Prospect Info: 2016 Draft | Trading Down From #4 Less Likely Now According to Stauffer

[McFlyingV]

Yes sir. Would have to be waived to be assigned at camp.

I don't think so. Reinhart should be waiver exempt for one more season.

 

[McDavyCrockett]

also, the "thing" that makes me reticent of Tkachuk is him being American born and raised. How long before he'd want out of Edmonton (ie the first winter), and maybe even Canada for that matter (ie the first month that he sees his income tax rate as it compares in the Great White North to the good old US of A). Americans making $1- 5 million a year, just hate like the dickens to pay taxes at the Canadian rate. It's like a $1 million a year just thrown away. His father was a "red/ white/ and blue" American flag kind of guy. I'm just saying .... be forewarned. It may sound harsh, but for the majority of American kids (but not all) it would be a factor. And particularly, I think for the kids, like Tkachuk that went through the US National Development Team program.

Maybe a big metro city like Toronto can hold onto a player like Mathews, but Edmonton isn't in that Toronto sort of "league", it just isn't. A northern Euro player like a Laine or Puljujarvi, can, like an Alfredsson, find a home in smaller Canadian city. But I have my doubts about a player like Tkachuk, and I don't even know anything about him. So .... before picking him, I'd do a heck of a lot of due diligence as to the likelihood of him being comfortable with living full time (and raising a family) in a cold mid-sized Canadian city which is Edmonton which doesn't have even the lure, topography or weather of a Vancouver.

Buyer beware.

Lol what? You really think he's gonna care about any of that when compared to the prospect of riding shotgun with potentially the best player in the league in the future? Winning the Connor McDavid sweepstakes entailed players waiving their NTC to leave Phoenix for Edmonton...... and the consensus best defenseman of the 2015 UFA class signing in Edmonton for the same market value contract he would've received to stay in Los Angeles.

Edmonton is a cold, boring small-market Canadian city (born and raised for my first 23 years)....yes. But if I were a professional millionaire hockey player who can afford to spend a quarter of each year in Cabo- instead of a student loan debt-ridden medical student- I would gladly sacrifice my habitual happiness for 41 games if it meant playing hockey with #97.

 

[McFlyingV]

I think some people put too much weight into 2-way game of these young prospects. Monahan was praised for his 2-way game in his draft, and he's not a good 2-way player in the nhl.

Most of these players develop their 2-way game after being drafted. Tkachuk is an incredibly smart player who loves to go to the net, has incredible vision and passing, a good shot, and is very good at deflections. His skating was not bad at all before his injury.

 

[VainGretzky]

I don't think so. Reinhart should be waiver exempt for one more season.

I am pretty sure its 3 years waiver exempt from the time he signed his 1st NHL contract he signed in aug 2012 so this would be his 4th year.

 

[McFlyingV]

I am pretty sure its 3 years waiver exempt from the time he signed his 1st NHL contract he signed in aug 2012 so this would be his 4th year.

Not according to this:

https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-faq

The 18/19 y/o seasons slide unless they play >10 NHL games.

Also this would have been his 4th season since signing that just happened (2012-13, 13-14, 14-15, 15-16). He's exempt for 5 seasons which would be this one upcoming.

 

[vincent1999]

Lol what? You really think he's gonna care about any of that when compared to the prospect of riding shotgun with potentially the best player in the league in the future? Winning the Connor McDavid sweepstakes entailed players waiving their NTC to leave Phoenix for Edmonton...... and the consensus best defenseman of the 2015 UFA class signing in Edmonton for the same market value contract he would've received to stay in Los Angeles.

Edmonton is a cold, boring small-market Canadian city (born and raised for my first 23 years)....yes. But if I were a professional millionaire hockey player who can afford to spend a quarter of each year in Cabo- instead of a student loan debt-ridden medical student- I would gladly sacrifice my habitual happiness for 41 games if it meant playing hockey with #97.

some straight talk- the "skinny" if you will. Sort of a donut without any glaze or sugar. Perhaps a little unapologetically rude, but we're all friends here, right???
Almost to be on this forum is an admission of let's say "love" for the Oilers.

