2016 Draft Thread | 7

[StIllmatic]

We should have taken a flyer on Tyler Soy last year.

This year we should REALLY draft him. The kids good, I had him going in the 2nd round last year.

Hmmm. Solid stats and 6 feet. I wonder why he didn't get picked last year.

 

[Zombotron]

We're bound to draft a defenseman in the second round, a Chibisov special in round 3 or round 4 (maybe Igor Korshkov**), and probably Rodrigo Abols after that.**

We have double 7ths - maybe they'll have the opportunity to use one on Soy

**Okay, spitballing.

 

[Yggdrasil]

What matthews did is pretty damn unreal too.

4th in goals despite only appearing in 72% of the games. 10th in points.

Sure, Laine has been fantastic in the playoffs.

But in terms of being the complete package Matthews takes the cake.


That being said, I wouldn't be that upset taking Laine first overall. As I said before I do not think the difference between Laine and Matthews is that great.

sounds like hes injury prone.

 

[clunk]

We should have taken a flyer on Tyler Soy last year.

This year we should REALLY draft him. The kids good, I had him going in the 2nd round last year.

Last I heard of him he's really lanky and gets knocked off the puck easily. Is this still true?

 

[WTG]

Last I heard of him he's really lanky and gets knocked off the puck easily. Is this still true?

He's pretty lanky, but lanky also means that there is room for him to grow physically.

And I do not think Tyler Soy is easily knocked off the puck. Not his strongest quality but certainly not bad.

 

[WTG]

sounds like hes injury prone.

Every player can get injuries.

 

[BerSTUzzi]

Chychrun supposedly dominant today. Player of the game for Canada. 1 goal and 2 assists.

Dmen are so hard to judge but games when Chychrun plays like this it hard not to see the transition to a #1. You have to wonder if he actually plays better in a pro game because a lot of his poor decision making is caring the puck too long. I don't find he makes as many mistakes when he makes a decision quickly or under pressure.

 

[GailWilliams]

We should have taken a flyer on Tyler Soy last year.

This year we should REALLY draft him. The kids good, I had him going in the 2nd round last year.

Agreed, it's crazy that both Soy and Hicketts wern't drafted in their respective draft years. Both have a pretty decent chance of beings NHLers imo

 

[polarbearcub]

Updated draft lottery sim

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/lottery.html

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

I haven't gotten in the top 3 in 30 attempts

 

[docbenton]

Dmen are so hard to judge but games when Chychrun plays like this it hard not to see the transition to a #1. You have to wonder if he actually plays better in a pro game because a lot of his poor decision making is caring the puck too long. I don't find he makes as many mistakes when he makes a decision quickly or under pressure.

He had a lot of chances but I still thought he wasn't that good, IMO. Some of those plays could have turned out badly for him; decision-making just not at a high enough level. It's like even Matt Bartkowski has an amazing game now and then. Chychrun is smarter than that and has superior skill, but you get the point. I think he's a top 10 pick but he's fallen from challenging Matthews last year for sure. Just hasn't really developed.

Juolevi is much smoother in comparison. I think smoothness is an important trait in defensemen, it shows they are playing well within their comfort zone, and thus likely have even more to offer.

 

[ahmon]

He had a lot of chances but I still thought he wasn't that good, IMO. Some of those plays could have turned out badly for him; decision-making just not at a high enough level. It's like even Matt Bartkowski has an amazing game now and then. Chychrun is smarter than that and has superior skill, but you get the point. I think he's a top 10 pick but he's fallen from challenging Matthews last year for sure. Just hasn't really developed.

Juolevi is much smoother in comparison. I think smoothness is an important trait in defensemen, it shows they are playing well within their comfort zone, and thus likely have even more to offer.

At this point I rather have Jost than Chychrun.

 

[McHortton]

Updated draft lottery sim

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/lottery.html

I think it's still flawed, I got "there is no winner with that combination" lol

 

[McHortton]

At this point I rather have Jost than Chychrun.

