Prospect Info: 2016 Draft | Trading Down From #4 Less Likely Now According to Stauffer

[Raab]

If we're dealing Draisaitl for d-help aside from Subban, Chiarelli better do the smart thing and take Dubois as a future replacement. Dubois is a stronger two-way player than Draisaitl was and plays more of a PF game from the highlights I've seen.

McDavid, RNH, Dubois would be the best comprehensive center core in the conference, second in the league behind the Pens.

Dubois is also a left winger... If they trade Draisaitl and not the pick I'd take Brown, Sergachev, or Tkachuk at 4. All would bring something to the team. I think Sergachev has the highest upside which is why he'd be my pick.

 

[Raab]

Yes because drafting a LHD with limited offensive upside who will be good in 3-4 years is the solution..

A great Oiler once said "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." If you don't take a defensemen early in the draft the chances of you drafting a top pairing guy are extremely low. As in once in 20-30 years low.

The Oilers have only ever taken a dman top 10 in the draft twice, the first one was Paul Coffey, the second was Darnell Nurse. Paul Coffey went on to have a Hall of Fame Career, and Darnell Nurse looks like he's on his way to be an effective dman. I'd say theres a good chance if we pick a dman at 4 he becomes at minimum a top 4 dman, and if were lucky we end up with a #1 guy.

 

[dem]

If we don't land an nhl dman player with the pick.. I say f it.. Pick a dman.

The forwards are sexy.. But we don't need them. And apparently no one wants to trade a top dman for a winger. They want a potential replacement in return.


Joulevi or Sergachev.. Come on down.


It's not like Tkachuk is walking into this roster next year anyway.

 

[Senor Catface]

A great Oiler once said "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." If you don't take a defensemen early in the draft the chances of you drafting a top pairing guy are extremely low. As in once in 20-30 years low.

The Oilers have only ever taken a dman top 10 in the draft twice, the first one was Paul Coffey, the second was Darnell Nurse. Paul Coffey went on to have a Hall of Fame Career, and Darnell Nurse looks like he's on his way to be an effective dman. I'd say theres a good chance if we pick a dman at 4 he becomes at minimum a top 4 dman, and if were lucky we end up with a #1 guy.

??

Weber, Keith, Chara, Josi, Subban, Giordano, Byfuglien...

 

[Naslund]

A solid D prospect for sure but clearly not a tier 1 defensive prospect. The Oilers and thier fan based would be mocked for going so far off the board for yet another left shooting defender to add to thier already over stocked pool.

Not to mention any defender picked in this years draft is most likely not able to be a impact defender at the NHL level for at least 3-5 years. Kinda outside the Oilers prime window.

What do you mean outside the window. The Oilers' window is not coming for another 5 years. McDavid and Draisitl are teenagers, and you have a terrible defense. You are not competing for a very long time. Start drafting defensemen and help yourself! Klefbom abd Nurse are not first pairing defenseman. Shattenkirk is not a first pairing defenseman. You have to take a chance and draft them. You don't need a Dubois or Tkachuk to bring you to the next level. What's wrong with you guys! Taking Juolevi make so much sense for your team.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Here is a name to argue about for the late rounds

Cliff Ronning's son Ty Ronning

Yes he is small--but he has his father skill--I am talking 4th or 5th round

 

[PKSpecialist]

??

Weber, Keith, Chara, Josi, Subban, Giordano, Byfuglien...

There are 30 teams in the NHL.....They are out there, but the odds of it happening is what I believe he was alluding to.

For the record, I still take Jakob Chychrun if we make the pick at 4. Due to the recent rankings that came out, my preference would be to trade back, but my scouting efforts this season still tell me Chychrun is the top D, and I would take him ahead of both Tkachuk and Dubois.

 

[PKSpecialist]

Just to put it on record, here is my final mock draft Oiler's results. I don't do a mock draft based on my expectations for the actual draft, I do it based on who I would take at each spot.

