Prospect Info: 2016 Draft | Trading Down From #4 Less Likely Now According to Stauffer

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vincent1999

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May 5, 2014
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calling for a tax lawyer

183 days rule for tax residency, 10k/day exemption, and international tax credits.

The NHL schedule ensures that Americans on Canadian teams do not have to spend more than 183 days living in Canada, which means that they are able to claim their tax residency outside of Canada. Players earn their money across four different provinces and sixteen states. Some American cities even have city taxes on income.

Playing one game against every team, even if it takes two years to do a home and away, helps taxation parity within the league.

I'll baseline American resident playing for an American team at 0, and then the other combinations relative to that in a percentage. This is derived from Buffalo and Toronto.

1) American resident playing for an American team: 0
2) American resident playing for a Canadian team: -2.4%
3) Canadian resident playing for an American team: -8.5%
4) Canadian resident playing for a Canadian team: -4.2%

If you're playing in Alberta or BC, you're even closer to Scenario 1 due to taking home more money from lower provincial taxes.

If you're playing in Florida, Nevada (!) or Texas, then you're laughing your way to the bank. If you're a Canadian resident playing in a state without income tax, you're paying about as much as you would in taxes were you playing in Canada.

So we do have a signing disadvantage for American players, but it's not severe. Most people would sacrifice 2.4% of their total pay if it were the difference between unrewarding and rewarding work (or no playoffs versus playoffs) and a good quality of life.

American teams trying to attract Canadians who want to spend their time off in BC are at a bigger disadvantage than we are--unless they're one of the three aforementioned states.


I'm not a tax lawyer, but I still think that your statement is fraught with a lot of stuff that isn't actually per se true, and frankly I'm confused, what you are saying just doesn't make sense to me.

I've seen some journalism/ reporting that substantiates essentially the points I was making. ie a player on a Canadian hockey team pays an extra $1 million in income tax on a $4 million salary as compared to a player on an American team (such as those in the state of Texas and Florida). The "nationality" of the player, whether it be Canadian, American, Swedish, Russian, Slovakian, exactly how is that supposed to be a determinant in terms of employment income and taxation??? Your percentage differences, aren't in the ball game as to the difference for Canadians or Americans playing for teams in the US or Canada. Hell, there might be a 15% difference for an American player playing in Dallas versus one playing in New York. Right???? State tax in the US varies by quite a bit from one state in another.

183 days might be relevant wrt snow birds, but hockey players and hockey players WITH FAMILIES, and investments, and real estate--- there is a whole bunch of stuff to consider.

Also, the US taxes on "world-wide income" (unlike Canada), and I can't imagine that income earned on employment work performed in the US to an American hockey team by a non-American player would be allocable to the Canadian Tax system and not be taxed by the federal US (and state) tax system. Hell, the US skims off some of the dividend income that I get on US investments, and I don't live one day in the US. Being a Canadian resident doesn't get a player playing for an American hockey team off the hook for paying US taxes (and state taxes if applicable) on employment income earned as being for instance a contractual member of the Dallas Stars hockey team/ organization.

Also, your idea about earning income in 4 Canadian provinces and 16 US states depending on where one plays the hockey game, just ... to me .... makes no sense. Commonsense suggests that if a player plays for the Dallas Stars hockey team, that his income is treated for tax purposes as US income and as income within the state of Texas whether he is American, Canadian, or "Hungarian". And a Dallas Star's player isn't paying Canadian and Alberta income tax on the game or two every year that he plays in Edmonton.

And a Canadian resident/ player doesn't pay income taxes relevant to Texas and the US when he plays a game in Dallas.
 

vincent1999

Registered User
May 5, 2014
257
1
swamp land

Excellent, informative post. Thanks for compiling that.


Originally Posted by Panda Bear View Post

183 days rule for tax residency, 10k/day exemption, and international tax credits.

The NHL schedule ensures that Americans on Canadian teams do not have to spend more than 183 days living in Canada, which means that they are able to claim their tax residency outside of Canada. Players earn their money across four different provinces and sixteen states. Some American cities even have city taxes on income.

Playing one game against every team, even if it takes two years to do a home and away, helps taxation parity within the league.

I'll baseline American resident playing for an American team at 0, and then the other combinations relative to that in a percentage. This is derived from Buffalo and Toronto.

1) American resident playing for an American team: 0
2) American resident playing for a Canadian team: -2.4%
3) Canadian resident playing for an American team: -8.5%
4) Canadian resident playing for a Canadian team: -4.2%

If you're playing in Alberta or BC, you're even closer to Scenario 1 due to taking home more money from lower provincial taxes.