I rather have Dubois, Tkatchuk, Jost & Bean over Chychryn

 

[CloutierForVezina]

I think it's still flawed, I got "there is no winner with that combination" lol

That's supposed to happen - if Toronto wins the first draw, then wins the second draw, they'd just re-do the second draw until someone else wins. It may require an extra draw or two, but it's much simpler than trying to distribute the combinations that previously belonged to Toronto amongst all the remaining teams.

 

[McHortton]

That's supposed to happen - if Toronto wins the first draw, then wins the second draw, they'd just re-do the second draw until someone else wins. It may require an extra draw or two, but it's much simpler than trying to distribute the combinations that previously belonged to Toronto amongst all the remaining teams.

nvm, got it

 

[biturbo19]

Throwing out a preliminary top 30, but of course, subject to change up to the draft. Sat down a few days ago to put something to paper.
---
snip.

We clearly don't see some players the same at all, but funny enough this list actually looks pretty good to me overall. Actually pretty similar to what i'd started to cobble together pre-U18s.

Aside from some of the outliers that have been discussed...

I'm quite a bit lower on Keller, Rubtsov, and Dineen . As well as Puljujarvi to an extent (though i know i'm a real outlier with that).

Quite a bit higher on Juolevi obviously, as well as Bean.

Also higher on Gauthier, but i definitely see where you're coming from with having him quite low. He's not a guy i love either, and i'm probably still lower on him than most...but not like...30th low. He's got real consistency and intensity issues, kind of 1-dimensional, and i think a lot of people got overly caught up in his unsustainable goal totals early in the process. But he is still a big goal-scoring forward with speed, and pretty good touch around the net.

But on the whole, it's pretty surprisingly close to the ranges i have a lot of guys.

I still have some U18s games to catch up on before i go through and revise some things again...but even Jost being quite high on your list, i think seeing him continue to play his game at such a high level against this stiffer competition has really won me over. That performance will really shake up where i've had him ranked. Maybe not quite that high, but probably the biggest mover for me from the U18s - really answered my big question with his game.

 

[biturbo19]

I wouldn't have Fabbro over Juolevi, Juolevi looked as good at the U20s half a season ago, you can't forget that. I still think he is the smarter and quicker player. Fabbro probably does have a better shot but I have doubts about his quickness, both skating and decision making. He also gives up 2 inches to Juolevi and isn't very strong at all. I currently have Juolevi as the top defenseman, not so much because he's risen but because the other guys have incurred enough doubt for them to drop. There's also a natural grace to his play that is fun to watch.

Outside of just Juolevi's play with London (which i quite like), i think the bolded has faded from memory a bit. At the time, it was kind of extreme to the other direction, really just too much hype i thought. But he was the anchor of that Gold Medal blueline...as a draft eligible. The U20s as a whole, i don't generally put massive stock in if a draft eligible guy doesn't stand out...but Juolevi really did stand out, in a good way.

Something to at least keep in mind, when measuring up where these guys stand at the U18s.

Agreed. This is a pick that is made with post-draft development in mind. He has the personality that never relents. He will be a factor at the NHL level. If not right away, eventually.

I see a top6 C as well, and I know what you are talking about with regards to his play: He really should have more points based on his play. I don't understand it myself. The kid does everything.

I've heard Vermette comparisons - which if taken statistically, still results in a 2C. Obviously, I think he has higher upside.

Vermette comparison is kind of an unusual one for McLeod. I think McLeod being the bigger, more relentless, aggressive player really separates them. If anything, i could see a comp to another ex-Senator back in the day, Mike Fisher being more fitting for McLeod and the way he plays.

McLeod is definitely a "projection pick" though, in any event. Really banking on that toolset translating to a highly valuable Pro. And the continued development of the offensive skillset, hoping his hands really do catch up to his feet eventually.

Haven't really liked his game at the U18s though, with a lot of lesser-skilled linemates - which is a bit concerning for me. Still flashes of his "upside" there though.

Bean is where I think our opinions diverge. I often considered ranking him as the #2 Dman, right behind Chychrun. His offensive skillset, less his skating, is high end. The concern is that he tops out as only a top4 Dman due to his defensive positioning and lack of strength. High risk, potentially very high reward. He was definitely a factor for his team (3rd leading scorer) as well.

