Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)

[Boxertim]

I think all this Bogo hate is a little overstated. I think we would all be happy if we kept Bogo and he was able to play 80 games a year every year. Maybe I'm wrong.

 

[Constable]

I think all this Bogo hate is a little overstated. I think we would all be happy if we kept Bogo and he was able to play 80 games a year every year. Maybe I'm wrong.

he would have been fine if we didnt **** his development (well atlanta)

 

[Boxertim]

he would have been fine if we didnt **** his development (well atlanta)

I've asked that question before too....would Bogo have been better/less injury prone if he spend a few years in junior instead of having to play against men at 18

 

[EpicGingy]

he would have been fine if we didnt **** his development (well atlanta)

Bogo was about as NHL ready as it gets when he was 18.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You’re assumption that something had to “go wrong†is a bit of a strawman. The argument is that a player who is 6’2†210 lbs with exceptional skating can physically overwhelm 16 years olds in the CHL in a way they will not be able to in the NHL. At that level they are above average, but no longer so big or so fast they can dominate the game with their physical tools alone. To become more than a middle pairing D in the NHL they require puck skills and hockey IQ that was never demanded of them in the CHL.

It doesn’t necessarily mean he doesn’t have those abilities, but to me at least I haven’t seen convincing evidence Chychrun he does. I freely admit I could be mistaken, but to me he has the look of a player who dominated junior with his physical skills, but lacks the puck skills and hockey IQ that will be required of a top pairing D in the NHL.

Incorrect to call that a strawman. It may be flawed but it is not a strawman. A strawman is "A logic fallacy involving the purposeful misrepresentation of an argument in order to strike it down." There was no misrepresentation in my statement, purposeful or otherwise.

I should have been more clear. Based on the profile descriptions as they were in the OP a comparison to Bogo would be a positive. At the time all the experts were seeing Bogo as an outstanding prospect. The flaw that has prevented him from reaching the heights predicted for him was not seen at the time and I don't know that it has been definitively identified yet, at least beyond his excessive rate of injury. What I have read of Chychrun hasn't given any indication that he is simply physically overpowering opponents in a way that won't translate to the NHL. If Bogo can learn to play physically but with a little more care for his own health he may yet become an outstanding NHL D-man.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Or maybe you use a roster player to nab a #2 or #3 pick, and then use #7 and #24 to maneuver up to get your favourite other top-6 player, and then trade prospects / young players to fill key roster gaps.

Trouba ---> Edmonton for #2/3 (Laine or Pulju).
#7 / #23 ----> #4 / #5 (PLD or Chychrun).

You then have Armia, Dano, Lemieux and maybe even Perreault to fill in the D gap left by Trouba.

That kind of potential is there. Chevy hasn't shown that kind of trading capacity or the aggressiveness but he hasn't had the assets to work with either.

I'm not on the trade Trouba bandwagon but the idea of sending him to Edmonton for a really good return is intriguing. It leaves a big hole on D but we have possible ways to fill that.

If we were willing to move Trouba for the right return there would have to be several other teams who would be interested. Everybody need D, especially RHD.

 

[Whileee]

That kind of potential is there. Chevy hasn't shown that kind of trading capacity or the aggressiveness but he hasn't had the assets to work with either.

I'm not on the trade Trouba bandwagon but the idea of sending him to Edmonton for a really good return is intriguing. It leaves a big hole on D but we have possible ways to fill that.

If we were willing to move Trouba for the right return there would have to be several other teams who would be interested. Everybody need D, especially RHD.

Chevy indicated on H&L that part of the reason he hasn't been more active in trading is that he didn't have the assets to trade from a position of strength, where trading something significant would have left a big hole. Now he has much more depth and assets, and can probably move assets without creating a big hole.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Don't know if I would trade those two to move up for Fabbro. Are we sure we can't get someone like him at #25?