If you're playing in Florida, Nevada (!) or Texas, then you're laughing your way to the bank. If you're a Canadian resident playing in a state without income tax, you're paying about as much as you would in taxes were you playing in Canada.

So we do have a signing disadvantage for American players, but it's not severe. Most people would sacrifice 2.4% of their total pay if it were the difference between unrewarding and rewarding work (or no playoffs versus playoffs) and a good quality of life.

American teams trying to attract Canadians who want to spend their time off in BC are at a bigger disadvantage than we are--unless they're one of the three aforementioned states.

Excellent, informative post. Thanks for compiling that.


excuse me, but buyer beware. I think PANDA BEAR is selling a lot of "swamp land". And I totally think that his post is "misinformation" of the highest level of dubious quality.
 

vincent1999

Registered User
May 5, 2014
257
1

thanks for the link

so on $70 million, the difference between Edmonton and Florida/ Texas is a little less than $6 million in payable combined taxes (federal and state/ province probably based on the % number identified)

and then there are differences on capital gains/ investment income, personal exemptions/ housing mortgage interest allowance in the US etc etc

and housing/ real estate is maybe on the order of half the cost in the US (such as in Texas), and there is municipal taxes, gas taxes, and a whole bunch of other disclosed and uncited taxes within the Canadian system as compared to the US.

there is also "sales" in various jurisdictions of varying consideration

wrt medical well, the employer picks up the cost for that in the US
 

vincent1999

Registered User
May 5, 2014
257
1
Ganer and Tkachuk

Gagner has better mitts but Tkachuk is much stronger and better built for the pro game. Perhaps there's a reason or two that Tkachuk is rated much higher than Gagner was?

actually Tkachuk and Gagner are/ were rated pretty much the same.

Gagner was rated CS #6 NA and the top Euro ended up going #13 overall in 2007, so he was sitting as #6 overall
Tkachuk is rated CS #2 NA, but the #1- 3 top European players will all be drafted before him, so he's sort of really sitting at #5 overall in 2016
 

Bangers

Registered User
May 31, 2006
3,919
868
actually Tkachuk and Gagner are/ were rated pretty much the same.

Gagner was rated CS #6 NA and the top Euro ended up going #13 overall in 2007, so he was sitting as #6 overall
Tkachuk is rated CS #2 NA, but the #1- 3 top European players will all be drafted before him, so he's sort of really sitting at #5 overall in 2016

Gagner's draft was considered to be much weaker at the time than this one.
 

Fourier

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Dec 29, 2006
26,701
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Waterloo Ontario
thanks for the link

so on $70 million, the difference between Edmonton and Florida/ Texas is a little less than $6 million in payable combined taxes (federal and state/ province probably based on the % number identified)

and then there are differences on capital gains/ investment income, personal exemptions/ housing mortgage interest allowance in the US etc etc

and housing/ real estate is maybe on the order of half the cost in the US (such as in Texas), and there is municipal taxes, gas taxes, and a whole bunch of other disclosed and uncited taxes within the Canadian system as compared to the US.

there is also "sales" in various jurisdictions of varying consideration

wrt medical well, the employer picks up the cost for that in the US

Until the recent elections the Oilers were in the lowest tax district in the NHL yet they were not the prime destination for UFA's. And while there is a tax advantage for residents of Florida, Texas and Nashville, the Oilers are competitive with respect to pretty much every other jurisdiction and have an advantage over some of the prime markets in the US. So while taxation is a factor, it is relatively minor in comparison with the #1 consideration assuming equal salary offers: Is the team a contender or will it be soon.
 

dem

Registered User
Mar 17, 2002
7,182
3,288
Is this still a draft thread?

Is any body worried that if the Oilers draft Tkachuk they'll be handing the Canucks a future no.1 C in Dubois?

I'm more worried the Canucks will go with Juolevi.. and the FLAMES will get Dubois.
 

Panda Bear

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Apr 2, 2010
6,665
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I'm not a tax lawyer, but I still think that your statement is fraught with a lot of stuff that isn't actually per se true, and frankly I'm confused, what you are saying just doesn't make sense to me.

blah blah not actually informed blah blah

And a Canadian resident/ player doesn't pay income taxes relevant to Texas and the US when he plays a game in Dallas.
Maybe instead of getting your knickers in a twist that I disagreed with you, you could actually research the subject.

Feel free to Google things like "nhl tax 183 days".
 
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Panda Bear

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Apr 2, 2010
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"Keep in mind that this does not recognize a player’s deductions, credits, exemptions, foreign tax considerations and tax owing in other cities, states or provinces. As you are aware, professional athletes have complex tax situations!"

This is a good tool. Would have been cool to have citizenship and residency options, but they're a business.
 

Zaddy

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Feb 8, 2013
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So let's get back to the draft talk shall we?