I think a lot of the divergence on Bean just comes down to how people value what he projects as. Whether that's looking at him as, "just a 2nd pairing offensive D", or more as, "a big minutes offensive catalyst from the blueline".

I think it's unlikely that Bean ever really develops into the type of all-around stud you necessarily want to hard match against opposing top players in a "shutdown role" like you would a conventional #1D. But he's the type of offensive catalyst with plenty of all-around upside i could absolutely see being like Ehrhoff was for the Canucks back in the golden age, or like the Letang/Klingberg/Barrie type defencemen where they can be your top minute defenceman on any given night, despite not really fitting the profile of that "True #1D" or playing the toughest minutes. Guys you want on the ice like a #1D because they're pushing offense when they're out there. But the type of Defenceman you match more with your #1 Forward Line, than against the opponents #1 Line.

Bean's skating is not explosive (acceleration) nor is it very fast at top speed. Agility is good. He can change direction pretty well in tight quarters, like the PP. To me, it's strength related. He would be faster with power in his legs. It's not his technique.

This is why i'm not overly concerned with Bean's skating. To me, it looks like a lack of strength+power more than anything else. And it's no great secret that he's got a lot of pumping iron and adding muscle to his wiry frame to do.

The other thing with Bean that i think may contribute to this perception of his skating as an issue, is that he's a very cerebral player...doesn't always play balls to the wall, not always moving ahead at full speed. Even lugging the puck out of his own zone, he'll intentionally lag a bit to build a cushion and dissect whatever seams open up to move the puck as opposing players retreat. Whereas Sergachev and Chychrun tend to just bomb headlong through an opening if they see one, Bean tends to look a lot more casual and a lot "slower". He isn't the same calibre skater as those two obviously, but he plays to that as well.

It's something in his game that reminds me a lot of the way Ehrhoff used to operate. Keeping the game in front of him more - was a good skater, but still never the most absolutely blazing skater, but was very adept at slicing through the neutral zone in different ways anyway, picking things apart.

I'll admit I've not been overly impressed witb Sergachev and Chychrun at the u18s. I think that could and should hurt them. Jost has helped himself and Fabbro has come exactly as advertised. Keller has as well. Neither of those two moves much in my opinion. I have real concerns about Keller's size and ability to translate that into NHL production but if the desire is there to learn, the skill will take over as it has for Fabbri and as I am certain it will for Marner. Where we are likely to pick at 5, it's really between PLD and Tkachuk.

New top 20 (BPA)

Laine
Matthews
Puljujarvi
PLD
Tkachuk
Bean
Chychrun
Nylander
Juolevi
Jost
Sergachev
Brown
MacLeod
Keller
Fabbro
McAvoy
Clague
Bellows
Hart
Mascherin

HM: Kunin

Quite like a lot of this list. Interesting throwing a goaltender into the mix that high. Can't say i'd do the same, but it's tough to slot goaltenders in - it's just such a completely unique position.

Button was on the radio today with Sekeres and Price and it's a good listen

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-1...y-taking-a-defenceman-fourth-overall-1.476628

He basically had this as his top 10 groupings

Mathews/Laine/Puljujarvi
Tkachuk/Dubois/Keller/Brown/Nylander
Jost

Sergachev/Juolevi

-No defense really close to the group of forwards ahead of them.
-High on Brown and Keller.
-Keller will be in the top 20 nhl scoring regularly. Elite skating, vision, passing and creativity.
-Brown just keeps improving and has high potential. Could see him at 4
-Sergachev and Juolevi top D
-Bean, Fabrro ahead of Chychrun
-Boeser and Demko elite

The bolded comment from Button is certainly bold. That's an absolute Superstar player, indisputable #1C. If Keller really is going to be a regular fixture in the top-20 scoring in the NHL.

I have a really hard time seeing it. He's got tremendous vision and skill, oozes creativity. But with his size and style of play, i think he just projects as the type of player who struggles to really break through with that same level of creativity in the NHL. There are just too many teams with big smothering guys who can skate, and rigid stifling defensive systems that will take time and space away from Keller much more consistently. And for me, Keller projects as the type of player who i find most susceptible to being neutralized by those "heavy" and "defensive" elements of today's NHL game.

