just want to see them do something interesting.

 

[toomuchsauce]

Also, since this draft is all about 5'11" defensemen, if David Farrance is on the Board when the Sabres pick in the 2nd round, they should absolutely take this kid. Hopefully, Botterill, despite being a rookie GM, will not be intimidated by the "they only picked him because he's from Rochester" crowd. He's a great skater and his stats compare favorably to McAvoy's U18 stats. He's committed to BU and there is a chance he's a guy that could take off there and leave everyone wondering why he wasn't picked higher (similar to how McAvoy was projected as an early-second round pick and everyone laughed at the Bruins for reaching). Farrance also played this entire season as a 17 year old and doesn't turn 18 for 3 weeks, so he's one of the younger players in the draft.

I'm not saying he's going to become PK Subban (but I'm also not saying he's not going to become the next PK Subban), but I see Farrance as, potentially, much better value than Makar. Given the boom/bust factor in ANY defenseman, let alone any 5'11" defenseman, he would be a smart pick for an organization that could use a few 2nd rounders to pan out.

That he'll be in the same conference as Makar keeps things interesting, too.

I mean, heck, if you trade down in the 1st round and take Brannstrom and then trade up in the early 2nd round and draft Farrance, you change the entire trajectory of the organizational defense without wasting assets.

 

[Paxon]

Also, since this draft is all about 5'11" defensemen, if David Farrance is on the Board when the Sabres pick in the 2nd round, they should absolutely take this kid. Hopefully, Botterill, despite being a rookie GM, will not be intimidated by the "they only picked him because he's from Rochester" crowd. He's a great skater and his stats compare favorably to McAvoy's U18 stats. He's committed to BU and there is a chance he's a guy that could take off there and leave everyone wondering why he wasn't picked higher (similar to how McAvoy was projected as an early-second round pick and everyone laughed at the Bruins for reaching). Farrance also played this entire season as a 17 year old and doesn't turn 18 for 3 weeks, so he's one of the younger players in the draft.

I'm not saying he's going to become PK Subban (but I'm also not saying he's not going to become the next PK Subban), but I see Farrance as, potentially, much better value than Makar. Given the boom/bust factor in ANY defenseman, let alone any 5'11" defenseman, he would be a smart pick for an organization that could use a few 2nd rounders to pan out.

That he'll be in the same conference as Makar keeps things interesting, too.

I mean, heck, if you trade down in the 1st round and take Brannstrom and then trade up in the early 2nd round and draft Farrance, you change the entire trajectory of the organizational defense without wasting assets.

I'm with you on this

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Also, since this draft is all about 5'11" defensemen, if David Farrance is on the Board when the Sabres pick in the 2nd round, they should absolutely take this kid. Hopefully, Botterill, despite being a rookie GM, will not be intimidated by the "they only picked him because he's from Rochester" crowd. He's a great skater and his stats compare favorably to McAvoy's U18 stats. He's committed to BU and there is a chance he's a guy that could take off there and leave everyone wondering why he wasn't picked higher (similar to how McAvoy was projected as an early-second round pick and everyone laughed at the Bruins for reaching). Farrance also played this entire season as a 17 year old and doesn't turn 18 for 3 weeks, so he's one of the younger players in the draft.

I'm not saying he's going to become PK Subban (but I'm also not saying he's not going to become the next PK Subban), but I see Farrance as, potentially, much better value than Makar. Given the boom/bust factor in ANY defenseman, let alone any 5'11" defenseman, he would be a smart pick for an organization that could use a few 2nd rounders to pan out.

That he'll be in the same conference as Makar keeps things interesting, too.

I mean, heck, if you trade down in the 1st round and take Brannstrom and then trade up in the early 2nd round and draft Farrance, you change the entire trajectory of the organizational defense without wasting assets.

Don't think any team should consider that they are fixing holes in the roster with 2nd round picks. The bust potential there is still rather high - doubt there's more than 15-20% chance a 2nd rounder even if you have good scouting becomes top/second line skater....and normally that would be in 3-4 years time minimum, luxury we don't have IMO.

 

[Heraldic]

I have noticed a trend in which in general (some centers) drop more than they should and Right Wings seem to be selected higher than rankings warant.

