2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[Guerzy]

Why is that the common thought though? Just because he's played with absolute premier end talent doesn't mean he isn't or can't be a driver.

People are really high on Dubois, would he look like a driver playing with the same teammates as Tkachuk has?

Would Scheifele have been considered a passenger if he had?

I'm just wondering.

The secondary assists could possibly be just based on the circumstances more than anything else, given he plays with Marner and Dvorak. Perhaps without those guys on his line Tkachuk become the main guy who drives things?

Even at the end of the day if Tkachuk is more of a complimentary player who doesn't drive offense himself, that could still be very valuable if he were placed on a line with a really good center or say, Ehlers on the opposite wing.

 

[Sweech]

I'm just wondering.

The secondary assists could possibly be just based on the circumstances more than anything else, given he plays with Marner and Dvorak. Perhaps without those guys on his line Tkachuk become the main guy who drives things?

I'm just wondering as well. I see talent any time I've seen him, so I too wonder what makes others think he's not very good.

 

[veganhunter]

No one hates Tkachuk or thinks he's bad. Many people just think his production is probably a bit inflated and he would likely warrant being selected at the end of the op 10 rather than in the top 5.

 

[Aavco Cup]

No one hates Tkachuk or thinks he's bad. Many people just think his production is probably a bit inflated and he would likely warrant being selected at the end of the op 10 rather than in the top 5.

One post said different things

Which is exactly why if we're 3 i'd pick him. Dubois at 4. Puljujarvi at 5. Tkachuk actually never

 

[Daximus]

I've watched a number of London games and Tkachuk is definitely a passenger. Marner and Dvorak absolutely drive that line. Where Tkachuk excels is along the walls. He's a complimentary winger. If he isn't with elite talent he doesn't drive offence he gets the puck to guys that can. Make no mistake he is a very good player just not someone I'd spend a top 10 pick on.

 

[Grind]

29 34 and a next year pick for 10-20 and a 3rd.

as a general rule of thumb, the value isn't there for trading up.

Especially if your doing it to get a d-man.

I'd much rather take 2 d-men at 29 and 34 then trade up for one at around 10 ish.

There is a VERY good chance 1 of those top 4 dmen is complete bust or huge dissapointment.

I'd much rather play the odd's on two of the less heralded guys then doubling down on sergachyev or juolovi.

There's a very godo chance we can pull 2 similarly projectionable dmen with those picks.

 

[Grind]

This is some super interesting stuff, Grind.

What is the success rate of this work you do? Can you look back in previous draft classes and compare prospects from say, 2010 draft, for example, and see what the matches were for those players back then? then we can fast forward to today and compare how those players turned out in correlation to who they matched up to at the time. I'd like to know how effective these comparable matches are.

I don't have the numbers off hand, but if you look at the second edition of the sham sharron method (before it really became PCS) we bat at about the same, close to league average gming, and are generally real good at perdicting which fallers will succeed.

our CHL lists lined up almost identically to the last lists PCS published last draft so i'd recon as far as pts/gp perdiction we're pretty close (at least for CHL players).

Unfortunately, since we don't have a whole oodle of backlogged data to compare against i cant run a real good sim yet. We're hoping to have this setup over this summer...maybe...eventually...

I'd like to see, for example, who the following players compared to back in 2010, given we know what they are as players today. Some of these guys were pretty highly rated back then, and haven't amounted to much. I'd be curious to see their matches at the time. If this is even possible to do?

Erik Gudbranson
Jeff Skinner
Nino Niederreiter
Brett Connolly
Alexander Burmistrov
Brandon Gormley
Austin Watson

Absolutely. I'll look into these guys on my lunch break, expect a post from me around 1pm.

 

[Gm0ney]

Why is that the common thought though? Just because he's played with absolute premier end talent doesn't mean he isn't or can't be a driver.

People are really high on Dubois, would he look like a driver playing with the same teammates as Tkachuk has?

Would Scheifele have been considered a passenger if he had?

Wasn't there something a couple of pages back about Tkachuk having a lot of secondary assists inflating his point totals this year? Possibly overrated. That's where the 'hate' started I think.

 

[Grind]

I think it comes from the fact that he's had elite level players around him (Matthews in USNTDP and Marner in OHL) plus his scoresheet has a lot of secondary assists.

To me he never looks like a passenger when I've seen him. He's a good player with a lot of good assets and is he made to look better than he is? Sure, but on a worse team he'd still be very good.

It's absolutely a fair to question.

The problem is we don't know.

It's the unknown verse the known.

GENERALLY, you hope for Primary points, a greater share of point production, and a higher standing of team production.

The difference is, PLD does play with a very good player (Evgeni Svechnikov), but is still putting up the primary numbers.

