2008 Born for the 2024 OHL Draft

[JuniorHockeyInsider]

USHL and BCHL is a step BELOW every CHL caliber game in terms of development and speed of the game. I dont understand why so many high skilled guys want to commit to those remote teams. There's no data that supports those two lesser junior paths are faster to getting paid to play hockey down the road. Not even NCAA players are recruited into the NHL as much as the CHL players. It never has been despite hearing for the past decade: "it's changing, you watch". And... 95%+ of every World Juniors of the Canada roster is made of CHL players, its that big of a gap vs BCHL and USHL.

95% are from CHL because they are hockey canada. USHL and BCHL are not under the hockey canada umbrella so hockey canada are less inclined to select players in those leagues

 

[Section5Petes]

I have not heard that Brady Wassilyn indicated that he will not report to the Petes. Where did hear this? I would prefer they draft Alessandro Di Iorio in the 1st round but I am not sure he will be available when the Petes draft 3rd with Adam Valentini indicating he may play in the US.

I believe he was referring to Wassilyn not reporting to sarnia...

 

[Isaac Nootin]

USHL and BCHL is a step BELOW every CHL caliber game in terms of development and speed of the game.

BCHL, yes.

USHL is close and closing the gap year after year. It's a fantastic league.

I believe he was referring to Wassilyn not reporting to sarnia...

Believe he's more referring to Wassilyn potentially having a deal with Niagara.

 

[Section5Petes]

BCHL, yes.

USHL is close and closing the gap year after year. It's a fantastic league.


Believe he's more referring to Wassilyn potentially having a deal with Niagara.

Yeah I'd say at this point Wassilyn to NIA is one of the only constants with the craziness of this draft

 

[OMG67]

This is no different than any other year.

Games being played all around.

95% of the top 100 all end up in the OHL eventually.

I would qualify that as being “Canadian” players. Clearly a lot of top US Born players stay in the USA and no one really expects them to come to the CHL.

And, if you say 95% of the top 100, it suggests that five out of 100 go the US Route. I do think it is a little more than that but I think the real interesting stat this year would be how many of the top 20 Canadian players go the US Route. It seems like there are a lot “reported” as going the US Route. If the rumours are all true, we could see as many as 8-10 of the top 20 choosing to play outside the CHL. That is a lot of top talent.

 

[OMG67]

USHL and BCHL is a step BELOW every CHL caliber game in terms of development and speed of the game. I dont understand why so many high skilled guys want to commit to those remote teams. There's no data that supports that those junior leagues are a faster path to getting paid to play hockey down the road. In fact, every non-CHL league in North America combined isnt even close to being recruited as much into the NHL as much as the CHL.. It never will be, despite hearing for the past decade: "it's changing, you watch". And... 95%+ of every World Juniors of the Canada roster is made of CHL players, its that big of a gap vs BCHL and USHL.

I think you may be missing a little bit of nuance between the two leagues. The CHL is typically not a league where 16 year olds play much, if at all. It really is an older league. The USHL tends to be a younger league with players graduating to NCAA earlier. So, 16 year olds are in better situations where they play.

I would agree that the USHL is not the best league for 18 and 19 year olds. The top end talent leaves before they get to their 19 year old season so there aren’t enough strong players to push development in that age group. But, it is strong for the 16 and 17 year olds. They can get more ice against strong competition that suits their maturity level.

 

[Petes1987]

BCHL, yes.

USHL is close and closing the gap year after year. It's a fantastic league.


Believe he's more referring to Wassilyn potentially having a deal with Niagara.

My take on him going to a Niagara was that he was willing to report Niagara while others were unknown. I never took it as he only would only go to the Icedogs.

 

[JuniorHockeyInsider]

Wassilyns agent is real close to the Niagara brass. Hes been linked to Niagara since last summer within the age group.

 

[leafs4life94]

Looking at current USHL tenders:

Rudolfs Berzkalns - BK Selects - Muskegon
Tynan Lawrence - Shattuck - Muskegon
Beckham Edwards - Little Caesars - Youngstown
Jack Hextall - Chicago Mission - Youngstown
Nikita Klepov - WB/Scranton Knights - Sioux City
Cole Bumgarner - Minnesota Lakers - Fargo
Jet Kwajah - Toronto Jr. Canadiens - Madison
Callum Croskery - Oakville Rangers - Chicago
Thomas Vandenberg - Ottawa Myers - Cedar Rapids
Ilya Morozov - Windy City Storm - Tri-City
*Colin Fitzgerald - Peterborough Petes - Green Bay

The USHL hasn't posted anything on their website about the Fitzgerald tender but the Green Bay team site has an article that he's tendered.

