2016 Tank & Rebuild Thread: 6 Pts Behind Winnipeg. Tank Chugging Along

[cupcrazyman]

 

[BayStreetBully]

I know where you're coming from, but I personally am more concerned about the Pens pic.

I may be wrong, but I just can't see the Leafs not being last or second last. The Flames have Wideman back, Sabres are getting O'Reilly back, and the Oilers are getting better. Only the Jets are really sucking. If we end up last or second last, this means we get (if we miss the lottery) Chyrchrun or Dubois (or some other good Hunter pick). I'm very happy with that!

If Pens make it this year, we're going to be right at the 15 or 16 area. Someone on this board mentioned that even if they make it past the first round and get eliminated in the second round, we still end up picking in that range. That's gold! This year, we have those extra picks and players that can be packaged to move up to, say, 12 and grab a very good defender or other player.

Say the Pens don't get in though. Pens may very well: a) suck next year (which means no first rounder) or b) play much better. The latter could mean a pick in the 20's.

I just feel that the Pens pick is worth the most this year if they make it.

But you don't want to count your chickens before they hatch. We're not even that far away from Edmonton and Winnipeg, or even Calgary and Buffalo. Once we make up the extra games, we'll be even closer.

Yes, Pittsburgh's pick is worth more this year as opposed to next year, but Toronto drafting even 1 spot higher is more important when it's the difference between drafting 3-4, or 4-5. We can worry about Pittsburgh later.

 

[bobermay]

14 has less teams to beat out with each round.

Not true...

Because there's a 20% chance we win the 1st lottery, so the odds of the winning the 2nd lottery is the odds we are in the 2nd lottery(80%) multiplied by the odds of winning once we get there(which will be >20 depending on who wins the first lottery)

Once we lose the 1st lottery the odds of winning the 2nd are greater than 20% but before the first lottery happens you have to take into account we might not be in the 2nd lottery if we win the first.

For example lets say 2nd place wins the first lottery. Our odds of winning the 2nd lottery would then be 20/86.5 = 23.12%, the 86.5 coming from all the teams odds for the first lottery minus the 13.5% from the 2nd team that gets taken out of it for the 2nd draw.

So if you just by that number as an estimate for our odds on the 2nd pick once we get there(the lower a team wins it the worse our odds for the 2nd pick would be, for example if the 6th last team won the 1st lottery or odds of the 2nd one is 21.62%, but for simplicity sake lets just use 23.12%).

The our odds of winning the 2nd pick is .80 x 0.2312 = 18.50%, in reality it's actually lower than that because our odds for the 2nd pick get worse if a team lower than 2nd last wins it which is highly likely.

Now after all that to answer you actual question. The 14th last place team is highly unlikely to win the first lottery, they have 1% chance, which means the chance they're in the 2nd lottery is 99%, so when multiplying their odds of winning the 2nd pick by this number it's above 1% so their offs of getting the 2nd pick when all is said and done is higher than their chance of getting the first pick.

You'll notice there's a buffer line in there where teams above it odds of obtaining the 2nd pick is lower than the first pick, and teams below it is higher. Only the top 3 teams have a lesser chance at the 2nd pick than they do at the first pick because their odds of winning the first pick are the higher so the odds they're not in the 2nd draw impacts their overall chance of winning it, which they wouldn't really care about because not being in the 2nd draw means you won the first.




tl;dr: the odds of winning the first pick for teams at the top(or bottom of the standings if you will) is high enough that them winning it and not being in the 2nd draw affects their overall odds of having the 2nd pick, while there's a really high chance the teams with the worse percentages are still in the draw because they didn't win their first pick so their overall odds go up a smidgen.

Thanks for your detailed response.

Any statisticians know if this is the 'proper' way to evaluate this situation? What I mean is, shouldn't lotteries 1, 2 and 3 be treated as separate entities?

As soon as the first lottery is done, the previous odds shouldn't matter any more... its based on the first odds.

For instance, if the Leafs do not win the first lottery... they have a 23.12% chance as Canada4Gold mentioned.

