Prospect Info: 2016 Draft | Trading Down From #4 Less Likely Now According to Stauffer

[lakai17]

Edit wrong thread.

I am still hopeful on a big day in a week

 

[40oz]

Knights season ticket holder here, and I can see him coming back to junior along with Marner (Leafs), they are only losing Dvorak from the roster and all the rest of the players are returning, they will want to defend there title and the Mem cup is only 2 hours away against there hated rivals the Windsor Spitfires. We have the depth on LW, to take it slowly with this guy, especially if they are serious about targeting Lucic.

I really don't want to see another Sam Gagner episode, the last London Knight the Oilers drafted and rushed to the NHL under previous management.

You think Marner is going back to junior?

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

is Juulsen and a 2017 2nd enough to trade down to 9.

I'm starting to think if you want Serg you have to take him at 4 though.

Hows aboot Juulsen, 2017 2nd, McCarron, 9th for Yak and 4th. Take Chychrun at 9 (rush him into the NHL because we're ****ed anyway).

 

[McFlyingV]

Do you think Tkachuk is nhl ready? He pretty much has nothing left to prove at the CHL level but then again I wouldn't want to ruin his development if we are still crap next season and he's on the team

I think he could be ready. He's strong enough and has enough size that I think he can physically play in the NHL, he does the right things down low and isn't afraid of the front of the net, and he has tremendous vision and hockey sense. The only question would be his skating, but I don't think it would be an issue. I think if we do pick him he could make the team out of camp because of his style of play and it would allow him to start on the 3rd line/2nd PP because he does play the gritty style. Hard to predict though until you see him in camp (assuming we pick him).

 

[Raab]

Being a Knights season ticket holder, and seeing all (3) of the available top D in this draft, I would rank them as follows. Sergachev/Chychrun/Juolevi. Love the Knights, and Love Juolevi, I just don't see him being a #2 when its all said and done, he is a second pairing guy, a SOLID second pairing guy. The other two played on a worse roster then him, and I think they have way more upside if they are used and developed properly. NONE of these guys will be a #1, it is what it is, there is no Hedman, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Jones, or Ekblad in this draft. And that's what sucks for the Oilers, cause if they were, they would be selecting them @ #4 without question.

There may be no Franchise dmen, but I dont see why Sergachev couldn't turn into someone on the same level as Faulk, McDonagh, Suter, or Josi. As for Juolevi I agree to an extent. I think he could be a #2 dman that helps anchor a pairing. I think the Karl Alzner comparable is pretty good as they both move the puck well and are good skaters. If he's on your second pairing I feel like your defence is probably one of the best in the league.

 

[Panda Bear]

The Vatanen signing means most likely that Cam Fowler is the odd man out. They still need to sign Lindholm and Rackell.

Fowler is very legit as well.

Cam Fowler's a better player too, so I'm not unhappy about that.

Unfortunately, he's yet another LD.

 

[OILSLICK94]

You think Marner is going back to junior?

YES, Hunter still has ties with his brother at home here in London (part owner), he will probably get a cup of coffee with the big club to start the year, won't go over the 10 game limit, (he can't play in the AHL) so he will get sent back to London, and then lead (Captain?) Team Canada @ the World Juniors, which so happens to be in......... Toronto!!! It's all part of the plan, I think. Then after the tourney when Canada wins GOLD, he returns to London and leads the team into the playoffs, and defends the Mem. cup?

 

[40oz]

YES, Hunter still has ties with his brother at home here in London (part owner), he will probably get a cup of coffee with the big club to start the year, won't go over the 10 game limit, (he can't play in the AHL) so he will get sent back to London, and then lead (Captain?) Team Canada @ the World Juniors, which so happens to be in......... Toronto!!! It's all part of the plan, I think. Then after the tourney when Canada wins GOLD, he returns to London and leads the team into the playoffs, and defends the Mem. cup?

I hope you're right, I just don't see that happening. Marner is ready.

 

[suddeninterest]

I think Sergachev is going to explode next season. Windsor is hosting the Mem Cup so they're gonna have a good team around him, he was 17 for the whole season this year, he has really started to figure out the NA style and language, and he has an offseason of training in which he can focus on his skating and conditioning in relation to the length of the CHL season which he now understands the rigours of; and will be training with Provorov, who is trying to make the NHL. I'm expecting 70+ points in the ~57 games he will play next year in the OHL.

