Speculation: 2014 - 2015 New York Rangers :: Roster building / proposal thread Part II

[bernmeister]

Bern, he could never become another Drury making 6.2 or whatever when the cap is 69-80m. Drurys portion of the cap equals to like 10-11m per today.

Ola, you might be right as to it being a problem to a lesser degree.
But it is still a problem.
If a guy is suddenly substantially less productive, but not enough to make the LTIR or immediate retire lists, you are carrying the whole weight of that guys salary for a fraction of the results.

If that player is Lombardi at 800k, it doesn't help, but THAT is small potatoes.
But if it is a big number guy like Nash or Thonrton we'd be screwed.

 

[Infinitum Vitae*]

What's a bit troubling (at least to me) is that in order to accommodate cap beyond next year I don't see a scenario where the Rangers would not a step back in some important position (1C - 3C, top 4D) or the overall depth.

That's why we have to win it all this year

 

[SA16]

FORWARDS
Chris Kreider ($2.475m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Lee Stempniak ($0.900m) / Derick Brassard ($5.000m) / Mats Zuccarello ($3.500m)
Carl Hagelin ($2.250m) / J.T. Miller ($0.894m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Tanner Glass ($1.450m) / Dominic Moore ($1.500m) / Matthew Lombardi ($0.800m)
Chris Mueller ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Dan Girardi ($5.500m) / Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m)
Dan Boyle ($4.500m) / Marc Staal ($3.975m)
Kevin Klein ($2.900m) / John Moore ($0.851m)
Matt Hunwick ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)
BUYOUTS
Wade Redden ($0.000m)
Brad Richards ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,957,167; BONUSES: $350,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $1,042,833

Looks to be what we are looking at

 

[MetalGodAOD*]

How on earth do they expect to make any upgrades in 2015-2016? Any cap increase will be offset by Zucc, Hagelin, and Stepan's raises. MSL might re-sign for cheaper but not that much cheaper.

Gotta think Staal is gone, there's no way they can afford to give him a UFA contract.

 

[silverfish]

How on earth do they expect to make any upgrades in 2015-2016? Any cap increase will be offset by Zucc, Hagelin, and Stepan's raises. MSL might re-sign for cheaper but not that much cheaper.

Gotta think Staal is gone, there's no way they can afford to give him a UFA contract.

Think Nash is gone next off-season. Similar to the deal we got him for. Quality for quantity..

*This is only if he doesn't go 40-40 this season and produce at a .8 or better point-per-game clip during the playoffs while leading the Rangers to the cup*

If we lose Staal we're in trouble until Moore, Allen, or Skjei can prove to handle 2LD minutes.

(duh)

 

[LiveLongandProspal]

So how do we free up some cap space (besides trading Nash )?

 

[SupersonicMonkey*]

FORWARDS
Chris Kreider ($2.475m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Lee Stempniak ($0.900m) / Derick Brassard ($5.000m) / Mats Zuccarello ($3.500m)
Carl Hagelin ($2.250m) / J.T. Miller ($0.894m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Tanner Glass ($1.450m) / Dominic Moore ($1.500m) / Matthew Lombardi ($0.800m)
Chris Mueller ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Dan Girardi ($5.500m) / Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m)
Dan Boyle ($4.500m) / Marc Staal ($3.975m)
Kevin Klein ($2.900m) / John Moore ($0.851m)
Matt Hunwick ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)
BUYOUTS
Wade Redden ($0.000m)
Brad Richards ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,957,167; BONUSES: $350,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $1,042,833

Looks to be what we are looking at

Swap Hunwick with Kostka and thats the roster.

 

[Don Chytil]

So how do we free up some cap space (besides trading Nash )?