If you look at Bob McKenzies rankings the Oilers could come out of the draft with:

4. Matthew Tkachuk, LW (London Knights, OHL)
32. Pascal Laberge, RW (Victoriaville Tigres, QMJHL)
63. Jonathan Dahlén, LW (Timrå IK, Allsvenskan)

That would be a pretty solid way of adding some much needed prospect depth up front.
 

CornKicker

Holland is wrong..except all of the good things
Feb 18, 2005
12,151
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So let's get back to the draft talk shall we?

If you look at Bob McKenzies rankings the Oilers could come out of the draft with:

4. Matthew Tkachuk, LW (London Knights, OHL)
32. Pascal Laberge, RW (Victoriaville Tigres, QMJHL)
63. Jonathan Dahlén, LW (Timrå IK, Allsvenskan)

That would be a pretty solid way of adding some much needed prospect depth up front.

ZZ do you think Dahlen could fall that far? i dont
 

Zaddy

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Feb 8, 2013
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ZZ do you think Dahlen could fall that far? i dont

I have Dahlén ranked in the 1st round but everyone else seem to be down on him. Bob McKenzie has him ranked #62 and our 3rd round pick is at #63 so, it would seem there is a chance that he's still there yeah. HockeyProspect are basically the only ones that have him ranked in the 1st round, everyone else like FC, McKeens, ISS has him ranked in the 50's and I think Button has him even lower. I mean, if nothing else, you could potentially use two of the 3rds to trade up into the mid/late 2nd round and nab him if he's still around.
 

Spawn

Something in the water
Feb 20, 2006
44,478
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Edmonton
Stauffer just said that if the Oilers pick at 4 he thinks they'll take Tkachuk. Nothing surprising really, and it didn't sound like "inside" information.

But it goes along with everything we've heard/have been thinking.
 

Tarus

Registered User
Jun 22, 2006
9,613
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Edmonton
Stauffer just said that if the Oilers pick at 4 he thinks they'll take Tkachuk. Nothing surprising really, and it didn't sound like "inside" information.

But it goes along with everything we've heard/have been thinking.

The growing sentiment that Tkachuk might have the best hockey sense in the draft probably cinches it.
 

Panda Bear

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Apr 2, 2010
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Tkachuk is #4 without a doubt at this point. He'd be a wonderful fit with our forwards on any line.

I'd be interested to see our draft list. If we were to move down with Phoenix's #7 and #20, would we be trying to nab Juolevi or Sergachev? At #20, or try to grab a hopeful power forward like Jones or Gauthier?

If we were to do Carolina's #11 and someone like Pesce who showed real well, do we grab Chychrun if he's available? I firmly believe Chychrun's "IQ" issues are from him overthinking his game to justify his draft hype followed by trying to get that hype back. We didn't see these issues last year.

I think Sergachev's physical development knocks him down a few pegs compared to Juolevi, who definitely needs to fill out. There's room for Juolevi to grow his game just like scouts saw with Ryan Johansen.
 
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Panda Bear

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Apr 2, 2010
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My draft guide is now available. I hope you guys enjoy. Can't wait till Friday.

2016 Blue Bullet Draft Guide
I'm going to be referencing this constantly until Friday.

Question: you project Auston Matthews at 917 games played. If he plays 75 games a season, then that's just over twelve seasons. Given that he's going to be in the NHL next year, that implies he'll be done by age 30 instead of a more 35-38 we've seen from former first overalls.

Why is that? Patrick Stefan bringing the numbers down? If so, why isn't he discounted as an outlier? If no, how can it be remedied?
 

Zaddy

Registered User
Feb 8, 2013
13,058
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Tkachuk is #4 without a doubt at this point. He'd be a wonderful fit with our forwards on any line.

I'd be interested to see our draft list. If we were to move down with Phoenix's #7 and #20, would we be trying to nab Juolevi or Sergachev? At #20, or try to grab a hopeful power forward like Jones or Gauthier?

If we were to do Carolina's #11 and someone like Pesce who showed real well, do we grab Chychrun if he's available? I firmly believe Chychrun's "IQ" issues are from him overthinking his game to justify his draft hype followed by trying to get that hype back. We didn't see these issues last year.

I think Sergachev's physical development knocks him down a few pegs compared to Juolevi, who definitely needs to fill out. There's room for Juolevi to grow his game just like scouts saw with Ryan Johansen.

I don't think the Arizona deal is going to happen. It seems they would rather move down than up if anything. If Oilers trade down I hope they're targeting Sergachyov. If it's further down I'd be OK with Fabbro.
 

BoldNewLettuce

Esquire
Dec 21, 2008
28,253
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Canada
Untitledging.jpg
 
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