Last year it looks like 1 of 9 tenders ended up staying in the Canada (Liam Kilfoil - QMJHL).

 

[Kingpin794]

I think you may be missing a little bit of nuance between the two leagues. The CHL is typically not a league where 16 year olds play much, if at all. It really is an older league. The USHL tends to be a younger league with players graduating to NCAA earlier. So, 16 year olds are in better situations where they play.

I would agree that the USHL is not the best league for 18 and 19 year olds. The top end talent leaves before they get to their 19 year old season so there aren’t enough strong players to push development in that age group. But, it is strong for the 16 and 17 year olds. They can get more ice against strong competition that suits their maturity level.

Go look at scoring for 16 year olds that aren’t part of the NTDP in the USHL. Unless you’re a future top ten pick, It’s usually not amazing. CHL regularly has 16 year olds that contribute to their teams. No top tier junior league is going to be easy for 16 yr olds but the CHL typically gives those skill guys more room to shine.

 

[OHL4Life]

I have not heard that Brady Wassilyn indicated that he will not report to the Petes. Where did hear this? I would prefer they draft Alessandro Di Iorio in the 1st round but I am not sure he will be available when the Petes draft 3rd with Adam Valentini indicating he may play in the US.

I’m saying he would prefer elsewhere. you also said michael Simpson wouldn’t be traded and a week later he was for less then you said. with all due respect if you dont believe me, then don’t worry about my info.

Goddamn. Lmao. That's disappointing. Gonna have to reach it would seem. Hate that these kids do this. Their choice ik. Just frustrating.

Sarnia gotta be scrambling rn with Fitzgerald doing this out of nowhere. Might have to reach for McLean maybe.

just talked to someone who thinks Fitzgerald backing out may make Wasslyn an option there.

everything has gone crazy the last 3 hours so it’s hard to know what’s right and wrong. I’ll know more tomorrow afternoon

 

[BigDevs93]

USHL and BCHL is a step BELOW every CHL caliber game in terms of development and speed of the game. I dont understand why so many high skilled guys want to commit to those remote teams. There's no data that supports that those junior leagues are a faster path to getting paid to play hockey down the road. In fact, every non-CHL league in North America combined isnt even close to being recruited as much into the NHL as much as the CHL.. It never will be, despite hearing for the past decade: "it's changing, you watch". And... 95%+ of every World Juniors of the Canada roster is made of CHL players, its that big of a gap vs BCHL and USHL.

College hockey is becoming more and more attractive to these kids. Play a year or 2 in the USHL, and go play D1 for 4 years or less while getting an education, it's a sweet deal.

Graduating at 24 from a canadian university doesn't sound as fun as graduating from from a top-tier school in the states at 22.

If hockey is your life, OHL is the route for you. If education is important to you, the US college route is highly attractive.

Don't think for a second these kids parents aren't involved in some of these choices.

BUT the best route to the NHL, is through the CHL, there's no denying that.

I totally understand it for kids who needs time to develop physically (kids like Katzin/Bray), but Fitzgerald, Vandenberg, Valentini, these kids are built for the OHL.

 

[StingUpdates]

I’m saying he would prefer elsewhere. you also said michael Simpson wouldn’t be traded and a week later he was for less then you said. with all due respect if you dont believe me, then don’t worry about my info.


just talked to someone who thinks Fitzgerald backing out may make Wasslyn an option there.

everything has gone crazy the last 3 hours so it’s hard to know what’s right and wrong. I’ll know more tomorrow afternoon

Interesting. I'd call his bluff. He wants to play OHL. Agent wants Niagara. Sure Braidy does too but Sarnia ain't this awful place haha. If he really stands by not coming then trade him to Niagara for picks. Get comp pick which will be 5th overall + the picks u get in the trade.

Thanks again!

 

[Bardown99]

BCHL, yes.

USHL is close and closing the gap year after year. It's a fantastic league.

USHL is not closing the gap, sorry. I said that in my original post, but I hear you "wish" they were. A decade of data says its just not the case. Not even USHL, NCAA, BCHL, AJHL, NTDP and USHS combined can touch the CHL draft pick #'s. There's a very tiny trend upwards in 2023, but not a gap thats closing in on any decade #'s in the past.

