2017 Draft discussion- Sabres pick 8th. Part 2

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Wheres DiPietro projected to be taken? I wont be against using one of the seconds on him as he seems like a good goalie prospect and we are quite bare there especially if we are losing Ullmark its gonna get even worse in the pipeline.

 

[Reddawg]

Wheres DiPietro projected to be taken? I wont be against using one of the seconds on him as he seems like a good goalie prospect and we are quite bare there especially if we are losing Ullmark its gonna get even worse in the pipeline.

First overall. He'll probably get a fifteen year deal at some point too.

 

[Jim Bob]

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...2017-nhl-draft-defence-finnish-defenceman-whl

A Brief Scouting Report on Valimaki
Despite his impressive scoring numbers, Valimaki is known as a two-way defenceman rather than an offensive defenceman. He is a reliable all-around defender with the size and strength to factor in on an NHL penalty kill, and he does not take a ton of risks in his own end.

He is constantly looking to jump into the play in the offensive end, and his intelligence shines as he picks his spots well. Offensively, he did a ton of damage while quarterbacking the powerplay this season, and led all CHL draft eligible defencemen in powerplay points per game this year. In addition, he trailed only Conor Timmins in terms of 5v5 points per game.

Ultimately, Valimaki looks to be an impressive prospect when you combine his scoring numbers with his defensive reputation. He is not as effective at carrying the puck as Erik Brannstrom, Cale Makar, or Timothy Liljegren, but he offers far more size and strength. Although he is one of the older prospects in this draft class, the same can be said for other potential first round defencemen such as Cale Makar, Nicolas Hague, Cal Foote, and Conor Timmins.

I still think he's getting underrated.

When I was at Wegmans this morning I looked quickly through THN's draft preview.

One thing I flipped to was that Penguins organizational report. This year's issue had draft pick percentages by league the players were drafted out of.

Pittsburgh was CHL heavy and European light. That makes me wonder if a guy like Valimaki might be a little more likely to be a Botts pick.

 

[Jame]

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...2017-nhl-draft-defence-finnish-defenceman-whl



I still think he's getting underrated.

When I was at Wegmans this morning I looked quickly through THN's draft preview.

One thing I flipped to was that Penguins organizational report. This year's issue had draft pick percentages by league the players were drafted out of.

Pittsburgh was CHL heavy and European light. That makes me wonder if a guy like Valimaki might be a little more likely to be a Botts pick.

I've been surprised to see Jusso remain "underrated" through each wave of rankings. I'm also surprised that he's yet to have his name "run up the flag pole", it seems Brannstrom is next up in that department.

IMO Defensemen (multiple) will very likely be the BPA at #8. My top 10 has 5 forwards, and 5 defensemen.

 

[LetsDoughBuffalo]

We had better hit on our pick...

I won't be able to stomach it if the Leafs land Valimaki or Brannstrom and they end up being a better player than our pick...

I know, "focus on our team, not others."

I just can't help it sometimes...

 

[Husko]

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...2017-nhl-draft-defence-finnish-defenceman-whl



I still think he's getting underrated.

When I was at Wegmans this morning I looked quickly through THN's draft preview.

One thing I flipped to was that Penguins organizational report. This year's issue had draft pick percentages by league the players were drafted out of.

Pittsburgh was CHL heavy and European light. That makes me wonder if a guy like Valimaki might be a little more likely to be a Botts pick.

I want him so bad. I'm starting to think he's the third D taken.

 

[Sabre the Win]

So is everyone now all about Villimaki over Makar?

 

[Reddawg]

So is everyone now all about Villimaki over Makar?

Not me. If Makar is somehow gifted to us in the #8 spot, take the gift.

 

[Chainshot]

So is everyone now all about Villimaki over Makar?

Like them both, would still take Makar.

Heiskanen
Makar


Liljegren/Valimaki/Brannstrom/Vaakanainen

 

[sabrebuild]

I want him so bad. I'm starting to think he's the third D taken.