The question is, does the higher offense from Tkchuck out weight the question of line mate carrying, 2 inches in heght, and ability to play center that PLD brings?

 

[garret9]

I'm just wondering as well. I see talent any time I've seen him, so I too wonder what makes others think he's not very good.

I don't think Tkachuk is bad... I do think his scoring numbers are inflated.

He's 1st in draft eligible adjusted points per game in the CHL.
He's 6th in draft eligible adjusted primary points per game in the CHL.
Scoring talent wise, I think he's probably somewhere in the middle of those two, so around 3-4...

Then add in projectable qualitative things like skating, IQ, etc. and quantitative factors like size, and he passes Abramov and DeBrincat, but I still don't put him ahead of PLD.

 

[Guerzy]

I don't have the numbers off hand, but if you look at the second edition of the sham sharron method (before it really became PCS) we bat at about the same, close to league average gming, and are generally real good at perdicting which fallers will succeed.

our CHL lists lined up almost identically to the last lists PCS published last draft so i'd recon as far as pts/gp perdiction we're pretty close (at least for CHL players).

Unfortunately, since we don't have a whole oodle of backlogged data to compare against i cant run a real good sim yet. We're hoping to have this setup over this summer...maybe...eventually...



Absolutely. I'll look into these guys on my lunch break, expect a post from me around 1pm.

I see, interesting stuff, Grind.

No rush, I look forward to the comparables. Pretty intrigued by some of this stuff.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Ladd was described as a complimentary player when he was drafted. There was/is a huge debate here whether or not Ladd is a top 6 forward or a 3rd liner.

I think if you are a team with elite level centers then Tkachuk has some value for you long term.

 

[Guerzy]

Ladd was described as a complimentary player when he was drafted. There was/is a huge debate here whether or not Ladd is a top 6 forward or a 3rd liner.

I think if you are a team with elite level centers then Tkachuk has some value for you long term.

Yep, I remember that really well, I was a Canes fan at the time (leading up to Jets returning in 2011). The Canes traded the 8th overall pick with Columbus to move up to #4 to get Ladd. I remember talking/debating with a friend of mine in high school and he wasn't a big fan of Ladd. I always liked him/liked the pick. Typical Jim Rutherford though to give up on a young player who doesn't step in immediately and contribute.

 

[Flair Hay]

Now I'm only going mostly off of what I've heard Button describe him as, and the numbers in this thread. But what's the difference between Tkachuk and Landeskog coming out of junior? Landeskog had far from elite junior scoring numbers and still managed to put up 50 pts his rookie year. And just about every year since.

Considering how defensively strong the dub was back in '04, I'd say his numbers line up pretty well with Ladd's as well. Except Ladd took more penalties than the other two...lol

Button seemed to think he has a very team oriented attitude, which fits him being seen as complimentary.

We lost a lot of physicality with Ladd, Kane and Bogo all being traded in the last 13 months or so. We don't have any skilled and physical prospects with size at any position.

I'd prefer to go after the C/W in Dubois and probably the D in Chychrun before him. Unless I'm really underrating Pulijarvi, I'd say he and Tkachuk should be neck and neck for 4th best player...

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Now I'm only going mostly off of what I've heard Button describe him as, and the numbers in this thread. But what's the difference between Tkachuk and Landeskog coming out of junior? Landeskog had far from elite junior scoring numbers and still managed to put up 50 pts his rookie year. And just about every year since.

Considering how defensively strong the dub was back in '04, I'd say his numbers line up pretty well with Ladd's as well. Except Ladd took more penalties than the other two...lol

Button seemed to think he has a very team oriented attitude, which fits him being seen as complimentary.

We lost a lot of physicality with Ladd, Kane and Bogo all being traded in the last 13 months or so. We don't have any skilled and physical prospects with size at any position.

I'd prefer to go after the C/W in Dubois and probably the D in Chychrun before him. Unless I'm really underrating Pulijarvi, I'd say he and Tkachuk should be neck and neck for 4th best player...

I think the problem is you here the term tossed about "he doesn't drive the play". I can understand that context here because he isn't a center but it doesn't exclude him from the conversation in the top 10 guys.

 

[Grind]

Erik Gudbranson:

base projections:
Rate: 50%
Elite: 10%
First: 20%
second: 10%
Third: 10%
Bust: 50%

League only projections:
Rate: 71%
Elite: 0%
First: 0%
Second: 43%
third: 14%
Depth: 14%

Closest Comp:
Lukas Krajicek
based on: same height, same scoring in same league during draft year, same age in draft year.

Other comps: James Delory, Rostislav Klesla, Marc Staal.


----------------

 

[ps241]

I'm just wondering as well. I see talent any time I've seen him, so I too wonder what makes others think he's not very good.

I don't hate him at all. I just value him less than others around him in the draft due to a few factors.

