2015-2016 Roster Talk: East Coast Thinks We Suck Edition(MOD WARNING) post# 107

[KINGS17]

Exactly. I see Dean moving any combination of the three (including all of them) to clear CAP space for Lucic.

Clifford: $1.6M

Nolan: $950,000

Lewis: $1.525

These total roughly $4M. Lucic's cap hit is currently $3M. If the cap does not go up, which is possible, and Lucic gets $7M (why would he take much less), where do we get replacements for Clifford, Nolan, and especially Lewis for basically $0?

This is the wrath of the Kopitar $10M deal, but hey give the man his money, right?

There is no Lucic beyond this season.

 

[guderian]

Clifford: $1.6M

Nolan: $950,000

Lewis: $1.525

These total roughly $4M. Lucic's cap hit is currently $3M. If the cap does not go up, which is possible, and Lucic gets $7M (why would he take much less), where do we get replacements for Clifford, Nolan, and especially Lewis for basically $0?

This is the wrath of the Kopitar $10M deal, but hey give the man his money, right?

There is no Lucic beyond this season.

Richards cap penalty goes down from $3,1M to $1,5M.
With Lucic @$7M that leaves around $1,8M. It's not much.

 

[guderian]

Regarding Lucic, Kings could opt to give him maximum term, 8 years, with lower avg.
6,5 x 8 is almost equal to 7,5 x 7 in total money.

 

[KINGS17]

Richards cap penalty goes down from $3,1M to $1,5M.
With Lucic @$7M that leaves around $1,8M. It's not much.

Thanks, that's true. So that's 600K for each of three replacements, and Dean needs to sign Toffoli the season after next. Still no Lucic unless Brown can be moved.

What's the cost of moving Brown?

 

[gnarls barkley]

i don't think we are keeping Lucic regardless, but i also don't think we are moving Brown any time soon. My gut says Dean moves out some depth (not including Brown) and makes a smaller move or signing so that we aren't riding with a bottom six of majority rookies/sophs. Think like a vet 3C @ 4M or something, leave some space for Toffoli contract etc. going forwards.

 

[regulate]

If the CAP doesn't go up (and with the Canadian dollar crises that is a possibility), then you have roughly 9.3 millions dollars to sign 7 roster spots next year. Lucic is a pipe dream that cannot happen if all of the current roster players that are signed for next season are still on the team. Brown is reported to have some type of NMC, maybe limited, of which I'm not sure any of us know the details, so it's possible he could not be moved, even if DL was willing. The stark reality is Lucic is going to be almost impossible to re-sign with Brown on the roster.

 

[gnarls barkley]

Lucic fitting in with the guys has been a great story and a huge boon to a fractured locker room from last season, but honestly...everyone had to know going into that deal what the Kings' cap situation looked like. That was the hail mary after last year's debacle. This is the last great shot at another cup before we have to pony up the big dollars for guys like Kopitar & Toffoli and begin the slow downward trend. I'll be sad to see Lucic go - I think he's quickly become a fan favorite, and I see why Boston loved him - but unless Dean pulls some absolute wizardry in the offseason, there's not a chance in hell he returns in the black and silver.

 

[Buddy The Elf]

^ Agreed - I think the only change the Kings have at re-signing him is if Dustin Brown is kicked to the curb and I just don't see that happening.

If Schenn continues to play relatively well, he is going to be a priority real soon.

 

[BamBam1031]

Lucic fitting in with the guys has been a great story and a huge boon to a fractured locker room from last season, but honestly...everyone had to know going into that deal what the Kings' cap situation looked like. That was the hail mary after last year's debacle. This is the last great shot at another cup before we have to pony up the big dollars for guys like Kopitar & Toffoli and begin the slow downward trend. I'll be sad to see Lucic go - I think he's quickly become a fan favorite, and I see why Boston loved him - but unless Dean pulls some absolute wizardry in the offseason, there's not a chance in hell he returns in the black and silver.

Sadly, I agree. If people are complaining about the financial ramifications of Kopitar's deal, imagine being handcuffed by a 7x7 for Lucic.

 

[KINGS17]

Lucic fitting in with the guys has been a great story and a huge boon to a fractured locker room from last season, but honestly...everyone had to know going into that deal what the Kings' cap situation looked like. That was the hail mary after last year's debacle. This is the last great shot at another cup before we have to pony up the big dollars for guys like Kopitar & Toffoli and begin the slow downward trend. I'll be sad to see Lucic go - I think he's quickly become a fan favorite, and I see why Boston loved him - but unless Dean pulls some absolute wizardry in the offseason, there's not a chance in hell he returns in the black and silver.