No, not sure at all. It would depend on scouts evaluations. It looks to me like this draft is going to drop of sharply somewhere late in the 1st or very early 2nd. I'm not sure how much that #36 would be worth to us. Of course if that is true it might not be worth a lot to other teams as well.

To be technical, the two picks the Chicago pick CAN'T be is 25 and 26. It'll either be 20-24 or 27-30.

Nothing wrong with being technical. As long as you are right. With the number of possibilities I assumed they could slot in there anywhere.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yes, Bogo and Pietrangelo (corrected Garret's typo in bold).
My point wasn't that the comparison with Bogo is a plus for Chych, although clearly Bogo was a stud prospect. It just shows how difficult it is to project D prospects, especially (IMO) ones with an advantage in straight line speed and strength.
My sesnse is that, at the highest tier, defensive IQ and judgement is the key, as they all have shown offensive potential. What I see with Juolevi that reminds me of Pietrangelo, is a very high +/- in Junior, which Bogo never had, even on a playoff team (apologies to Garret), and great success in international play, which requires excellent judgement, skill and adaptability to a different environment.
Truth be told, I would be happy with either.

Well that is really the rest of my point. I recognize that difficulty exists. I think it is because scouts do a poor job of evaluating the effects or the worth of size. They do the same with F's but to a lesser extent. Every year there are some kids picked high because they are big. Quite often they don't even score particularly well but somehow it is assumed they will do so in the future because they are big. The really tricky ones though are those like Bogo who are big and score. Do they score well because of skill or size or both? Will it translate? I think D-men could be projected as accurately as F's if the scout could learn to properly assess the effects of size. It happens at the other end of the spectrum as well. Skilled offensive players are passed over because they are small. They have probably always been smaller than their peers and have developed the skills to compensate. Those same skills will help them cope in the NHL.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Fabbro is a RD.

BPA.... left, right or otherwise

 

[ps241]

Funny enough when I went to the U18 games I was expecting to see a defenseman along the lines of what you described. Someone who physically imposed his will in the game. What transpired was actually the opposit. Very little of his game was actually based around physically dominating the opposition. He dominated through good puck management, very good skating and puck rushing skills coupled with a good first pass. He showed real good awareness both offensively and defensively. He looked more smart and talented than physically imposing, but that is just my opinion based on seeing him a couple of times.

My exact sentiments from my viewing.

 

[buyinnow]

A.Nylander article

 

[Constable]

Bogo was about as NHL ready as it gets when he was 18.

points =/= readiness

 

[surixon]

BPA.... left, right or otherwise

I would be quite fine drafting him, the post I responded to had him mentioned with regards to strengthening the LD position. Just pointing out that he played on the right!

 

[lomiller1]

Incorrect to call that a strawman. It may be flawed but it is not a strawman. A strawman is "A logic fallacy involving the purposeful misrepresentation of an argument in order to strike it down." There was no misrepresentation in my statement, purposeful or otherwise.

Not quite. A strawman is addressing a weak argument in support of a claim while ignoring stronger arguments that are actually being made.

In this case the arguments I'm making is that that he was never going to be a #1 D in the NHL because he lacked the hockey IQ, puck skills or decision making ability. By assuming something went wrong you effectively ignore that argument and conclude his inability to be a #1D in the NHL could not be predicted.

 

[EpicGingy]

points =/= readiness

It's not juat points. He was a physical beast at 18 and overpowred everyone in the OHL. On top of that he had a great training camp and a decent rookie season considering he broke his leg pretty early in.

He wouldn't have benefited from more junior years, they wouldn't solve his questionable decision making. And nobody could have predicted the injuries.

 

[kylbaz]

I think Tkachuk is gonna slip down quite a bit.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

It's not juat points. He was a physical beast at 18 and overpowred everyone in the OHL. On top of that he had a great training camp and a decent rookie season considering he broke his leg pretty early in.

He wouldn't have benefited from more junior years, they wouldn't solve his questionable decision making. And nobody could have predicted the injuries.

