Speculation: 2013 Offseason: UFAs, Trades, What's Next? | Part VII

[HSF]

I just watched the whole presser you can watch it to. MacArthur only came up the morning of FA. On the morning of FA at 10 or 9:30 he was informed Clarkson would not be signing with the sens. The deal for Alfie had not been finalized. It was after Anaheim heard that alfie would not be resigning and BM cam back with the 1st pick that the deal was done .

Macarthur came up cause Alfie wasn't signing here.

Clarkson and Ryan have been in the works for a while

 

[HSF]

ppl seem to forget that in Murray's mind it was

Clarkson + Silverberg or Ryan


which is why i can see why they went for Clarkson first

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Macarthur came up cause Alfie wasn't signing here.

Clarkson and Ryan have been in the works for a while

Maybe but it we would have signed clarkson we wouldn't have signed MacArthur. I believe this to be true since BM basically said MacArther only came up after Clarkson.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

ppl seem to forget that in Murray's mind it was

Clarkson + Silverberg or Ryan


which is why i can see why they went for Clarkson first

you can argue that and you can also argue we had a standing offer on the table for ryan well we were offering clarkson a contract.

 

[DefenseMinister]

Maybe but it we would have signed clarkson we wouldn't have signed MacArthur. I believe this to be true since BM basically said MacArther only came up after Clarkson.

There is no way the Sens would have been able to incorporate both Ryan and Clarkson in their budget. It was one or the other. I even included the article earlier where it was stated explicitly that Murray only pulled the trigger on the Ryan deal because they knew they couldn't get Clarkson.

You obviously know this because you're trying to weirdly retrofit Michalek into a deal for Ryan even though there is no way the Ducks would have entertained the possibility. If you want to argue the fact that Murray could have at one time presented Michalek as an option to the Ducks, then sure, he could have. But it would have been immediately shot down for a dozen different reasons so what's the point of even bringing it up? The Ducks wanted young, cheap players. That's what they asked for from the Sens and that's what they ended up getting. The only difference is who exactly these young, cheap assets were.

 

[Powdered Toast Man]

This is a really silly tangent. You either take Murray on his word, or you don't.

 

[DefenseMinister]

you can argue that and you can also argue we had a standing offer on the table for ryan well we were offering clarkson a contract.

There was no standing offer for Ryan when the Sens were courting Clarkson. The deal was stalled/backburnered because the Ducks asking price was too steep.

Murray only went back to the Ducks with a reworked deal for Ryan after he knew they weren't going to get Clarkson. He probably knew they weren't getting Clarkson all along but he was going to make sure that was the case before going in another direction. Why do you think the Ryan deal was finalized about an hour after Clarkson signed with the Leafs?

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

There is no way the Sens would have been able to incorporate both Ryan and Clarkson in their budget. It was one or the other. I even included the article earlier where it was stated explicitly that Murray only pulled the trigger on the Ryan deal because they knew they couldn't get Clarkson.

You obviously know this because you're trying to weirdly retrofit Michalek into a deal for Ryan even though there is no way the Ducks would have entertained the possibility. If you want to argue the fact that Murray could have at one time presented Michalek as an option to the Ducks, then sure, he could have. But it would have been immediately shot down for a dozen different reasons so what's the point of even bringing it up? The Ducks wanted young, cheap players. That's what they asked for from the Sens and that's what they ended up getting. The only difference is who exactly these young, cheap assets were.

My point is, and you cant deny this is that BM wanted Clarkson(yes),Alfie(yes) and ryan(yes). We tried to land them. What your saying is its impossible BM could ever want all those players because there is no way to work it out. I'm saying BM ideally would want all those players and to do it he would have to move MM to Anaheim. Now i ask you what do you think BM offered along with silf and a second to anheim? He didnt just have them come to him he had to make an offer.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

There was no standing offer for Ryan when the Sens were courting Clarkson. The deal was stalled/backburnered because the Ducks asking price was too steep.

Murray only went back to the Ducks with a reworked deal for Ryan after he knew they weren't going to get Clarkson. He probably knew they weren't getting Clarkson all along but he was going to make sure that was the case before going in another direction. Why do you think the Ryan deal was finalized about an hour after Clarkson signed with the Leafs?