Should we not be looking at it as (Lets assume picks 2 and 3 win the first two lotteries):
1st Lottery <- 20%
2nd Lottery <- 23.12%
3rd Lottery <- 26.66%

 

[RoyalGremlin]

How would we feel if the leafs traded up from 2-3-4 to 1st using all our picks from 2-3 rounds?

 

[BayStreetBully]

Not true...



Thanks for your detailed response.

Any statisticians know if this is the 'proper' way to evaluate this situation? What I mean is, shouldn't lotteries 1, 2 and 3 be treated as separate entities?

As soon as the first lottery is done, the previous odds shouldn't matter any more... its based on the first odds.

For instance, if the Leafs do not win the first lottery... they have a 23.12% chance as Canada4Gold mentioned.

Should we not be looking at it as (Lets assume picks 2 and 3 win the first two lotteries):
1st Lottery <- 20%
2nd Lottery <- 23.12%
3rd Lottery <- 26.66%

I'm no math guy either, but this is how I see it:

It's like roulette, where the odds of getting 10 reds in a row is the same as getting 5 reds and 5 blacks, if you treat each game as a separate entity. But if you play double or nothing 3 times, the games are no longer separate entities, but rather one continuous game of 3 chances.

So with the NHL lottery, the last place team has an 80% chance of NOT winning the lottery the 1st time, a 77% chance of NOT winning the 2nd time, and a 73% chance of NOT winning the 3rd time.

But because you have 3 chances to win the lottery, you can't just say you have a 73% chance of picking 4th overall. Because when you have 3 chances to win the lottery rather than just 1 chance, odds go up that you will get lucky at least 1 of those 3 times.

Math people- is this correct?

 

[ULF_55]

I'm no math guy either, but this is how I see it:

It's like roulette, where the odds of getting 10 reds in a row is the same as getting 5 reds and 5 blacks, if you treat each game as a separate entity. But if you play double or nothing 3 times, the games are no longer separate entities, but rather one continuous game of 3 chances.

So with the NHL lottery, the last place team has an 80% chance of NOT winning the lottery the 1st time, a 77% chance of NOT winning the 2nd time, and a 73% chance of NOT winning the 3rd time.

But because you have 3 chances to win the lottery, you can't just say you have a 73% chance of picking 4th overall. Because when you have 3 chances to win the lottery rather than just 1 chance, odds go up that you will get lucky at least 1 of those 3 times.

Math people- is this correct?

I have no idea ...

If even odds it would be 1/14, 1/13, 1/12

But it isn't even odds so that where the stats guys come in.

My question is how many balls are they going to use?

 

[Faltorvo]

I could use some help here

maybe a mod could weigh in

When I come to HF leafs I encounter a bet 365 pop up add that causes real havoc with my system

it does not allow my mouse pointer to react or activate anything

and this add often loads improperly , causing me to leave HF and return several times to get it to work

What I need to check is, is there an approved add like that or do I have some malaware buried deep in my system?

 

[Menzinger]

How would we feel if the leafs traded up from 2-3-4 to 1st using all our picks from 2-3 rounds?

From 4 perhaps, but I think I'd prefer largely just to stand pat

Certainly wouldn't trade all those picks to go from 2-1 when Laine and Matthews aren't all that far apart skill wise.

 

[Faltorvo]

How would we feel if the leafs traded up from 2-3-4 to 1st using all our picks from 2-3 rounds?

That would a complete and utter pass in my books, cost is way way way to high

I'll take the player in what ever slot we land on

and chase Stammer to become our #1 c,, with kadri,nylander, (maybe dubios),marner as our other options at C down the road

I would only consider your type of deal for a McDavid/Ekblad type player.

 

[Stigma]

But you don't want to count your chickens before they hatch. We're not even that far away from Edmonton and Winnipeg, or even Calgary and Buffalo. Once we make up the extra games, we'll be even closer.

