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2016 Tank & Rebuild Thread: 6 Pts Behind Winnipeg. Tank Chugging Along

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Mikeyg said:
Truthfully, I've always thought that Voracek was a bit overrated. I personally wouldn't spend 8 mill on him.
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He's quite the player when you watch him play.

His point totals have taken a hit this year, but that's to be expected when your coach plays you 13 minutes a night with 4th liners lol (played a good chunk of games like this)
 
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Leafs play Detroit 2 times and Philly once.

I would suggest the Leafs should try and win those games.
 
KapG said:
He's quite the player when you watch him play.

His point totals have taken a hit this year, but that's to be expected when your coach plays you 13 minutes a night with 4th liners lol
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I mean for 8 million I expect more than a 23 goal season at some point. I can't justify dropping 8 on him.
 
The site has last place odds at

Leafs - 59%
Edmonton - 16%
Winnipeg - 12%
Calgary - 5%
Any other team - 9%

A 6 game losing streak would lock us into a bottom 5 spot pre-draft
 
Canada4Gold said:
I've given up on the Flyers losing games. Screw it, now cheering for the Wings to miss. Flyers seem like they're gonna pass the Pens :(



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If that picture doesn't work than this one, except it doesn't have the top 1, 2, 3 thing on the end

S43St0l.png
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I don't get why the #1 odds will decrease each round while the #14 increases.
 
Woll Smoth said:
Leafs top 4 pick > Pens mid round pick and whatever the Leafs end up with.

I'd rather not have the pens pick this year than have the Leafs slip out of the top 4
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Thats not likely to happen. Team is bad, but if they are going to win 3 games in their last 17 or so, I would want Detroit and Philly beat.

You don't have to worry about the Leafs slipping out of last.
 
bobermay said:
I don't get why the #1 odds will decrease each round while the #14 increases.
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Because there's a 20% chance we win the 1st lottery, so the odds of the winning the 2nd lottery is the odds we are in the 2nd lottery(80%) multiplied by the odds of winning once we get there(which will be >20 depending on who wins the first lottery)

Once we lose the 1st lottery the odds of winning the 2nd are greater than 20% but before the first lottery happens you have to take into account we might not be in the 2nd lottery if we win the first.

For example lets say 2nd place wins the first lottery. Our odds of winning the 2nd lottery would then be 20/86.5 = 23.12%, the 86.5 coming from all the teams odds for the first lottery minus the 13.5% from the 2nd team that gets taken out of it for the 2nd draw.

So if you just by that number as an estimate for our odds on the 2nd pick once we get there(the lower a team wins it the worse our odds for the 2nd pick would be, for example if the 6th last team won the 1st lottery or odds of the 2nd one is 21.62%, but for simplicity sake lets just use 23.12%).

The our odds of winning the 2nd pick is .80 x 0.2312 = 18.50%, in reality it's actually lower than that because our odds for the 2nd pick get worse if a team lower than 2nd last wins it which is highly likely.

Now after all that to answer you actual question. The 14th last place team is highly unlikely to win the first lottery, they have 1% chance, which means the chance they're in the 2nd lottery is 99%, so when multiplying their odds of winning the 2nd pick by this number it's above 1% so their offs of getting the 2nd pick when all is said and done is higher than their chance of getting the first pick.

You'll notice there's a buffer line in there where teams above it odds of obtaining the 2nd pick is lower than the first pick, and teams below it is higher. Only the top 3 teams have a lesser chance at the 2nd pick than they do at the first pick because their odds of winning the first pick are the higher so the odds they're not in the 2nd draw impacts their overall chance of winning it, which they wouldn't really care about because not being in the 2nd draw means you won the first.




tl;dr: the odds of winning the first pick for teams at the top(or bottom of the standings if you will) is high enough that them winning it and not being in the 2nd draw affects their overall odds of having the 2nd pick, while there's a really high chance the teams with the worse percentages are still in the draw because they didn't win their first pick so their overall odds go up a smidgen.
 
Leafsbeast said:
[/B]

Thats not likely to happen. Team is bad, but if they are going to win 3 games in their last 17 or so, I would want Detroit and Philly beat.

You don't have to worry about the Leafs slipping out of last.
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the problem is we don't get to pick and choose which games the Leafs win. If we assume the Leafs win those 3 games then there's 14 other games, a bunch of which they will win as well.

I'm not rooting for the Leafs to win 3 games just assuming they'll make up for it will losses in their other 14. A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush, I'll take my losses now and not assume that if they win these bunch that means they're going to lose the rest.
 
Projected Finish: 5-10-1 [Total of 66 Points]

In order to reach 67 points, the teams need to go;

Arizona: 1-13-0 [2 Points Needed]
Columbus: 1-12-1 [3 Points Needed]
Vancouver: 1-14-1 [3 Points Needed]
Buffalo: 2-11-0 [4 Points Needed]
Calgary: 3-11-0 [6 Points Needed]
Edmonton: 3-9-0 [6 Points Needed]
Winnipeg: 4-11-0 [8 Points Needed]

TONIGHT:

OTT W vs TOR
BUF W vs CAR
EDM W vs ARI (OT Preferred)
WPG W vs COL
VAN W vs NSH

TOMORROW

DET W vs TOR
CBJ W vs TBL
 
Pitts remaining games look like a tough run in
Man I want that pick
Philly playing well but I think they have a tough run in to Detroit always seem to sneak in man this looks tight
 
Canada4Gold said:
the problem is we don't get to pick and choose which games the Leafs win. If we assume the Leafs win those 3 games then there's 14 other games, a bunch of which they will win as well.

I'm not rooting for the Leafs to win 3 games just assuming they'll make up for it will losses in their other 14. A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush, I'll take my losses now and not assume that if they win these bunch that means they're going to lose the rest.
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I agree.

It's up to Pittsburgh to make the playoffs.
 
Woll Smoth said:
Leafs top 4 pick > Pens mid round pick and whatever the Leafs end up with.

I'd rather not have the pens pick this year than have the Leafs slip out of the top 4
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I know where you're coming from, but I personally am more concerned about the Pens pic.

I may be wrong, but I just can't see the Leafs not being last or second last. The Flames have Wideman back, Sabres are getting O'Reilly back, and the Oilers are getting better. Only the Jets are really sucking. If we end up last or second last, this means we get (if we miss the lottery) Chyrchrun or Dubois (or some other good Hunter pick). I'm very happy with that!

If Pens make it this year, we're going to be right at the 15 or 16 area. Someone on this board mentioned that even if they make it past the first round and get eliminated in the second round, we still end up picking in that range. That's gold! This year, we have those extra picks and players that can be packaged to move up to, say, 12 and grab a very good defender or other player.

Say the Pens don't get in though. Pens may very well: a) suck next year (which means no first rounder) or b) play much better. The latter could mean a pick in the 20's.

I just feel that the Pens pick is worth the most this year if they make it.
 
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