2016 NHL Draft

[Chain]

When planning for the future, remember that draft picks are four to five years away from real impact. A Doughty or Kopitar is a one in five thousand shot. Can't develop a team on those odds. Giving away NHL level players, even "garbage" players or "plugs" for draft picks can have a dramatic effect on a teams development curve. Not every pick pans out. Not every pick is an impact player. Trevor Lewis was a high level scorer pre-NHL. Ironically, he'd probably score more goals in a less defensively schemed system. IF, he decides to move to another team. Then, we can all complain about his lack of effort when playing for the KINGS.

Just be careful what you trade for.....

I don't think that's the right way to look at it. You're right that most draft picks wont turn into a Kopitar or a Doughty, and many don't pan out to be even close. But that's not a reason to not rely on drafting to field the majority of the team. It's precisely why you have to have so many draft picks, especially high ones, and be very careful when trading them. Quite a few people say "well, a lot of draft picks don't pan out so it doesn't hurt to trade the pick" but that's looking at it backwards imo. The way I see it, because a lot of draft picks don't pan out is precisely why you have to be careful trading picks and hold onto most of the 1st to 4th round ones because you don't know who will and who wont pan out. Still, a significant enough # do pan out that high round picks are very valuable. Obviously a good scouting and development staff can significantly increase the likelihood of it working out. But if you play 3 hands of poker or 5, all else being equal, you're more likely to win a game with 5 hands.

Look at our team now:
Kopitar - drafted 1st round 2005
Doughty - drafted 1st round 2008
Quick - drafted 3rd round 2005
Toffoli - drafted 2nd round 2010
Pearson - drafted 1st round 2012
Martinez - drafted 4th round 2007
King - drafted 4th round 2007
Brown - drafted 1st round 2003
Clifford - drafted 2nd round 2009
Lewis - drafted 1st round 2006
Andreoff - drafted 3rd round 2011
Shore - drafted 3rd round 2011
Nolan - drafted 7th round 2009
Carter - traded for
Gaborik - traded for
Muzzin - traded for
LeCavalier - traded for
McNabb - traded for
Lucic - traded for
Enroth - traded for
Versteeg - traded for
Schenn - traded for
Scuderi - traded for
McBain - traded for
Greene - traded for

Notable traded players
Jonathan Bernier - drafted 1st round 2006, played All-Star
Brayden Schenn - drafted 1st round 2009, scored 64 goals combined the last 3 seasons

Going back to 2003 we've had a total of eleven 1st round picks. 5 of them are currently playing on the team and 4 of those have played or do play at an All-Star level. 2 more players who were our 1st round picks that we traded, Bernier and Schenn, have both developed into very good NHL hockey players. So you're looking at the odds of a 1st round draft pick developing into a strong player who can make significant contributions to the team at around 1 in 2 in a good system. But it's no guarantee so you've gotta have enough picks to waste on the player you didn't know was going to be the lemon half the time. That's why giving up 1st-2nd round draft picks hurt - at best you're giving up any room for error and at worst giving up future all-star level players. Plus, if you're going to get any cheaper salary years out of the players it's most likely to be a good player who's up and coming rather than a good veteran you traded for or tried to sign in free agency.

Most good teams have a core that comes primarily from their own drafted players and most of those will be drafted in the top 3-4 rounds. In general, the best way to build a winning team that has any kind of staying power is to build primarily through drafted players and supplement with traded players.

 

[damacles1156]

Pretty much our only pick.

Price you pay for Two Stanley Cups and some shots at more.

 

[bob77]

Still waiting for the 6' 3", 400 lbs, ex-college offensive tackle as goalie. Trained to block passes (pucks) and for quick lateral moves.
Hell, at that size, he'd only have to move a foot or so.

Can't wait to hear Jim Fox say, "pound for pound, the best goalie in the world!"

Geico made a commercial of that?

 

[bob77]

Geico made a commercial of that?

Amstel Light commercial!!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KFiN9C4t3rc

 

[YP44]

So, with four possible picks at the moment.
A 2nd
A 4th
Conditional 5th
Conditional 7th
Not much to get excited about.

Who are some players Futa and company can look at with our 2nd rounder(mid 50's)?

Hope they can grab a couple more picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds while shedding some $$/weight off the books.

If Logan Stanley falls to the 2nd round I want LA to move up to get him. Although I think we need more forward prospects at the moment

 

[YP44]

Not sure that is true anymore... Since Toffoli we have drafted:

Christopher Gibson
Valentin Zykov
Roland McKeown
Alex Lintuniemi
Erik Cernak

in the second round.... not sure if anyone of them look like players at this point. Granted it's early still.

McKeown looks like he will be pretty decent. After that it is too early. Gibson was a disappointment

 

[DOSKI]

I don't think that's the right way to look at it.... But that's not a reason to not rely on drafting to field the majority of the team. It's precisely why you have to have so many draft picks, especially high ones, and be very careful when trading them....