Youre assuming alot more then me. Why would he take a deal off the table if it worked for him ? He didnt lose any players. I'm sure he knew clarkson wasnt a sure thing so why would he take a standing offer off the table if hes not losing any assets. What i just can't wrap my head around is why wouldnt he not try to get ,the as BM said "right deal " done if it worked for him in acquiring all 3 players. As for the ryan deal BM stated that he thought Anaheim withdrew its attemps to get 2 roster players because anheim knew with the loss of alfy ( or you could also say clarkson not signing) that we couldnt afford to give up too many roster players.

I dont see whats wrong with what i believe could have happened its just as right as yours. The article your citing is what a reporter got from the presser. I'm saying this is what i got from the presser and this is what i think BM would do .

 

[DefenseMinister]

My point is, and you cant deny this is that BM wanted Clarkson(yes),Alfie(yes) and ryan(yes). We tried to land them. What your saying is its impossible BM could ever want all those players because there is no way to work it out. I'm saying BM ideally would want all those players and to do it he would have to move MM to Anaheim. Now i ask you what do you think BM offered along with silf and a second to anheim? He didnt just have them come to him he had to make an offer.

He may have made an offer back in the day, he may not have. I have no idea what you're talking about with regards to this mystery Silfverberg, someone and a 2nd. That's never been reported.

What has been reported is that when the Sens and Ducks were talking previously, the Ducks told Murray that to move Ryan, they'd need 2 of the 3 roster players mentioned, along with a 2nd. Murray didn't feel that was something the Sens could do at the time. Frankly, I don't care if he made another offer since it was clearly not something the Ducks were willing to do. I know what the Ducks wanted and I know what the Sens offered in order to get the deal done which the Ducks found acceptable. And both of those deals had fairly similar components, the Sens just found a way to avoid giving up 2 of their young roster players by upping the future assets (prospect and higher pick).

I feel like I'm talking to a wall. Did the Sens want Alfie, McArthur, Clarkson and Ryan at different times? Yes. Did they think they'd be able have all of them on the roster realistically? No. McArthur was the Plan B once they knew that Alfie was for sure leaving. Ryan was acquired once they knew that Clarkson wasn't going to come. I have given you multiple direct quotes as evidence. Not sure what else you need.

Here's the article from the Citizen again for your reference:

http://www.senatorsextra.com/main/senators-trade-for-bobby-ryan

Senators general manager Bryan Murray has been discussing a possible Ryan trade with Anaheim general manager Bob Murray for awhile – the original proposal called for two players off the existing Senators roster and a second round pick – but it had been on the backburner. When the Senators failed in their quest to sign David Clarkson as an unrestricted free agent (Clarkson ended up in Toronto), the Senators and Ducks re-worked the deal.

 

[HSF]

i doubt we would have signed all three of Macarthur, Alfie AND Clarkson/Ryan


That leaves no top 6 spots open for a young guy which Murray stated he is doing in his presser after all this went down.

If there was also money to do this why didnt he sign someone else? He even stated that Jagr is too expensive for the budget right now and might be better off being a deadline deal

it is fairly obvious Macarthur was signed to cushion the blow of Alfie leaving

Clarkson and Ryan are the powerforward sniper that Murray has coveted. MAYBE best case he would have signed Clarkson and traded for Ryan while letting Alfie leave and not signign Macarthur... but that didn't happen as Clarkson didn't want to come here.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

He may have made an offer back in the day, he may not have. I have no idea what you're talking about with regards to this mystery Silfverberg, someone and a 2nd. That's never been reported.

What has been reported is that when the Sens and Ducks were talking previously, the Ducks told Murray that to move Ryan, they'd need 2 of the 3 roster players mentioned, along with a 2nd. Murray didn't feel that was something the Sens could do at the time. Frankly, I don't care if he made another offer since it was clearly not something the Ducks were willing to do. I know what the Ducks wanted and I know what the Sens offered in order to get the deal done which the Ducks found acceptable. And both of those deals had fairly similar components, the Sens just found a way to avoid giving up 2 of their young roster players by upping the future assets (prospect and higher pick).

I feel like I'm talking to a wall. Did the Sens want Alfie, McArthur, Clarkson and Ryan at different times? Yes. Did they think they'd be able have all of them on the roster realistically? No. McArthur was the Plan B once they knew that Alfie was for sure leaving. Ryan was acquired once they knew that Clarkson wasn't going to come. I have given you multiple direct quotes as evidence. Not sure what else you need.