I think it's possible to get everyone signed and still keep the core in tact. We also don't know if MSL plans to play past this year, or if he intends to sign elsewhere, or perhaps take a discount to stay with the Rangers. That will be a big factor. But otherwise we can still fit under the cap given the following moves:

Cap goes up by $5m - $74m is not unreasonable given projections
Stepan gets a raise of ($3m)
Hagelin gets a raise of ($2m)
Zucc gets a raise of ($2m)
Staal gets a raise of ($2m)
Trade Klein and replace him with Allen or McIlrath - net gain of $2m cap space
MSL resigns for $1m less - this would be a contract of about $4.5/yr, not unreasonable given his age

All of this would result in a net impact of ($1m) to our cap space. Not unreasonable to think that we could fit it in and make it happen. It would be extremely tight though even with trading Klein, but not impossible as some posters are implying.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Staal will be one of the casualties, or they may trade Klein.

 

[Zil]

Staal will be one of the casualties, or they may trade Klein.

The correct answer is both of them. McIlrath has to overtake Klein at some point this season. Allen has to overtake Moore. Skjei will slot in for 2015-16. Our defense should convert to this in a year:

McDonagh-Girardi
Skjei-Boyle
Allen-McIlrath

 

[Leetch3]

Great discussion here. If someone else (Boyle?) covers Richards' PP points and Brassard/Lombardi make up Richards' ES points they should be good. It will be interesting to see it play out.

thats probably the best way to look at it...you aren't looking to replace richard's 51 points. you are looking for boyle to replace his 19 points on the PP. boyle had 18 points on the pp last year so very doable...

and then you need someone to replace his 32 points at even strength...thats a much more reasonable target for the new 3rd line center and i think Miller should be able to come close to that...

plus you expect/hope for increases from stepan and brassard

looking at it this way we aren't as bad off compared to last year as it initially seems down the middle

 

[SupersonicMonkey*]

The correct answer is both of them. McIlrath has to overtake Klein at some point this season. Allen has to overtake Moore. Skjei will slot in for 2015-16. Our defense should convert to this in a year:

McDonagh-Girardi
Skjei-Boyle
Allen-McIlrath

John Moore is 23 years old and is a proven NHL player that the coaching staff loves, they trusted him and he played well in a deep playoff run. Allen is older than Moore and has zero NHL experience.

Why does Allen need to overtake Moore? As if Moore's age+contract is an issue. He is an elite skater, and has a lot of potential as he matures as a player. Clearly his growing pains haven't been a detriment.

Allen's best hope for a future with the Rangers is if there is an injury to one of McDonagh, Staal, or Moore. Staal probably won't be traded if they are in the middle of a playoff push. And next summer Skjei will be coming to New York.

Allen turns 25 in January. No NHL experience. He is blocked here.

Staal will be a UFA, will command 6+ million, has a long list of serious head injuries. He should be the one to replace once he is gone.

 

[Zuccarello Awesome*]

John Moore is 23 years old and is a proven NHL player that the coaching staff loves, they trusted him and he played well in a deep playoff run. Allen is older than Moore and has zero NHL experience.

Why does Allen need to overtake Moore? As if Moore's age+contract is an issue. He is an elite skater, and has a lot of potential as he matures as a player. Clearly his growing pains haven't been a detriment.

Allen's best hope for a future with the Rangers is if there is an injury to one of McDonagh, Staal, or Moore. Staal probably won't be traded if they are in the middle of a playoff push. And next summer Skjei will be coming to New York.

Allen turns 25 in January. No NHL experience. He is blocked here.

Staal will be a UFA, will command 6+ million, has a long list of serious head injuries. He should be the one to replace once he is gone.

It's highly unlikely that Skjei will be in NY next season. He's never played against anyone over the age of 24. He's likely going to need at least a full season in the AHL. The NCAA is far from the NHL, and Skjei isn't even a top-10 defenseman in the NCAA, so there's no reason to think he can make the jump. Its hard for any NCAA player to jump straight to the NHL; it's even harder for a defenseman to do it. Temper your expectations with a dose of reality. Skjei is a very attractive prospect with very good potential. He shouldn't and won't be rushed.

 

[SupersonicMonkey*]

It's highly unlikely that Skjei will be in NY next season. He's never played against anyone over the age of 24. He's likely going to need at least a full season in the AHL. The NCAA is far from the NHL, and Skjei isn't even a top-10 defenseman in the NCAA, so there's no reason to think he can make the jump. Its hard for any NCAA player to jump straight to the NHL; it's even harder for a defenseman to do it. Temper your expectations with a dose of reality. Skjei is a very attractive prospect with very good potential. He shouldn't and won't be rushed.