I wasn't born in Edmonton, but grew up there-- saw Gretzky play lots of times, and have lived in Calgary, Winnipeg, Vancouver, and Halifax, but I do know Canadian folks that have gone to Ivy League schools, and then upon graduation, looked at the numbers/ opportunities and established their professional careers in the US. Look at all the Waterloo Computer Science and Engineering students that are hooking up down south with companies in American cities. It's not just high paid hockey players that see greener pastures south of the border.

very true in terms of perhaps McDavid being somewhat of a draw for a player to consider coming to Edmonton. But .... that's only for some players, not all. Sometimes making 25% more is enough compensation for not perhaps having the opportunity of playing with such a player. And for any in coming player there is NO GUARANTEE that he'll be playing with McDavid, or even be in Edmonton in two or three years or when the time comes to sign his next contract. Hell, probably Hall thought that he would be on McDavid's left side. The best line perhaps fielded by Pittsburgh in the playoffs/ finals was Hagelin, Bonino, and Kessel-- where did that combo come from??? Like who is the "best" fit player(s) to play on the left and right side of a McDavid line???

not sure which player waived his NTC to come to Edmonton, but it was a bottom filler player right??? not a "core" player. And I would wager that he's being paid more $ in Edmonton than offers elsewhere, cos that's what Edmonton has to do to entice players to come to the city.

student loan debt etc, ??? in terms of Tkachuk we are talking about a potentially #4th overall draft pick (if he pans out, how much is he projected to make in an NHL career) and who had a father that was paid like what $50 million in his playing career. Matt's never been in a situation where there is a lack of money.

and sort of part of the issue that I was trying to raise in terms of US personal income taxes versus Canadian is that it also makes a difference in terms of the overall talent that one can accumulate on a team. For instance, for every $4- 5 million in payroll Edmonton, compared to Dallas or Florida or Tampa Bay and others, E. has to overpay the player (s) an extra $1 million to compensate for the lower take home pay, and this is in a salary cap league. To compete with Dallas/ Arizona for Goligoski in terms of take home pay, Edmonton has to offer an extra $1 million on the contract. So, Edmonton's salary cap may be $70 million but it's only getting $56 million of effective player value compared to some US teams, and less so compared to some others.

a legitimate question might be under such circumstances whether a Canadian team will ever win the Stanley Cup again???

and also, of course, it's naïve not to recognize that the players in the league who have no movement clauses excepting for a certain number of teams almost exclusively include sometimes all Canadian teams. Why is that??? Responsible Canadian management takes this stuff into account.

and "American nationalism" is real-- anyone who ever watches American television absolutely knows this.

drafting an "American" kid is not without risk. And I would suggest that Tkachuk (Phoenix born, St. Louis raised kid, and partly developed in the "nationalistic" USNDT program) needs to project as a quantifiably better prospect compared to Dubois (a Quebec born, raised and developed kid) in order for the Edmonton Oilers management to select him. If the two players are a "pick'em"/ coin toss, it should be a slam dunk choice.

 

[nexttothemoon]

My top prospect list based on expectations of how they may pan out in the NHL...

Matthews
>>
Laine
>
McAvoy
>>>
Thompson
>
Brown=Sergachev=Tkachuk
>
Chychrun
>>
Dineen=Kunin=Puljujarvi=Bastian
>
Nylander
>
Mascherin=Dubois=Bellows
>
Sokolov
>
McLeod
>
Allard
>
Debrincat=Raddysh
>
Benson=Bean=Keller
>
Gauthier
>>
Krys
>
Girard=Howden=Juolevi=Lajoie


Might be a little unconventional ranking system but that's how I would project them right now.