Here's the article from the Citizen again for your reference:

http://www.senatorsextra.com/main/senators-trade-for-bobby-ryan

Ya thats what he got from the presser.... He wasnt talking with murray or someone in the orginization.... I've always said MacArthur was plan b but i believe he was plan b to clarkson not alfie. I dont believe there was any plan b for alfie. BM said at the presser he wished alfie had told him sooner so he could of had more targets as a replacement. He didnt start talking to MacArthur until after he knew clarkson wasnt signing. If he was replacing alfie he would have set him up before he ever knew clarkson wasnt coming. Instead of reading someone else quoting murray from a presser that is on the senator's website why not just watch it. This guys isnt Murray this guy wasnt even near murray when he was making phone call as far as im concerned he just a reporter reporting quotes and forming opinions based on what he thinks.
I find it hard to believe that Anaheim said we want Cowen/Zbad, silf and a 2nd and murray said no you cant have those and hung up without offering something else.

 

[DefenseMinister]

Ya thats what he got from the presser.... He wasnt talking with murray or someone in the orginization.... I've always said MacArthur was plan b but i believe he was plan b to clarkson not alfie. I dont believe there was any plan b for alfie. BM said at the presser he wished alfie had told him sooner so he could of had more targets.

It's Ken Warren. He definitely was talking to Murray or someone in the organization otherwise he wouldn't have stated that sequence so definitively. That's what reporters do. If it was what he thought happened without verifying it, he would have stated that it was his opinion, not fact (using words such as "probably" or "speculated").

And you don't think that when Murray says that McArthur hadn't been mentioned before that morning that it might have had something to do with finding out late the night before that Alfie wasn't coming back?

This is such a stupid argument. You're now arguing that printed evidence is false because it doesn't align with what you think.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

It's Ken Warren. He definitely was talking to Murray or someone in the organization otherwise he wouldn't have stated that sequence so definitively. That's what reporters do. If it was what he thought happened without verifying it, he would have stated that it was his opinion, not fact (using words such as "probably" or "speculated").

And you don't think that when Murray says that McArthur hadn't been mentioned before that morning that it might have had something to do with finding out late the night before that Alfie wasn't coming back?

This is such a stupid argument. You're now arguing that printed evidence is false because it doesn't align with what you think.

He's quoting the presser. Thats all. He wrote this article on the day of the trade. Its not like he was talking to him on FA day was he ? I dont know why you think he was deep in the trench with murray during FA day.
You're right. This is a stupid argument. The fact is theres no proof saying he wanted them all on the same team i guess.. other then he had deals arranged for each one and theres no proof saying that in his mind theres no reason he'd ever want to have both ryan and Clarkson. He liked all three players and he wanted all three to add to that i think he probably would of had a plan to get all three but i guess your right murray would never want to try to get 3 players he liked. Might as well add that the entire article is quotes and his interpretation of the presser. Not hard to see really.

 

[DefenseMinister]

He's quoting the presser. Thats all. He wrote this article on the day of the trade. Its not like he was talking to him on FA day was he ? I dont know why you think he was deep in the trench with murray during FA day.
You're right. This is a stupid argument. The fact is theres no proof saying he wanted them all on the say team i guess.. other then he had deal arranged for each one and theres no proof saying that in his mind theres no reason he'd ever want to have both ryan and Clarkson. He liked all three players and he wanted all three to add to that i think he probably would of had a plan to get all three but i guess your right murray would never want to try to get 3 players he liked. Might as well add that the entire article is quotes and his interpretation of the presser. Not hard to see really.

From the Bryan Murray presser, his words unfiltered:

http://senators.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=18900

On free agent targets:

Clarkson and Alfie, those were the targets that we had. Bobby Ryan was a guy that we had talked about a week ago or a couple of weeks ago, actually, and he was sitting there, I didn't know what was going to happen. When you're making a trade you never know if they're going to pull the trigger or not and then MacArthur came up this morning, I talked to Paul at length about him. We think coming to our team, where he fits, he'll probably play with a Turris type of centre, he's got a history of scoring goals -- I think he can get 15 to 20 goals for us -- and then obviously I got on the phone with Bob Murray -- I was told at 10 o'clock or 9:30 that David was going elsewhere, he wasn't coming to Ottawa. That's when I got on the Anaheim trade again.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

From the Bryan Murray presser, his words unfiltered:

http://senators.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=18900

I dont really see your point ? I actually watched the presser. He's not stating thing chronologically. It's pretty well known that he changed his first offer after clarkson didnt sign. Just more reason to argue that michalek was in his first offer imo. Theres no point in continuing this lol im only speculating. Saying what i think happened.