4. D - Jakob Chychrun - Sarnia Sting
32. LW - Carl Grundstrom - MODO
63. RW - Wade Allison - Tri-City Storm
84. D - Jordan Sambrook - Erie Otters
91. C - Connor Bunnaman - Kitchener Rangers
123. C - Hudson Elynuik - Spokane Chiefs
149. G - Antoine Samuel - Baie Comeau Drakkar
153. C - Michael O'Leary - Dubuque Fighting Saints
183. LW - Brandon Biro - Spruce Grove Saints

 

[Mr Sakich]

Here is a question. The leafs draft Mathews and the jets pick laine. Columbus is making their choice. Do you want:

A) they pick pulj as everyone thinks they will leaving Dubois available. We might have a deal with the Habs if Dubois is there at 4

B) Columbus picks Dubois to address a team need. We end up with maybe the best player in the draft

I don't know what I am going to be cheering for

 

[Raab]

??

Weber, Keith, Chara, Josi, Subban, Giordano, Byfuglien...

I'm talking per team, some teams have got two of them deep like Nashville which skews it. Some teams like Edmonton have never gotten a top dman late in the draft. Yes thats right we've never selected a top pairing dman ever with a 2nd round pick or lower IIRC.

 

[canwincup]

Do the majority of you guys prefer Tkachuk or Dubois?

 

[Raab]

Do the majority of you guys prefer Tkachuk or Dubois?

If we take a winger it'll be Tkachuk.

 

[canwincup]

If we take a winger it'll be Tkachuk.

Does Edmonton's management group think that Dubois is a winger in the NHL?

 

[Wadewilson]

If we are taking a dman id hope we are trading down, Calgary would love our pick and can't see any of the D going before 6 anyways.

Try and snag their 2-2nds

 

[Joey Moss]

Does Edmonton's management group think that Dubois is a winger in the NHL?

Who knows.. don't think it matters. Supposedly Tkachuk visited Edmonton post combine, Dubois did not.

 

[alphahelix]

A great Oiler once said "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." If you don't take a defensemen early in the draft the chances of you drafting a top pairing guy are extremely low. As in once in 20-30 years low.

The Oilers have only ever taken a dman top 10 in the draft twice, the first one was Paul Coffey, the second was Darnell Nurse. Paul Coffey went on to have a Hall of Fame Career, and Darnell Nurse looks like he's on his way to be an effective dman. I'd say theres a good chance if we pick a dman at 4 he becomes at minimum a top 4 dman, and if were lucky we end up with a #1 guy.

Just because you pick a guy at #4 doesn't make him a top 4 quality player. Hell, goalies that are drafted in the top 5 tend to be really good, lets just pick Carter Hart there! Goaltending problem solved for the next generation! Fiesta time!

Were you an advisor to the LA Kings when they reached for Thomas Hickey at #4? Griffin Reinhart to the Isles at #4 is a little too close to home to joke about.

All that aside, I really like Juolevi. But I think your guy is Sergachyov right? Have to trade down man.

 

[SDig14]

Does Edmonton's management group think that Dubois is a winger in the NHL?

I believe they prefer Tkachuk over Dubois regardless of position for Dubois.

Bob McKenzie did say though those almost all scouts he has talked to view Dubois as a winger at the NHL level.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I believe they prefer Tkachuk over Dubois regardless of position for Dubois.

Bob McKenzie did say though those almost all scouts he has talked to view Dubois as a winger at the NHL level.

I'm not necessarily a huge Dubois backer (if pushed to choose, I'd go with McAvoy as the perfect pick)... but if Dubois is a solid 2-way player with good wheels and is even average on the dot... I see no reason why his game can't translate to centre at the NHL level.

There are certainly players who are power forwards who started their careers as a winger and then adapted to C... the most famous likely being Messier.

 

[Jepprey]

Does Edmonton's management group think that Dubois is a winger in the NHL?

Dubois has told them he wants to be an NHL centre. Although the his fave position is actually the offside RW.