"Not a top 10 defenseman in the NCAA". Skjei is absolutely one of the top shut-down defensemen in the NCAA. He has played that role against the best of his peers in his league and on the international stage, and thrives.

I understand that stopping opponents from scoring isn't something that shows up in a box score, but people who watch him play on a regular basis will tell you that you are wrong.

Brady Skjei will sign an ELC when his NCAA season ends, thats not a proclamation based on nothing, thats a fact, and at that point he will be in New York for training camp after the summer. So, yes, he WILL be in New York, and he WILL be competing for a spot assuming Marc Staal is no longer a Ranger at that time.

My point still stands, Conor Allen is turning 25 and has no shot an an NHL spot with the Rangers this season unless John Moore falls flat on his face (highly unlikely) or there is an injury. And if there is an injury, he better play flawlessly in his own end, otherwise he will be back in Hartford when injuries are not an issue.

Skjei's future employers feel he is ready. He wanted to work on his offensive game and get physically stronger, thats why he went back to Minnesota. It worked out fine for Kreider, McDonagh, and Hagelin.

The post you quoted was about Conor Allen taking John Moore's place. If it were going to happen, it would have.

 

[GraveyTrain9]

we are significantly weaker as a group than we were in 13-14. I think that is a given and it makes me think that the plan is to do major re-tooling at the trade deadline.

 

[Zil]

John Moore is 23 years old and is a proven NHL player that the coaching staff loves, they trusted him and he played well in a deep playoff run. Allen is older than Moore and has zero NHL experience.

Why does Allen need to overtake Moore? As if Moore's age+contract is an issue. He is an elite skater, and has a lot of potential as he matures as a player. Clearly his growing pains haven't been a detriment.

Allen's best hope for a future with the Rangers is if there is an injury to one of McDonagh, Staal, or Moore. Staal probably won't be traded if they are in the middle of a playoff push. And next summer Skjei will be coming to New York.

Allen turns 25 in January. No NHL experience. He is blocked here.

Staal will be a UFA, will command 6+ million, has a long list of serious head injuries. He should be the one to replace once he is gone.

Moore has more NHL experience but the only thing he's proven in that time is that he doesn't really know what he's doing out on the ice. Allen plays a smoother and steadier game. I like his odds to grab the third pairing spot this year.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

we are significantly weaker as a group than we were in 13-14. I think that is a given and it makes me think that the plan is to do major re-tooling at the trade deadline.

not sure how we are significantly weaker... other than center..

Boyle is not any worse than Stralman, for what Stralman brought defensively, Boyle will make up for it with his offense, and should be a BIG time upgrade on the PP paired with Mcdonagh.

Stempniak over his career has been a better player than Pouilot.

Boyle and Richards are the ones that we really haven't replaced, that's not "significantly weaker".. We will also probably get more production from stepan, Kreider, Mcdonagh etc as they continue to grow and mature, we also have MSL for a full 82 game season, same with Nash healthy hopefully... pretty much the same defense, and the best goalie in the world.

 

[Crazed Beaver]

Moore has more NHL experience but the only thing he's proven in that time is that he doesn't really know what he's doing out on the ice. Allen plays a smoother and steadier game. I like his odds to grab the third pairing spot this year.

Moore isn't going anywhere, especially for an inferior ahl player who is getting long in the tooth and represents limited upside.

 

[Zil]

not sure how we are significantly weaker... other than center..

Boyle is not any worse than Stralman, for what Stralman brought defensively, Boyle will make up for it with his offense, and should be a BIG time upgrade on the PP paired with Mcdonagh.

Stempniak over his career has been a better player than Pouilot.

Boyle and Richards are the ones that we really haven't replaced, that's not "significantly weaker".. We will also probably get more production from stepan, Kreider, Mcdonagh etc as they continue to grow and mature, we also have MSL for a full 82 game season, same with Nash healthy hopefully... pretty much the same defense, and the best goalie in the world.

