2016 NHL Draft - Part 3 - June 24th

[BUX7PHX]

Probably doesn't mean a thing, but looking at mock drafts around the interwebs...

Of the 6 defensemen (Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachev, McAvoy, Bean, and Fabbro), here is the spot where the last of the 6 goes in the first round:

draftsite: McAvoy (19th)
mynhldraft: Fabbro (20th)
draftutopia: Fabbro (22nd)
rotoworld: Fabbro (16th)
toomanymenonthe site: Fabbro (25th)
Soupsonsports: McAvoy (17th)
hockeywriters: McAvoy (23rd)

These are all drafts updated in May only. While there are mocks that show one defenseman picked by the Coyotes at #20, and ones where a D is still on the board past the Coyote pick at #20, almost every one of them has 5 D off the board by pick #17 or so. This has me asking two questions overall:

Can we trust that a D will fall to us at #20?
Does it make more sense to try and trade up from #20, or trade back from #7 to get one of these D (assuming that we do not pick a D at #7)?

 

[Mosby]

OHL all-star teams announced today. In terms of draft eligible guys:

1st team: Sergachev, Tkachuk (also Dvorak)
2nd team: Chychrun
3rd team: Nylander, DeBrincat, Juolevi (also Strome)

 

[Heldig]

Great composite article on the top 30 prospects complete with video:
Dougherty's top 30

 

[indczn]

Great composite article on the top 30 prospects complete with video:
Dougherty's top 30

Thanks. Nice to have descriptions and highlights in one place. Another list with the prospects all over the place past 4th.

 

[kurtcobang]

I scanned through the thread so apologies if its been asked but as an Oiler fan would #4 be worth #7 and #20?
You guys get a home town boy who looks to be a special player and we get an extra first
Good or no way?
Cheers

 

[ck26]

I scanned through the thread so apologies if its been asked but as an Oiler fan would #4 be worth #7 and #20?
You guys get a home town boy who looks to be a special player and we get an extra first
Good or no way?
Cheers

4 + 32

Tkachuk projects as a winger and that's not a position of need. It's not for you either, and I suspect that's why you're interested in moving down. His Arizona roots are significantly weaker than Matthews's, and we're not willing to overpay for him either.

Bold EDM play: just draft Chychrun or Juolevi at 4.

 

[kurtcobang]

4 + 32

Tkachuk projects as a winger and that's not a position of need. It's not for you either, and I suspect that's why you're interested in moving down. His Arizona roots are significantly weaker than Matthews's, and we're not willing to overpay for him either.

Bold EDM play: just draft Chychrun or Juolevi at 4.

I would do that deal. Drafting a D at 4 seems like a reach to me and we are already stacked with LHD. My thinking is Tkachuk and Devorak already have amazing chemistry and would more than likely continue to thrive together

 

[rt]

I'd do either 7+32 for 4 or I would also do 7+20 for 4+31

 

[rt]

4 + 32

Tkachuk projects as a winger and that's not a position of need. It's not for you either, and I suspect that's why you're interested in moving down. His Arizona roots are significantly weaker than Matthews's, and we're not willing to overpay for him either.

Bold EDM play: just draft Chychrun or Juolevi at 4.

I don't really care much about the last name. I just think he's a very safe bet to be actual impact NHLer who will be a big PP performer. Not a coin toss or a scratch off lotto ticket. I think his game will translate well and I'm a believer that he'll make a mark on the league. All-Star level player? Probably not. That's fine with me though. I just like picks that pan out.

 

[WrinkledPossum]

I more open to trading for Tkachuk than I was before. I'd be fine with either one of these.

I'd do either 7+32 for 4 or I would also do 7+20 for 4+31

I feel like there is almost no chance of him not being a very good NHLer which I can't say for whoever is taken at 7. It would also solidify our top 6 for years to come with Domi, Strome, Duclair, Dvorak, Tkachuk, Rieder.

