Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)

[supersonic jet]

I got a chance to watch Chycrun live twice this week. He has a very well rounded game not really weak in any area. I'd be fine if we ended up with him on our roster.

I also like Fabbro and Bitten. Didn't like Laberge at all and Mcleod didn't look like a top ten pick to me.

So how about?

7 Chychrun
20ish Fabbro
36 Bitten

Fabbro is not in Mckeens top 30 hopefully other scouts think the same way. Could be steal of draft.
Imagine a LD of Chychrun, Fabbro, Morrissey in 2 or 3 yrs. Enstrom traded on his last yr at trade deadline.with how much Morrissey gets injured, good to keep Charoit around.

 

[surixon]

Fabbro is not in Mckeens top 30 hopefully other scouts think the same way. Could be steal of draft.
Imagine a LD of Chychrun, Fabbro, Morrissey in 2 or 3 yrs. Enstrom traded on his last yr at trade deadline.with how much Morrissey gets injured, good to keep Charoit around.

Fabbro is a RD.

 

[supersonic jet]

Fabbro is a RD.

I guess Trouba will have to play on left. By the time he is ready Myers cap friendly deal will be over.

 

[Whileee]

Fabbro is a RD.

Yup. But grab him if he's good and available at around 25. Jets might be wanting to move Trouba or Myers at some point, and RHD are always in very high demand.

Interesting that Chevy mentioned that they might consider trading one of their first round picks if an opportunity arises. I wonder if that's to move up, or to pick up another player / prospect at a position of need.

I actually really like the efficiency of trading for picks at the deadline and trading them for players / prospects around the draft (when draft picks have the highest value).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Don't know his name but the head of Central Scouting was just interviewed on Leafs Lunch on TSN. He said that PLD, TK and Nylander had rated so close together that it had been hard to put them in order. I was surprised that he included Nylander in that. He then talked a bit about the gap between them and the 2 Finns. He said it was also very close although he still had Matthews and the Finns 1,2,3.

Listening to that interview got me thinking of a few things. 1)It sounds like the whole draft has tightened up. The tiers are closer together. 2)They have 6 forwards before the first D, Chychrun. Looks good if we want Chych or one of the other D. Also looks good for at least 1 of the top 6 Fs to drop if/when somebody takes a D earlier. 7th may not be too bad. 3)Although he did say Matthews is still #1 the way he spoke so highly of the next 5 made me wonder if perhaps the gap between Matthews and #2 might have narrowed a bit?

 

[surixon]

Yup. But grab him if he's good and available at around 25. Jets might be wanting to move Trouba or Myers at some point, and RHD are always in very high demand.

Interesting that Chevy mentioned that they might consider trading one of their first round picks if an opportunity arises. I wonder if that's to move up, or to pick up another player / prospect at a position of need.

I actually really like the efficiency of trading for picks at the deadline and trading them for players / prospects around the draft (when draft picks have the highest value).

I imagine Chevy is ready to really start to fine tune the roster around the kids. Given our prospects depth he likely is at a stage where it's no longer necessary to stock pile draft picks. He knows he's getting a good player with a top 10 pick so he can afford to move the other one for a roster player or in a package for another high pick.

 

[csk]

I guess Trouba will have to play on left. By the time he is ready Myers cap friendly deal will be over.

Myers' deal is not cap friendly

 

[garret9]

Myers' deal is not cap friendly

$ friendly though

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Fun quiz:
Here are HF bios on two defensemen taken in the 2008 draft.
1)Guess who they are
2)Guess whose career arc Chychrun's will turn out to more closely emulate.
PS-If you really know the answer to 2), you are either smarter than me....or a bull*******

History
1. 2007-08: After being drafted in the first round of the 2006 OHL Priority Draft------- was a solid performer for the ------ during the 2006-07 season. …. tied for fifth on his team for assists and recorded almost a half point a game as a rookie. --- ---was named an alternate captain for the 2007-08 season, and he responded by leading the team in scoring and finishing second overall among league defensemen with 50 assists. Named an OHL All-Star, ---played in the CHL Top Prospects Game and was voted top defensive defenseman in the OHL Coaches poll (tied with Geoff Killing), second among offensive blueliners and third in both the league’s smartest player and hardest worker categories

---------------------------------------------------------


History
2. 2006-07: Playing as a rookie ---finished in the top 10 amongst OHL rookies in points with 52 (seven goals, 45 assists). He was also in the top 15 in points among OHL defenseman. He led all -------- defenseman and rookies in goals, assists, points and plus/minus with a +40. Despite his stellar regular season--- struggled in the playoffs. In four games--- failed to record a point and had a plus/minus of -7.

2007-08: ----- became one of the top defensive prospects in the OHL. He was a participant in the Canada-Russia Summit Series, was ranked fifth overall, and the third highest ranked defenseman by NHL Central Scouting. ------eclipsed his goal total from last season and improved on his point total and plus/minus. His strong play was rewarded by being named to the --- Conference All-Star squad at the All-Star Classic

1 - Bogo
2 - Pietrangelo

Q2 - Pietrangelo - Come back in about 8 years to see that I was right.