But wait, I thought we had to give Kopitar his $10M so the Kings could still be contenders.

As I have said before, the economic realities of the salary cap don't support a $10M AAV contract for any one player. The Kane and Toews contracts are going to be a disaster for Chicago, because they were based on the idea that the cap would be approximately $80M next season. The Blackhawk fan base is already discussing players they are going to have to cut loose in the off season after having them for only one season.

 

[KingsFan7824]

But wait, I thought we had to give Kopitar his $10M so the Kings could still be contenders.

As I have said before, the economic realities of the salary cap don't support a $10M AAV contract for any one player. The Kane and Toews contracts are going to be a disaster for Chicago, because they were based on the idea that the cap would be approximately $80M last season. The Blackhawk fan base is already discussing players they are going to have to cut loose in the off season after having them for only one season.

Would they take those guys back but lose either Kane or Toews? Both? I don't know if any GM's would voluntarily lose Kane, Toews, Kopitar, etc. They may be forced, but if they have the room, they'll keep them. The Kings have room for Kopitar. They'll lose other guys, but that's how it goes.

We can't know the future. Lombardi might be able to keep Kopitar, Lucic, and Toffoli. Who he would have to get rid of, what he would get back, etc, we just can't know. We can speculate all day, but who had Lombardi even getting Lucic in the first place? Who would've said Boston would be willing to retain 50% of the salary? GM's can make things happen when they want to. They just have to get more and more creative the less space they have to work with. Eventually that runs out, but that's the cycle of sports.

 

[Trolfoli]

The only problem with letting Lucic walk is that the Kings will need another effective top 6 winger to replace him.

I doubt Lombardi wants to move Brown, but Brown is playing himself off the team.

 

[Johnny Utah]

Brown is gone. Even the Mayor did a piece recently where he speculated as such as said Kopitar will probably wear the C.

The other name being called out is Martinez and his 4 million.

That would leave the Kings with Doughty, Muzzin, McNabb, Greene, Forbort and the possibility of re signing Schenn. That would put the Kings back to the time where they had one puck mover with one stay at home guy.

Doughty-McNabb
Muzzin-Schenn
Greene-Forbort

Or some variation of that. You lock Schenn in at a discount, Forbort is waiver eligible.

 

[cyclones22]

This is the price of admission for staying in the hunt for clubs that have won multiple times and wish to try for more. If you want out of the club, then don't sign Kopitar, simple as that and enjoy those championship blu-rays we all have. The stark reality is that if Dean doesn't re-sign Kopitar and they never win it with this group again, there will be second guessing for a long time for the Kings leaving potential championship opportunities on the table by not retaining him. If they re-sign Kopitar and this core never wins again, which is possible, there won't be anywhere near the backlash and second guessing. My stance? Sign him and whatever happens, happens. He's one of the 3 pillars of this franchise and all 3 are still bringing it. Let all those other teams who haven't won recently worry about where they are 2 to 3 seasons from now with unproven cores. This is the golden age of Kings hockey. Don't cut it short by trying to outsmart yourself.

 

[gnarls barkley]

Brown is gone. Even the Mayor did a piece recently where he speculated as such as said Kopitar will probably wear the C.

The other name being called out is Martinez and his 4 million.

That would leave the Kings with Doughty, Muzzin, McNabb, Greene, Forbort and the possibility of re signing Schenn. That would put the Kings back to the time where they had one puck mover with one stay at home guy.

Doughty-McNabb
Muzzin-Schenn
Greene-Forbort

Or some variation of that. You lock Schenn in at a discount, Forbort is waiver eligible.

trading AMart would be a really dumb move unless you get a similar on ice value-to-contract guy back in return.

AMart was admittedly a relatively poor value on the 3rd pairing, but he's playing up to his contract on the 2nd pairing now, and tell me where you're gonna find a D of that caliber for under 5M nowadays. I could see him being moved a few years down the line if his play deteriorates, but now? I don't think it's smart to move one of the few cost-effective contracts we have.

 

[KINGS17]

Would they take those guys back but lose either Kane or Toews? Both? I don't know if any GM's would voluntarily lose Kane, Toews, Kopitar, etc. They may be forced, but if they have the room, they'll keep them. The Kings have room for Kopitar. They'll lose other guys, but that's how it goes.

We can't know the future. Lombardi might be able to keep Kopitar, Lucic, and Toffoli. Who he would have to get rid of, what he would get back, etc, we just can't know. We can speculate all day, but who had Lombardi even getting Lucic in the first place? Who would've said Boston would be willing to retain 50% of the salary? GM's can make things happen when they want to. They just have to get more and more creative the less space they have to work with. Eventually that runs out, but that's the cycle of sports.

