2017 Draft discussion- Sabres pick 8th. Part 2
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Rasmus CacOlainen
The end of the Tank
maybe without the 2nd for 3rd swap they would do it. Otherwise I doubt it. I still think Muzzin value is higher than re-signed Kane.
Paxon
202? Stanley Cup Champions
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I think there is a drop in quality after 8 guys as I listen in this thread. If you aren't going to take one of them...I'm not in favor of reaching to the next tier.
Hischier, Patrick on top
Makar right after
Glass, Vilardi, Mittlestadt, Heiskanen and Tippett next
After those 8 Necas and Pettersson would be the next tier to me.
Rasmussen, Liljegren, Valimaki, Tolvanen after that.
I understand everyone's desire to draft for need on d...but it's not like we have so much talent anywhere else.
Kane is likely gone sooner than later. Who knows what happens with Reinhart who there isn't a top 6 C spot for and I think is being used wrong on wing. Okposo is coming off a massive illness. That leaves Nylander as an unproven to go with Eichel and RoR.
They need D. They don't only need D. They need skill up front too.
Paxon
202? Stanley Cup Champions
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I hope so but he hasn't even been cleared to skate yet and concussions can be tricky enough without throwing in what happened to him with the treatment.
What I really want to know is what the plan with Reinhart is. If he's still a winger in their plans I'd really explore trading him for D. If they could swing a deal with Carolina for Hanifin it just makes sense for everyone. Like the Ryan johansen/Seth Jones trade did.
If you could get yourself to Hanifin/Risto/McCabe/Antipin/Guhle in the near future you're on your way and it opens up using the pick on someone who can keep up with Jack on the rush which I think is almost as important as anything.
Rasmus CacOlainen
The end of the Tank
I've updated the average rankings with some more data. A few more updates due as some more final rankings come out soon.
From the current average top 10 I don't want Liljegren (hockey IQ, terrible year), Tippet (hockey IQ) or Mittelstadt (WTF was this at the combine, he's at least 3 years away from the NHL based on this lol)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yxwEPYJ7lG6oxKsKnX62e-u8P9saQnUAXrtWVFhCFzg/edit#gid=0
From the current average top 10 I don't want Liljegren (hockey IQ, terrible year), Tippet (hockey IQ) or Mittelstadt (WTF was this at the combine, he's at least 3 years away from the NHL based on this lol)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yxwEPYJ7lG6oxKsKnX62e-u8P9saQnUAXrtWVFhCFzg/edit#gid=0
Rasmus CacOlainen
The end of the Tank
BTW, no one has Makar ranked above 7, so it is quite realistic he may drop to 8 somehow if team scouts agree.
AustonsNostrils
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Makar ranked among the best in agility and jumping at the Combine. And you see it on the ice in his skating. Really want him. Having two elite skaters like Eichel and Makar with jaw dropping skills for the next 15 years would be so nice/entertaining.
Yeah...pros and cons of draft day...do we have a trade in place on the way to the mic or do we have to pull the trigger before?
Honestly either way if Minny offers Brodin for it at any point or whatever similar trade...I just take it and walk away with the unknown. I draft heavy on D afterwards and hope Guhle and Antipin are legit...
That allows us to keep Reinhart rather than flipping him for another dman and allows a ton of leeway with what to do with kane.
Also keeps Nylander in the pipeline.
In the same long winded breath I'd sooner trade Nylander for Brodin or said comparable than the pick and then pick a dman to restock that way...
Tons of moving parts...it'll all shake out.
Rasmus CacOlainen
The end of the Tank
Just going back to the average rankings - Brannstrom is the biggest wildcard in the first round it seems. Ranks 22 on average but picks go from 10th all the way to not being ranked at all in top 28/32 (4 out of 11 did not rank him). By far the biggest delta in evaluation of him. If he drops to the very late 20s I think it would be worth to somehow trade up in to the back end of the first with some other lesser picks to grab him (maybe our 2 2nds are sufficient to get us 26-27th pick?).
AustonsNostrils
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amazing how some of these young Swedes and Finns speak English with no accent - compare Valimaki and Risto. Girgensons surprised me when he got here, was expecting a thick Eastern European accent and it wasn't there.
Team Cozens
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Jusso Valimaki is our best option at #8 after Makar for me. I don't care if his rank is 13-15, these rankings are so close from 5-15. Plus i'm not trading back to the teens only to have a team at #12 take him. He has great size and a complete all round game good for 22-24 minutes a night. LHD. Yes please.
Brannstrom will be interesting. Even though the game has changed, a 5'9 dman in the first round better be head and shoulders above everyone else.
Gabriel Landeskog is the gold standard of this phenomenon for me, it's amazing to me how entirely accentless his English is.
jc17
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Doug Prishpreed
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Im in the same boat -- I have Valimaki ranked 6 or 7. There is so little difference among that 5-15 group that there is no such thing as "BPA." You take based on things like fit, style, personality, and need. I would be very happy staying put at 8 and taking Jusso.
bingo
Teams don't even have rankings in the 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8, etc sense. Their boards are made up tiers, and their discussions when faced with the opportunity to choose between multiple players in a tier is exactly as you stated (fit, style, need, etc)
We've seen this play out multiple times.
We've seen it in how Murray and his team ranked players. 5+ was the top ranking... when deciding between multiple 5+ players the conversation was around need, fit, style, etc...
We saw it in how Regier and co. chose Zadarov, in a very basic conversation, "If you want to get tougher to play against, this is the guy we should take"... there was no conversation around ranking. Nobody asked if he was the best player available. He was part of a tier, and the deciding factor was around need (need isn't just positional folks).
BPA is a total myth. A simplified concept to be churned out to the media for fans.
Rasmus CacOlainen
The end of the Tank
Average pre-draft rank last year top 20:
Juolevi 7 (went 5)
Sergachev 8 (went 9)
Chychrun 10 (went 16)
Fabbro 14 (went 17)
Bean 15 (went 13)
McAvoy 16 (went 14)
This year we have:
Heiskanen 4
Makar 8
Liljegren 11
Valimaki 15
Foote 19
I'd say it will be pretty close to the pre-draft ranking with maybe Valimaki potentially swapping places with Liljegren and maybe Brannstrom making it in the top 15 if a team likes him. I don't think Heiskanen at 4 and Makar at 8 on average is that far from the truth.
Our big board (until 13th) had:
Heiskanen 3
Makar 4
Liljegren 6
Valimaki 10
Brannstrom 11/12
I'd like to think the average-d rankings are much more realistic than having 4 D go in the top 10. I mean anything can happen, but the guy is right this board is ranking the D much higher on average compared to any other ranking available for this year's draft.
the point is, there are tiers... last year, most had the tiers as something like:
Tier 1: Matthews, Laine
Tier 2: Puljujaarvi, Dubois, Tkachuk, Juolevi
The Canucks took need, within tier... they didn't take Olli because they had a stupid board that placed him one spot ahead of Tkachuk. The evaluated their need within a tier of talent.
Of course this board is ranking D higher than the average of internet sites. WE have a known need, and we are evaluating with that need in mind, just as our front office will.
The ISS doesn't have a need. They can arbitrarily place Glass ahead of Heiskanen. Whatever miniscule difference they think they've identified is irrelevant to a team board that will allow style, fit, need to be that differentiator.
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