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2016 Tank & Rebuild Thread: 6 Pts Behind Winnipeg. Tank Chugging Along

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SmoggyTwinkles said:
The field, unfortunately.

We have the best odds of any single team, but 14 other teams combine for way better odds :(

Really hope the Pens can squeak in without Malkin. We'll see..... :help:
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The field however doesn't get to share him.

I'm holding out hope now that the curse of Keon has been lifted our luck will turn.
 
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Nearly a perfect night last night!

Right now Edmonton is the biggest competition, however they have been playing great hockey as of late.

Assuming nothing crazy, the Leafs could play .500 hockey (7-7-1 - 70 Points) and still finish 30th.

Projected Finish: 5-9-1 [Total of 66 Points]

In order to reach 67 points, the teams need to go;

Arizona: 0-13-0 [0 Points Needed]
Vancouver: 0-14-1 [1 Points Needed]
Buffalo: 1-11-0 [2 Points Needed]
Columbus: 1-12-1 [3 Points Needed]
Calgary: 3-11-0 [6 Points Needed]
Winnipeg: 2-11-0 [6 Points Needed]
Edmonton: 3-8-0 [6 Points Needed]

TONIGHT:

DET W vs TOR
CBJ W vs TBL
 
Since it's been a late night, I won't be on later to post this:

PIT vs NYR -> Pens need to solidify their position as a playoff team. Philly is 2 points back, but the Pens hold the tie breaker anyway. Need to create some distance.
TBL vs CBJ -> CBJ with 1 or 2 points here would be good, priority to the Leafs pick. Not too picky about this game though.
TOR vs DET -> The Leafs need to start losing those games in hand to secure a top 4 pick, Detroit winning potentially helps the Pens pick stay lower IF the Pens can hold on to that wildcard spot.
 
Semantics said:
Pens will miss the playoffs and win the lottery, book it! Crosby is on the decline, they need their next generational talent.
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This is not as far fetched a conspiracy scenario as some people think. Also allows the Pens to trade either Crosby or Malkin and get them out of their cap hell.
 
Look out for Edmonton! Doing their best to tank! Oh wait this has been happening for many years now. I thought the Leafs were bad.

We must ensure we finish with 20% chance. Don't let the Oilers nab it.
 
The last time the 30th Overall team won the draft lottery was in 2010 when the Edmonton Oilers won the first of their three straight draft lotteries.

This was also the end of a 3 year stretch of 30th overall teams winning the lottery.

Since 1995, just 6/19 last place teams (2004 lottery doesn't count) ended up winning the draft lottery. 3 other times, the lottery winner didn't end up selecting first overall, due to only being able to move up 4 spots.

That was before the 30th placed team odds dropped 5% from 25% to 20%.
 
In the end it's a massive priority to get as low as we can. With how things work 4th overall needs to be the worst case scenario. Get the best chance possible for top 3 and hpoe for hte best.
 
We need to lock 30th! not just for the sake of Matthews but to get a top 4 pick!! If we don't get mattews at least we get a top 4 pick..
 
We need 2 wins tonight, ours and from Pittsburgh. I really want their 1st rounder, and I think that we won't catch any team infront of us, so victory tonight shouldn't hurt.
 
Tank Commander Cor said:
The last time the 30th Overall team won the draft lottery was in 2010 when the Edmonton Oilers won the first of their three straight draft lotteries.

This was also the end of a 3 year stretch of 30th overall teams winning the lottery.

Since 1995, just 6/19 last place teams (2004 lottery doesn't count) ended up winning the draft lottery. 3 other times, the lottery winner didn't end up selecting first overall, due to only being able to move up 4 spots.

That was before the 30th placed team odds dropped 5% from 25% to 20%.
Click to expand...

Different odds all together. But the likelihood of evening picking in the top three can essentially be generalized to flipping a coin. Regardless, we'll get a great prospect if we pick top 4.
 
I think you can cross off Arizona and Vancouver after last night. They're out of reach. Columbus and Buffalo are pretty much out of reach too. Some combo of another win or two for them or a loss or two from us and I'd put them out of reach too. Edmonton Calgary and Winnipeg are the teams to watch at this point in regards to our pick.

Re the Pens pick, just hope that they win and the Red Wings and Flyers lose.
 
LeafalCrusader said:
I think you can cross off Arizona and Vancouver after last night. They're out of reach. Columbus and Buffalo are pretty much out of reach too. Some combo of another win or two for them or a loss or two from us and I'd put them out of reach too. Edmonton Calgary and Winnipeg are the teams to watch at this point in regards to our pick.

Re the Pens pick, just hope that they win and the Red Wings and Flyers lose.
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Yeah, I have the leafs projected for 66 points, so 67 is the magic number.

Arizona hit that, and Vancouver needs just 1 point.

Tank Commander Cor said:
Nearly a perfect night last night!

Right now Edmonton is the biggest competition, however they have been playing great hockey as of late.

Assuming nothing crazy, the Leafs could play .500 hockey (7-7-1 - 70 Points) and still finish 30th.

Projected Finish: 5-9-1 [Total of 66 Points]

In order to reach 67 points, the teams need to go;

Arizona: 0-13-0 [0 Points Needed]
Vancouver: 0-14-1 [1 Points Needed]
Buffalo: 1-11-0 [2 Points Needed]
Columbus: 1-12-1 [3 Points Needed]
Calgary: 3-11-0 [6 Points Needed]
Winnipeg: 2-11-0 [6 Points Needed]
Edmonton: 3-8-0 [6 Points Needed]

TONIGHT:

DET W vs TOR
CBJ W vs TBL
Click to expand...
 
If they don't win the lotteries I am content with 4th overall - they could end up with a franchise player there - you never know how the player will develop

Need that 30th overall finish though
 
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