This is a false choice. At the time those deals were signed Bowman thought he would be working with a cap of $80M to sign his supporting cast. The question you should be asking is, if Bowman knew then what he knows about the cap today, would he give Kane and Toews deals with $10.5M AAVs?

Next question is can any team win a cup without an adequate supporting cast?

What is the point of signing these guys to these high-AAV deals, if the team is not competing for Stanley Cups?

 

[KINGS17]

Brown is gone. Even the Mayor did a piece recently where he speculated as such as said Kopitar will probably wear the C.

The other name being called out is Martinez and his 4 million.

That would leave the Kings with Doughty, Muzzin, McNabb, Greene, Forbort and the possibility of re signing Schenn. That would put the Kings back to the time where they had one puck mover with one stay at home guy.

Doughty-McNabb
Muzzin-Schenn
Greene-Forbort

Or some variation of that. You lock Schenn in at a discount, Forbort is waiver eligible.

Again, how? Who wants him with that contract? Salary retention will not be an optiion for Dean.

 

[gnarls barkley]

This is a false choice. At the time those deals were signed Bowman thought he would be working with a cap of $80M to sign his supporting cast. The question you should be asking is, if Bowman knew then what he knows about the cap today, would he give Kane and Toews deals with $10.5M AAVs?

Next question is can any team win a cup without an adequate supporting cast?

What is the point of signing these guys to these high-AAV deals, if the team is not competing for Stanley Cups?

no, but that's a moot point because he DID give them those deals, which set precedent for future contracts

regardless of how dumb it is to hand out a contract of that size when we now know about the cap situation, the Kings have practically zero bargaining power here. The cap and roster isn't Kopitar's problem, or his agent's problem, so they're still going to ask for a comparable...which is Toews. It's an unfortunate situation that spiraled out of control with those Toews/Kane contracts, so teams like us going forward are really put between a rock and a hard place.

 

[KINGS17]

no, but that's a moot point because he DID give them those deals, which set precedent for future contracts

regardless of how dumb it is to hand out a contract of that size when we now know about the cap situation, the Kings have practically zero bargaining power here. The cap and roster isn't Kopitar's problem, or his agent's problem, so they're still going to ask for a comparable...which is Toews. It's an unfortunate situation that spiraled out of control with those Toews/Kane contracts, so teams like us going forward are really put between a rock and a hard place.

It's not a moot point, becasue Dean went in with his eyes wide open regarding the league-wide issue concerning the salary cap and the lack of growth it will experience.

With that knowledge, Dean probably tried to insist that the Toews contract not be used as a comp in any way. However, Kopitar and Brission having all the leverage bent him over the table any way, not caring about the resulting damage and how it would hamper Dean's ability to provide an adequate supporting cast to win cups.

Again, what is the point of a $10M contract for any player, if it doesn't lead to winning cups? Might as well call "game over" and get on with the rebuild. Sorry, but insisting on money comparable to Toews, when you know damn well that deal was signed using assumptions about cap growth that will not come to pass, puts the burden on Kopitar now to perform consistently at a level that he has only shown the ability to do in spurts.

This is Kopitar's problem, because now this is his team, and if he doesn't deliver...well.

 

[gnarls barkley]

It's not a moot point, becasue Dean went in with his eyes wide open regarding the league-wide issue concerning the salary cap and the lack of growth it will experience.

With that knowledge, Dean probably tried to insist that the Toews contract not be used as a comp in any way. However, Kopitar and Brission having all the leverage bent him over the table any way, not caring about the resulting damage and how it would hamper Dean's ability to provide an adequate supporting cast to win cups.

Again, what is the point of a $10M contract for any player, if it doesn't lead to winning cups? Might as well call "game over" and get on with the rebuild. Sorry, but insisting on money comparable to Toews, when you know damn well that deal was signed using assumptions about cap growth that will not come to pass, puts the burden on Kopitar now to perform consistently at a level that he has only shown the ability to do in spurts.

This is Kopitar's problem, because now this is his team, and if he doesn't deliver...well.

well, what are you gonna do? Hands tied, you can't let Kopitar walk, it's not like we have a McDavid waiting in the wings.

 

[KingsFan7824]

This is a false choice. At the time those deals were signed Bowman thought he would be working with a cap of $80M to sign his supporting cast. The question you should be asking is, if Bowman knew then what he knows about the cap today, would he give Kane and Toews deals with $10.5M AAVs?