Yes, Pittsburgh's pick is worth more this year as opposed to next year, but Toronto drafting even 1 spot higher is more important when it's the difference between drafting 3-4, or 4-5. We can worry about Pittsburgh later.

I hear ya. I just have faith in the tank I guess. LOL

 

[bobermay]

JVR-Stamkos-Okposo
Laich-Matthews-Nylander
Komarov-Helm-Soshnikov
Greening-Carrick-Hyman
Froese, Michalek

Rielly-Larsson
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Marincin-Carrick
Hunwick

Ward
Bernier

Bolded could be TDL bait depending on where we are in the standings and how Brown/Johnson/Kapanen/Leipsic/Loov are doing with the Marlies

Not sure if this would fit under the cap...

 

[Stigma]

How would we feel if the leafs traded up from 2-3-4 to 1st using all our picks from 2-3 rounds?

I think I'd do it. We have that extra pick in the 1st (hopefully) from the Pens for a D-man and we have a couple of extras in the 4 to 7 range, no? Hunter is a master with those late picks.

For Matthews - a potential/probable star C - I think it would be worth it. I wouldn't do this with our old scouting group in place though.

 

[hotpaws]

How would we feel if the leafs traded up from 2-3-4 to 1st using all our picks from 2-3 rounds?

two 2nds and two 3rds plus either the 2nd/3rd/4th , yea i'd do that

from what i've read Mathews is rated at least as good of a prospect as Eichel if not better and a num 1C with size is exactly what this team needs

we have plenty of depth pieces , we need a potential elite C and D

 

[TLeafsFan]

 

[ULF_55]

How would we feel if the leafs traded up from 2-3-4 to 1st using all our picks from 2-3 rounds?

Two needs, 1st. line center, #1 defender

If you could use all the Leafs picks from the first 3 rounds to land those two players I'd be in. I realize they would be landing potentials, not guarantees.

So Leafs 1st., Penguins 1st.(hopefully), 2*2nd., 2*3rd., and even one of Kadri and van Riemsdyk for Matthews and Chychrun and couple late round picks. Swallow hard!

Ideally, Leafs win Matthews, and that makes it easier to land the potential #1 defender, but I'm counting on the Leafs getting 4th. overall, and anything better is a bonus.

I think I'd do it. We have that extra pick in the 1st (hopefully) from the Pens for a D-man and we have a couple of extras in the 4 to 7 range, no? Hunter is a master with those late picks.

For Matthews - a potential/probable star C - I think it would be worth it. I wouldn't do this with our old scouting group in place though.

We hope Hunter is a master with those late round picks ...

 

[BayStreetBully]

Two needs, 1st. line center, #1 defender

If you could use all the Leafs picks from the first 3 rounds to land those two players I'd be in. I realize they would be landing potentials, not guarantees.

So Leafs 1st., Penguins 1st.(hopefully), 2*2nd., 2*3rd., and even one of Kadri and van Riemsdyk for Matthews and Chychrun and couple late round picks. Swallow hard!

Ideally, Leafs win Matthews, and that makes it easier to land the potential #1 defender, but I'm counting on the Leafs getting 4th. overall, and anything better is a bonus.

Matthews and Chychrun would be my dream scenario. If we won #1, and could somehow package Pittsburgh's 1st and other additionals to acquire the 4th or 5th overall pick, that would be just perfect.

I am also counting on getting 4th overall AND finishing last. I would be somewhat disappointed if we finished 2nd last. I don't mind 4th overall and I even expect it, but I still want a 20% shot at 1st overall.

 

[Woll Smoth]

Leafs vs Sens! We'll look back on this as a classic tank game in 40 years
24/30 teams in play today. Hopefully today is better than the last few days!

