Prospect Info: 2016 Draft | Trading Down From #4 Less Likely Now According to Stauffer

[BoldNewLettuce]

I really don't get the fascination with handedness.

Plenty of good teams have had a top pairing with two lefties.

Klefbom/Nurse/Davidson are still some pretty big question marks too. Why shouldn't they even consider taking a player who was much better than all of them at the same age?

or sign a lefty FA.

ie.

Campbell-Klefbom is better than Klef-Demers imo.

 

[Stud Muffin]

or sign a lefty FA.

ie.

Campbell-Klefbom is better than Klef-Demers imo.

Campell is going to fall off a cliff very soon.

 

[MinimaMoralia]

Campell is going to fall off a cliff very soon.

That's going a bit far. He has not only kept exceptionally healthy and consistent over the years, but last season he proved that his all-around game is as good as ever. I see no reason at all why he is going to decline sharply. Guys like Campbell and Dan Boyle can stay relevant into their early fourties if they wanted to, I'd wager to say.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Campell is going to fall off a cliff very soon.

Well whatever Goligoski then

 

[Stud Muffin]

That's going a bit far. He has not only kept exceptionally healthy and consistent over the years, but last season he proved that his all-around game is as good as ever. I see no reason at all why he is going to decline sharply. Guys like Campbell and Dan Boyle can stay relevant into their early fourties if they wanted to, I'd wager to say.

37 though. Not even worth taking a chance when you can get a younger guy

 

[doubledown99]

If you don't think handedness matters than you need to read up on it:

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/04/quantifying-the-importance-of-handedness/

The gist is - it matters a lot.

 

[The Nuge]

If you don't think handedness matters than you need to read up on it:

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/04/quantifying-the-importance-of-handedness/

The gist is - it matters a lot.

Handedness can make a difference. Just not as big of difference as the quality of the dman

 

[McDNicks17]

If you don't think handedness matters than you need to read up on it:

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/04/quantifying-the-importance-of-handedness/

The gist is - it matters a lot.

That whole premise is flawed.

It assumes that the defensemen on both types of pairings are equal players and that it's the handedness that makes the difference. Is Keith/Seabrook better than Nikitin/Pardy because it's a left/right pairing or because they're just vastly better players?

It's a pretty blatant case of confusing correlation with causation.

 

[belair]

Handedness can make a difference. Just not as big of difference as the quality of the dman

When Ryan Suter complains about it, it matters a bit.

Unless that offensive black hole Brodin really is that bad, of course.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Simple solution to the "handedness" problem... simply take McAvoy at #4... he's an excellent prospect AND he's a RHD... perfect combo.

Would I take him at #4... yes I would and why not... if people are debating Sergachyov/Chychrun/Juolevi at #4... I see no reason at all to believe that McAvoy won't be every bit as good as them or better.

Take McAvoy... the most promising looking RHD at #4 unless a trade comes along that obviously makes that #4 worth trading away (not likely to happen imo).

 

[alphahelix]

Simple solution to the "handedness" problem... simply take McAvoy at #4... he's an excellent prospect AND he's a RHD... perfect combo.

Would I take him at #4... yes I would and why not... if people are debating Sergachyov/Chychrun/Juolevi at #4... I see no reason at all to believe that McAvoy won't be every bit as good as them or better.

Take McAvoy... the most promising looking RHD at #4 unless a trade comes along that obviously makes that #4 worth trading away (not likely to happen imo).

Already reported that other teams are looking to trade up. If you're taking McAvoy, you're insane not to trade down. At least to 6 or 7th , both teams rumored to be moving up. But really, you could probably move even further back. Some rankings have him outside the top 20.

Some scouts will look at Tkachuk with his 1st overall pick level production, 6'1 frame and tenacity around the net, and wonder "wtf are people smoking not drafting this kid?". You take McAvoy where gamebreakers are available and even if he is a quality defender people will remember you for that pick. McAvoy is going to be good but he is definitely not going to be an Ekblad or a Hedman, and maybe not even a Chychrun either.