 

[McDavyCrockett]

some straight talk- the "skinny" if you will. Sort of a donut without any glaze or sugar. Perhaps a little unapologetically rude, but we're all friends here, right???
Almost to be on this forum is an admission of let's say "love" for the Oilers.

I wasn't born in Edmonton, but grew up there-- saw Gretzky play lots of times, and have lived in Calgary, Winnipeg, Vancouver, and Halifax, but I do know Canadian folks that have gone to Ivy League schools, and then upon graduation, looked at the numbers/ opportunities and established their professional careers in the US. Look at all the Waterloo Computer Science and Engineering students that are hooking up down south with companies in American cities. It's not just high paid hockey players that see greener pastures south of the border.

This is precisely what I was alluding to.....we (I) as working class/professional people would much rather live in warmer climates/more appealing cities down in the U.S. because we don't have the amenities provided to us that multi-millionaire professional athletes do.....no matter how much work we put in and how hard we strive, we will not be making that kind of money or getting to travel for half of our work schedule (staying in luxury hotel rooms at no expense).......McDavid, Hall, Monahan, Gaudreau, Karlsson, Scheifele, Trouba, etc. all get- on an annual basis- a break from the depressed living as young, handsome, 20-something rich kids residing in small, boring Canadian cities when they travel to L.A., NYC, Miami, Tampa, San Jose, Phoenix, etc......you and I don't have that option.

Thus, keeping that in the back of one's mind, why should Matthew Tkachuk be so tortured by the fact that he has to endure -30 winters- for a fraction of the time as that of the average Edmontonian- when the plus-side is getting to play with the future best player in the world? You do realize that Chris Pronger *loved*Edmonton right? Probably moreso than his wife hated it.



not sure which player waived his NTC to come to Edmonton, but it was a bottom filler player right??? not a "core" player. And I would wager that he's being paid more $ in Edmonton than offers elsewhere, cos that's what Edmonton has to do to entice players to come to the city.

Yeah it was Korpikoski....but that is immaterial. Fact is, he had the option of nixing that trade last year and yet he voluntarily left the comforts of his Scottsdale golf course to go catch frostbite in Edmonton......and Sekera received the same dollar offer from the Kings, and yet he passed up Hollywood for Whyte Ave.

student loan debt etc, ??? in terms of Tkachuk we are talking about a potentially #4th overall draft pick (if he pans out, how much is he projected to make in an NHL career) and who had a father that was paid like what $50 million in his playing career. Matt's never been in a situation where there is a lack of money.

Lol no, I was referring to myself and contrasting the situation with Tkachuk.

a legitimate question might be under such circumstances whether a Canadian team will ever win the Stanley Cup again???

Don't get this pessimism (not that I really care about the other 6 teams).....between 2003 and 2011, 4 of the 6 teams made runs to the finals (3 of which went to Game 7).....why can't it happen in the future??

PS: Toronto might be a "major, metro" city with nice flashing lights, but the toxic media fishbowl effect renders it one of the top-5 least desirable destinations to play in the league.... and has UFAs avoiding them like the plague. It's gonna be funny to watch when Cox, Simmons, Feschuk, etc. revert to their usual buffoonery in doing to Auston Matthews what they did to Sundin, Kessel, and every other star in that market since time immemorial.

Responses in bold.

 

[kelsier]

As a fan of Puljujärvi I'd be truly delighted to see him land on the Oilers since the Columbus is willing to trade down. Of course that would still cost a king's ransom. The Oilers have the pieces to make it happen.

The possibility of seeing another legendary duo of McDavid - Puljujärvi would paint up so many headlines nation wide since no one will ever forget Gretzky and Kurri. Almost felt bad on the lottery day for the Oilers not landing in to the top three.

I'm not expecting this to happen and I know you guys need defence over forwards but atleast there's always the possibility and one can dream.

 

[lakai17]

I am high on Abramov. Kid has wheels + vision and many are sleeping on him.