• winger
• complimentary type who has had amazing line mates the past two seasons.
• Late birthday (20 days away from being drafted last year and he is a 1997)
• Mostly in the season of our semi tank I want to come out with an asset that drives play more.

To be clear though I think he is really talented and the traits I love about him are his compete, IQ, and his ability to play nasty or finesse. I can see his raw production in his prime being every bit as good as the Fins just in a less dynamic way. With sweethearts like Connor and Ehlers I don't mind the mix of a dirty power forward to round out the lines. Its not what is wrong with Matthew at all I am just getting a little greedy.

 

[Duke749]

I think I'd be ok with Tkachuk around 7th or 8th. Any higher then 7th I'm not sure I would be ok with us taking him or if we would target him there. You gotta think there's at least 5 guys we would take first in Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, PLD, and Chychrun. At least that's my assumption. Then there's the other two defensemen in Serg and Juleovi that I think we take a long hard look at.

 

[veganhunter]

One post said different things

I think that's referred to as hyperbole. Although on HF I suppose you never know.

I'd be more comfortable with him around the 7 slot personally.

 

[Grind]

Gonna take up too much space if i do that for allt he aformentioned guys so i'll just boil it down

CLosest comp was the most similar player in their draft year: same league, closest scoring, closest height, same DY (17Y/O or 18Y/O).
Narrow projection is: Same league, within 1 inch of height, within .25 PPG in that league, same DY (17Yo or 18YO)
Broad projection is: within 2 NHLE's in draft year, within 2 Inches of height.(this is the criteria that had very similar success rates to the sham sharron 2.0 early PCS method in draft ranking)
Most Likely is simply the breakpoint that had the most cohorts within it (excluding Busts!)

Jeff Skinner

Closest Comp: Stephen Weiss
Narrow projection (league only): 80%.
Most likely: First line.
Broad Projection (2 NHLE, 2 inches height):69%.
Most likely: First line.
___________

Nino Neiderreiter

Closest Comp: Riley Holzapfel
Narrow projection (league only): 40%.
Most likely: Even Split: 1st/3rd line. small sample.
Broad Projection (2 NHLE, 2 inches height):28%.
Most likely: Third Line.
___________

Brett Connoly

Closest Comp: Peter Mueller
Narrow projection (league only): 100%.
Most likely: second line.
Broad Projection (2 NHLE, 2 inches height):58%.
Most likely: First line

___________

Alexander Burmistrov

Closest Comp: Patrick Taticek
Narrow projection (league only): 53%.
Most likely: Split - Third line and 1st line
Broad Projection (2 NHLE, 2 inches height):51%.
Most likely: Third line

___________

Brandon Gormley

Closest Comp: Mark Barberio
Narrow projection (league only): 0%.
Most likely: bust
Broad Projection (2 NHLE, 2 inches height):43%.
Most likely: 2nd pair

___________

Austin Watson

Closest Comp: Zack Kassian
Narrow projection (league only): 50%.
Most likely: Third Line
Broad Projection (2 NHLE, 2 inches height):62%.
Most likely: Third Line

 

[truck]

Not sure where the Tkuchuk hate comes from. He's likely to become an excellent NHL player.

Nothing against him. I like him, just don't see him as a franchise player - and I want a franchise player with a top 5 pick. I'd definitely take him over Nylander.

A likely top 6 pick and deservedly so.

I am down on the top talent in this draft more so than anything.

Mathews and Laine are awesome, but after that I'm no more enamored with these guys than I was with Ehlers or Connor.

 

[Jetabre]

I think I'd be ok with Tkachuk around 7th or 8th. Any higher then 7th I'm not sure I would be ok with us taking him or if we would target him there. You gotta think there's at least 5 guys we would take first in Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, PLD, and Chychrun. At least that's my assumption. Then there's the other two defensemen in Serg and Juleovi that I think we take a long hard look at.

This is about where I stand with Tkachuk as well. He'd be a fine pick just outside the top 5 but I don't think I'd want to use a top 5 pick on him.

 

[Duke749]

Interestingly enough, it only takes one team being really high on a single trait to take a guy(height&weight, position, IQ, skating, etc.).

 

[Grind]

get out the shame stick.


I made a transcription error.

PLD is not Eric Staal.

It turns out based on NHLE's he's Rick Nash.

If you limit to QMJHL players only, he matches close to Huberdeau, Grigorenko.

also: this is PLD 17 Y/O, andi believe Staal's was his 18 Y/O

 

[Duke749]

Now I'm not very knowledgeable with regards to our goalie situation in the system outside of Helly and Comrie. But is there anyone we might target later in the draft that anyone knows of? I'd imagine we might want to look at a goalie to add to the system with Helly likely being on the roster full time next year?