"When you're making a trade you never know if they're going to pull the trigger"
Makes me damn sure he had a standing offer though. I was gonna get that quote but couldnt find it thanks.

 

[DefenseMinister]

Just more reason to argue that michalek was in his first offer imo.

I can keep quoting if you like:

On if the Ryan trade was contingent on Alfredsson:

I knew what the cost was. When Alfie met with me back in June, I said I don't tell people about trades or what we're doing but this is what I'm trying to do. The pieces were basically the same as when I made the trade today. The only difference in the whole trade that happened was that I was offering a second round pick instead of a first and today when they said, "Well, we really need the first, Bryan, to make it work." They asked for a different player involved too and I said no to that and then I said I'll give you the first instead of the second to make it happen. It wasn't something out of the extraordinary. The thing we did do is we made an offer to David Clarkson. When I made the offer for Bobby Ryan originally, David Clarkson wasn't originally involved. When that kind of fell apart, that's when I got Dave involved as well. I lost out on him this morning.

And I'm pretty sure you're interpreting this quote incorrectly:

"When you're making a trade you never know if they're going to pull the trigger".

What he's saying is that he wanted a Ryan trade to happen but they had been talking for a while and nothing was happening and he wasn't sure if they would actually end up ever finalizing a deal at all. You need two parties to tango in any deal. So while he really wanted a Ryan deal to happen, there was no guarantee it ever would which is why he started pursuing Clarkson. Then he talks about how after Clarkson turned them down, he got back in touch with the Ducks and was willing to sweeten the deal that they had stalled on in order to ensure they got Ryan and didn't end up empty handed.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

I can keep quoting if you like:

His first offer was two weeks before FA ...He said ORIGINALLY he changed his mind. Also we know he wasnt offering noeson up until FA. Doesnt this stuff prove my point .. Might as well say basically is vague too. I wouldnt expect him to say the trade did a 180. He had no reason to assume that Clarkson would go to ottawa two weeks ago or it'd be considered tampering.
"When that kind of fell apart, that's when I got Dave involved as well. I lost out on him this morning"
He had both players involved. He wanted both players.

 

[Super Cake]

Why are you guys still arguing about this? Its pointless. It does not really matter what happened being that what is done is done. Move on and change the discussion.

 

[DefenseMinister]

I'm arguing because I'm right. Not sure why the other guy is.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Why are you guys still arguing about this? Its pointless. It does not really matter what happened being that what is done is done. Move on and change the discussion.

i agree i've been trying to say its done ill let him finish on the high note.
Still doesnt change that i think BM wanted all three players if he could.

 

[trentmccleary]

Colorado was a bad team in 2009-10, who only made it to the playoffs thanks to incredible luck. Everyone in the advanced stats community saw the collapse coming.

Ottawa on the other hand was a good-to-excellent team in 2012-13 that mixed some great luck (goaltending) with horrid luck (injuries, shooting %). Barring some really weird occurrences, Ottawa is not going to be the 2010-11 Avalanche. Just a much better team all-around.

Colorado's mid-tier players, 2nd & 3rd liners... plus pretty much their whole top-4 d-corps was terrible. Take a look at that team, half of those players aren't qualified to play those roles.

I don't think Corvo's ice time with a terrible Carolina team really tells us anything about where Wiercioch will be next season. I certainly recognize the concern with the perceived hole on defense but its not as dire as on paper if. First off, we'll have Karlsson and Methot chewing up 26+ minutes a game. That immediately takes pressure off any other D pairings. Despite popular perception, Chris Phillips is still capable as a top 4 defender. Cowen may well be ready for a #3 role. We'll find out soon enough. At worst, I think he's a #4. Whenever Karlsson and Methot aren't on the ice, Phillips or Cowen will be, and that TO ME seems like a good situation.