 

[Panda Bear]

and sort of part of the issue that I was trying to raise in terms of US personal income taxes versus Canadian is that it also makes a difference in terms of the overall talent that one can accumulate on a team. For instance, for every $4- 5 million in payroll Edmonton, compared to Dallas or Florida or Tampa Bay and others, E. has to overpay the player (s) an extra $1 million to compensate for the lower take home pay, and this is in a salary cap league. To compete with Dallas/ Arizona for Goligoski in terms of take home pay, Edmonton has to offer an extra $1 million on the contract. So, Edmonton's salary cap may be $70 million but it's only getting $56 million of effective player value compared to some US teams, and less so compared to some others.

183 days rule for tax residency, 10k/day exemption, and international tax credits.

The NHL schedule ensures that Americans on Canadian teams do not have to spend more than 183 days living in Canada, which means that they are able to claim their tax residency outside of Canada. Players earn their money across four different provinces and sixteen states. Some American cities even have city taxes on income.

Playing one game against every team, even if it takes two years to do a home and away, helps taxation parity within the league.

I'll baseline American resident playing for an American team at 0, and then the other combinations relative to that in a percentage. This is derived from Buffalo and Toronto.

1) American resident playing for an American team: 0
2) American resident playing for a Canadian team: -2.4%
3) Canadian resident playing for an American team: -8.5%
4) Canadian resident playing for a Canadian team: -4.2%

If you're playing in Alberta or BC, you're even closer to Scenario 1 due to taking home more money from lower provincial taxes.

If you're playing in Florida, Nevada (!) or Texas, then you're laughing your way to the bank. If you're a Canadian resident playing in a state without income tax, you're paying about as much as you would in taxes were you playing in Canada.

So we do have a signing disadvantage for American players, but it's not severe. Most people would sacrifice 2.4% of their total pay if it were the difference between unrewarding and rewarding work (or no playoffs versus playoffs) and a good quality of life.

American teams trying to attract Canadians who want to spend their time off in BC are at a bigger disadvantage than we are--unless they're one of the three aforementioned states.

 

[Panda Bear]

Now that I've covered off the tax part, we can go back to arguing whether Edmonton is a nice place to live followed by arguments that a city is only as good as the people you know.

 

[Hemsky4PM]

I'm starting to feel more confident that Chiarelli is going to go with Dubois.

Part of the reason being the goofy and over-the-top pumping of Tkachuk by Stauffer. I think you're usually safer to go against Stauffer's opinion than with it.

Dubois ticks more boxes for the Oilers and could be scary good on the RW with Draisaitl or McDavid.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I'm really starting to lean towards Juolevi here.

Look at how difficult it is for us to land quality dmen.

If Juolevi becomes a top pairing dman, no team would trade him for a Tkachuk or Dubois. As good as those 2 players are, they aren't incredibly rare. Lucic, Eriksson and Ladd are all comparables and they can be had as UFA's. How many top pair dmen out there on free agent market?

 

[ManofSteel55]

I am pretty sure its 3 years waiver exempt from the time he signed his 1st NHL contract he signed in aug 2012 so this would be his 4th year.

I don't think so. Reinhart should be waiver exempt for one more season.

Are we really worried about anyone taking him though? I mean, if he has a major breakout and we have to protect him, that's a good thing.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I'm really starting to lean towards Juolevi here.

Look at how difficult it is for us to land quality dmen.

If Juolevi becomes a top pairing dman, no team would trade him for a Tkachuk or Dubois. As good as those 2 players are, they aren't incredibly rare. Lucic, Eriksson and Ladd are all comparables and they can be had as UFA's. How many top pair dmen out there on free agent market?

But d-men are harder to predict. What if Joulevi isn't a future stud and is actually a Cam Barker or Brian Lee?

 

[North]

I'm really starting to lean towards Juolevi here.

Look at how difficult it is for us to land quality dmen.

If Juolevi becomes a top pairing dman, no team would trade him for a Tkachuk or Dubois. As good as those 2 players are, they aren't incredibly rare. Lucic, Eriksson and Ladd are all comparables and they can be had as UFA's. How many top pair dmen out there on free agent market?

