2016 NHL Draft: Russian Prospects

[timlap]

I came here to say alot of what you said after watching these videos. Kudos, I agree on everything you had to say, great post.

Thanks!

 

[Caser]

Nice read, bit of an off year for Russian picks. That said I think Sergachev goes top 10, Rubstov possibly goes top 20 and that could be it for Russia in Round 1 of the draft this year.

I will disagree that this is an off year: 2 or 3 first rounders is basically as every year, but after that it is looking pretty solid: at least 6 decent mid-rounders and a huge and deep ocean of opportunities for the scouts to do their homework and get a late round steal.

I'm just speculating, but could it be that he's a good skater in short bursts and tight spaces (most important in hockey, imo) but just okay in top end speed, especially for a smaller guy as smaller guys are often speedy?

I'm only guessing, because I haven't watched him. But there are so many aspects to skating, and I think such differences are often behind these arguments when one person says a guy is an excellent skater and another says he's not.

That's pretty much what I meant - maybe there are some aspects that I'm just failing to see.

 

[Caser]

Some random thoughts about McKenzie's ranking:

• 5 scouts have Sergachyov as the best D of the draft and the other 5 scouts have him outside the Top10 - so kind of polar opinions.
• It is stated that Top20 is set as somewhat consensus and Rubtsov is out and I guess that means that, looking at the current draft order, he might fall to 25-th pick.
• Abramov at 52 is kind of as expected - size matters, you know; still I won't be amazed, if some team at the end of the first will reach for him.
• Korshkov and Kayumov are a bit higher then I'd expect, my guess is that those scouts just don't make an adjustment for the KHL factor (and actually why shoud they, it's up to GMs).
• Maltsev at 80 is surprising, but not too surprising - the lower body strength is considered one of the most important things for the transition to the pro level.
• Was expecting to see Kuznetsov in the ranking, but looks like his draft stock is somehow trending down recently, what had I missed? On the other hand, totally not surprised by Sokolov not making the ranking.
• Also not surprised that Berdin is outside the Top 80, as goalies are basically in the ranking of their own and it is rather deep there this year.

 

[malkinfan]

I agree with Sudbury's coach, Sokolov is going to be the steal of the draft. He shouldn't fall out of the 1st round although he obviously will. final 12 games of the season he had 11 goals, as he was in his better condition than the beg. of the season. Compare that to Nylander who had no goals in his final 10 games. Also, Sokolov did that with a dislocated shoulder that would pop out regularly while he was on the ice (currently recovering from shoulder surgery) on a terrible team. Next year he will be in better conditioning, on a better team and fully healthy. I don't think 60 goals is out of the question. Smart teams draft on potential - this guy has outrageous potential.

 

[Fantomas]

We'll see. I am not as optimistic as you on Sokolov. Being 20 pounds overweight is a red flag with me, as is his lowly reputation with Russian coaches.

Abramov is the guy I am pulling for in this draft. It does not really matter if he goes high. I just want to see him land with a good organization.

 

[kp61c]

We'll see. I am not as optimistic as you on Sokolov. Being 20 pounds overweight is a red flag with me, as is his lowly reputation with Russian coaches.

Abramov is the guy I am pulling for in this draft. It does not really matter if he goes high. I just want to see him land with a good organization.

i'm just hoping it is not some canadian club, garbage teams with a bias towards russians. the chances of him busting are much higher there.

 

[timlap]

We'll see. I am not as optimistic as you on Sokolov. Being 20 pounds overweight is a red flag with me, as is his lowly reputation with Russian coaches.

Abramov is the guy I am pulling for in this draft. It does not really matter if he goes high. I just want to see him land with a good organization.

I'm intrigued by Sokolov, but in some ways he reminds me of Sean Day. With both of them I'm wondering if they actually really want to play hockey and if they're willing to do all the work that will require.