 

[Bardown99]

College hockey is becoming more and more attractive to these kids. Play a year or 2 in the USHL, and go play D1 for 4 years or less while getting an education, it's a sweet deal.

Graduating at 24 from a canadian university doesn't sound as fun as graduating from from a top-tier school in the states at 22.

If hockey is your life, OHL is the route for you. If education is important to you, the US college route is highly attractive.

Don't think for a second these kids parents aren't involved in some of these choices.

BUT the best route to the NHL, is through the CHL, there's no denying that.

I totally understand it for kids who needs time to develop physically (kids like Katzin/Bray), but Fitzgerald, Vandenberg, Valentini, these kids are built for the OHL.

I agree with most of this. But unless its Yale, Harvard, Standford, etc. Your University education in Canada is still top notch and free.... No Canadian born is getting a full ride D1 in hockey, so you are already at a loss. Its a fine balance of decisions here imo. Take the lesser junior hockey route from ages 16.5 to 18.5 in the USHL/USHS then move on to the lesser skilled NCAA hockey route and then you get learn about those American politics and accounting in those schools all day too or......actually make a difference in a tougher hockey league in Canada and go to the schools that are relevant to your actual future in your own country if you dont happen to make it in hockey.

 

[frontsfan67]

Interesting. I'd call his bluff. He wants to play OHL. Agent wants Niagara. Sure Braidy does too but Sarnia ain't this awful place haha. If he really stands by not coming then trade him to Niagara for picks. Get comp pick which will be 5th overall + the picks u get in the trade.

Thanks again!

Oh absolutely. If I was the gm of sarnia, getting a top 5 pick next year plus all of this compensation with draft picks makes wassilyn to sarnia a no brainer

 

[HockeyPops]

This seems like a simplistic view.

The biggest problem with the CHL education package is you only have 18 months to decide to use it or lose it. You are forced to pick between hockey and school before you have really given hockey a fair shake. Also, you end up at school almost as a mature student. Every other first year is 18, you are 21-22. There are lots of nuances that go into the decision of which path is right for each individual. CHL is not the only answer, and it's not always the right answer.

 

[HolyRoller]

I think you may be missing a little bit of nuance between the two leagues. The CHL is typically not a league where 16 year olds play much, if at all. It really is an older league. The USHL tends to be a younger league with players graduating to NCAA earlier. So, 16 year olds are in better situations where they play.

I would agree that the USHL is not the best league for 18 and 19 year olds. The top end talent leaves before they get to their 19 year old season so there aren’t enough strong players to push development in that age group. But, it is strong for the 16 and 17 year olds. They can get more ice against strong competition that suits their maturity level.

Or not....

USHL ROSTER MAKE-UP 23-24

2007s- 9.5%
2006s- 21.1%
2005s - 27.3%
2004s - 27.1%
2003s - 13.0%

CHL ROSTER MAKE-UP 23-24

2007s- 11.3%
2006s - 24.3%
2005s - 26.2%
2004s - 26.2%
2003s - 12.0%

 

[Isaac Nootin]

USHL is not closing the gap, sorry. I said that in my original post, but I hear you "wish" they were. A decade of data says its just not the case. Not even USHL, NCAA, BCHL, AJHL, NTDP and USHS combined can touch the CHL draft pick #'s.

What were the numbers 10 years ago? What are they now?

The USHL is a 17 team league, the CHL is what? 60?

 

[HolyRoller]

What were the numbers 10 years ago? What are they now?

The USHL is a 17 team league, the CHL is what? 60?

What were the numbers 10 years ago? What are they now?

The USHL is a 17 team league, the CHL is what? 60?

USHL players this year by Nationality

US Players - 75.1%
CDN Players - 10.1% (13 players from Ontario - 3.1% of USHL)
Euro/Others - 12.3%

 

[Isaac Nootin]

USHL players this year by Nationality

US Players - 75.1%
CDN Players - 10.1% (13 players from Ontario - 3.1% of USHL)
Euro/Others - 12.3%

Not sure what this has to do with how good the leagues are?

I expect the percentage of CDN players to continue to grow.

