2016 NHL Draft - Part 3 - June 24th

[lanky]

Not a single agency has Nylander outside the top eight. Most common ranking is six.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2016-draft/nhl-draft-rankings/

 

[rt]

I don't think I'd even take Nylander at 20. He's a high end playmaker with terrific agility, but as others have noted, his effort level comes and goes, especially outside of the offensive zone. As a one-dimensional scoring wing, you need to be an absolutely dominant offensive player to make up for his other shortcomings, and Nylander has been less than that. I'd expect him to be a productive middle six wing good for 50 or occasionally 60 points a year (not unlike Boedker, but probably more of a shooter), but without bringing anything else to the table, that's not worth a top ten pick.

I don't know. His only problem is flipping a switch and deciding he wants to engage more and be an impact player. He works as hard as he needs to in games to make an impact as an amateur. He could continue to ramp things up and improve.

I don't know why we should expect certain prospects to become better skaters and take them top ten even though they're slow, or expect prospects to get much bigger and much stronger and take them in the top ten even thought they're tiny weaklings, but it's totally out of the question to take a kid in the top ten who gets by a little too easily on skill and needs to have a fire lit under him. How different is that?

 

[rt]

Not a single agency has Nylander outside the top eight. Most common ranking is six.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2016-draft/nhl-draft-rankings/

Great! Hopefully Calgary takes that to heart and makes sure he's off the board for us.

 

[Eco]

Think and hope it's Chychrun. Huge frame, people who watch non-NHL says he's one of the best defenders out there. I know our need in for the true Center, but he'll, let's go grab a UFA and sure up our defense.

 

[Mosby]

And word on when McKenzie releases his final rankings? And Button?

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

Not a former NHL player but he had a pretty promising junior career before injury derailed him. The point being that he's not that far removed from being in the same shoes as the prospects he's talking to.

I didn't realize he played junior. To be fair though, it looked like he was playing in the BCHL at 20, not exactly in the same shoes as these prospects.

 

[PhoPhan]

6 Brown
7 Jost
8 Keller

U18s was a coming out party for Brown. Everyone took notice on the player who could literally dominate any style of game once he grows into his body. It was eye opening for anyone who saw him play early in the OHL season versus what was happening in April.

Brown was actually touted fairly highly coming into this season. He fell into the teens/twenties after a sluggish start to the season, but as he showed more consistency through the second half and especially with his showing at the U18s, he's basically climbed back to where he was 12 months ago.

Keller looked great in the NTDP last season and came into this year with some hype. I've seen him ranked pretty consistently in the teens all year, and I've personally had him in my top 8 for months. As for Jost, he was in the teens all year from his electric play in the BCHL. The main knock against him was quality of competition, so when he looked dominant at the U18s and took some gunpowder out of that criticism, he jumped up a few spots.

Overall, while this draft does seem a little bit more all over the place in terms of rankings from one outlet to another, I haven't noticed any more movement within those rankings than usual.

I don't know. His only problem is flipping a switch and deciding he wants to engage more and be an impact player. He works as hard as he needs to in games to make an impact as an amateur. He could continue to ramp things up and improve.

I don't know why we should expect certain prospects to become better skaters and take them top ten even though they're slow, or expect prospects to get much bigger and much stronger and take them in the top ten even thought they're tiny weaklings, but it's totally out of the question to take a kid in the top ten who gets by a little too easily on skill and needs to have a fire lit under him. How different is that?

The difference is precedence. Just about every player improves his skating and strength in the first few years after being drafted. Not always enough to overcome a deficiency, but that happens pretty regularly, too. There are an awful lot of NHL players who were drafted with weak skating or poor strength (or a number of other issues) and improved them enough to make an impact.

I don't know of many cases of low-motor players overcoming that. That's not to say there aren't players who have a low motor and still make an impact, but those players tend to have standout skills to make up for it. Nylander is a very skilled player, but the question is to what extent does that skill make up for his inconsistent energy level, because that energy level is unlikely to really change much. The guys who are high-motor players are pros tend to be the guys who were high-motor players as juniors. That's also why I put a larger value on that trait (hockey sense, too, which also doesn't seem to develop much) when evaluating prospects.

From what I've seen from Nylander, those skills are very good but not quite elite. The Boedker comparison isn't a bad one. Ales Hemsky and Marcus Johansson are a couple others that come to mind for me. Maybe Martin Havlat. All good middle six scorers, but not what I want from a 7th overall selection.

 

[TheLegend]

What? Chayka isn't a former player

Chayka played a couple of years in junior and had a career ending back injury.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=119580

 

[The Feckless Puck]

http://coyotes.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=885322

Coyotes seeking "cultural enhancers"...

 

[Dirty Old Man]

Chayka played a couple of years in junior and had a career ending back injury.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=119580

There's a Strange but True narrative for you: so as Wayne Gretzky was coaching what were to be his final games in Phoenix, with a bankruptcy looming, our next GM was the best player on his Junior A team in Woodstock, New Brunswick, population 5000.

 

[Ebb]

​

Not a former NHL player but he had a pretty promising junior career before injury derailed him. The point being that he's not that far removed from being in the same shoes as the prospects he's talking to.