 

[Hemsky4PM]

Already reported that other teams are looking to trade up. If you're taking McAvoy, you're insane not to trade down. At least to 6 or 7th , both teams rumored to be moving up. But really, you could probably move even further back. Some rankings have him outside the top 20.

Some scouts will look at Tkachuk with his 1st overall pick level production, 6'1 frame and tenacity around the net, and wonder "wtf are people smoking not drafting this kid?". You take McAvoy where gamebreakers are available and even if he is a quality defender people will remember you for that pick. McAvoy is going to be good but he is definitely not going to be an Ekblad or a Hedman, and maybe not even a Chychrun either.

Scouts feel the same way about Dubois. Accept that he's bigger, faster and a better two-way player than Tkachuk. I'm still very much on the Dubois train. If he ends up being capable of playing C in the NHL...that seriously tips the scales for him being a more valuable player than Tkachuk. It really seems like everything positive Tkachuk does on the ice happens around the opposition net. Dubois plays 200 ft.

As for trading down for a D...I'm probably a bit more inclined to move Eberle or RNH for a 20 something D with experience and a mid-first rounder. Then take a D with that mid-first. McAvoy could still be there.

I'd personally draft Dubois at 4.

Then try to move RNH to Minnesota for their first rounder at no.15 and Matt Dumba (RHD); or Detroit for no.16 and Brendan Smith (LHD) or Danny DeKeyser (LHD); or Carolina for no.13 and Jaccob Slavin (LHD) or Brett Pesce (RHD).

First target would be Dumba. Minny could really use RNH and Dumba is a RHD with a more proven offensive track record. I'd also still pursue Demers on the FA market.

Klefbom - Demers
Sekera - Dumba
Davidson - Fayne
Gryba/Pardy/no.7

Nurse, Reinhart, Oesterle, D. Simpson, Musil and Jones on the farm.

 

[SK13]

In recent years, Toronto, Philadelphia and Detroit have all, at one time, identified an issue with glut of defenseman who all shoot the same way. It does make a difference. I'm not sure why there's a discussion of whether or not it matters as much as the quality of the player - it obvious doesn't. That doesn't make it meaningless.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

In recent years, Toronto, Philadelphia and Detroit have all, at one time, identified an issue with glut of defenseman who all shoot the same way. It does make a difference. I'm not sure why there's a discussion of whether or not it matters as much as the quality of the player - it obvious doesn't. That doesn't make it meaningless.

but it seems obvious there are more lefties available (in FA, and thus likely in trade as well)

so why not one of each.....

why blow your brains out on demers over handedness?

 

[nabob]

That whole premise is flawed.

It assumes that the defensemen on both types of pairings are equal players and that it's the handedness that makes the difference. Is Keith/Seabrook better than Nikitin/Pardy because it's a left/right pairing or because they're just vastly better players?

It's a pretty blatant case of confusing correlation with causation.

 

[OilerFan4Life]

Teriffic piece by Willis on Oesterle.

2017 Oesterle = 2016 Davidson.

One can dream.

 

[VainGretzky]

Scouts feel the same way about Dubois. Accept that he's bigger, faster and a better two-way player than Tkachuk. I'm still very much on the Dubois train. If he ends up being capable of playing C in the NHL...that seriously tips the scales for him being a more valuable player than Tkachuk. It really seems like everything positive Tkachuk does on the ice happens around the opposition net. Dubois plays 200 ft.

As for trading down for a D...I'm probably a bit more inclined to move Eberle or RNH for a 20 something D with experience and a mid-first rounder. Then take a D with that mid-first. McAvoy could still be there.

I'd personally draft Dubois at 4.

Then try to move RNH to Minnesota for their first rounder at no.15 and Matt Dumba (RHD); or Detroit for no.16 and Brendan Smith (LHD) or Danny DeKeyser (LHD); or Carolina for no.13 and Jaccob Slavin (LHD) or Brett Pesce (RHD).