I can certainly see what people love about him, and what might spur someone to suggest something like that...but i'm not buying.

It bothers me that they list Bean as a RHD.

He's not a Right hand Shooting defenceman...but i don't have a real problem with listing him as a Right Side defenceman.

Knew about Virtanen, didn't know Boeser played left side as well. As much as I like Laine better, if we miss out on Matthews, Puljujarvi would fit this group better, we have some shooters in Virtanen and Boeser, we could use a big play maker that can set Virtanen or Boeser up.

Would you really describe Puljujarvi as a "playmaker" though? I can't say i would.

If draisatl and monahan were in this draft, where would you rank them in top 6 just base on their hype and plays/stats before joining the nhl?

For me, Draisaitl would slot in just ahead of Dubois, right on Laine's heels. So a very close 3rd...projecting as a Center, against Laine and Dubois as wingers would make it an awfully tough decision for me. But then, i had Draisaitl at #1 in his draft year.

Monahan, it's tougher to filter through the hindsight there for me when contrasting with this year's crop...but i'd venture probably right in the mix with Tkachuk putting him at 5th or 6th, again playing Center maybe shuffling him just narrowly ahead. He's such a tough one to place though, without hindsight creeping in a bit.

Dmen are so hard to judge but games when Chychrun plays like this it hard not to see the transition to a #1. You have to wonder if he actually plays better in a pro game because a lot of his poor decision making is caring the puck too long. I don't find he makes as many mistakes when he makes a decision quickly or under pressure.

An interesting thought. I can see how a more precisely orchestrated system and less room for "freelancing" might help Chychrun avoid some of where his issues pop up. But at the same time, a lot of the best and most dynamic work Chychrun does is when he's pushing up and roaming a bit.

And ultimately, as refined as NHL systems are...there are still always breakdowns. And those breakdowns are where the instincts shine through most of all. Which is where i still have that nagging concern about Chychrun. Those "ooops" moments. Still really like his upside, but grappling with those issues...just hard not to slide forwards ahead of him with some more confident projections. Even looking at Juolevi and his "safer" game gives me a bit of pause.

 

[The Drop]

Updated draft lottery sim

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/lottery.html

I actually got a result of Vancouver - Edmonton - Toronto

 

[CP]

Three surprises I predict with my swami hat on:
Chychrun falls out of the top ten
Laine taken first overall
Brown cracks top ten

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Chychrun is this years Cam Fowler. He's been microscoped and hyped for so long, he's actually being over criticised now.

Watch probably as soon a next season, like Fowler, people will be saying how the heck did this guy fall to 11th?

 

[StIllmatic]

Please stop posting simulator results. We all know the odds. It's extremely annoying having to filter through these posts.

 

[Icebreakers]

Chychrun is this years Cam Fowler. He's been microscoped and hyped for so long, he's actually being over criticised now.

Watch probably as soon a next season, like Fowler, people will be saying how the heck did this guy fall to 11th?

Cam Fowler did not fall in the rankings. He fell on draft day. He was consensus 5 on TSN's list on draft day.

 

[Rick Rocket]

Last I heard of him he's really lanky and gets knocked off the puck easily. Is this still true?

Soy looks good, I've been questioning why the Canucks haven't taken a good look at this kid.

He has puck skills and a good shot. He also tries his ass off and looks dangerous almost every shift. Kid has wheels. Why wouldn't he fill out?

besides, look at my avatar.

 

[WTG]

Soy looks good, I've been questioning why the Canucks haven't taken a good look at this kid.

He has puck skills and a good shot. He also tries his ass off and looks dangerous almost every shift. Kid has wheels. Why wouldn't he fill out?

besides, look at my avatar.

Not going to lie I spit out my coffee looking at your avatar 10/10

Soy Sauce

Yeah, I was hoping he would sign with us after the draft but he went to the Edmonton (?) training camp. I was very surprised he wasn't signed their either.

I would be willing to draft him with a 4th.