John Chayka
4 seasons

2007-08 | Woodstock Slammers | MJAHL | 50 games | 14 goals | 39 assists
2008-09 | Woodstock Slammers | MJAHL | 51 games | 24 goals | 56 assists
2009-10 | Oakville Blades | OJHL | 4 games | 0 goals | 1 assist
2009-10 | Cowichan Valley Capitals | BCHL | 4 games | 1 goal | 2 assists​

 

[Dirty Old Man]

​

John Chayka
4 seasons

2007-08 | Woodstock Slammers | MJAHL | 50g | 14a | 39a
2008-09 | Woodstock Slammers | MJAHL | 51g | 24a | 56a
2009-10 | Oakville Blades | OJHL | 4g | 0a
2009-10 | Cowichan Valley Capitals | BCHL | 4g | 1A​

So, when do y'all think the back injury occurred?

 

[PhoPhan]

So, when do y'all think the back injury occurred?

I'm more curious about when this was a promising junior career.

 

[zerekstar]

It is really difficult to know who to root for in this draft. If we trade up, the highest we could go would be for 30a which would have to be Puljujarvi. If we trade for Edmonton's pick, we are pretty much certain to take Tkachuck but to be honest, I would almost rather take PLD. I think he would have more value in the long run. If we pick a defenseman , I lean toward Sergachov but I think they all are a wildcard. If we pick BPA at 7, I hope it's Brown. It is anyone's guess what we will do.

 

[Mosby]

Final rankings from HockeyProspect.com

1 Matthews
2 Laine
3 Puljujarvi
4 Dubois
5 Tkachuk
6 Juolevi
7 Brown

Full ranking here: http://www.hockeyprospect.com/2016-nhl-draft-rankings-hockeyprospect-com-final-top-30/

 

[Mosby]

And word on when McKenzie releases his final rankings? And Button?

Update on this: Talk on the Prospects board is that Button's list will be released tomorrow. Very interested to see it.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Final rankings from HockeyProspect.com

1 Matthews
2 Laine
3 Puljujarvi
4 Dubois
5 Tkachuk
6 Juolevi
7 Brown

Full ranking here: http://www.hockeyprospect.com/2016-nhl-draft-rankings-hockeyprospect-com-final-top-30/

6 D in the top 15. Yes, teams are going to have favorites, and some teams will draft for need. But I do not trust getting a D at #20 unless we go off the board. And by the looks of the top 30, yes, we will have to

 

[rt]

Down from 7 and up from 20? Take two D in the early teens?

 

[Mosby]

Down from 7 and up from 20? Take two D in the early teens?

I'd be happy to walk out of the draft selecting Chychrun and McAvoy in the teens.

 

[Matias Maccete]

Gauthier has been plummeting, wonder if he's there at 20?

 

[Mosby]

Kind of surprised by that. Heard he was very impressive at the combine, for the physical testing component at least.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Depends on how we control the assets. I actually like #20 a lot b/c I personally think that between #7 and #20, you are getting an excellent player regardless of who is picked. I am not overly optimistic, but if one of the top 6 D happens to fall to #20, then take regardless.

I like Kunin, Gauthier, a few others in that mix. It's identifying the prospects to avoid. Hopefully, some team makes a mistake before #20, or a series of draft errors happens. Of course, this has to happen to picks later than ours after we trade down.

But yeah, I would actually say that I like pick #20 in the draft better than pick #7. There are still some defensemen in the 2nd-3rd round that have some upside. And there are still some players that we have a lot of in the system at #20 that some other team may take (Jones, Katchouk - just not crazy about either as LWs). I wouldn't be upset at this scenario (using only the top 30 as a reference for picks in the first round):

Trade down to between #10 and #15.

#15: Bean/Fabbro/McAvoy/Chychrun - whichever is available
#20: Gauthier/Kunin
#37: BPA
#53: Hajek/Hronek/Peeke/Cederholm/Green/Day/Dineen?

Pretty sure that half of those guys will be available at #53. Maybe Dineen and some other D in that mix is BPA at #37.

Bean
Kunin
Dineen
Peeke

Wouldn't be upset with that draft at all...

 

[Mosby]

"Identifying the prospects to avoid." I like that. Great way to describe this draft.

Logan Stanley is one name I'd like to avoid. Yeah he's big (huge, in fact) and on a good Windsor team, but I just don't see it. So many other defenseman I like more than him.

 

[Grimes]

I'd be happy to walk out of the draft selecting Chychrun and McAvoy in the teens.

This is the only way I'd be ok with Chychrun. Selecting some back up for him and potentially drafting him as a steal.

 

[boredmale]

Not a single agency has Nylander outside the top eight. Most common ranking is six.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2016-draft/nhl-draft-rankings/

You were saying?

Final rankings from HockeyProspect.com

1 Matthews
2 Laine
3 Puljujarvi
4 Dubois
5 Tkachuk
6 Juolevi
7 Brown

Full ranking here: http://www.hockeyprospect.com/2016-nhl-draft-rankings-hockeyprospect-com-final-top-30/