2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[Sweech]

There is no ehlers or connor level players available this draft at 7.

This one's looking a bit shallow and I don't see anyone that exciting beyond the top 4-5

Yeah, but wouldn't you have said, "there's no Connor level player at 17" last year?

 

[Constable]

I'm done pumping tires for Dubois so time to focus on Chicago's pick. I like Stanley but he's the exact player a contender picks, and I wouldn't be opposed to selecting Adam fox as well

 

[Huffer]

Some guys I'd like to know a little more about for the Chicago 1st / our 2nd:

Libor Hajek http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=195023
Jonathen Dahlen http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=212368
Nathan Bastian http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=245157
Tage Thompson http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=301349

 

[Grind]

Yeah, but wouldn't you have said, "there's no Connor level player at 17" last year?

Sorry, are we making this trade now or at the draft?


I was operating on the assumption we were making the trade at the draft.

If one of the top 5 guys is available then no, I don't trade the pick.

If not, yes, I trade that pick.

EDIT: I also want to clarify i had Ehlers and Connor pegged as the type of players they are post draft, prior to the draft. It's not like they were picked and then a year later we were like "oh my god, those guys are actually amazing, i'd never have guessed!", i had both as very likely future star players prior to the draft. I don't see those types outside of the top 5 rank'd guys.

 

[Grind]

Some guys I'd like to know a little more about for the Chicago 1st / our 2nd:

Libor Hajek http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=195023
Jonathen Dahlen http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=212368
Nathan Bastian http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=245157
Tage Thompson http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=301349

Of those the only one that looks remotely interesting to me is Tage Thompson.

None of the dmen have/are breaking the .5 ppg threshold, (though one's scoring OK in the allsvenskan..)

Everyone else is in their 18 y/o season and not really producing at the point you'd expect, and the ones that are had pretty weak 17 y/o season.

Not getting too excited for any of them, though Thompson's NCAA production as an 18 yearold is nice.

 

[FlyingW]

I totally agree with trading for Drouin if we don't have a top 5 pick. It also helps accelerate the reload and bounce back for this team.

 

[Grind]

I totally agree with trading for Drouin if we don't have a top 5 pick. It also helps accelerate the reload and bounce back for this team.

this is also key.

Getting a player 2-3 years ahead of the aging curve puts him more inline with the wheelhouse of Scheifele and Trouba.

going into next year we'd have a very solid young core of players 20-24 in
Drouin
Ehlers
Connor
Scheifele
Trouba

that changes our dynamic (especially if drouin can be a Center in the NHL, though i'm suss)

 

[ellismate]

Sorry, are we making this trade now or at the draft?


I was operating on the assumption we were making the trade at the draft.

If one of the top 5 guys is available then no, I don't trade the pick.

If not, yes, I trade that pick.

EDIT: I also want to clarify i had Ehlers and Connor pegged as the type of players they are post draft, prior to the draft. It's not like they were picked and then a year later we were like "oh my god, those guys are actually amazing, i'd never have guessed!", i had both as very likely future star players prior to the draft. I don't see those types outside of the top 5 rank'd guys.

Did you regularly watch the ushl or how is that even possible? We can't just look at bob McKenzies list and pretend like we have an intimate familiarity of the entire first round. I don't think anyone legitimately knew what was up on draft day. I recall most people being bummed when the isles traded up for konecny

 

[ps241]

I am not 100% sure there aren't some diamonds outside the top 5. There are kids like Klayton Keller and Dante Fabbro that are really tough for me to slot in. These type of guys are very dynamic and have high ceilings IMO. Our scouts are going to earn their keep this season. Like I have said too often I like Cam Dineen with our 2nd 1st round pick or I love him with our 2nd round pick if he's there.

The Drouin sweepstakes are a bit too theoretical for me but I doubt Stevie Y is slinging that asset for the 7th or 8th overall pick in the 2016 draft?

 

[veganhunter]

Tyler Benson dropping to our second pick would make me pretty happy.

 

[Daximus]

Who does everyone think will be the biggest Mid to late first round steal?