If Tkachuk and Dubois become top line wingers and Juolevi becomes a second pairing d man, no team would trade their top line winger for a second pairing d man.

Demers, Hamhuis, etc can be had in free agency.

It works both ways.

Oil have to pick who they think is BPA and I'm convinced while they do like Juolevi, they like Tkachuk and Dubois more at 4.

 

[Panda Bear]

But d-men are harder to predict. What if Joulevi isn't a future stud and is actually a Cam Barker or Brian Lee?

No chance.

He'd bust more like a Gormley or Blum: overrated hockey IQ.

 

[lakai17]

Nice to see some still high on Dubois and Juolevi. The first forward and defenceman I would go for. Although high on Sergachev and Keller also.

 

[McFlyingV]

Are we really worried about anyone taking him though? I mean, if he has a major breakout and we have to protect him, that's a good thing.

If he were waiver eligible this year (he's not), then I'm sure some rebuilding team would take a waiver on him to see how he can develop in the NHL. Luckily we can send him down for a good chunk to start the year if he's not ready in camp and then if he has a great 2nd half or whatever then he might be worth protecting in expansion. Or if he doesn't and we keep him unprotected for expansion then maybe he gets picked up over one of the forwards we want to keep but can't protect. There's actually bonuses to having several intriguing but not great pieces unprotected in the draft lottery because it might let you keep a player your might otherwise lose. Thats why I'm not opposed to keeping Yak another year if all he's going to bring back is a crap pick or can't be included as an add on to a bigger deal.

 

[nexttothemoon]

If he were waiver eligible this year (he's not), then I'm sure some rebuilding team would take a waiver on him to see how he can develop in the NHL. Luckily we can send him down for a good chunk to start the year if he's not ready in camp and then if he has a great 2nd half or whatever then he might be worth protecting in expansion. Or if he doesn't and we keep him unprotected for expansion then maybe he gets picked up over one of the forwards we want to keep but can't protect. There's actually bonuses to having several intriguing but not great pieces unprotected in the draft lottery because it might let you keep a player your might otherwise lose. Thats why I'm not opposed to keeping Yak another year if all he's going to bring back is a crap pick or can't be included as an add on to a bigger deal.

I think part of the issue at this point is the feelings are likely mutual... Yak is done with the Oilers and wants to move on and the Oilers are likely done with Yak and want to move on as well... it would be better for Yak on a different team and environment and the Oilers could replace him with a player that integrates with the team better in terms of meshing with the other top 6/9 players... and maybe have someone there with less innate talent but who has more physicality/grit as part of their game.

For example... I don't know how many would agree... but who would be open to something like a Yak for Clifford deal straight up if that was available?

 

[Faelko]

So...what are the odds Tkachuck is an Oiler Friday night? 90%?

 

[SK13]

So...what are the odds Tkachuck is an Oiler Friday night? 90%?

I'd probably put it at ~40%, with Pierre-Luc Dubois and a trade involving the pick occupying a lesser share.

For all the discussion in this thread about off-the-board selections, it seems like there are only two legitimate picks at #4 for the Oilers (unless something goofy happens at pick #3) - Tkachuk and Dubois.

 

[PBandJ]

I'd probably put it at ~40%, with Pierre-Luc Dubois and a trade involving the pick occupying a lesser share.

For all the discussion in this thread about off-the-board selections, it seems like there are only two legitimate picks at #4 for the Oilers (unless something goofy happens at pick #3) - Tkachuk and Dubois.

I'm thinking the same.

I really hope they don't reach for a D at 4. Trade down if you want one of the D so badly.

 

[Tarus]

So...what are the odds Tkachuck is an Oiler Friday night? 90%?

I wouldn't be surprised if it's quite high, Tkachuk is pretty much exactly what Chiarelli wants in hockey players for the team. Competitiveness, size, hockey sense, aggression; he ticks off all the boxes.