Gryba played 20+ minutes as a rookie against quality competition. He can be put in that role again and will have experience to draw on. Corvo's been a top 4 guy in the past, because of his puck moving skills which is a great positive because he'll be playing with one of the more defensively inclined LDs in Philly or Cowen when he does play.

With Wiercioch, I could see him in a similar role this season. His minutes aren't all that important but I see him as the best option to play opposite of Karlsson on the 1st PP unit and there lies his value to the team as a PP specialist and secondary puck mover.

PK looks good with Methot, Cowen, Gryba, Phillips and Karlsson. 5 on 5 will be good as always. PP is the question mark and even then, we can probably convert at a decent rate with just Karlsson and whomever else.

I say let the kids play and reassess 2-3 months into the season. We have strengths in other areas to carry the team if it becomes a problem.

We were without Karlsson & Cowen, I don't know how you can really claim superiority over Carolina's d-corps for last season. Corvo played 3 mins more than Wiercioch played and has a recent history of being a top-4 d-man on some pretty competitive teams.
2008-09 Playoffs (1st-3rd rounds): 18gp, 25:27 mins per game for Corvo as Carolina's #2 d-man.

There isn't a hole in the defense corps.
On the right side, Karlsson will take 27 of 60 minutes.
On the left, Methot/Phillips/Cowen will steal an additional 3 mins of SH ice time from the right side.
Leaving only 30 mins for the other 2 d-men on the right. Gryba/Wiercioch/Corvo will be hard pressed to maintain the 36 mins per game that those 2 roles earned last year.

 

[Micklebot]

Colorado's mid-tier players, 2nd & 3rd liners... plus pretty much their whole top-4 d-corps was terrible. Take a look at that team, half of those players aren't qualified to play those roles.



We were without Karlsson & Cowen, I don't know how you can really claim superiority over Carolina's d-corps for last season. Corvo played 3 mins more than Wiercioch played and has a recent history of being a top-4 d-man on some pretty competitive teams.
2008-09 Playoffs (1st-3rd rounds): 18gp, 25:27 mins per game for Corvo as Carolina's #2 d-man.

There isn't a hole in the defense corps.
On the right side, Karlsson will take 27 of 60 minutes.
On the left, Methot/Phillips/Cowen will steal an additional 3 mins of SH ice time from the right side.
Leaving only 30 mins for the other 2 d-men on the right. Gryba/Wiercioch/Corvo will be hard pressed to maintain the 36 mins per game that those 2 roles earned last year.

To be fair, Carolina also had core pieces of their D miss time as well in Pitkanen (26 games missed), Faulk (10), Gleason (6) and McBain (4 to injury). Not really the same level as Ottawa had, but certainly helped push up Corvo's mins last season.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

We were without Karlsson & Cowen, I don't know how you can really claim superiority over Carolina's d-corps for last season. Corvo played 3 mins more than Wiercioch played and has a recent history of being a top-4 d-man on some pretty competitive teams.
2008-09 Playoffs (1st-3rd rounds): 18gp, 25:27 mins per game for Corvo as Carolina's #2 d-man.

There isn't a hole in the defense corps.
On the right side, Karlsson will take 27 of 60 minutes.
On the left, Methot/Phillips/Cowen will steal an additional 3 mins of SH ice time from the right side.
Leaving only 30 mins for the other 2 d-men on the right. Gryba/Wiercioch/Corvo will be hard pressed to maintain the 36 mins per game that those 2 roles earned last year.

OTT GA/G: 2.08, 2nd in NHL
CAR GA/G: 3.31, 29th in NHL

OTT PK%: 88.0, 1st in NHL
CAR PK%: 77.9, 28th in NHL
(CAR was +10:26 in PP - PK time, OTT was -15:50)

CAR D: 80pts
OTT D: 103pts
(Wiercioch would have led their D in scoring and they were a higher scoring team by a large margin, 127 to 112)

I realize they had some poor goaltending but this isn't even an argument. I don't see how you could possibly argue Carolina's D being superior to Ottawa's.

As far as the rest of your post, I think we're agreement?

 

[JSSSTP]

Is anyone else feeling a little uneasy that we haven't heard much about Cowen's contract negotiations? I'm sure he'll resign, I'm just curious as to why it's taking so long and why it's so 'hush hush'.