 

[vincent1999]

top pairing d-men

I'm talking per team, some teams have got two of them deep like Nashville which skews it. Some teams like Edmonton have never gotten a top dman late in the draft. Yes thats right we've never selected a top pairing dman ever with a 2nd round pick or lower IIRC.

of the top pair d-men on each team for 2015-2016 (selected by most minutes played per game), so from a pool of 60 players, 30 were selected in the 1st round and 30 were selected in the 2nd round or later or undrafted

30 players 1st round
E. Johnson, D 2006- 1/1, D. Doughty, D 2008- 1/2, V. Hedman, D 2009- 1/2, J. Bouwmeester, D 2002- 1/3, Z. Bogosian, D 2008- 1/3, J. Johnson, D 2005- 1/3, A. Pietrangelo, D 2008- 1/4, A. Larsson, D 2011- 1/4, M. Rielly, D 2012- 1/5, O. Ekman-Larsson, D 2009- 1/6, H. Lindholm, D 2012- 1/6, R. Suter, D 2003- 1/7, R. Ristolainen, D 2013- 1/8, D. Phaneuf, D 2003- 1/9, T. Myers, D 2008- 1/12, D. Hamhuis, D 2001- 1/12, C. Fowler, D 2010- 1/12, R. McDonagh, D 2007- 1/12, R. Hainsey, D 2000- 1/13, B. Seabrook, D 2003- 1/14, D. Kulikov, D 2009- 1/14, E. Karlsson, D 2008- 1/15, N. Leddy, D 2009- 1/16, O. Klefbom, D 2011- 1/19, B. Burns, D 2003- 1/20, M. Del Zotto, D 2008- 1/20, O. Maatta, D 2012- 1/22, J. Carlson, D 2008- 1/27, M. Niskanen, D 2005- 1/28, N. Kronwall, D 2000- 1/29

30 players 2nd round+ or undrafted
J. Muzzin, J. Spurgeon, P. Subban, A. Markov, K. Letang, F. Beauchemin, T. Brodie, M. Giordano, D. Keith, R. Josi, S. Weber, M. Vlasic, D. Byfuglien, Z. Chara, T. Krug, A. Goligoski, D. Savard, A. Edler, J. Faulk, T. Hamonic, M. Streit, K. Russell, J. Klingberg, A. Stralman, M. Hunwick, D. DeKeyser, A. Greene, B. Campbell, D. Girardi, A. Sekera

 

[vincent1999]

of the top pair d-men on each team for 2015-2016 (selected by most minutes played per game), so from a pool of 60 players, 30 were selected in the 1st round and 30 were selected in the 2nd round or later or undrafted

30 players 1st round
E. Johnson, D 2006- 1/1, D. Doughty, D 2008- 1/2, V. Hedman, D 2009- 1/2, J. Bouwmeester, D 2002- 1/3, Z. Bogosian, D 2008- 1/3, J. Johnson, D 2005- 1/3, A. Pietrangelo, D 2008- 1/4, A. Larsson, D 2011- 1/4, M. Rielly, D 2012- 1/5, O. Ekman-Larsson, D 2009- 1/6, H. Lindholm, D 2012- 1/6, R. Suter, D 2003- 1/7, R. Ristolainen, D 2013- 1/8, D. Phaneuf, D 2003- 1/9, T. Myers, D 2008- 1/12, D. Hamhuis, D 2001- 1/12, C. Fowler, D 2010- 1/12, R. McDonagh, D 2007- 1/12, R. Hainsey, D 2000- 1/13, B. Seabrook, D 2003- 1/14, D. Kulikov, D 2009- 1/14, E. Karlsson, D 2008- 1/15, N. Leddy, D 2009- 1/16, O. Klefbom, D 2011- 1/19, B. Burns, D 2003- 1/20, M. Del Zotto, D 2008- 1/20, O. Maatta, D 2012- 1/22, J. Carlson, D 2008- 1/27, M. Niskanen, D 2005- 1/28, N. Kronwall, D 2000- 1/29