Most good teams have a core that comes primarily from their own drafted players and most of those will be drafted in the top 3-4 rounds. In general, the best way to build a winning team that has any kind of staying power is to build primarily through drafted players and supplement with traded players.

Great analysis and something I actually support. The bolded section is what raised the KINGS into a cap era elite team. I was thinking about, and did not communicate well, also considers prospect development. Which includes the usual couple of years for a solid AHL player to transition to the NHL club.

From your list, let me cherry pick a few guys, Kopitar, Doughty, and Quick - 2005 -2008. Kopi and DD stayed with the big club, were outstanding and have remained so. But, they didn't even round out into an elite, playoff, challenging core until 2010 / 2011. About 3-5 years development for systems play, NHL level fundamentals, attitude and leadership. We know what happened next. Other players took a bit longer (Muzzin). Some (Toffoli, Pearson) hit the sweet spot of a stacked enough playoff team coupled with their skillset, rookie innocence and energy, to ride the wave to a Cup. Still, each of these players went through down times (slumps!!, trade this overrated pylon!!!) before winning a Cup. Some still ride that hockey roller coaster and some always will. That's just hockey. In general, can we say 3-5 development years, or so?

It's not just a question of keeping high picks, trading high picks, developing picks. (And I'm not accusing you of not knowing this stuff, it's just the way I'm writing about it.) It's the balance between those three elements and the relationship of that three part balance to the actual 5-7 year window a specific core has, to make runs at Cups. Creating and maintaining overlapping Cup Windows, if you will.

What Lombardi and staff has done is an amazing sports story. Doesn't mean he's always right, or doesn't make horrible mistakes (own goals!) but that's the nature of sports, right? One players bonehead play is another teams proof of excellence.

 

[Primakov!]

Look at our team now:
Kopitar - drafted 1st round 2005
Doughty - drafted 1st round 2008
Quick - drafted 3rd round 2005
Toffoli - drafted 2nd round 2010
Pearson - drafted 1st round 2012
Martinez - drafted 4th round 2007
King - drafted 4th round 2007
Brown - drafted 1st round 2003
Clifford - drafted 2nd round 2009
Lewis - drafted 1st round 2006
Andreoff - drafted 3rd round 2011
Shore - drafted 3rd round 2011
Nolan - drafted 7th round 2009
Carter - traded for
Gaborik - traded for
Muzzin - traded for <-- free agent
LeCavalier - traded for
McNabb - traded for
Lucic - traded for
Enroth - traded for <-- free agent
Versteeg - traded for
Schenn - traded for
Scuderi - traded for
McBain - traded for <-- free agent
Greene - traded for

Just some minor corrections.

 

[GellMann]

Hey Kings fans, disgruntled Sabres fan here. When LA hosted the draft in 2010, did they charge you guys admission? Sabres are charging even though Florida was free last year, I want to see how common it is for teams to charge.

 

[Telos]

Hey Kings fans, disgruntled Sabres fan here. When LA hosted the draft in 2010, did they charge you guys admission? Sabres are charging even though Florida was free last year, I want to see how common it is for teams to charge.

No, I went and the tickets were free.

 

[Trolfoli]

Hey Kings fans, disgruntled Sabres fan here. When LA hosted the draft in 2010, did they charge you guys admission? Sabres are charging even though Florida was free last year, I want to see how common it is for teams to charge.

There'll probably be a few Leaf fans there to see their 1st overall pick. Could drive up demand.

 

[Kingsfan1]

McKeown looks like he will be pretty decent. After that it is too early. Gibson was a disappointment

Mckeown definitely is looking real good. Also Cernak is looking to be a sure fire NHLer. I believe he will eventually take Voynovs spot. He is looking real promising to me.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Mckeown definitely is looking real good. Also Cernak is looking to be a sure fire NHLer. I believe he will eventually take Voynovs spot. He is looking real promising to me.

I'd love to think Cernak has the raw tools for offense but they're not showing results yet. Will be interesting to see how he does at a higher level. Seems to be more of a Gudas then a Voynov, but I mean that in a good way.

And McKeown is still a wild card like crazy. He had a better year this year, but he's still a guy with no identity and just a good all around game. Certainly a guy that could be an NHLer but he still seems far off, and certainly not a guy to worry about as much as some around here do (i.e. he wouldn't be helping us next year and probably not the following year either).

I am really curious to see what this draft has in store. I'm sure we'll see some moves to replenish picks, but with organizational needs everywhere, I wonder what it will look like, and I'm oddly excited

 

[deeshamrock]

There's a 17 yr old center Will Bitten, who is currently ranked 43rd and doable for the Kings in the 2nd round. The article below, penned by someone who has watched every OHL player this year, cites him as a 'steal'

http://thehockeywriters.com/meet-the-steal-of-the-2016-nhl-draft/

Bitten is one of the most gifted skaters I’ve seen in a long time. He makes it look so easy out there. What propels him higher for me is that he can find the right spot on the ice to make plays happen utilizing his speed. He is one of the smartest players in this draft. Not only can he find openings, he can position himself in such a way that playing defense against him is a tough task. And, he has one of the better shots in this draft.