I don't think anyone that isn't Stan Bowman can know the answer to that. My guess is he would've done what he needed to do in order to keep Kane and Toews, but that's just a guess.

Next question is can any team win a cup without an adequate supporting cast?

No. However, there are many variables to that. If in theory Kopitar can be replaced by someone cheaper, so can anyone in the supporting cast. It's all a matter of finding an adequate replacement. Then it's a question of who is easier to replace for X amount of money.

What is the point of signing these guys to these high-AAV deals, if the team is not competing for Stanley Cups?

My read on it would be that you hope those top guys keep playing well and producing, and fill in the gaps with what you can get. Cheaper free agents, prospects, etc. If all the big money guys go down the drain, that's just how it goes.

Either way you go, it's not likely it's ever going to be this good for the Kings again. At least not for a decade or two anyway. Regardless of who the GM is, who the coach is, what players are on the team, etc. Lombardi has a choice to make. Do you keep the core around as long as possible, and try to work around that? Or, do you cycle through the core as they get more expensive? Both roads have risk involved. Both roads involve difficult choices being made.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

The Kings may opt to package Pearson along with Brown in order to shed some contracts and also to make room to retain better players and to fit in some young prospects like Kempe (who I think has the potential to be better than Pearson).

If Dean is able to accomplish this, say he moves Pearson and Brown to a team in the east for draft picks/young assets, he would be able to re-sign Lucic and give Toffoli the lucrative deal that he will be due to get next summer. It also gives them room to retain others like Luke Schenn or Trevor Lewis.

 

[Reclamation Project]

It's not a moot point, becasue Dean went in with his eyes wide open regarding the league-wide issue concerning the salary cap and the lack of growth it will experience.

With that knowledge, Dean probably tried to insist that the Toews contract not be used as a comp in any way. However, Kopitar and Brission having all the leverage bent him over the table any way, not caring about the resulting damage and how it would hamper Dean's ability to provide an adequate supporting cast to win cups.

Again, what is the point of a $10M contract for any player, if it doesn't lead to winning cups? Might as well call "game over" and get on with the rebuild. Sorry, but insisting on money comparable to Toews, when you know damn well that deal was signed using assumptions about cap growth that will not come to pass, puts the burden on Kopitar now to perform consistently at a level that he has only shown the ability to do in spurts.

This is Kopitar's problem, because now this is his team, and if he doesn't deliver...well.

I agree with you 100%, but there is no sense even debating it. The framework is (apparently) done. Dean will most likely get no concessions and that sets an ugly precedent.

I know Bowman will be widely regarded for signing Kane and Toews long term, but giving out two massive contracts on an assumption is a lousy way of doing business.

Nothing we can do. I just hope the Kings can have big contributions from some of the kids in Ontario.

I don't think it's game over, but it'll definitely hamper depth. Dean had zero leverage and Kopitar and his agent knew that. Kopitar and his agent don't care about maintaining a winner. They want the most they can get. That's just the way it is whether we as fans like it or not. People saying he took a discount over the open market are also wrong. They aren't comparable scenarios.

Kopitar will talk about "staying in LA and continuing great things" and I'm sure he means it to a degree, but his agent only has one goal - maximize his clients earnings.

Another thing to take into consideration is Kopitar living in CA. I wouldn't give one discount to any CA team. Maybe in a state like Texas, Florida, or Tennessee, but not in CA.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I trust DL's voodoo in coming up with a plan beyond the next year or two.

This is the price of admission for staying in the hunt for clubs that have won multiple times and wish to try for more. If you want out of the club, then don't sign Kopitar, simple as that and enjoy those championship blu-rays we all have. The stark reality is that if Dean doesn't re-sign Kopitar and they never win it with this group again, there will be second guessing for a long time for the Kings leaving potential championship opportunities on the table by not retaining him. If they re-sign Kopitar and this core never wins again, which is possible, there won't be anywhere near the backlash and second guessing. My stance? Sign him and whatever happens, happens. He's one of the 3 pillars of this franchise and all 3 are still bringing it. Let all those other teams who haven't won recently worry about where they are 2 to 3 seasons from now with unproven cores. This is the golden age of Kings hockey. Don't cut it short by trying to outsmart yourself.

But this is it to me exactly. You have a veteran, successful team--they'll be UFA age and you lose cost control. It is what it is, we paid the price to compete for another two years. The alternative is start tearing it down now while some guys still have value and get a crapton of picks and start over early.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Jan Hejda is said to be signing with an NHL team soon. He had been playing in the AHL this season, appeared in 81 games last season with the Avs and tends to be among the league leaders in shot blocking.

I think I would consider him to be a better 3rd pairing option than Errorhoff.