2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[csk]

I don't like what I've seen in Pul compared to some of the other guys, I'd have him at 4-5. But I haven't seen him as much as the people who put him at 2-3, so I have no idea.

I really like Laine.

Imagine we got Mathews. Turn this team around just like that. Another trade involving some of our younger talent and/or picks and we're a completely new team next year. And add Connor as well.

Puljujarvi is probably overrated. I wouldn't be to upset if we took someone else at 3OA

 

[Duke749]

Puljujarvi is probably overrated. I wouldn't be to upset if we took someone else at 3OA

What if we're 5th and Matthews, Laine, PLD, and Chychrun are off the board? How would you feel then? I know I'd probably be ok with him there for sure. Think it would be a very good value pick.

 

[csk]

What if we're 5th and Matthews, Laine, PLD, and Chychrun are off the board? How would you feel then? I know I'd probably be ok with him there for sure. Think it would be a very good value pick.

I'd be pretty happy about that, I don't think I could really be unhappy picking top 5... unless we **** up

 

[Daximus]

I'm really hoping for a C or D in this draft. Most of the higher ranked guys are wingers so I wouldn't be disappointed finishing somewhere in the 5-8 range. Guys like Chychrun, Juolevi, and Sergachev are players I would like to have on the Jets. Maybe Dubois is available there as well but I'm not too sure, his stock seems to be rising pretty quickly since the top prospects game.

There's a pretty good chance all three of those guys become NHL defenseman at the least. Will be interesting to see which one of them the Jets favor of we take one.

If we don't get Matthews I'm leaning towards wanting us to take Chych, Sergachev or Juolevi in that order.
Chych has the most upside I think, Sergachev is the safe pick and Juolevi is a bit of a wild card based on what I've seen. He's a very different player in London then he was on Team Finland at the WJC.

 

[Grind]

If we don't get Matthews I'm leaning towards wanting us to take Chych, Sergachev or Juolevi in that order.
Chych has the most upside I think, Sergachev is the safe pick and Juolevi is a bit of a wild card based on what I've seen. He's a very different player in London then he was on Team Finland at the WJC.

What makes you value those dmen over Laine?

Laine is in barkov territory right now.

Furthermore what makes sergachev more safe then Chych?

Their scoring almost identically, Chych is bigger, and has a bigger sample of work to draw from (similar scoring across two OHL seasons, where's all we have is one for Sergachyev). [EDIT: re-reading I think you were comparing Sergachyev to Juolevi as safe, not Chych, and neither before Chych, my bad)

I'm not big on any of the dmen just because I don't trust D in the first place, but I think if your going for a dman, chych is probably the guy.

My biggest thing is I don't know why you go for a dman over Laine, PLD, and PoolParty.

They are far more projectionable players.

if we're hell bent on sergachyev we sure as hell better be trading back.

 

[Daximus]

What makes you value those dmen over Laine?

Laine is in barkov territory right now.

Furthermore what makes sergachev more safe then Chych?

Their scoring almost identically, Chych is bigger, and has a bigger sample of work to draw from (similar scoring across two OHL seasons, where's all we have is one for Sergachyev). [EDIT: re-reading I think you were comparing Sergachyev to Juolevi as safe, not Chych, and neither before Chych, my bad)

I'm not big on any of the dmen just because I don't trust D in the first place, but I think if your going for a dman, chych is probably the guy.

My biggest thing is I don't know why you go for a dman over Laine, PLD, and PoolParty.

They are far more projectionable players.

if we're hell bent on sergachyev we sure as hell better be trading back.

I should have clarified I'd likely take Laine over all of them as well. Chych is by far and away the better pick he has the higher upside. Serge is safer than Juolevi in my opinion. I'd likely take Chych over PoolParty and when it comes down to PLD or Serge I'd definitely ponder it. If all of those names are off the table I might take Juolevi. We have so many damn wingers on the roster, in the system and waiting to be signed... we NEED defencemen I don't really care what anyone thinks as far as BPA. I'd take the defencemen if the difference is slight.

 

[Bob E]

If we draft 1 or 2, then it's fairly safe to assume we're taking either Matthews or Laine.

After that, who knows. Pulijujarvi, Chyckrun, PLD, Tkachuk all options. Not convinced you take a dman top 5 in this draft. Beyond 5, for sure.

 

[Grind]

So I looked into Chychrun by determining a proxy player and searching him through our Projection Project.

