Prospect Info: 2016 Draft | Trading Down From #4 Less Likely Now According to Stauffer

[Faelko]

When does the draft actually start?

I think 5:00

 

[djdub]

I'm going to be referencing this constantly until Friday.

Question: you project Auston Matthews at 917 games played. If he plays 75 games a season, then that's just over twelve seasons. Given that he's going to be in the NHL next year, that implies he'll be done by age 30 instead of a more 35-38 we've seen from former first overalls.

Why is that? Patrick Stefan bringing the numbers down? If so, why isn't he discounted as an outlier? If no, how can it be remedied?

Because I think a player who players 75 games a season is an outlier.

Injuries happen and I think statistically speaking they are more common than not...

 

[McDavyCrockett]

I'm only OK with Tkachuk if Chiarelli is convinced he has signing Lucic in the bag.....

McDavid, Draisaitl, Hall, RNH, Eberle, Tkachuk....we only have one top-6 forward who plays/can play a heavy game in this division.

We're gonna get chewed out (again) when we go up against Koptiar/Toffoli/Pearson/Carter/Getzlaf/Perry/Rakell/etc

 

[Raab]

I'm only OK with Tkachuk if Chiarelli is convinced he has signing Lucic in the bag.....

McDavid, Draisaitl, Hall, RNH, Eberle, Tkachuk....we only have one top-6 forward who plays/can play a heavy game in this division.

We're gonna get chewed out (again) when we go up against Koptiar/Toffoli/Pearson/Carter/Getzlaf/Perry/Rakell/etc

Tkachuk plays a bigger game then Dubois. He's actually the definition of Western Conference winger IMO. Ive said it before but he reminds me a lot of Ryan Smyth. Just simply doesn't stop battling.

 

[Panda Bear]

Because I think a player who players 75 games a season is an outlier.

Injuries happen and I think statistically speaking they are more common than not...

I don't think so. 75 is pretty common.

230 players from the 894 who appeared this season played in 75 games or more, which is about the 75th percentile. If you introduce a minimum 10 games played, it's 735 players, which is the 69th percentile. Median this season was 58 games. Even if Matthews were only to play the median number of games every season, he'd still be retiring at age 34 assuming no lockouts--all the while being labelled incredibly injury prone.

Auston would have to have a couple lockouts and an injury history like Jason Spezza in order to reach 917 games by age 34. Even Gaborik is over 917 games, and he's played a full season only once in his career.

But when it comes to #1 players who have less than 917 games by the time they've left the league? Patrik Stefan at 455, Rick DiPietro with 318 with an injury-riddled career in a position that rarely sees 70+ games a season, and Ilya Kovalchuk left the league to play in the KHL.

That said, you've got Yakupov from 2012, and I doubt he makes it to 917.

 

[Jumptheshark]

For those talking about having Tkchuk in the line up next year.. just no

at least one more year in junior if not two--we now have the ability NOT to rush first round kids. I have yet to see any scouting reports that say he is ready for the NHL

 

[SDig14]

I think it's possible Tkachuk could be ready for the NHL on a 3rd line in 2017-18, but minimum 1 more year of junior.

 

[kurtcobang]

I really hope Sean Day is there at 63.
Having 3 picks 60-90 is a good place to find a gem or a project like Day.
We need more Ethan Bear type sleeper picks if we are going to be competitive for the next 10 years.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Man this team needs better D badly... I mean I was just reflecting on the fact that let's say the Oilers do acquire Hamonic for example... that's not likely to be THE solution either.

The Isles had Hamonic, Boychuk and Leddy... all are better than anything the Oilers have and still the Isles basically did nothing... I mean yes they made the playoffs but went nowhere when it counted the most.

The Oilers need to acquire at a minimum 2 top 4 dmen to even start moving the needle in the right direction and honestly 3 are almost needed imo as they don't have a top pairing guy right now... all of Klefbom/Sekera/Davidson are basically average to good 3/4 type dmen at best and when you account for the inevitable string of injuries that will likely hit again... well I would rather go "overkill" on acquiring dmen than do the 1-and-done (at best) strategy that this team has employed in the past.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Surprised that no gingzilla hate came from this

 

[MoneyGuy]

When does the draft actually start?

For me 7 pm when I return home and get the PVR going.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Tkachuk plays a bigger game then Dubois. He's actually the definition of Western Conference winger IMO. Ive said it before but he reminds me a lot of Ryan Smyth. Just simply doesn't stop battling.

His shot is about 100 times better than Smytty's, though.

I can't think of another pro hockey player whose shot was that bad.

 

[Seachd]

 

[BarDownBobo]

So let's get back to the draft talk shall we?

If you look at Bob McKenzies rankings the Oilers could come out of the draft with:

4. Matthew Tkachuk, LW (London Knights, OHL)
32. Pascal Laberge, RW (Victoriaville Tigres, QMJHL)
63. Jonathan Dahlén, LW (Timrå IK, Allsvenskan)

That would be a pretty solid way of adding some much needed prospect depth up front.