Any similarity seen by Button or others between Bogo and Chychrun can only be a positive in favour of Chychrun at this point. (Your point perhaps?) Whatever went wrong with Bogo's career wasn't apparent prior to the draft.

 

[TommyKillian]

Very curious about Mcleod. I wonder if he looks attractive in the 6-10 range. His point totals aren't great but I can see him turning into what Frolik would look like as a centre. Blazing speed, great pker, smart and safe defensively. I'd be interested to know what others think. Definitely doesn't have the superficial appeal of other guys in this draft.

 

[Jetsfan87]

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/2016-draft-rankings-getting-down-to-crunch-time/

pretty interesting they have Chychrun down at 10. The idea of packaging the Chi pick plus others/prospect/player to move up and possibly come away from the draft with *fingers crossed* Matthews/Dubois and Chychrun would be amazing....

 

[surixon]

Very curious about Mcleod. I wonder if he looks attractive in the 6-10 range. His point totals aren't great but I can see him turning into what Frolik would look like as a centre. Blazing speed, great pker, smart and safe defensively. I'd be interested to know what others think. Definitely doesn't have the superficial appeal of other guys in this draft.

I thought he was pretty poor in the U18 games last week. He has speed to burn, but isn't that smart with the puck and has a below average shot. I would steer clear of him.

 

[garret9]

Very curious about Mcleod. I wonder if he looks attractive in the 6-10 range. His point totals aren't great but I can see him turning into what Frolik would look like as a centre. Blazing speed, great pker, smart and safe defensively. I'd be interested to know what others think. Definitely doesn't have the superficial appeal of other guys in this draft.

I rather not pull a Vancouver and grab a potential good player, missing potential exceptional players.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Thanks for this post and its why I asked lomiller1 the question.

Over on the main board I asked a leaf poster I respect the same question because he used the Bogo comp without context and when I pressed him this is what he replied:

Was using it more as a baseline, as I don't think Chychrun is a sure thing like Doughty and Ekblad were (best D out of the OHL in the past decade), then there is the 2nd tier of Pietrangelo, Bogosian, and Chychrun. Behind that there are the high-end but semi-risky offensive guys (Hamilton and Cam Fowler), high end shutdown (Nurse and Gudbranson), steady all-around (Maatta, Ceci) which are all a 3rd tier jest broken up into top 4 roles. Finally very-high risk but offensively gifted (Ellis, Murphy, DeAngelo and Del Zoto), lower quality all around (Percy, Bigras, De Haan) and a group to itself tantalizing project (Zadorov).

Personally I'd say Chychrun is in the Bogosian/Pietrangelo grouping, Jueolevi falls into the Maatta grouping but at the top of it, and Sergachev falls into the Hamilton grouping

In this context I look at it as a pretty big compliment.

I like the way your Leaf poster broke it down into comparable groups rather than pointing a finger at one individual. It seems to me to have captured the Chych, Juolevi, Serge comparison.

If the draft were to follow Central Scouting rankings the 6 top F's would go first leaving the 3 D available at 7 (Chych ).

I would be very happy to come away with Chychrun. Not so sure about the other 2 D.

 

[garret9]

there are some huge gaps in the NHL level of talent within those groups haha

 

[lomiller1]

Any similarity seen by Button or others between Bogo and Chychrun can only be a positive in favour of Chychrun at this point. (Your point perhaps?) Whatever went wrong with Bogo's career wasn't apparent prior to the draft.

You’re assumption that something had to “go wrong†is a bit of a strawman. The argument is that a player who is 6’2†210 lbs with exceptional skating can physically overwhelm 16 years olds in the CHL in a way they will not be able to in the NHL. At that level they are above average, but no longer so big or so fast they can dominate the game with their physical tools alone. To become more than a middle pairing D in the NHL they require puck skills and hockey IQ that was never demanded of them in the CHL.

It doesn’t necessarily mean he doesn’t have those abilities, but to me at least I haven’t seen convincing evidence Chychrun he does. I freely admit I could be mistaken, but to me he has the look of a player who dominated junior with his physical skills, but lacks the puck skills and hockey IQ that will be required of a top pairing D in the NHL.

 

[surixon]

You’re assumption that something had to “go wrong†is a bit of a strawman. The argument is that a player who is 6’2†210 lbs with exceptional skating can physically overwhelm 16 years olds in the CHL in a way they will not be able to in the NHL. At that level they are above average, but no longer so big or so fast they can dominate the game with their physical tools alone. To become more than a middle pairing D in the NHL they require puck skills and hockey IQ that was never demanded of them in the CHL.