So are you saying experience has no effect on decision-making? That sounds insane..

 

[puck stoppa]

Thoughts on Nylander?

I know you werent asking me but I said a while back that he in underrated and will be a steal 7-10. He has a ton of skill, I won't say most in this draft but close to it, his knock was skating and its improved. He will be a good one, slightly behind his brother but his brother is top line IMO, this kid will be good.

 

[EpicGingy]

So are you saying experience has no effect on decision-making? That sounds insane..

No... that's not what I'm saying.

His years of NHL experience haven't done much in the way of fixing that flaw in his game. Another year in junior wouldn't chage that. Unless his rookie year did some sort of irreparable damage to his psyche.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

No... that's not what I'm saying.

His years of NHL experience haven't done much in the way of fixing that flaw in his game. Another year in junior wouldn't chage that. Unless his rookie year did some sort of irreparable damage to his psyche.

It very well could have.... that's the thing with rushing prospects....you never know what could have been....if patience had been utilized instead.

 

[JetsFan815]

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/2016-draft-rankings-getting-down-to-crunch-time/

pretty interesting they have Chychrun down at 10. The idea of packaging the Chi pick plus others/prospect/player to move up and possibly come away from the draft with *fingers crossed* Matthews/Dubois and Chychrun would be amazing....

Dubois listed at 5. It would be sooooooooooooooo Jets for us to miss out on Dubois by 1 spot, all due to a goddamn shootout goal , would be a fitting albeit tragic capper to this season from hell

A.Nylander article

Yikes... that's a harsh article, typically don't see that kind of hard analysis on draft eligible prospects that focuses so much on their negatives.

Keller is still my fav forward prospect after Big3/Dubois and maybe Tkachuck although I want to put him in the same tier as Tkachuck. I don't see Chevy going after Nylander anyways, even if we are set on a forward with our 1st pick and miss out on Big3/Dubois/Tkachuck, Keller fits more Chevy/TNSE type than Nylander. Or maybe we're all wrong at Chevy reaches for someone like Kunin or Brown at #7/8 and this board explodes

 

[csk]

Dubois listed at 5. It would be sooooooooooooooo Jets for us to miss out on Dubois by 1 spot, all due to a goddamn shootout goal , would be a fitting albeit tragic capper to this season from hell



Yikes... that's a harsh article, typically don't see that kind of hard analysis on draft eligible prospects that focuses so much on their negatives.

Keller is still my fav forward prospect after Big3/Dubois and maybe Tkachuck although I want to put him in the same tier as Tkachuck. I don't see Chevy going after Nylander anyways, even if we are set on a forward with our 1st pick and miss out on Big3/Dubois/Tkachuck, Keller fits more Chevy/TNSE type than Nylander. Or maybe we're all wrong at Chevy reaches for someone like Kunin or Brown at #7/8 and this board explodes

Really? The Jets, who had Trouba, Ehlers & Connor fall to them

 

[KingBogo]

Dubois listed at 5. It would be sooooooooooooooo Jets for us to miss out on Dubois by 1 spot, all due to a goddamn shootout goal , would be a fitting albeit tragic capper to this season from hell



Yikes... that's a harsh article, typically don't see that kind of hard analysis on draft eligible prospects that focuses so much on their negatives.

Keller is still my fav forward prospect after Big3/Dubois and maybe Tkachuck although I want to put him in the same tier as Tkachuck. I don't see Chevy going after Nylander anyways, even if we are set on a forward with our 1st pick and miss out on Big3/Dubois/Tkachuck, Keller fits more Chevy/TNSE type than Nylander. Or maybe we're all wrong at Chevy reaches for someone like Kunin or Brown at #7/8 and this board explodes

We have no idea where the Jets have Dubois on their board. Just because the Jets HFboard pegs a player in a certain spot doesn't mean that is who they would pick in that spot. And no one knows who ends up being the better player at the end of the day.

 

[drumzan]