Another prospect that isn't talked about enough is Charlie McAvoy. Kid had more points than Hanifin did last year in his freshman NCAA season in hockey east, is a great skater and very smart.

 

[McDoused]

There may be no Franchise dmen, but I dont see why Sergachev couldn't turn into someone on the same level as Faulk, McDonagh, Suter, or Josi. As for Juolevi I agree to an extent. I think he could be a #2 dman that helps anchor a pairing. I think the Karl Alzner comparable is pretty good as they both move the puck well and are good skaters. If he's on your second pairing I feel like your defence is probably one of the best in the league.

Yep, I think we keep agreeing that drafting dmen is never a bad thing. You can never have too may top 4 dmen.

is Juulsen and a 2017 2nd enough to trade down to 9.

I'm starting to think if you want Serg you have to take him at 4 though.

Hows aboot Juulsen, 2017 2nd, McCarron, 9th for Yak and 4th. Take Chychrun at 9 (rush him into the NHL because we're ****ed anyway).

Why wouldn't Chia just take the 7th and the 20th? IMO the 20th > Juulsen. I would then package the 20th and the Yakupov to move up to 10th. Walk away with both Sergachev and Chychrun/Juolevi.

Maybe some kind of four way:

To Montreal: Dubois
To Arizona: Tkachuk
To Edmonton: Picks 7 and 9
To Vancouver: Bennings obsession for Junk.

Obviously add parts where needed.

 

[FunkyChicken]

is Juulsen and a 2017 2nd enough to trade down to 9.

Nope. Below are the 4th and 9th overall picks in the last ten drafts.

2015: Marner vs Meier
2014: Bennett vs Ehlers
2013: Jones vs Horvat
2014: Reinhart vs Trouba
2011: Larsson vs Hamilton
2010: Johansen vs Granlund
2009: Kane vs Cowan
2008: Pietrangelo vs Bailey
2007: Hickey vs Couture
2006: Backstrom vs Sheppard

So only 3 of the 10 draft years (2014, 11, 07) would the combination of Juulsen and the 9th overall be better value than the forth overall. Interesting, those years all involve the 4th overall selecting a defenseman with limited offense (Reinhart and Larsson) or a massive reach (Hickey). Stay clear of those type of defenseman and the decision become really easy.

 

[dem]

Juulsen had a pretty down year this season. Not the kind of draft+1 year anyone is looking for. No value there.

 

[McDoused]

Okay so expanding on my previous post, how about:

Arizona gives up the 7th and 20th
Montreal gives up the 9th and Beaulieu
Edmonton gives up the 4th and Yakupov
Vancouver gives up the 5th

Arizona gets the 4th (Tkachuk)
Montreal gets the 5th (Dubois)
Edmonton gets the 7th and 9th (Sergachev and Chychrun)
Vancouver gets Beaulieu, Yakupov and the 20th (accelerates rebuild)

That gives everyone what they want, doesn't it?

 

[Soundwave]

Okay so expanding on my previous post, how about:

Arizona gives up the 7th and 20th
Montreal gives up the 9th and Beaulieu
Edmonton gives up the 4th and Yakupov
Vancouver gives up the 5th

Arizona gets the 4th (Tkachuk)
Montreal gets the 5th (Dubois)
Edmonton gets the 7th and 9th (Sergachev and Chychrun)
Vancouver gets Beaulieu, Yakupov and the 20th (accelerates rebuild)

That gives everyone what they want, doesn't it?

Not really. We don't have 3 years to sit around and wait for Sergachev and Chychrun to become high end d-men, beyond that they're both LD.

No way Vancouver agrees to that either.

 

[Supermassive]

Okay so expanding on my previous post, how about:

Arizona gives up the 7th and 20th
Montreal gives up the 9th and Beaulieu
Edmonton gives up the 4th and Yakupov
Vancouver gives up the 5th

Arizona gets the 4th (Tkachuk)
Montreal gets the 5th (Dubois)
Edmonton gets the 7th and 9th (Sergachev and Chychrun)
Vancouver gets Beaulieu, Yakupov and the 20th (accelerates rebuild)

That gives everyone what they want, doesn't it?

I'd love this. That pairing could develop in the AHL in 2017-18 and then make the jump together as a bottom-pairing the next year.
Pick up one great RD to hold us over until then.

 

[McDNicks17]

I really don't get the fascination with handedness.