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Biggest steal will be Keller or DiBrinkcat or however you spell that name lol.

 

[veganhunter]

Who does everyone think will be the biggest Mid to late first round steal?

Benson pretty easily for me. Put up just under 1 P/G despite coming back from surgery and not being completely healthy and has only managed to play 30 games. He's going to go a lot later than his production in a healthy draft year more than likely would have warranted.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I do think there is some irony or not sure of the word, but.. Just imagine for a moment, we win the draft lottery and take the california born arizona bred franchise center with our pick.

Basically if not for Jets 1.0, Perhaps Matthews isn't even playing hockey. If they don't move to Arizona, perhaps Matthews the hockey player doesn't exist. It would be quite interesting to see him on the Jets 2.0. An Arizona boy. Fun.

Not sure why certain media types are hoping he ends up in Arizona, i mean, does he really make 1000's of people instantly becoming hockey fans?

 

[Grind]

Did you regularly watch the ushl or how is that even possible? We can't just look at bob McKenzies list and pretend like we have an intimate familiarity of the entire first round. I don't think anyone legitimately knew what was up on draft day. I recall most people being bummed when the isles traded up for konecny

No i didn't.

I was meh on not gettin gkonecny because i really liked Roslovic.

Why?

Because i have spent hours and hours and hours researching projection methodologies and determining what players are likely to succeed based on historical performance.

http://www.theprojectionproject.com

Is an online tool that pulls a cohort of players who have performed similarly to a draft eligible and gives you the break down of which ones were successful. This is a tool built by myself and Rheged.

The methodology is based on the research done by Josh Weissbock, @Moneypuck, and Rhys Jessop, Josh and @moneypuck are now statistical analysts for the Florida panthers.

Ehlers and Connor were both players that this sort of projecting methodology loved and had as surefire players.

There simply aren't guys performing like them outside the top 5 this draft.

Edit 2: for better or worse i'm definitly not most people when it comes to the draft.

edit 3: also...ISl's traded up for Barzal (who i had at or above Connor, they were neck and neck), Philly traded up for Konecny (who i was less enamored with).

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Some guys I like with our 2nd pick

Sam Girard - Of the "smaller" D men that will be around here I like him the best. The other guys like Dineen I think will end up being PP specialists that won't be able to handle players in the NHL. I don't think Girard is going to have a problem with that

Markus Niemelainen - I am big fan of this guy. I think he is going to explode next year. A huge D man who can skate. Good two way guy already. I think he will be a solid top 4 guy in the NHL

Riley Tufte - Never seen him play but have talked to people who have and they like him late in the 1st. 6'5 190 pounds and he can skate. Yes he reminds some people of Wheeler(oh ya Wheeler was drafted out of High School too). His one downside was he was just ok in his stint in the USHL with Fargo. An intriguing guy for sure at this point in the draft.

Brett Howden - I have seen Howden play a lot over the year and I think he has a lot of talent to go along with his size. He isn't his brother either as Brett is more of a thinker then his brother was. I think there is some good value here to be had, he will play in the NHL some day and I think he ends up slotting in on the 2nd line for some team in the future

Pascal Laberge - A two way center who is gritty and plays solid defensively. He isn't flashy on the offensive side but he does create a lot. There is a little bit of Bergeron in him and I think he would be a solid pick late.

James Greenway - Another guy I have not seen play but have heard a great deal about. I think he is a dark horse pick. Huge physical specimen who doesn't realize quite yet how gifted he is in that area. Going to BU next year and the sky is the limit.

 

[Grind]

I am not 100% sure there aren't some diamonds outside the top 5. There are kids like Klayton Keller and Dante Fabbro that are really tough for me to slot in. These type of guys are very dynamic and have high ceilings IMO. Our scouts are going to earn their keep this season. Like I have said too often I like Cam Dineen with our 2nd 1st round pick or I love him with our 2nd round pick if he's there.