I've re-examined the logic, and I essentially know what I need to do, it has to do
with a little too much emphasis on the team need defaults. I will put
out Auto-Select routine version 3 on saturday.

Once again, I do want to re-iterate that even with the tweak, there still will always be a handful of guys that slide and a handful that go higher than expected. I think we all really want that element of surprise. I'm trying to find the right balance - i think it's getting close.

I'll post when the latest tweak is 'LIVE' on saturday and then i think it's safe to say that JOSH NORRIS will start going higher on a fairly consistant basis.

appreciate the feedback

It really isn't a surprise if you have emphasis on the "team need" during first two rounds.

I'm not familiar about your parameters, but if you have pretty much at all emphasis on "team need" on first two rounds over individual ratings, you're probably going to see your simulation going really differently compared to the actual draft.

It has been actually addressed here plenty of times, but the "team need" factor seems to be put way too much emphasis here on boards. Several executives have said that the team need plays zero factor over individual ranking (meaning the higher rated player will awlays be selected over inferior, yet more suitable in the regards of "team need") - and none have indicated towards the opposite. That's actually what this board witnessed last year as well... The LHD was then as well a huge team need - wingers and especially centers significantly lesser. Despite that we ended up passing d-men and taking a winger and a center... But this "team need over BPA during top rounds" narrative seems to keep living for some reason.

I would recommend you to slide the "team need" emphasis in a way where the emphasis is weak on the first two rounds but becomes more stronger on later rounds. I think that way it makes the simulation a lot closer to an actual one.

 

[truthbluth]

similar to how McAvoy was projected as an early-second round pick and everyone laughed at the Bruins for reaching

This is not accurate.
McAvoy was 14th in Bob McKenzie's final rankings.

 

[truthbluth]

Timothy Liljegren listed at 5'11.25.
Same height as Makar
http://lastwordonsports.com/2017/06/03/2017-nhl-draft-combine-heights-weights/

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Liljegren is dropping into the mid to late teens. Feel free to laugh at this statement come draft day if it doesn't come true.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

https://www.nhl.com/jets/video/combine--lias-andersson/t-277437442/c-52141403

Sounds like Andersson would likely end up with the Kings, they didn't even bother interviewing cause his Dad works there. 11OA. So instead let's we do that instead by giving them re-signed Kane in return for the pick

 

[WpgBuffan]

Also, since this draft is all about 5'11" defensemen, if David Farrance is on the Board when the Sabres pick in the 2nd round, they should absolutely take this kid. Hopefully, Botterill, despite being a rookie GM, will not be intimidated by the "they only picked him because he's from Rochester" crowd. He's a great skater and his stats compare favorably to McAvoy's U18 stats. He's committed to BU and there is a chance he's a guy that could take off there and leave everyone wondering why he wasn't picked higher (similar to how McAvoy was projected as an early-second round pick and everyone laughed at the Bruins for reaching). Farrance also played this entire season as a 17 year old and doesn't turn 18 for 3 weeks, so he's one of the younger players in the draft.

I'm not saying he's going to become PK Subban (but I'm also not saying he's not going to become the next PK Subban), but I see Farrance as, potentially, much better value than Makar. Given the boom/bust factor in ANY defenseman, let alone any 5'11" defenseman, he would be a smart pick for an organization that could use a few 2nd rounders to pan out.

That he'll be in the same conference as Makar keeps things interesting, too.

I mean, heck, if you trade down in the 1st round and take Brannstrom and then trade up in the early 2nd round and draft Farrance, you change the entire trajectory of the organizational defense without wasting assets.

if Buffalo does go with a forward at #8 then I hope they take defenseman with both of their 2nd rounders. Farrance should be on the radar for sure and would be a great pick.

 

[Jim Bob]

https://www.nhl.com/jets/video/combine--lias-andersson/t-277437442/c-52141403

Sounds like Andersson would likely end up with the Kings, they didn't even bother interviewing cause his Dad works there. 11OA. So instead let's we do that instead by giving them re-signed Kane in return for the pick

The Kings don't have the cap space to add Kane. Plus, I don't see them traing a 1st for Kane, even if he's re-signed.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

The Kings don't have the cap space to add Kane. Plus, I don't see them traing a 1st for Kane, even if he's re-signed.