TOR vs OTT -> 3/4 points in the last 2 games. Let's put an end to this now, we get it, Mike, you're a great coach.
NYI vs BOS -> Islanders in OT would be nice, keeps some distance between the wildcard spot and if Boston should fall into a wildcard spot it'll hopefully be bumping PITS to the 2nd spot.
CAR vs BUF -> Chomp away at the wildcard threat's remaining games and create more distance between the Leafs. What's not to like here?
NYR vs DET -> Teams are too closely packed together in the 7-8-9 spots. PIT needs a few breaks to solidify their position
COL vs WPG -> 29th place team needs some points. Easy call here.
MIN vs MON -> Gun to my head, MIN. Otherwise don't even care about this game
PHI vs FLA -> Philly won't go away. Need the Panthers to help PIT out big here otherwise we have PIT @ 78, DET and PHI @ 77.
STL vs DAL -> Teams rank #2 and #3 in the league. 0 effect.
NSH vs VAN -> Nashville in OT helps both picks. Vancouver is already 9 points up on the Leafs, NSH only 3 points up on the Pens. Otherwise I'd go VAN here.
ARI vs EDM -> I spend a lot of time switching tabs between this page, the standings and today's games to do these write ups, until I get to EDM.
NJD vs LAK -> NJD, TOR won't catch them, and they won't catch PIT. LAK, up by 6 over PIT and in the west.
WSH vs SJS -> Top team in the league vs a team that could bump the PIT pick down from the west. Easy choice here.

 

[kk87]

Leafs vs Sens! We'll look back on this as a classic tank game in 40 years
24/30 teams in play today. Hopefully today is better than the last few days!

TOR vs OTT -> 3/4 points in the last 2 games. Let's put an end to this now, we get it, Mike, you're a great coach.
NYI vs BOS -> Islanders in OT would be nice, keeps some distance between the wildcard spot and if Boston should fall into a wildcard spot it'll hopefully be bumping PITS to the 2nd spot.
CAR vs BUF -> Chomp away at the wildcard threat's remaining games and create more distance between the Leafs. What's not to like here?
NYR vs DET -> Detroit wins, bumps PIT to WC2. Detroit loss, creates a bigger hill to climb to get into the Metro top 3.
COL vs WPG -> 29th place team needs some points. Easy call here.
MIN vs MON -> Gun to my head, MIN. Otherwise don't even care about this game
PHI vs FLA -> Philly won't go away. Need the Panthers to help PIT out big here otherwise we have PIT @ 78, DET and PHI @ 77.
STL vs DAL -> Teams rank #2 and #3 in the league. 0 effect.
NSH vs VAN -> Nashville in OT helps both picks. Vancouver is already 9 points up on the Leafs, NSH only 3 points up on the Pens. Otherwise I'd go VAN here.
ARI vs EDM -> I spend a lot of time switching tabs between this page, the standings and today's games to do these write ups, until I get to EDM.
NJD vs LAK -> NJD, TOR won't catch them, and they won't catch PIT. LAK, up by 6 over PIT and in the west.
WSH vs SJS -> Top team in the league vs a team that could bump the PIT pick down from the west. Easy choice here.

No Leafs fans can afford to cheer for a DET win right now. PIT getting the first wildcard spot would be infinitesimally better than them just barely missing the playoffs.

 

[LeafalCrusader]

RNH back for the Oilers tonight.

 

[I am I]

I'm no math guy either, but this is how I see it:

It's like roulette, where the odds of getting 10 reds in a row is the same as getting 5 reds and 5 blacks, if you treat each game as a separate entity. But if you play double or nothing 3 times, the games are no longer separate entities, but rather one continuous game of 3 chances.

So with the NHL lottery, the last place team has an 80% chance of NOT winning the lottery the 1st time, a 77% chance of NOT winning the 2nd time, and a 73% chance of NOT winning the 3rd time.

But because you have 3 chances to win the lottery, you can't just say you have a 73% chance of picking 4th overall. Because when you have 3 chances to win the lottery rather than just 1 chance, odds go up that you will get lucky at least 1 of those 3 times.

Math people- is this correct?

It is closer to 55% of picking 4th. I worked it out for the bottom few teams on a spreadsheet a while back. I'll dig it out when I'm not on mobile and post odds.

 

[fahad203]

Man that's one ugly line up...

Paul Ranger, I completely forgot about him.
I am ticked off as we couldn't get anything for Kulemin at the deadline but I am happy we didn't resign him.