I would love to draft Abramov. He's a first rounder for me.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Actually, Abramov's style reminds me Panarin, and he can kinda be Panarin of this draft. Kinda because Panarin was undrafted, and Abramov is going to be picked the latest in the 2nd. But he will be much better, than this, with Panarin's level of production, which is top5 of this draft (or even top3).

 

[Caser]

Noticed that Kayumov is listed in McKenzie's rankings at 5'11" and 171 lbs, I guess those are his combine measurements, as he was listed much smaller everywhere else.

Just thought that if Rubtsov falls out of the Top20, I could think of some activity in terms of teams wanting to trade up for him at the draft.

We'll see. I am not as optimistic as you on Sokolov. Being 20 pounds overweight is a red flag with me, as is his lowly reputation with Russian coaches.

Weight issues can be overcomed just by a one good 'Gary Roberts style' offseason, his shoulder issues seem more of a red flag to me than that.

 

[Fantomas]

Weight issues can be overcomed just by a one good 'Gary Roberts style' offseason, his shoulder issues seem more of a red flag to me than that.

Weight issue come back later in life. If a guy is predisposed to have weight issues, he will have weight issues.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

In my final top 60 draft rankings, these are the Russian players I listed.

5. German Rubtsov-Center
6. Mikhail Sergachyov-Defenseman
23. Dmitry Sokolov-Winger
25. Vitali Abramov-Winger
44. Vladislav Sukhachyov-Goalie
60. Igor Shvyryov-Center

I'm a big fan of this Russian crop, although some call it a down crop. I think Rubtsov is very likely to be a top 6 center. With how valuable centers are in the NHL, I think him being a center helps him out. After Matthews, is there another center prospect who's more likely to be a top 6 NHL center than Rubtsov? Maybe Dubois, and I have Dubois ahead of him in my rankings, but I think Rubtsov is highly underrated. People claim he's just a defensive center, but he's put up points for years at every level he's played at, he's a very smart forward with good playmaking ability, good puck skills and he has an underrated shot that if he learned to use more, it could become a big weapon. Sergachyov is a really high upside player. He's a little nonchalant with his play, but the tools are all there. I think he has the best tools of any defenseman in this draft. I have him as my second defenseman after Chychrun. Sokolov is a player I am really high on. I don't think people can just forget that he played the whole year with a bad shoulder. His production isn't even something I'm that worried about. I'm more worried about his desire with how overweight he started the season. There's a lot of risk, but he's a top 5-10 talent. I think he has to be in the top 25.

Abramov is really skillful and his production was excellent, the only concerns are that there have been so many smaller wingers with high level skill who weren't able to become top 6 NHL forwards. Its a guessing game with players like this. Sukhachyov is a player I have unusually high, but I think he's one of the better goalies in this draft. I remember him being mentioned a few months ago, and since then, I've gone back to watch some tape, and I'm a fan. He makes crazy reflex saves and has really good athleticism. He consistently puts up good performances as well, so its not just good tools. I don't think he's that small and he doesn’t play that small, he might be about the height of some of the smaller goalies in the NHL, but his height is not a problem, like some might think. If it is, this just shows that you have to be 6'3 or 6'4 to be a goalie in the NHL because Sukhachyov has incredible talent and he's been very productive for years. I have him as my #3 goalie. Shvyryov is an intriguing prospect. Good skater, puck skills, playmaking. The production is really good in the MHL. He lead the league in points for U-18 players, and he even got his KHL debut with one of the best KHL teams at the age of 17.

I only made a top 60, but since then, I've went back and studied this Russian crop even further. These are some of the other Russian players that I think could be drafted prospects. I'm only counting first year draft eligibles, the other guys everyone already knows about.

Ivan Kosorenkov-Really high upside winger. Size is good at 6'0, but he needs to get stronger. Big shot and a good skater. He's a sniper, but he has good puck skills and playmaking. His decision making needs to get better and he needs to play better defense. Third Round

Mikhail Berdin-Goalie with decent, but not great size. He has good reflexes, aggressiveness and usually positions himself well. A good goalie who profiles well, but is not exceptional at anything. Third Round.