Their window is closing. They either go full rebuild or trading futures for Kane is an a good option if they want to compete. We can take some cap dump back too as long as it's not bad of a dump lol They have a lot of bad contracts haha

 

[Der Jaeger]

The Kings don't have the cap space to add Kane. Plus, I don't see them traing a 1st for Kane, even if he's re-signed.

They'll lose a contract in expansion. I think they can fit him for a year. And they could re-sign him. Greene's contract is ending. That, and the contract they lose in expansion, would be around Kane's number.

 

[Jim Bob]

Their window is closing. They either go full rebuild or trading futures for Kane is an a good option if they want to compete. We can take some cap dump back too as long as it's not bad of a dump lol They have a lot of bad contracts haha

They'll lose a contract in expansion. I think they can fit him for a year. And they could re-sign him. Greene's contract is ending. That, and the contract they lose in expansion, would be around Kane's number.

If they trade for Kane, they might not be able to re-sign Toffolli who is a RFA.

Maybe LA really like Kane and Botts could get something for him.

But, I think there would be a contract coming back to Buffalo and the 11OV pick wouldn't be involved.

My guess is that Muzzin or Martinez for Kane+ is the more likely deal if LA likes Kane.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

If they trade for Kane, they might not be able to re-sign Toffolli who is a RFA.

Maybe LA really like Kane and Botts could get something for him.

But, I think there would be a contract coming back to Buffalo and the 11OV pick wouldn't be involved.

My guess is that Muzzin or Martinez for Kane+ is the more likely deal if LA likes Kane.

I'll take any of the 3 - 11OA, Muzzin or Martinez all sound like better options to me than re-signing Kane and I even like the guy to some extend

We could get 11OAA + Greene potentially who's on 2.5 mil for 1 more year but they will have to dump some cap next year as well. Who knows, maybe they work out something with Vegas and manage to shed some cap this way and it is no more an issue for them so they can just take on cap without having to give up their 3-4D combo.

 

[Der Jaeger]

If they trade for Kane, they might not be able to re-sign Toffolli who is a RFA.

Maybe LA really like Kane and Botts could get something for him.

But, I think there would be a contract coming back to Buffalo and the 11OV pick wouldn't be involved.

My guess is that Muzzin or Martinez for Kane+ is the more likely deal if LA likes Kane.

I'd try Kane and 37 for 11 and see what Stevens thinks.

 

[Chainshot]

Was browsing the VO2 list and wondering if the organizational trend for that particular physical trait transcends the changes. Thoughts on Reedy in the 2nd?

 

[kingofQueens]

Assuming Makar and Heiskanen are gone by pick 8 (which I think is very likely) I would be very happy with Valimaki at 8. Part of me would be more comfortable taking him over Makar even. I just think Valimaki can do it all. He's a good skater, he jumps into the rush often and does it well, he has solid outlet passes, he uses his body soundly, he's more physical than many of the top defenseman in this draft (Heiskanen, Makar, Liljegren, Brannstom, etc...).

Long story short: sign me up for Valimaki at 8

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Assuming Makar and Heiskanen are gone by pick 8 (which I think is very likely) I would be very happy with Valimaki at 8. Part of me would be more comfortable taking him over Makar even. I just think Valimaki can do it all. He's a good skater, he jumps into the rush often and does it well, he has solid outlet passes, he uses his body soundly, he's more physical than many of the top defenseman in this draft (Heiskanen, Makar, Liljegren, Brannstom, etc...).

Long story short: sign me up for Valimaki at 8

Yeah, if it comes down to Liljegren, Valimaki, and Brannstrom...they're all the same tier to me, so I'd have to choose based on style preference, which is Valimaki.

 

[Ace]

If it comes down to Liljegren, Valimaki and Brannstrom we'd better be somehow picking in the mid teens

 

[DJN21]

If it comes down to Liljegren, Valimaki and Brannstrom we'd better be somehow picking in the mid teens

Agreed. If it comes to that I'd hope we had traded down and made a seperated trade to grab 2 of the three.

 

[Jim Bob]

If it comes down to Liljegren, Valimaki and Brannstrom we'd better be somehow picking in the mid teens

Agreed. If it comes to that I'd hope we had traded down and made a seperated trade to grab 2 of the three.

I would be surprised if any team trades back out of the top 10.

If a top 10 pick gets moved, it will be for an NHLer.