If we did that I'd be support trades that would go along with a quick rebuild. Trading some of the other fwd prospects, and draft picks for younger dmen.

 

[lanky]

Probably doesn't mean a thing, but looking at mock drafts around the interwebs...

Of the 6 defensemen (Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachev, McAvoy, Bean, and Fabbro), here is the spot where the last of the 6 goes in the first round:

draftsite: McAvoy (19th)
mynhldraft: Fabbro (20th)
draftutopia: Fabbro (22nd)
rotoworld: Fabbro (16th)
toomanymenonthe site: Fabbro (25th)
Soupsonsports: McAvoy (17th)
hockeywriters: McAvoy (23rd)

These are all drafts updated in May only. While there are mocks that show one defenseman picked by the Coyotes at #20, and ones where a D is still on the board past the Coyote pick at #20, almost every one of them has 5 D off the board by pick #17 or so. This has me asking two questions overall:

Can we trust that a D will fall to us at #20?
Does it make more sense to try and trade up from #20, or trade back from #7 to get one of these D (assuming that we do not pick a D at #7)?

Useful exercise. Thanks. Draft day usually sees some reaches and resulting fallers, so I'd bet that we'll have a chance to draft one of those six with the 20th.

 

[Heldig]

With such a crazy range of rankings draft day could see a record # of trades. I was watching an interview with the Jets GM and he said one team may have a prospect at 10 and another team have him at 26 on his list.

I predict at least 4 trades in the first round.

 

[DesertDawg]

...and a team with a lot of depth, may be willing to trade a player that would otherwise be left exposed in the upcoming expansion draft, to move up in the 1st round

 

[rt]

First preference is trade out.

Second is trade up.

Third is trade down

Fourth is pick at 7th.

 

[Mosby]

If you connect the dots, Bob McKenzie seems to think the Oilers will trade 4 OV to Colorado for Tyson Barrie.

 

[BUX7PHX]

...and a team with a lot of depth, may be willing to trade a player that would otherwise be left exposed in the upcoming expansion draft, to move up in the 1st round

Exactly my thought for trying to get Scandella out of Minnesota.

#7, #53, and prospect named Samuelsson, Perlini, Merkley, or Letunov

for

Scandella and #15.


Hell, would #7 and #20 for Scandella and #15 be reasonable? Take McAvoy, Bean, or Fabbro at #15. No prospects change hands. I still think Scandella is slightly over-valued there but MIN has very few additional picks this year to balance out. Different story for 2017 future picks from MIN. This type of deal solves a lot of things:

Domi-Hanzal-Reider
XXX-Vermette-Duclair
Martinook-Richardson-Doan
XXX-Strome-XXX

OEL-Murphy
Scandella-Stone
KConn/Dahlbeck-Michalek

XXX will be filled by FA signings on short term deals (Tanguay? Versteeg? Brodziak?)
OR rookies (Perlini, Dvorak, Samuelsson??)

We could still protect 8 skaters total (top 4 D and 4 forwards) for the 2017 expansion draft. For 2018, a player like Domi would take the place of Stone on that list, if we did not have someone picked in 2017 expansion draft.

Or ship Stone before the 2018 expansion draft. Hear me out on that process. In 2018, Michalek will be gone anyhow. While it may hurt to give up Stone, our pipeline on the right side would be Mayo, Wood, Holland, Clifton, and likely one of Fabbro or McAvoy. At least one of those players is likely to have progressed to bottom-pairing status in the NHL (likely Mayo or Wood). Could get a reasonable fill-in for a year or two, or we go for big name RHD post-expansion draft.

 

[Heldig]

So on the Jets board there is talk about how to move up from 22 to grab a LHD defenseman (probably Joulevi). Myers is the trade bait.

What trade can you see working for both sides?

 

[rt]

You tell us, Duck. You're a fan of both teams. 7+53 for Myers+22 ?