Artur Kayumov-Small winger with good skating, skills, passing, hockey IQ, shot, but defensive side of the game isn't there. Third Round

Yevgeni Mityakin-Big power winger who has good finesse to his game. He has a good shot, good playmaking, good hockey IQ and puck protection. He needs to become a better skater and could improve his defense. He got 16 KHL games this season. Fourth Round.

Mikhail Maltsev-Can play center or winger. Big and strong player with good skating, a good shot and some hands. He plays a 200 foot game, and is a hard working player. Limited offensive upside in the way of passing, puck skills, hockey IQ. Likely only a middle 6 forward. Fourth Round.

Nikita Makeyev-Loud offensive tools from a right handed shooting defenseman. Defensively, he’s not that good yet, but not a total disaster. I think he’ll figure out the defensive game offensively. The one problem? He’s listed at 5’9, and that might be generous. It’s a gamble. You could get a Torey Krug type, but defenseman of this height have trouble making it in the NHL. Fifth Round.

Vladimir Kuznetsov-He's a big winger with size and power, skating is decent for a player his size. He has a good shot as well. Playmaking and puck skills aren't his forte. Not very good defensively. Fifth Round.

Alexander Yakovenko-He doesn’t profile all too different from Makeyev. Makeyev is further along defensively, and I think he has better offensive potential. If you want to go off of listed heights, Yakovenko is an inch taller at 5’10. Fifth Round.

Dmitri Alexeyev-Pretty generic defenseman who's decent in a lot of areas, but not exceptional or terrible in any area. Size, skating, puck skills, shot, defensive play are all good. I've not seen any exceptional areas or big problem areas. Sixth Round.

The three players that I don’t know much about that I am curious if anyone knows anything about are Andrei Altybarmakyan, Yegor Zaitsev and Ilya Konovalov. Their stats lead me to believe that they could be good prospects, although I can’t give my own opinion on them.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

Are there any high level second year eligible players?

 

[Caser]

Weight issue come back later in life. If a guy is predisposed to have weight issues, he will have weight issues.

Yeah, Tarasenko has those issues coming back basically every summer.

In my final top 60 draft rankings, these are the Russian players I listed.

5. German Rubtsov-Center
6. Mikhail Sergachyov-Defenseman
23. Dmitry Sokolov-Winger
25. Vitali Abramov-Winger
44. Vladislav Sukhachyov-Goalie
60. Igor Shvyryov-Center

I'm a big fan of this Russian crop, although some call it a down crop. I think Rubtsov is very likely to be a top 6 center. With how valuable centers are in the NHL, I think him being a center helps him out. After Matthews, is there another center prospect who's more likely to be a top 6 NHL center than Rubtsov? Maybe Dubois, and I have Dubois ahead of him in my rankings, but I think Rubtsov is highly underrated. People claim he's just a defensive center, but he's put up points for years at every level he's played at, he's a very smart forward with good playmaking ability, good puck skills and he has an underrated shot that if he learned to use more, it could become a big weapon. Sergachyov is a really high upside player. He's a little nonchalant with his play, but the tools are all there. I think he has the best tools of any defenseman in this draft. I have him as my second defenseman after Chychrun. Sokolov is a player I am really high on. I don't think people can just forget that he played the whole year with a bad shoulder. His production isn't even something I'm that worried about. I'm more worried about his desire with how overweight he started the season. There's a lot of risk, but he's a top 5-10 talent. I think he has to be in the top 25.