First target would be Dumba. Minny could really use RNH and Dumba is a RHD with a more proven offensive track record. I'd also still pursue Demers on the FA market.

Klefbom - Demers
Sekera - Dumba
Davidson - Fayne
Gryba/Pardy/no.7

Nurse, Reinhart, Oesterle, D. Simpson, Musil and Jones on the farm.

0 chance Reinhart clears waivers

 

[Aceboogie]

Teriffic piece by Willis on Oesterle.

2017 Oesterle = 2016 Davidson.

One can dream.

Honestly 2016 Osterle > (tempted to add another >) 2015 Davidson. Osterle has proven to be solid in NHL. From puck moving POV (zone exits) hes excelling. And from ability to handle NHL size, hes passing as well. Davidsons first stint in NHL didnt go nearly as well and people were ready to let him go.

Although this doesnt mean Osterle will progress like him, but hes starting from a higher point. If Osterle pulls a Davidson next year... oh my thatd be a huge thing

 

[Zaddy]

http://www.tsn.ca/matthews-goes-wire-to-wire-as-tsn-s-top-prospect-1.511597

Bobby Macs final rankings out. Juolevi ranked 6th and the top defenseman. Sergachev #9, Bean #12 and Chychrun #13, just barely ahead of McAvoy #14 and Fabbro #16.

Anyway, interesting to see Juolevi being so highly regarded considering how many in here thinks he is nothing special.

 

[North]

http://www.tsn.ca/matthews-goes-wire-to-wire-as-tsn-s-top-prospect-1.511597

Bobby Macs final rankings out. Juolevi ranked 6th and the top defenseman. Sergachev #9, Bean #12 and Chychrun #13, just barely ahead of McAvoy #14 and Fabbro #16.

Anyway, interesting to see Juolevi being so highly regarded considering how many in here thinks he is nothing special.

Some feel the Oilers should use pick 4 on Sergachev?

This says people who watch him don't view him even at Juolevi's level.

Personally, if they don't trade back, I'm getting more and more torn between Dubois and Tkachuk.

 

[SK13]

It bears reminding every year, but Bob McKenzie's draft list is the damned Bible of the draft. It is, year after year, the most complete and accurate look at what NHL scouts and feel.

 

[RipsADrive]

Some feel the Oilers should use pick 4 on Sergachev?

This says people who watch him don't view him even at Juolevi's level.

Personally, if they don't trade back, I'm getting more and more torn between Dubois and Tkachuk.

I honestly don't have heart set on either guy. It's easy to see why both would be excellent picks so I'm comfortable with which ever guy Chiarelli and the scouts think has the best upside.

(My foolish hope this year is that Pulujarvi will still be around at 4)

I'm most interested in seeing where Chychrun goes. I remember last year when he was a lock to go top 5.

 

[North]

I honestly don't have heart set on either guy. It's easy to see why both would be excellent picks so I'm comfortable with which ever guy Chiarelli and the scouts think has the best upside.

(My foolish hope this year is that Pulujarvi will still be around at 4)

I'm most interested in seeing where Chychrun goes. I remember last year when he was a lock to go top 5.

Yeah, I love Dubois' versatility but Tkachuk just seems like he'd be a real ******* to play against.

I'd be happy either way too.

It's surprising how Chychrun has been passed.

What are the knocks on him?

 

[BudBundy]

Yeah, I love Dubois' versatility but Tkachuk just seems like he'd be a real ******* to play against.

I'd be happy either way too.

It's surprising how Chychrun has been passed.

What are the knocks on him?

Mediocre skater. A buddy I work with watched him at Mem Cup in Red Deer and came away unimpressed despite the gaudy numbers. "Really heavy feet" was his impression and he knows his hockey.

 

[Tarus]

Mediocre skater. A buddy I work with watched him at Mem Cup in Red Deer and came away unimpressed despite the gaudy numbers. "Really heavy feet" was his impression and he knows his hockey.

Tkachuk had an ankle sprain from the OHL finals.