 

[Grimes]

So on the Jets board there is talk about how to move up from 22 to grab a LHD defenseman (probably Joulevi). Myers is the trade bait.

What trade can you see working for both sides?

OEL-Myers
XXX-Murphy
Kconn-Stone
Dahlbeck-Z

This looks really good. I think Murphy could be a really good partner for a PMD too, Vatanan or Yandle. Myers wouldn't cost as much as Barrie and could be a better fit. Is Myers still a top pairing guy? How has he looked this year Ducky?

 

[Matias Maccete]

Myers for 7 straight up? Maybe an overpayment for myers but he's a solid righty who could move stone and maybe even murphy down in the line up, and he's on a solid contract. He'd be cheap enough that we could pursue goligoski and then have a d core of:
OEL murphy
Goligoski myers
kconn stone
Z

I'd like that a lot depending on how much $$ goligoski would want.

 

[rt]

Myers is a mess of injuries and surgeries right now. 7th straight up is steep. He's a out as mangled as Stone. Maybe worse.

 

[Matias Maccete]

Myers is a mess of injuries and surgeries right now. 7th straight up is steep. He's a out as mangled as Stone. Maybe worse.

Ah that would change things. Wow it's knee surgery then a second hip surgery. In March they were saying 16 to 20 week recovery. Yeah I want no part of him for our 7th pick, good lord.

 

[Mosby]

I'm very interested in Myers if we're confident that he'll be healthy and ready to go. His contract is fantastic: 4, 3.5 and 3 over the next three years.

 

[Heldig]

Regarding Myers, he is still expected to be back for training camp. I guess there is always concern about recovery until he does (or doesnt). He is a good #3 IMO. He plays mostly with Enstrom. Would allow Murphy to be the guy on a second pairing.

The Jets have too many forwards right now. There may be a player they can include with Myers to get #7 and something. Burmistrov is a possibility. Others could be Lowry (possible Hanzal replacement) or Dano. More likely to add a forward than trade the 22nd pick.

So Myers + Burmistrov for #7 and

** Bob McKenzie just tweeted on yet another Trouba rumour because of his alleged salary demands. It just wont go away. Trouba would be perfect beside OEL. Trouble is Jets need to get a LHD back. Coyotes dont have one that would help them.

 

[Jakey53]

Exactly my thought for trying to get Scandella out of Minnesota.

#7, #53, and prospect named Samuelsson, Perlini, Merkley, or Letunov

for

Scandella and #15.


Hell, would #7 and #20 for Scandella and #15 be reasonable? Take McAvoy, Bean, or Fabbro at #15. No prospects change hands. I still think Scandella is slightly over-valued there but MIN has very few additional picks this year to balance out. Different story for 2017 future picks from MIN. This type of deal solves a lot of things:

Domi-Hanzal-Reider
XXX-Vermette-Duclair
Martinook-Richardson-Doan
XXX-Strome-XXX

OEL-Murphy
Scandella-Stone
KConn/Dahlbeck-Michalek

XXX will be filled by FA signings on short term deals (Tanguay? Versteeg? Brodziak?)
OR rookies (Perlini, Dvorak, Samuelsson??)

We could still protect 8 skaters total (top 4 D and 4 forwards) for the 2017 expansion draft. For 2018, a player like Domi would take the place of Stone on that list, if we did not have someone picked in 2017 expansion draft.

Or ship Stone before the 2018 expansion draft. Hear me out on that process. In 2018, Michalek will be gone anyhow. While it may hurt to give up Stone, our pipeline on the right side would be Mayo, Wood, Holland, Clifton, and likely one of Fabbro or McAvoy. At least one of those players is likely to have progressed to bottom-pairing status in the NHL (likely Mayo or Wood). Could get a reasonable fill-in for a year or two, or we go for big name RHD post-expansion draft.

I don't want to trade both 7 and 20. I still want to keep the 7th, but I see the reasoning behind the idea to make a deal for immediate help. I still think we are one year early to make any big trades.