Abramov is really skillful and his production was excellent, the only concerns are that there have been so many smaller wingers with high level skill who weren't able to become top 6 NHL forwards. Its a guessing game with players like this. Sukhachyov is a player I have unusually high, but I think he's one of the better goalies in this draft. I remember him being mentioned a few months ago, and since then, I've gone back to watch some tape, and I'm a fan. He makes crazy reflex saves and has really good athleticism. He consistently puts up good performances as well, so its not just good tools. I don't think he's that small and he doesn’t play that small, he might be about the height of some of the smaller goalies in the NHL, but his height is not a problem, like some might think. If it is, this just shows that you have to be 6'3 or 6'4 to be a goalie in the NHL because Sukhachyov has incredible talent and he's been very productive for years. I have him as my #3 goalie. Shvyryov is an intriguing prospect. Good skater, puck skills, playmaking. The production is really good in the MHL. He lead the league in points for U-18 players, and he even got his KHL debut with one of the best KHL teams at the age of 17.

I only made a top 60, but since then, I've went back and studied this Russian crop even further. These are some of the other Russian players that I think could be drafted prospects. I'm only counting first year draft eligibles, the other guys everyone already knows about.

Ivan Kosorenkov-Really high upside winger. Size is good at 6'0, but he needs to get stronger. Big shot and a good skater. He's a sniper, but he has good puck skills and playmaking. His decision making needs to get better and he needs to play better defense. Third Round

Mikhail Berdin-Goalie with decent, but not great size. He has good reflexes, aggressiveness and usually positions himself well. A good goalie who profiles well, but is not exceptional at anything. Third Round.

Artur Kayumov-Small winger with good skating, skills, passing, hockey IQ, shot, but defensive side of the game isn't there. Third Round

Yevgeni Mityakin-Big power winger who has good finesse to his game. He has a good shot, good playmaking, good hockey IQ and puck protection. He needs to become a better skater and could improve his defense. He got 16 KHL games this season. Fourth Round.

Mikhail Maltsev-Can play center or winger. Big and strong player with good skating, a good shot and some hands. He plays a 200 foot game, and is a hard working player. Limited offensive upside in the way of passing, puck skills, hockey IQ. Likely only a middle 6 forward. Fourth Round.

Nikita Makeyev-Loud offensive tools from a right handed shooting defenseman. Defensively, he’s not that good yet, but not a total disaster. I think he’ll figure out the defensive game offensively. The one problem? He’s listed at 5’9, and that might be generous. It’s a gamble. You could get a Torey Krug type, but defenseman of this height have trouble making it in the NHL. Fifth Round.

Vladimir Kuznetsov-He's a big winger with size and power, skating is decent for a player his size. He has a good shot as well. Playmaking and puck skills aren't his forte. Not very good defensively. Fifth Round.

Alexander Yakovenko-He doesn’t profile all too different from Makeyev. Makeyev is further along defensively, and I think he has better offensive potential. If you want to go off of listed heights, Yakovenko is an inch taller at 5’10. Fifth Round.

Dmitri Alexeyev-Pretty generic defenseman who's decent in a lot of areas, but not exceptional or terrible in any area. Size, skating, puck skills, shot, defensive play are all good. I've not seen any exceptional areas or big problem areas. Sixth Round.

The three players that I don’t know much about that I am curious if anyone knows anything about are Andrei Altybarmakyan, Yegor Zaitsev and Ilya Konovalov. Their stats lead me to believe that they could be good prospects, although I can’t give my own opinion on them.

Thanks for this post, that kind of input is certainly what I was hoping to see when I started the thread.

To me it looks like our opinions more or less 'intersect' with each other (maybe except the draft round prediction), although I can see that you haven't rated the overagers, while I have high hopes for them this year.

I'm interested about Kuznetsov and his skating, I have read some concerns about it in one of the rankings and you're describing it as 'decent for his size' (which also doesn't exactly sound as 'good' to me), although I have always viewed it as his strength, especially after he almost won the KHL pre-draft skating contest last year - he was a bit clumsy on the turns, but the first step was really powerful, also I didn't notice anything bad at the skating department in his recent performances. But as I see that his draft stock is trending down I had to ask myself if I'm missing something important here?

About Altybarmakyan, I think I have posted something about him on the previous page. I have seen some of Zaitsev's VHL games and he actually didn't have a very big role there, in those games he looked like a 'play it safe' guy with a decent mobility and passing, a bit lanky though (which is actually no big deal for his age). I'm not able to comment on Konovalov, as he actually wasn't on my radar this year, his stats are good, but we have to remember he got those while playing for Loko and their D is probably the strongest in the MHL.