Colton Orr? LOL

Troy Bodie, how quickly I forgot about him. Wasn't hi Lieweke's son in law?

I don't miss that management team, I don't miss that team.

 

[I am I]

I'm no math guy either, but this is how I see it:

It's like roulette, where the odds of getting 10 reds in a row is the same as getting 5 reds and 5 blacks, if you treat each game as a separate entity. But if you play double or nothing 3 times, the games are no longer separate entities, but rather one continuous game of 3 chances.

So with the NHL lottery, the last place team has an 80% chance of NOT winning the lottery the 1st time, a 77% chance of NOT winning the 2nd time, and a 73% chance of NOT winning the 3rd time.

But because you have 3 chances to win the lottery, you can't just say you have a 73% chance of picking 4th overall. Because when you have 3 chances to win the lottery rather than just 1 chance, odds go up that you will get lucky at least 1 of those 3 times.

Math people- is this correct?

It is closer to 55% of picking 4th. I worked it out for the bottom few teams on a spreadsheet a while back. I'll dig it out when I'm not on mobile and post odds.

 

[bobermay]

It is closer to 55% of picking 4th. I worked it out for the bottom few teams on a spreadsheet a while back. I'll dig it out when I'm not on mobile and post odds.

Thanks I am I

 

[Woll Smoth]

No Leafs fans can afford to cheer for a DET win right now. PIT getting the first wildcard spot would be infinitesimally better than them just barely missing the playoffs.

Actually looking back at it I agree with this. Philly has closed the gap way too fast. Pits does need a bit of breathing room

 

[Canada4Gold]

Not true...



Thanks for your detailed response.

Any statisticians know if this is the 'proper' way to evaluate this situation? What I mean is, shouldn't lotteries 1, 2 and 3 be treated as separate entities?

As soon as the first lottery is done, the previous odds shouldn't matter any more... its based on the first odds.

For instance, if the Leafs do not win the first lottery... they have a 23.12% chance as Canada4Gold mentioned.

Should we not be looking at it as (Lets assume picks 2 and 3 win the first two lotteries):
1st Lottery <- 20%
2nd Lottery <- 23.12%
3rd Lottery <- 26.66%

Those would be our odds for the 2nd and 3rd lotteries once we lose the first 1st 2 lotteries yes. But there's less than a 100% chance we are in those lotteries so when looking at it from the perspective of right now, there's a lower chance we actually get that pick.

For instance just imagine we play a game where we flip a coin until we get a tails, once we get a tails we stop.

We know that if we ever get to say the 4th flip, we have a 50% chance of getting a tail on said flip, but there's a 87.5% chance we don't get to a 4th flip because we get a tail on 1 of the first 3 flips. So the odds of actually ending our game on the 4th flip is 12.5% times 50% which is 6.25%. That is we get heads, heads, heads, tails

The NHL lottery is similar, once we get to that 2nd lottery, we have a probability of winning it anywhere from 20.20% to 23.12% chance of winning it, all depending on who wins the first lottery, but before knowing the result of the first lottery we don't know if our combinations still be in the 2nd draw will happen. Our lottery could end after the first draw, there's an 20% chance that happens, so 1 fifth of those odds(which drops it to somewhere between 16.16% to 18.50%) don't happen because we've already won the first lottery. So when determining our actual odds of winning that 2nd draw, it's less than the odds above of winning the 2nd draw once we know for a fact we're in the 2nd draw. Which drops it below 20%, That being the odds of winning the 2nd lottery once we know we lost the first is >20%, but the odds of the combination lose the first lottery, win the 2nd is below 20%.

Those odds in that chart and done using a spreadsheet, some dude on reddit ran it through a computer program to calculate the odds. I'm pretty certain it's correct

and for what it's worth I'm a not a stats major, but I am a math major and have done numerous stats course, including computer programming. I could have ran a program to spit out those numbers, but I didn't have to go through the trouble when someone else has done it and it appears to be correct.