30 players 2nd round+ or undrafted
J. Muzzin, J. Spurgeon, P. Subban, A. Markov, K. Letang, F. Beauchemin, T. Brodie, M. Giordano, D. Keith, R. Josi, S. Weber, M. Vlasic, D. Byfuglien, Z. Chara, T. Krug, A. Goligoski, D. Savard, A. Edler, J. Faulk, T. Hamonic, M. Streit, K. Russell, J. Klingberg, A. Stralman, M. Hunwick, D. DeKeyser, A. Greene, B. Campbell, D. Girardi, A. Sekera

an added note:
also of the 1st round players, 14 were top 10, and 16 were #11- 30

so the probability is that a team has a top pairing defense composed of one player chosen in the 1st round and one player a later pick or was undrafted. And the 1st round player is slightly less likely to have been a top 10 pick and slightly more likely to have been from #11- 30 pick

 

[Soundwave]

of the top pair d-men on each team for 2015-2016 (selected by most minutes played per game), so from a pool of 60 players, 30 were selected in the 1st round and 30 were selected in the 2nd round or later or undrafted

30 players 1st round
E. Johnson, D 2006- 1/1, D. Doughty, D 2008- 1/2, V. Hedman, D 2009- 1/2, J. Bouwmeester, D 2002- 1/3, Z. Bogosian, D 2008- 1/3, J. Johnson, D 2005- 1/3, A. Pietrangelo, D 2008- 1/4, A. Larsson, D 2011- 1/4, M. Rielly, D 2012- 1/5, O. Ekman-Larsson, D 2009- 1/6, H. Lindholm, D 2012- 1/6, R. Suter, D 2003- 1/7, R. Ristolainen, D 2013- 1/8, D. Phaneuf, D 2003- 1/9, T. Myers, D 2008- 1/12, D. Hamhuis, D 2001- 1/12, C. Fowler, D 2010- 1/12, R. McDonagh, D 2007- 1/12, R. Hainsey, D 2000- 1/13, B. Seabrook, D 2003- 1/14, D. Kulikov, D 2009- 1/14, E. Karlsson, D 2008- 1/15, N. Leddy, D 2009- 1/16, O. Klefbom, D 2011- 1/19, B. Burns, D 2003- 1/20, M. Del Zotto, D 2008- 1/20, O. Maatta, D 2012- 1/22, J. Carlson, D 2008- 1/27, M. Niskanen, D 2005- 1/28, N. Kronwall, D 2000- 1/29

30 players 2nd round+ or undrafted
J. Muzzin, J. Spurgeon, P. Subban, A. Markov, K. Letang, F. Beauchemin, T. Brodie, M. Giordano, D. Keith, R. Josi, S. Weber, M. Vlasic, D. Byfuglien, Z. Chara, T. Krug, A. Goligoski, D. Savard, A. Edler, J. Faulk, T. Hamonic, M. Streit, K. Russell, J. Klingberg, A. Stralman, M. Hunwick, D. DeKeyser, A. Greene, B. Campbell, D. Girardi, A. Sekera

It's actually kinda crazy how much better the 2nd round or later group is, lol. Even in the 1st round group, guys like Burns were fairly late picks.

 

[Raab]

an added note:
also of the 1st round players, 14 were top 10, and 16 were #11- 30

so the probability is that a team has a top pairing defense composed of one player chosen in the 1st round and one player a later pick or was undrafted. And the 1st round player is slightly less likely to have been a top 10 pick and slightly more likely to have been from #11- 30 pick

And if we split the first round and look at the top 15, it gives us 22 top pairing dmen. Leaving 8 dmen who were taken between 16-30. Of those 8 3 of them are suspect like Klefbom, MDZ, and N. Leddy. You may point out that Hainsey is in the top 15 which would be fair. My whole point is if you take a dman early in the draft, you have a far better chance of landing a top pairing guy over taking them in the 2nd or later rounds. The only way it would be statistically close is if you took a defenceman with every pick you had from rounds 2-7. Then you MIGHT luck into one that year, but even then it's no guarantee. And defenceman taken late usually have a longer development time then guys taken early.

 

[Bangers]

I'm afraid of drafting a French Canadian forward with 3 names from the Q who seems to be a good all-around player, yet lacks a definable quality...

 

[Fourier]

Does Edmonton's management group think that Dubois is a winger in the NHL?

Yes. I would say that is probably the opinion of a significant majority since he does not have a long record as a center and most hockey people are very conservative.