What’s good about Bitten is that he’s just as good defensively as he is offensively. He uses his speed and skills to track down opponents and disrupt them from doing anything productive.

He got praise and high marks here as well, pointing out his speed, skating ability and hockey smarts.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=245965

including ...

Offensively, he has a very creative streak, and knows what kinds of plays he can make in all situations; he also has an exceptional release on his shot, which he can get off quickly. Defensively, he is a buzzsaw that will not let up on the opposition, creating problems for them by causing turnovers and playing strong positionally. Will Bitten has all of the tools to become a very dangerous two-way forward that can produce strong numbers at the next level.

 

[YP44]

Mckeown definitely is looking real good. Also Cernak is looking to be a sure fire NHLer. I believe he will eventually take Voynovs spot. He is looking real promising to me.

I hope that voynov's spot is filled before cernak is ready to take it

 

[Brodeur]

Hey Kings fans, disgruntled Sabres fan here. When LA hosted the draft in 2010, did they charge you guys admission? Sabres are charging even though Florida was free last year, I want to see how common it is for teams to charge.

I went in 2010, 2011, and 2015 and tickets were free. I think this is the first year that the NHL is charging money. In the past, I wouldn't have minded if the NHL charged a fee but donated the proceeds towards some charity. It would have prevented folks from claiming the max number of free tickets, some of which went unused. I had plans to go in 2012-13 but it was "sold out" but there were plenty of empty seats.

 

[YP44]

There's a 17 yr old center Will Bitten, who is currently ranked 43rd and doable for the Kings in the 2nd round. The article below, penned by someone who has watched every OHL player this year, cites him as a 'steal'

http://thehockeywriters.com/meet-the-steal-of-the-2016-nhl-draft/


He got praise and high marks here as well, pointing out his speed, skating ability and hockey smarts.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=245965

including ...

i am intrigued for sure

 

[Brodeur]

Carolina owner Peter Karmanos used to own the Plymouth Whalers until he sold the franchise last year and they got relocated to Flint. Carolina had a long history of drafting Plymouth kids, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Hurricanes nabbed Bitten.

 

[YP44]

Carolina owner Peter Karmanos used to own the Plymouth Whalers until he sold the franchise last year and they got relocated to Flint. Carolina had a long history of drafting Plymouth kids, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Hurricanes nabbed Bitten.

is wisnewski done? He seems like the hurricanes true only bad contract (maybe Staal) and with their cap room I wonder if they would do Gaborik + Scuds. they get the better player. LA gets cap relief after next year. I am not big on Wiz, just want out of Gaborik's deal

 

[Brodeur]

is wisnewski done? He seems like the hurricanes true only bad contract (maybe Staal) and with their cap room I wonder if they would do Gaborik + Scuds. they get the better player. LA gets cap relief after next year. I am not big on Wiz, just want out of Gaborik's deal

Given how well (relatively speaking) their young D did in the 2nd half, trading Wisniewski might be plausible. But it is important to note that while his cap hit is high (5.5), his salary is a bit lower (3). Carolina's not a team that'll spend to the cap, so the actual salary is what they'll care about.

Gaborik makes 6 mil next year and it gradually decreases. I'm not sure Carolina is going to be looking to take on that sort of contract.

 

[YP44]

Given how well (relatively speaking) their young D did in the 2nd half, trading Wisniewski might be plausible. But it is important to note that while his cap hit is high (5.5), his salary is a bit lower (3). Carolina's not a team that'll spend to the cap, so the actual salary is what they'll care about.

Gaborik makes 6 mil next year and it gradually decreases. I'm not sure Carolina is going to be looking to take on that sort of contract.

true but unless they bring in a big name UFA they will be hard up to get to the floor to will they not?

If Gaborik plays he will bring veteran goal scoring help, if he gets injured they will not have to pay him (insurance). Could work for them no?

 

[Basilisk]

There's a 17 yr old center Will Bitten....

LoL! What, is he a vampire or something?

 

[KingLB]

Carolina owner Peter Karmanos used to own the Plymouth Whalers until he sold the franchise last year and they got relocated to Flint. Carolina had a long history of drafting Plymouth kids, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Hurricanes nabbed Bitten.

You think anyone wants to draft a player out of the current dumpster fire that is Flint? Seems risky when he is "stuck" there for 2 years.

 

[Brodeur]

You think anyone wants to draft a player out of the current dumpster fire that is Flint? Seems risky when he is "stuck" there for 2 years.

I'm sure teams will gauge the situation differently. But it's not unusual for players to get moved around in juniors, especially in their last (expected) year. I'd imagine a guy like Bitten would get moved for future picks eventually. It's not unheard of to see a player get moved twice after they've been drafted (Ryan Spooner went from Peterborough to Kingston to Sarnia).

 

[Basilisk]

Which of our current roster players and/or failing prospects will Dean attempt to swap for picks in this draft?