Plenty of good teams have had a top pairing with two lefties.

Klefbom/Nurse/Davidson are still some pretty big question marks too. Why shouldn't they even consider taking a player who was much better than all of them at the same age?

 

[McDoused]

Yep between Klefbom, Nurse, Davidson, Sergachev and Chychrun one of those guys should become a number one. That's a pretty damn good Dcore.

 

[RipsADrive]

I'd make that deal for sure.

Unfortunately Vancouver is getting the raw end of the deal by far though and would never agree IMO.

 

[suddeninterest]

I really don't get the fascination with handedness.

Plenty of good teams have had a top pairing with two lefties.

Klefbom/Nurse/Davidson are still some pretty big question marks too. Why shouldn't they even consider taking a player who was much better than all of them at the same age?

Fear of the player busting/not reaching their potential. People see a guy like Tkachuk or Dubois and say "okay, there is probably a 90% chance they become 2nd line W/C or better." Then they look at a guy like Sergachev and say "well there's maybe only a 40-50% chance he becomes a #1D." So they want the forward because if you pick the D and he doesn't turn out then it's like you wasted a pick when you could have had a better contributing player. Now the problem for the Oil is that they need a #1D exponentially more than they need another 2nd or even 1st line W/C. So you have to decide if it's worth the greater risk to draft a player who might not turn out, but you need way more if he does. IMO it is for the Oilers. All of Serg's and for that matter Chychruns offensive production point to them being successful. The common trend for Dmen picked in the top 10-15 who really struggle is draft year ppg being low. All of the "busts" except for Bogosian and Murray (who both had injury issues) all have draft year ppg from .5 - .7 or lower including playoffs. Sergachev is at .86 which is right up with guys like Jones, Rielly, Petro, Ekblad, Doughty, Provorov, Hamilton etc. Guys that are/will be successfull. Even players like Dumba and Pouliot who have had some early problems are only 2012 draftees and have a long way to go to be write offs. Plus Serg has better size than both of them which is part of their problems.

 

[McDNicks17]

Fear of the player busting/not reaching their potential. People see a guy like Tkachuk or Dubois and say "okay, there is probably a 90% chance they become 2nd line W/C or better." Then they look at a guy like Sergachev and say "well there's maybe only a 40-50% chance he becomes a #1D." So they want the forward because if you pick the D and he doesn't turn out then it's like you wasted a pick when you could have had a better contributing player. Now the problem for the Oil is that they need a #1D exponentially more than they need another 2nd or even 1st line W/C. So you have to decide if it's worth the greater risk to draft a player who might not turn out, but you need way more if he does. IMO it is for the Oilers. All of Serg's and for that matter Chychruns offensive production point to them being successful. The common trend for Dmen picked in the top 10-15 who really struggle is draft year ppg being low. All of the "busts" except for Bogosian and Murray (who both had injury issues) all have draft year ppg from .5 - .7 or lower including playoffs. Sergachev is at .86 which is right up with guys like Jones, Rielly, Petro, Ekblad, Doughty, Provorov, Hamilton etc. Guys that are/will be successfull. Even players like Dumba and Pouliot who have had some early problems are only 2012 draftees and have a long way to go to be write offs. Plus Serg has better size than both of them which is part of their problems.

Even when looking at their floors, I think you're looking at a far more valuable asset with Sergachev.

Wingers are relatively easy to come by.

 

[suddeninterest]

Even when looking at their floors, I think you're looking at a far more valuable asset with Sergachev.

Wingers are relatively easy to come by.

For sure, even if he ends up a #3 + pp guy, a 50 point winger doesn't get you that right now.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Juulsen had a pretty down year this season. Not the kind of draft+1 year anyone is looking for. No value there.

Agreed. Bear was a 1st team all star, Juulsen was a 2nd team all star.

 

[The Nuge]

I'd make that deal for sure.

Unfortunately Vancouver is getting the raw end of the deal by far though and would never agree IMO.

I'm not so sure. They are wanting to speed things up, so they might just look at that. Plus, they can market Yak as their high skilled, future Sedin replacement (not saying he actually would be)

 

[McDoused]

Yeah but their GM is benning and he always sells for 50 cents on the dollar.

 

[s7ark]

Agreed. Bear was a 1st team all star, Juulsen was a 2nd team all star.

Not very interested in Juulsen at all.