The Drouin sweepstakes are a bit too theoretical for me but I doubt Stevie Y is slinging that asset for the 7th or 8th overall pick in the 2016 draft?

Fabbro i have no idea on.

He's doing amazing things in the BCHL...but...it's in the BCHL.

Keller is really good as well so there is that.

I'd probably tag Keller and Debrincat as the "diamonds" outside the top 6, but I don't think i like any of them as much as I liked Ehlers and Connor, and there in lies the rub.

Tyler Benson dropping to our second pick would make me pretty happy.

I'm not big on benson, but i do know he was expected to be a top 5 prior to the season.

That being said, so was Nick Ebert and we know where he ended up.

I'm sort meh on him, but he's definitly interesting if he were to fall as far as 25 or later.

Some guys I like with our 2nd pick

Sam Girard

Love Girard. If he was available at our next pick I'd be ecstatic. But i do also like Dineen, they both have a real good shot of being valuable Dmen.

Markus Niemelainen

Doesn't look bad. If he gets his scoring up over the .5ppg mark (he's quite close) i'd probably be ok with him. I think there are some other D at that area i'd like more.

Riley Tufte

Huge but no thanks as a 1st or 2nd round pick. Less then .5 PPG in the USHL has to many warning bells compared to what's likely to still be on the board.

Brett Howden

Don't mind him. Flirting with a PPG and had real decent scoring in his 16 y/o season as well. Not too shabby..

Pascal Laberge - A two way center who is gritty and plays solid defensively. He isn't flashy on the offensive side but he does create a lot. There is a little bit of Bergeron in him and I think he would be a solid pick late.

If we're not taking a D and he's available, this is my guy. Big guys, hailed as a two way player, AND produces at pretty damn good rate. Would be very ok with him at the end of the first.

James Greenway

I don't mind big physical dark horse picks, but i sure as hell don't want them in the first two rounds. Again, too many questions for me to be sold on a guy like that between 25-35

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not completely against acquiring Drouin, but he's damaged goods and I would call including our 1st a complete overpayment.

Damaged in what way? Broken leg? You've obviously made up your mind that this is all on Drouin. Since you know next to nothing about it that's just your bias speaking. You are entitled to your opinion but you really have precious little to base it on.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I'd trade Chicagos first for Drouin. But i wouldn't trade our own first. Not a chance.

I don't think Drouins value is very high at all. I'm not sure why it would be or how it could be even.

I like Drouin and think he has some talent but... this is gonna be his 3rd full year after being drafted coming up, drafted 2013, it's now gonna be the 2016 draft. I don't see how is value is a top 10 pick. I'm not sure what i'd give up for him right now actually, Chicagos first? Probably but it also depends on what's available when we pick.

Drouin obviously has some issues. Red Flags for sure. Is he worth taking a chance on? probably but again, i don't think his value is that high at all.

 

[Grind]

I'd trade Chicagos first for Drouin. But i wouldn't trade our own first. Not a chance.

I don't think Drouins value is very high at all. I'm not sure why it would be or how it could be even.

I like Drouin and think he has some talent but... this is gonna be his 3rd full year after being drafted coming up, drafted 2013, it's now gonna be the 2016 draft. I don't see how is value is a top 10 pick. I'm not sure what i'd give up for him right now actually, Chicagos first? Probably but it also depends on what's available when we pick.

Drouin obviously has some issues. Red Flags for sure. Is he worth taking a chance on? probably but again, i don't think his value is that high at all.

Pretty sure outside of the top 6 you historically have less then a 50% chance of getting a top six player.

I'm of the belief druinos that or close to it already

 

[CaptainChef]

Sorry, are we making this trade now or at the draft?


I was operating on the assumption we were making the trade at the draft.

If one of the top 5 guys is available then no, I don't trade the pick.

If not, yes, I trade that pick.

EDIT: I also want to clarify i had Ehlers and Connor pegged as the type of players they are post draft, prior to the draft. It's not like they were picked and then a year later we were like "oh my god, those guys are actually amazing, i'd never have guessed!", i had both as very likely future star players prior to the draft. I don't see those types outside of the top 5 rank'd guys.