Steve Eminger matches Chychruns Height and NHLE scoring perfectly for his draft year.

Players within 2 inches of height and 2 NHLE's had 75% success rate (sample of 16)

that's actually a lot better then I anticipated.

He compares favorably toa lot fof real good Dmen (including pietrangelo, Subban, doughty, and Ekblad)

Actually, that gets me a lot more excited for him.

If we narrow to one inch in height it rises slightly to 78%, but you actually lose out on more Elite player comps.

If we further narrow to within 1 NHLE and 1 inch of height it rises to 83% success rate.

His closest comps are Steve Eminger (exact same draft year and height)
Alex Pietrangelo (1 inch taller, same draft year production)
Aaron Ekblad (1 inch taller, same draft year production, close birth date)
Cody Ceci (slightly smaller, slightly more productive)
Dimitry Kulikov (slightly smaller, slightly more productive)
Calvin De Haan (slightly smaller, slightly more productive)
Dan Hamhuis (slightly smaller, less productive)

EDIT: I'm now trying to find proxy's for the other top 5 players so i can determine how good he is relative. Last year with those numbers he'd have been a bad top 6 pick, but that was a pretty crazy year.

 

[Constable]

So I looked into Chychrun by determining a proxy player and searching him through our Projection Project.

Steve Eminger matches Chychruns Height and NHLE scoring perfectly for his draft year.

Players within 2 inches of height and 2 NHLE's had 75% success rate (sample of 16)

that's actually a lot better then I anticipated.

He compares favorably toa lot fof real good Dmen (including pietrangelo, Subban, doughty, and Ekblad)

Actually, that gets me a lot more excited for him.

If we narrow to one inch in height it rises slightly to 78%, but you actually lose out on more Elite player comps.

If we further narrow to within 1 NHLE and 1 inch of height it rises to 83% success rate.

His closest comps are Steve Eminger (exact same draft year and height)
Alex Pietrangelo (1 inch taller, same draft year production)
Aaron Ekblad (1 inch taller, same draft year production, close birth date)
Cody Ceci (slightly smaller, slightly more productive)
Dimitry Kulikov (slightly smaller, slightly more productive)
Calvin De Haan (slightly smaller, slightly more productive)
Dan Hamhuis (slightly smaller, less productive)

EDIT: I'm now trying to find proxy's for the other top 5 players so i can determine how good he is relative. Last year with those numbers he'd have been a bad top 6 pick, but that was a pretty crazy year.

Which is exactly why if we're 3 i'd pick him. Dubois at 4. Puljujarvi at 5. Tkachuk actually never

 

[Sweech]

Still don't think Tkachuk is as bad as everyone makes him out to be.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Still don't think Tkachuk is as bad as everyone makes him out to be.

Not sure where the Tkuchuk hate comes from. He's likely to become an excellent NHL player.

 

[kylbaz]

From what some guys here said is there are quite a few Dmen in this draft. What if we traded up with our Chi pick (assuming it's around 30). Like Chi's pick plus Dano for a 9-13 pick? Or the same package plus more for Hamonic?

 

[Grind]

Ok,

our system is really not working for the Finnish guys, we just don't have enough FEL players in the system to get real good comps, but their conversions put them pretty decent (considering the conversions really punnish young guys playing in the FEL)

Laine is about half way between joel Armia and alexsander barkov, and Puljujovi is Pacing well against Miko raantanen.

Auston Matthews is insane.

It's generally really hard for Euro league draftee's to put up good NHLE's, but mathews is currently at a 43.

His Closest Comps are Steven Stamkos and Derrick Brassard, with Bryan Little and Tyler Seguin being in there as well.

The Fact he's able to pull those kind of numbers and comps in a european league, as a draftee is pretty damn wild.

PLD is actually at 100% success rate as well, his closest comps in order are

Eric Staal
Thomas Vanek
Sean Couturier
David Backes
Bobby Ryan

edit: based on this, while i still like Chych more then I did...I don't know if i could take him over PLD. Eric Staal is almost a 1 for 1 proxy to PLD WHILE being a year older then PLD in his draft year.

 

[Constable]

Not sure where the Tkuchuk hate comes from. He's likely to become an excellent NHL player.

tkachuk plays with marner, jones, dvorak, etc. and personally i'd rather choose a player without that company putting up similar points.