Should you care to do some reading:

On Stralman: http://www.mc79hockey.com/2014/06/points-arent-offence/

On Stempniak versus Pouliot: http://rangersunlimited.com/2014/07/17/off-season-target-lee-stempniak/

And like you acknowledged the middle is a huge question mark.

Moore isn't going anywhere, especially for an inferior ahl player who is getting long in the tooth and represents limited upside.

Allen's not inferior. I don't think you know anything about Allen if that's your evaluation of him. John Moore's a shaky defender who doesn't create much offense. Allen's a two-way defender who can move the puck.

 

[Crazed Beaver]

Allen's not inferior. I don't think you know anything about Allen if that's your evaluation of him. John Moore's a shaky defender who doesn't create much offense. Allen's a two-way defender who can move the puck.

The talent evaluators of the NY Rangers obviously don't agree with your assessment. Until such a time that Allen establishes himself as an NHL player he is absolutely unequivocally inferior. Any way you spin it Allen just a minor leaguer up to this point.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Moore isn't going anywhere, especially for an inferior ahl player who is getting long in the tooth and represents limited upside.

Allen could absolutely take Moore's spot if he outplays him at camp, which is entirely possible.

 

[TheTakedown]

Brassard's going to put up 55-60 when he's never put up 50 before? Miller's going to put up 40 points this year when we don't even know if he's an NHLer yet? That's some extremely wishful thinking.

did you not catch the "IF" in my statement?

 

[Zil]

did you not catch the "IF" in my statement?

I caught the if. But I don't see the point to it. Why speculate about major point boosts out of unlikely sources? I'd thrilled with 30 points and Solid all around Miller, but I think that's a stretch.

The talent evaluators of the NY Rangers obviously don't agree with your assessment. Until such a time that Allen establishes himself as an NHL player he is absolutely unequivocally inferior. Any way you spin it Allen just a minor leaguer up to this point.

Going by that John Moore has more value than every prospect in the league. It's highly likely that Allen bumps him if he gets a chance.

 

[TheTakedown]

not sure how we are significantly weaker... other than center..

Boyle is not any worse than Stralman, for what Stralman brought defensively, Boyle will make up for it with his offense, and should be a BIG time upgrade on the PP paired with Mcdonagh.

Stempniak over his career has been a better player than Pouilot.

Boyle and Richards are the ones that we really haven't replaced, that's not "significantly weaker".. We will also probably get more production from stepan, Kreider, Mcdonagh etc as they continue to grow and mature, we also have MSL for a full 82 game season, same with Nash healthy hopefully... pretty much the same defense, and the best goalie in the world.

and even then, there's little reason to doubt that Miller can replace Richards' even strength points... of the 51 points Richards' scored, 19 were on the PP. Assuming Boyle picks up those 19 points, that leaves 32 points for Miller to make up... playing with MSL and Hagelin on his wings seems to make that a very real possibility, if not more points...

I caught the if. But I don't see the point to it. Why speculate about major point boosts out of unlikely sources? I'd thrilled with 30 points and Solid all around Miller, but I think that's a stretch.

Again, we're looking for Miller to replace 30 points of production. He scored 1PPG in the AHL. Assuming a little less than half of those points translate into NHL production, 30-35 points is reasonable. 40 is absolutely possible!

I'd also like to point out that it's VERY possible that Allen's play in the AHL and upcoming training camp COULD earn him a spot on the 3rd pairing. If it does, then we suddenly have a RIDICULOUSLY wanted trade chip in John Moore. Package him with another prospect and/or pick, and we can upgrade forward positions even further!

 

[Zil]

and even then, there's little reason to doubt that Miller can replace Richards' even strength points... of the 51 points Richards' scored, 19 were on the PP. Assuming Boyle picks up those 19 points, that leaves 32 points for Miller to make up... playing with MSL and Hagelin on his wings seems to make that a very real possibility, if not more points...

Miller has 10 points in 56 NHL games. I'm encouraged by the AHL numbers, but we can't pencil him in for that kind of production until he shows something at the highest level.