 

[Fantomas]

Yeah, Tarasenko has those issues coming back basically every summer.

Tarasenko was never this overweight.

 

[Fantomas]

Abramov is really skillful and his production was excellent, the only concerns are that there have been so many smaller wingers with high level skill who weren't able to become top 6 NHL forwards.

Has there been an actual study on this? Because people say and assume this all the time but is it actually true that high skilled players of a certain height are more likely to bust or disappoint?

I have seen many shorter players with mediocre-to-poor skating skills dominate major junior and do little afterwards. But what about sub-six-foot players with elite skating?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yeah, Tarasenko has those issues coming back basically every summer.




Thanks for this post, that kind of input is certainly what I was hoping to see when I started the thread.

To me it looks like our opinions more or less 'intersect' with each other (maybe except the draft round prediction), although I can see that you haven't rated the overagers, while I have high hopes for them this year.

I'm interested about Kuznetsov and his skating, I have read some concerns about it in one of the rankings and you're describing it as 'decent for his size' (which also doesn't exactly sound as 'good' to me), although I have always viewed it as his strength, especially after he almost won the KHL pre-draft skating contest last year - he was a bit clumsy on the turns, but the first step was really powerful, also I didn't notice anything bad at the skating department in his recent performances. But as I see that his draft stock is trending down I had to ask myself if I'm missing something important here?

About Altybarmakyan, I think I have posted something about him on the previous page. I have seen some of Zaitsev's VHL games and he actually didn't have a very big role there, in those games he looked like a 'play it safe' guy with a decent mobility and passing, a bit lanky though (which is actually no big deal for his age). I'm not able to comment on Konovalov, as he actually wasn't on my radar this year, his stats are good, but we have to remember he got those while playing for Loko and their D is probably the strongest in the MHL.

When I say good for his size, I'm saying that knowing he's probably 6'2 or 6'3 and close to 220 pounds. Having average skating when you are that big of a player, profiles as above average skating because of his size. Kuznetsov's not going to skate the same exact way that someone like Abramov does. He's a lot more powerful and he's surprisingly agile over short distances. His skating isn't flashy where he can skate circles around the offensive zone like a lot of smaller forwards can, but he has the capability to beat a defender to the net who's not playing far enough off of him and go around them with good agility and power.

What's strange is players his size are usually better skaters over long distances than short distances because of their long strides, but Kuznetsov is the exact opposite from what I've observed. That might be because of a problem with his stride, although I'd need to watch him play more to know for sure. I've noticed he's more agile than fast, so I am assuming its a problem with his skating stride.

The reason why I don't have him that high is because I think he'll be a complimentary player in the NHL, at best. He's not the type of player that I think takes over games. He's effective, he'll contribute, but if he isn't going to dominate in the CHL playing with and against players who probably won't be playing in the NHL, I have a hard time thinking he profiles as any more than a complimentary middle 6 power forward in the NHL. I also don't think he really has the skill to be the kind of player that drives a line in the NHL. He has a good shot and good skating, but I think his puck skills, playmaking and hockey IQ are pretty limited. I actually think he has some similarities in profile to Maltsev, I think both are likely no better than middle 6 forwards, whereas players like Kayumov, Kosorenkov and Mityakin have a lot more skill. I have Maltsev about a round earlier than Kuznetsov because of his ability to play center and because I think he's better defensively.