 

[Constable]

Ok,

our system is really not working for the Finnish guys, we just don't have enough FEL players in the system to get real good comps, but their conversions put them pretty decent (considering the conversions really punnish young guys playing in the FEL)

Laine is about half way between joel Armia and alexsander barkov, and Puljujovi is Pacing well against Miko raantanen.

Auston Matthews is insane.

It's generally really hard for Euro league draftee's to put up good NHLE's, but mathews is currently at a 43.

His Closest Comps are Steven Stamkos and Derrick Brassard, with Bryan Little and Tyler Seguin being in there as well.

The Fact he's able to pull those kind of numbers and comps in a european league, as a draftee is pretty damn wild.

PLD is actually at 100% success rate as well, his closest comps in order are

Eric Staal
Thomas Vanek
Sean Couturier
David Backes
Bobby Ryan

edit: based on this, while i still like Chych more then I did...I don't know if i could take him over PLD. Eric Staal is almost a 1 for 1 proxy to PLD WHILE being a year older then PLD in his draft year.

pld becoming prime staal and better....my god

 

[Aavco Cup]

From what some guys here said is there are quite a few Dmen in this draft. What if we traded up with our Chi pick (assuming it's around 30). Like Chi's pick plus Dano for a 9-13 pick? Or the same package plus more for Hamonic?

I think we might be more likely to trade down and increase our number of picks. We have two picks likely very close together (currently 29 & 34) but no third rd pick.

 

[Constable]

I think we might be more likely to trade down and increase our number of picks. We have two picks likely very close together (currently 29 & 34) but no third rd pick.

29 34 and a next year pick for 10-20 and a 3rd.

 

[drumzan]

If we draft 1 or 2, then it's fairly safe to assume we're taking either Matthews or Laine.

After that, who knows. Pulijujarvi, Chyckrun, PLD, Tkachuk all options. Not convinced you take a dman top 5 in this draft. Beyond 5, for sure.

I don't think it's safe. Take a look at various rankings around. Pool Party is listed as 1st or 2nd in some of them. McKenzie made a comment too that there's no consensus among scouts for who is 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Aavco Cup]

29 34 and a next year pick for 10-20 and a 3rd.

That doesn't increase our number of picks.

More like #34 for a mid 2nd and a mid 3rd

 

[Guerzy]

This is some super interesting stuff, Grind.

What is the success rate of this work you do? Can you look back in previous draft classes and compare prospects from say, 2010 draft, for example, and see what the matches were for those players back then? then we can fast forward to today and compare how those players turned out in correlation to who they matched up to at the time. I'd like to know how effective these comparable matches are.

I'd like to see, for example, who the following players compared to back in 2010, given we know what they are as players today. Some of these guys were pretty highly rated back then, and haven't amounted to much. I'd be curious to see their matches at the time. If this is even possible to do?

Erik Gudbranson
Jeff Skinner
Nino Niederreiter
Brett Connolly
Alexander Burmistrov
Brandon Gormley
Austin Watson

 

[Huffer]

Still don't think Tkachuk is as bad as everyone makes him out to be.

Agreed. He's not on my "want" list per se, and I feel like I'd rather have PLD or Chych over him if were there at 4 or 5, but I'll still be happy if we were at say 6 and got him there. He's still an elite prospect.

 

[Sweech]

Not sure where the Tkuchuk hate comes from. He's likely to become an excellent NHL player.

I think it comes from the fact that he's had elite level players around him (Matthews in USNTDP and Marner in OHL) plus his scoresheet has a lot of secondary assists.

To me he never looks like a passenger when I've seen him. He's a good player with a lot of good assets and is he made to look better than he is? Sure, but on a worse team he'd still be very good.

 

[Guerzy]

Would it be fair to say Tkachuk will be more of a complimentary player who doesn't drive offense? where as some of the other top guys could be more focal points in driving offense on their own?

 

[Sweech]

tkachuk plays with marner, jones, dvorak, etc. and personally i'd rather choose a player without that company putting up similar points.

We should trade Roslovic and Ehlers ASAP.

They played with too many good players in junior.

 

[Sweech]

Would it be fair to say Tkachuk will be more of a complimentary player who doesn't drive offense? where as some of the other top guys could be more focal points in driving offense on their own?

Why is that the common thought though? Just because he's played with absolute premier end talent doesn't mean he isn't or can't be a driver.

People are really high on Dubois, would he look like a driver playing with the same teammates as Tkachuk has?

Would Scheifele have been considered a passenger if he had?