Ok, who are you putting in the top 5 then? I think you'll change your tune on a couple more players before the draft, but yes... 7th or lower for Drouin would be worth the gamble. That or Chi 1st & good prospect (not sure if I'd do it for Petan yet though)

 

[Flair Hay]

Damaged in what way? Broken leg? You've obviously made up your mind that this is all on Drouin. Since you know next to nothing about it that's just your bias speaking. You are entitled to your opinion but you really have precious little to base it on.

What we do know is we are talking about a 20 year old that is putting his desire to accumulate points ahead of the team's need for the players to trust the coach's decisions are in the interests of helping the team win.

You're right about not knowing all the specifics. But what we do know is this guy has shown he is willing to put himself above the team because his next contract isn't what he hoped it would be on draft day.

It doesn't mean he can't do well with a fresh start. But it's a huge red flag. The fact he's sitting at home now is nobody's fault but his own.

Based on how good Drouin's scoring rate has been I'd be willing to trade Petan, our 2nd, and one of our lesser prospects for him. His age fits in very well.

 

[kxx]

What do you guys think the chances of Tampa Bay parting with Drouin is? Will Drouin really never play for Tampa again?

My impression is that its almost a bit mean / petty to have not traded him by now considering what has gone down. He's playing way below his skill level and it's not doing anyone any good.

Tampa are a good team but they haven't won a cup in almost 12 years and they must have been offered some great pieces at the deadline that would help immediately.

If I'm Yzerman I'm probably tired of the off-ice drama and want to get rid of it yesterday and want to get another trip to the SC finals.

Anyone care to highlight this for someone not as well versed in the business side?

Edit: I wouldn't feel great about trading our 1st for Drouin - I do get some red flags from the whole thing - but would consider Chi 1st + something else for it and hope there are other things going on that might help explain his view.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Some USHL guys that they might be looking at since we seem to like guys out of that league


Cameron Morrison - Big winger who skates well. Canadian who went down to the USHL and put up really good numbers. A riser on the draft charts. Going to Harvard next year

William Knierim - Big body power forward. Plays hard and in traffic. Not afraid. Good set of hands. Going to Miami(Ohio) next year

Matt Filipe - Another big good skating forward. Good hands and decent offensive instinct. Going to Northeastern next year

Some WHL guys for later in the draft

Josh Anderson - A big defensmen who thinks defense first. A very high bantam draft pick. His offensive game hasn't quite come along as much as you would like. I think there is talent there though to see that part of his game mature.

Brandon Hagel - Solid play making winger. Plays in Sutters defense first system. Very talented forward who sees the ice well. Plays an up tempo style.

Tanner Kaspick - Hard working winger/center. Hard forechecker and always moving his feet. Has skill to be a top line player. Not afraid to mix it up.

Jordy Stallard - His play has just gotten better as the season has gone along. Two way center with underrated offensive game. Real good release and shot. Become a very important player on Calgary

Patrick Bajkov - Smooth skating winger. Good offensive skill set. Plays in Kevin Constantine's defense first system.

Dylan Coghlan - A smooth skating d man who moves the puck very well. Size has gone up to 6'3 190 now. Offensive game has grown. A good project D man to take late.

Jacob Stukel - Passed over last year. Speedy winger with a great shot. Excelled after trade to Calgary. Could be a later round steal.

Brayden Burke - One of the WHLs leading scorers this year. Passed over last year. Very good offensive skill set, defensive game is solid. Not the biggest guy. But worth a look later on

 

[Grind]

Ok, who are you putting in the top 5 then? I think you'll change your tune on a couple more players before the draft, but yes... 7th or lower for Drouin would be worth the gamble. That or Chi 1st & good prospect (not sure if I'd do it for Petan yet though)

I definitly reserve the right to change my tune once the seasons done and I can really sink my teeth into the numbers

The age is a big thing for me. Drouin fits perfectly with our young groups age buy a guy we draft that won't be ready for three years is a bit of an issue