 

[OMG67]

Go look at scoring for 16 year olds that aren’t part of the NTDP in the USHL. Unless you’re a future top ten pick, It’s usually not amazing. CHL regularly has 16 year olds that contribute to their teams. No top tier junior league is going to be easy for 16 yr olds but the CHL typically gives those skill guys more room to shine.

How many 16 year old OHL players play top 9 or top 4?

The USHL is a younger league where younger players get more opportunity. It isn’t about stat collection, it is about value of playing time.

Each OHL team can card an average of four 16 year olds annually (80 players). On average, only two of them are regular starters (40 players) and less than one of them play in a regular top 9 or top 4 (15-20 players) role. These numbers are different in the USHL. The younger players do get a lot more ice and the ice they get is against players that are more closer to their age and skill set than the OHL where they are playing against a lot of 18-19-20 year olds. Most of the better USHL players are playing NCAA at 19 and many at 18.

The reality is, the USHL, on the whole, is a better league for the majority of 16 year olds that are drafted to the OHL and end up playing Tier II.

If a 16 year old goes to the USHL with the intent of developing through four seasons there, that would be silly to me. The top of the OHL is considerably better than the top of the USHL because the best USHL players are gone by 19.

If we narrow this discussion to ONLY the elite 16 year olds that would be top 1-15 OHL picks then yes, you have a point but my point was related to the OP that stated 95% of the top 100 end up playing in the OHL. That may be somewhat true but the top 100 sure aren’t playing in the OHL as 16 year olds because they aren’t nearly good enough to stick unless it is a really poor team with depth issues.

Players that choose USHL over CHL as 16 year olds on average get more meaningful ice time. But, the value of their decision lessens the older they get. Conversely, the value of the decision of a player to go CHL increases the older they get. An 18 year old will likely contribute more and face a higher level of opposition that helps them develop compared to an 18 year old in the USHL. That gap may have narrowed somewhat over the last few years but as of now, I believe that to be the case.

 

[OMG67]

Or not....

USHL ROSTER MAKE-UP 23-24

2007s- 9.5%
2006s- 21.1%
2005s - 27.3%
2004s - 27.1%
2003s - 13.0%

CHL ROSTER MAKE-UP 23-24

2007s- 11.3%
2006s - 24.3%
2005s - 26.2%
2004s - 26.2%
2003s - 12.0%

It isn’t about the % of the roster makeup. It is about the level of competition within those percentages. You cannot honestly say the 2003 and 2004 class in the USHL rivals that of the CHL. It quite simply isn’t true. Therefore, the 2007 class (regardless of the %) play against a lower level of competition which allows them more opportunity to play meaningful minutes compared to the CHL. Like I said in the previous post, the longer a player stays int he USHL, the worse the competition level gets for that player.

The USHL is not a developmental league for 19 and 20 year olds. The only 19 and 20 year olds in the USHL are players not going to school and their career is basically over. Similar to CIS Students at 24 years old. That’s pretty much where it stops for them.

EDIT:
Look at the USNT entry in the USHL. If we were to enter them as a team in the OHL, they’d get waxed regularly. That team in the USHL didn’t finish last (49 points in 60 games) and had a goal differential of only -46. That is a comparable result to Barrie in the OHL. Could that NTDP team playing other OHL teams finish ahead of Niagara, Sarnia, Peterborough, and Windsor in the OHL? I think that would be wishful thinking.

 

[frontsfan67]

Or not....

USHL ROSTER MAKE-UP 23-24

2007s- 9.5%
2006s- 21.1%
2005s - 27.3%
2004s - 27.1%
2003s - 13.0%

CHL ROSTER MAKE-UP 23-24

2007s- 11.3%
2006s - 24.3%
2005s - 26.2%
2004s - 26.2%
2003s - 12.0%

Not sure where you got these stats but that’s pretty similar stats between the 2. Very interesting

 

[Petes1987]

I am not sure how true the reports are that Colin Fitzgerald is not going to play in the OHL. According to an article in the Peterborough Examiner today he talks about the draft and possibly going 2nd overall with the reports that Sarnia is going to draft him with the 2nd pick and is looking forward to possibly matching the record of being Peterborough born player drafted the earliest in the draft. There is no mention of him going another route other than the OHL and I draw the conclusion from reading the article that he intends to play in the OHL.

‘All the accolades and talk about him right now are well warranted’: OHL draft eyeing Colin Fitzgerald as possible top 5 pick

The 2024 OHL Priority Selection takes place on Friday night.

www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com