It doesn’t necessarily mean he doesn’t have those abilities, but to me at least I haven’t seen convincing evidence Chychrun he does. I freely admit I could be mistaken, but to me he has the look of a player who dominated junior with his physical skills, but lacks the puck skills and hockey IQ that will be required of a top pairing D in the NHL.

Funny enough when I went to the U18 games I was expecting to see a defenseman along the lines of what you described. Someone who physically imposed his will in the game. What transpired was actually the opposit. Very little of his game was actually based around physically dominating the opposition. He dominated through good puck management, very good skating and puck rushing skills coupled with a good first pass. He showed real good awareness both offensively and defensively. He looked more smart and talented than physically imposing, but that is just my opinion based on seeing him a couple of times.

 

[Whileee]

I imagine Chevy is ready to really start to fine tune the roster around the kids. Given our prospects depth he likely is at a stage where it's no longer necessary to stock pile draft picks. He knows he's getting a good player with a top 10 pick so he can afford to move the other one for a roster player or in a package for another high pick.

Or maybe you use a roster player to nab a #2 or #3 pick, and then use #7 and #24 to maneuver up to get your favourite other top-6 player, and then trade prospects / young players to fill key roster gaps.

Trouba ---> Edmonton for #2/3 (Laine or Pulju).
#7 / #23 ----> #4 / #5 (PLD or Chychrun).

You then have Armia, Dano, Lemieux and maybe even Perreault to fill in the D gap left by Trouba.

 

[Whileee]

I rather not pull a Vancouver and grab a potential good player, missing potential exceptional players.

Thoughts on Nylander?

 

[surixon]

Or maybe you use a roster player to nab a #2 or #3 pick, and then use #7 and #24 to maneuver up to get your favourite other top-6 player, and then trade prospects / young players to fill key roster gaps.

Trouba ---> Edmonton for #2/3 (Laine or Pulju).
#7 / #23 ----> #4 / #5 (PLD or Chychrun).

You then have Armia, Dano, Lemieux and maybe even Perreault to fill in the D gap left by Trouba.

Yup. I think there are a number of players in play as well. It wouldn't surprise me if Burmie and one of Chariot/Postma are available. I still have a hard time seeing them give up Trouba for lottery pick unless it's for Mathews. Given our strength at forward it really doesn't seem necessary to me.

 

[zsam]

Or maybe you use a roster player to nab a #2 or #3 pick, and then use #7 and #24 to maneuver up to get your favourite other top-6 player, and then trade prospects / young players to fill key roster gaps.

Trouba ---> Edmonton for #2/3 (Laine or Pulju).
#7 / #23 ----> #4 / #5 (PLD or Chychrun).

You then have Armia, Dano, Lemieux and maybe even Perreault to fill in the D gap left by Trouba.

I like your scenario and would sign it right away ... just would consider Morrissey to fill in the gap on LD and keep the rest.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I came away "extremely impressed" with Fabbro and if we landed him with our 2nd pick I would lose my ****. However I place the odds of that happening similar to Connor falling to us last year at 17. I will need to see Juolevi play for the rest of the playoffs but at this snap shot in time I would chose Fabbro before him.

Now that might be a potential move up. Lets say we end up 25th. Would 25+36 be enough to move up to ~15 where Fabbro might be available?

 

[Whileee]

Now that might be a potential move up. Lets say we end up 25th. Would 25+36 be enough to move up to ~15 where Fabbro might be available?

Don't know if I would trade those two to move up for Fabbro. Are we sure we can't get someone like him at #25?

 

[drumzan]

Now that might be a potential move up. Lets say we end up 25th. Would 25+36 be enough to move up to ~15 where Fabbro might be available?

To be technical, the two picks the Chicago pick CAN'T be is 25 and 26. It'll either be 20-24 or 27-30.

 

[scelaton]

I know the 50 assists is Bogosian. Just not sure of the other.

Since he's ranked high, and not Doughty, it has to be Pietrangelo or Schenn.
I don't believe Schenn was every a scorer, and why he shouldn't have been drafted so high, so I'm going to guess Alex.

1 - Bogo
2 - Pietrangelo

Q2 - Pietrangelo - Come back in about 8 years to see that I was right.

Any similarity seen by Button or others between Bogo and Chychrun can only be a positive in favour of Chychrun at this point. (Your point perhaps?) Whatever went wrong with Bogo's career wasn't apparent prior to the draft.

Yes, Bogo and Pietrangelo (corrected Garret's typo in bold).
My point wasn't that the comparison with Bogo is a plus for Chych, although clearly Bogo was a stud prospect. It just shows how difficult it is to project D prospects, especially (IMO) ones with an advantage in straight line speed and strength.
My sesnse is that, at the highest tier, defensive IQ and judgement is the key, as they all have shown offensive potential. What I see with Juolevi that reminds me of Pietrangelo, is a very high +/- in Junior, which Bogo never had, even on a playoff team (apologies to Garret), and great success in international play, which requires excellent judgement, skill and adaptability to a different environment.
Truth be told, I would be happy with either.