Thank you for the update on Altybarmakyan, Zaitsev and Konovalov. I was interested in those players mostly because of the stats. In the case of Zaitsev, I found it curious that he played more VHL games than MHL games. In the cases of Altybarmakyan and Konovalov, it was their MHL stats. Regarding your point about over-agers, I'm not too big of a fan of the Russian over-agers this year. There are a few that I think have good upside like Golyshev, Rykov, Glotov, maybe Polunin and Lazarev, but some of these others that are talked about are not players that I think are that good. I've not been that impressed with Korshkov. Svetlakov doesn't seem to have much offensive upside. I just can't rank a player who likely doesn't have top 6 upside and is already 20 years old that high. Maybe a 7th round pick. I'm skeptical of Bobylyov because he's went from 9 points with Bobylyov to 67 with Victoria, and Victoria is one of those CHL teams where they seem to have a lot of players who aren't good pro prospects but they put up good stats because the team plays so well.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Has there been an actual study on this? Because people say and assume this all the time but is it actually true that high skilled players of a certain height are more likely to bust or disappoint?

I have seen many shorter players with mediocre-to-poor skating skills dominate major junior and do little afterwards. But what about sub-six-foot players with elite skating?

Thats a good question, and I don't know the answer to it.

I would think that being small and a good skater isn't enough. Players like St. Louis, Gaudreau, Zuccarello, Panarin faced plenty of challenges and questions regarding them before they were able to prove themselves in the NHL. These were all smaller players with a lot of skill, good skating, passing, shooting, they could pretty much do everything.

I don't have an answer to your question, but why would NHL teams ignore players with this much talent if it wasn't that they are more likely to be busts because of their height? Thats what I assume, but I could be wrong.

 

[Fantomas]

I don't have an answer to your question, but why would NHL teams ignore players with this much talent if it wasn't that they are more likely to be busts because of their height? Thats what I assume, but I could be wrong.

Don't know, but NHL teams are wrong all the time.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

I think no one has figured out what elements allow smaller players to overcome their size.

 

[Kshahdoo]

I think no one has figured out what elements allow smaller players to overcome their size.

I think the main element is the spirit. Of course if everything other is on the place. You gotta have the right mentality to break through all the obstacles small players have on the way to NHL rosters.

 

[Caser]

About Kuznetsov's skating, watched some highlight videos again and it really might be that there is something wrong with the stride technique, but I still think that the leg power definitely is there.

Tarasenko was never this overweight.

I think in case of Tarasenko we can talk about 10 lbs yearly vacation overweight, Sokolov had 15 or 20 lbs. Actually it's not so much about the numbers, I just mean that nowadays most of those weight issues can be handled by the proper training and nutrition approach. For exmample, even Byfuglien is making 7.5M while being pretty much legendary in terms of the weight issues. So to me the big question is if Sokolov has the attitude to handle that, not the issues themselves.

 

[Caser]

Ok, so Sergachyov goes to Montreal, Rubtsov goes to Philadelphia and Abramov goes to the second day.

 

[Fantomas]

A bunch of talentless pluggers went late in the first round. A smart team will take Abramov in the second and profit.

 

[Fantomas]

I think in case of Tarasenko we can talk about 10 lbs yearly vacation overweight, Sokolov had 15 or 20 lbs. Actually it's not so much about the numbers, I just mean that nowadays most of those weight issues can be handled by the proper training and nutrition approach. For exmample, even Byfuglien is making 7.5M while being pretty much legendary in terms of the weight issues. So to me the big question is if Sokolov has the attitude to handle that, not the issues themselves.

That's very kind of you.

 

[Caser]

Ron Hextall has selected 5 Russians so far in his drafts and therefore he is now tied with Yzerman on that. I remember medias were heavily exploiting the story how Yzerman is not afraid of drafting Russian players because of his experience with the Russian Five, I wander what will be the story with Hextall. And yes, Flyers got a 36-th pick and Abramov could be somewhere there, so it might be that the fun isn't over yet. Also liked that Hextall immediately stated that there is no pressure on Rubtsov to get out of his KHL contract, that's sounds like a healthy approach to me.

Sergachyov to Montreal sounds like a good fit and not because of the Malakhov comparison - Sergachyov is quite comfortable playing on both sides and is expected to contribute quite soon, which is important since there are quite a lot of trade rumours surrounding Montreal Ds.