He sounds like risto quite a bit as a prospect, ignoring the Finnish thing.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

I'm all about Makar, Arizona gonna stab us for winning the tank and take him one spot ahead of us. If it happens I want Liljegren, has it all, good size, skating, puck rusher, big shot - other than what people are saying is not the greatest decision maker.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Is anyone going to be opposed to picking up DiPietro with the 37th? I see people knocking his size, but from the brief I've seen on him he kinda reminds me of Lundqvist and when checking stats his size is comparable. His stats this season look quite good and apparently he's rocking the Memorial cup (not watching it myself . ) If he develops right, even early in the 2nd round he could be a steal. I'd do it in a heartbeat if Ullmark goes to Vegas. But even if he stays, I'd probably take punt on him.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Is anyone going to be opposed to picking up DiPietro with the 37th? I see people knocking his size, but from the brief I've seen on him he kinda reminds me of Lundqvist and when checking stats his size is comparable. His stats this season look quite good and apparently he's rocking the Memorial cup (not watching it myself . ) If he develops right, even early in the 2nd round he could be a steal. I'd do it in a heartbeat if Ullmark goes to Vegas. But even if he stays, I'd probably take punt on him.

If Ullmark goes to Vegas and Peterson doesn't sign we could be in trouble. I would rather use the later picks to add to the forward core, especially on the wings.

Goalies are a crap shoot when drafting, If none of our goalies work out I rather just let some other team develop them and when they are stocked at that position, grab one. Goalies are available every season it seems lately. I mean we could have had Martin Jones for our 1st over Lehner or Cam Talbot.

 

[Reddawg]

If Ullmark goes to Vegas and Peterson doesn't sign we could be in trouble. I would rather use the later picks to add to the forward core, especially on the wings.

Goalies are a crap shoot when drafting, If none of our goalies work out I rather just let some other team develop them and when they are stocked at that position, grab one. Goalies are available every season it seems lately. I mean we could have had Martin Jones for our 1st over Lehner or Cam Talbot.

Alternatively, we could have either of those goalies and be lamenting the time when we could have had Lehner. It's not apples to apples taking one goalie out of his good defensive situation in SJ or Edmonton and putting him into our bad defensive situation in Buffalo.

 

[Paxon]

Is anyone going to be opposed to picking up DiPietro with the 37th? I see people knocking his size, but from the brief I've seen on him he kinda reminds me of Lundqvist and when checking stats his size is comparable. His stats this season look quite good and apparently he's rocking the Memorial cup (not watching it myself . ) If he develops right, even early in the 2nd round he could be a steal. I'd do it in a heartbeat if Ullmark goes to Vegas. But even if he stays, I'd probably take punt on him.

I don't want a goalie that high. There will be defensemen on the board. I'd rather draft someone like Farrance early there than spend it on a goalie. Lehner is young. We will know whether or not we lose Ullmark before the draft, but even still I'd rather continue drafting goalie in the mid rounds.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

I don't want a goalie that high. There will be defensemen on the board. I'd rather draft someone like Farrance early there than spend it on a goalie. Lehner is young. We will know whether or not we lose Ullmark before the draft, but even still I'd rather continue drafting goalie in the mid rounds.

This is the correct situation, you can wait until the third to draft a serviceable prospect in the goalie ranks. With Ullmark, Johansson, and potentially Petersen in the ranks and Lehner entering your age 26 season, you don't need to reach on a goalie.

 

[Dingo44]

Great Memorial Cup Final on NHL TV right now. Go Spitfires!

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

This is the correct situation, you can wait until the third to draft a serviceable prospect in the goalie ranks. With Ullmark, Johansson, and potentially Petersen in the ranks and Lehner entering your age 26 season, you don't need to reach on a goalie.

Ullmark likely off to Vegas (unless we give them some pick to get someone else)
Johansson hasn't exactly lit the world on fire statswise
Petersen likely doesn't sign here at all
Lehner has not convinced he is yet a long term solution in goal
Kasdorf is 25 and has not even smelled the NHL

I dont like the depth at G at all if Ullmark is gone so Id prefer one of the better goalie prospects to come our way even if their bust potential is higher than skaters. Maybe Minny 2nd/our 3rd on whoever from the top 4 ranked slips.

 

[hizzoner]

After watching the Memorial Cup and the OHL playoffs I found myself more befuddled than ever. Guys I liked did not produce. Then D. Raddysh who I thought had a good year, just sucked on a few key plays in the final---thought he might be a good FA signing for us.....