I'm personally hoping we can snag Debrincat at #32. Even at his size he fits our team needs to a tee being a RH sniper who isn't afraid to play with an edge. Plus you've got the added bonus of chemistry with McDavid. Ever since Bobby Macs list came out I've been dreaming about a potential line of Tkachuk-McDavid-Debrincat in the future, and I love it even as a guy who's been highly against drafting Tkachuk for the longest time.

Dahlen at 62 would just be the icing on the cake. If we walk out of the draft with Tkachuk, a RH winger who can score and Dahlen for our first three picks I'll be doing cartwheels no matter who the other picks end up being.

 

[McDrai]

Really? I thought Laine was a lock at 2

 

[nexttothemoon]

So... who is the wildcard prospect that could be taken at #2?
Puljujarvi...Tkachuk...Dubois?

Imagine some team goes hog wild over Tkachuk after his Memorial Cup run and trades up to get him... say up to the #2 pick... then another team wants a big C prospect badly and trades up to get Dubois at #3... leaving the Oilers with the fun of choosing between Laine and Puljujarvi at #4

 

[McDNicks17]

Really? I thought Laine was a lock at 2

That's pretty surprising.

I thought Laine was closer to Matthews than Pulju was to Laine.

 

[McDrai]

That's pretty surprising.

I thought Laine was closer to Matthews than Pulju was to Laine.

I'm going to guess it's a plot to get more people to watch the nhl draft. Laine is an absolute lock at 2. 100% should be the #2 pick

 

[nexttothemoon]

That's pretty surprising.

I thought Laine was closer to Matthews than Pulju was to Laine.

I'd be pretty shocked if Matthews-Laine didn't go 1-2.

I wouldn't at all be shocked if Puljujarvi didn't go #3... in fact if I were a betting man I'd say the odds are very high that some prospect other than Puljujarvi goes at that #3 spot.

 

[McDoused]

That's pretty surprising.

I thought Laine was closer to Matthews than Pulju was to Laine.

In terms of skill sure, but I could see teams falling in love with Puljus character and ambition.

 

[nexttothemoon]

If Laine is still there at #3... the Oilers should definitely swing into action to try and trade up 1 spot to get him.

 

[Cooperalls]

The Jets are pretty good a keeping things in house. They'll take Laine.

 

[McDynasty]

Oh please it is a little early to be contemplating this. Chiarelli made himself extremely clear that his top priority is fixing the defense. Just because a couple of teams have jumped ahead of the game on some 2nd tier defensemen doesn't mean we're doomed.

There are a handful of teams who were labeled as being the top aggressors this offseason, and none of them have pounced yet. The time right around the draft is when the real action gets started.

I hope your right, All this activity in the league and with the Oilers not doing much has me a little worried. I really hope there is a blockbuster of a trade to land a legit #1d.

normally I would say that this is an exaggeration, but I think this may be the case. It is looking like the Pacific division will be upgrading yet again, and so it's not just that we have to make ground on our poor performance this season, but the bar for success in this division is probably getting raised again, just like last year. They added Gudbranson already, and their GM is very much in win-now mode.

Anaheim lost Andersen, but Gibson is for real. At least Andersen didn't go to Calgary, but the Flames will likely be upgraded in net compared to last season. Also of course the Coyotes added to their defensive depth and will probably be quite aggressive if for no other reason other than to reach the cap floor. Vancouver will probably add a few players.

However, I'm still very confident that we will be one of the most aggressive teams this offseason. We might not get the caliber of upgrades we really want, but the team will revamped. Also, we had a lot of injuries last year. Adding Klefbom is basically like a new player to us. We started winning a lot of games before he got injured. Also, many players emerged for us in the 2nd half. Talbot, Maroon, Davidson, and a few others. If we changed nothing we'd still likely be a fair bit better. Not enough probably, but still.

Damn you are Mr. Positive, I wish I had the same confidence. I think without 2 significant Defense upgrades we are the same team.

 

[Raab]

So... who is the wildcard prospect that could be taken at #2?
Puljujarvi...Tkachuk...Dubois?

Imagine some team goes hog wild over Tkachuk after his Memorial Cup run and trades up to get him... say up to the #2 pick... then another team wants a big C prospect badly and trades up to get Dubois at #3... leaving the Oilers with the fun of choosing between Laine and Puljujarvi at #4

If they don't go Laine, its Puljujarvi 100% for sure.

 

[McFlyingV]

I think it's possible Tkachuk could be ready for the NHL on a 3rd line in 2017-18, but minimum 1 more year of junior.

Not sure I agree. I think there's a chance he could be ready for 3rd line this year and top 6 next, but could still see him being sent down for another year of junior. I just don't see a ton of weakness in his game at the NHL level other than maybe developing his 2-way game a bit. His skating when healthy is average NHL quality.