 

[Dex]

Ullmark likely off to Vegas (unless we give them some pick to get someone else)
Johansson hasn't exactly lit the world on fire statswise
Petersen likely doesn't sign here at all
Lehner has not convinced he is yet a long term solution in goal
Kasdorf is 25 and has not even smelled the NHL

I dont like the depth at G at all if Ullmark is gone so Id prefer one of the better goalie prospects to come our way even if their bust potential is higher than skaters. Maybe Minny 2nd/our 3rd on whoever from the top 4 ranked slips.

Kasdorf actually played one game with the Sabres at the end of 15/16 right after he signed. Sabres lost. Kasdorf let in 4 Goals on 30 shots. 0.867 Sv%. So not only did he smell the NHL, he smelled IN the NHL (ha-ha). His stats from Rochester and Elmira last year were abysmal. We can always hope for a miracle

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Kasdorf actually played one game with the Sabres at the end of 15/16 right after he signed. Sabres lost. Kasdorf let in 4 Goals on 30 shots. 0.867 Sv%. So not only did he smell the NHL, he smelled IN the NHL (ha-ha). His stats from Rochester and Elmira last year were abysmal. We can always hope for a miracle

I couldn't be any more wrong, right The group is quite a sad picture if Peterson and Ullmark are both gone. Doubt Botts allows such G depth coming from a team that had MAF and Murray lol

 

[NotABadPeriod]

I want the Sabres to draft 2 goalies this year: 1 in the 2nd-3rd rounds, and 1 mid-to-late round flier.

If Oettinger is there in the 2nd round when the Sabres pick, they better take him, because he's going to be the real deal. But I'm guessing his play this past year has moved him up into the 1st round.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

You should always be taking a goalie in the mid to late rounds, they are a crapshoot. If your scouts are really high on one then I think it's ok to take one in the 2nd or 3rd round. Talking a kid like Demko.

I'm gonna hate it if we lose Ullmark, big fan of his. It won't surprise me if he unseats Lehner at some point even as early as sometime this season.

 

[dotcommunism]

Moved a few posts to the roster speculation thread. Let's try to stay on topic about the draft here.

For reference:
On-topic: Talking about the organizational goalie depth and the way that impacts who the Sabres should draft.
Off-topic: Talking about what moves the team should make relating to the expansion draft. Talking about how the team can entice Cal Petersen to sign. Anything else that's completely unrelated to the draft.

(For the record, some of the posts moved were at least partly on-topic)

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

OK G draft sample:

Starter Goalies 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
(total goalies)

2010 0(2) 1(2) 0(1) 1(4) 1(4) 0(4) 1(4)
2009 0(0) 1(2) 0(4) 0(2) 0(5) 0(6) 0(1) - LOL
2008 0(2) 2(4) 0(3) 1(3) 0(3) 0(4) 0(4)
2007 0(0) 0(4) 0(3) 0(3) 0(2) 1(3) 0(5) - LOL
2006 1(4) 1(2) 0(2) 1(6) 0(7) 0(2) 0(2)
2005 2(2) 1(4) 2(3) 0(3) 0(6) 0(3) 0(2)
2004 2(4) 0(2) 1(4) 0(1) 0(3) 0(5) 0(5)
2003 1(1) 2(2) 0(3) 0(3) 0(5) 0(6) 0(4)

Total hit rate per round of starter or borderline/potential starters:
1st - 40%
2nd - 36%
3rd - 13%
4th - 12%
5th - 2.8%
6th - 3%
7th - 3.7%

Your chances in the first 4 rounds to land a starter still seem much much higher than the late rounds. Even then I don't particularly like the odds in the 3/4th round.

Having looked at this, I am starting to wonder where is this thing about late round goalies coming from to be honest. At least up 2010 it doesn't seem to be the trend. Unfortunately 2011+ is probably too early to tell as there may be some latish breakouts and did not include them in the stats.

Some more:
In 2003-2010 % by round in G taken is:

1st - 8.8%
2nd - 12.9%
3rd - 13.5%
4th - 13.5%
5th - 14.7%
6th - 20.5%
7th - 15.8%

In 2014-2016 % by round in G taken is:

1st - 1.5%
2nd - 15.8%
3rd - 20.6%
4th - 15.8%
5th - 12.7%
6th - 17.4%
7th - 15.8%

So the trend is not that much different except for whoever was picked in 1-3 rounds now is mainly picked in rounds 2-3. If you ask me if we want to have a decent chance to hit on a goalie the BUF 3rd is the one to use. Probably good 25% chance to draft a starter there, which is odds I'll take for a 3rd round pick.