Prospect Info: 17th Official Rangers Prospect Poll (Summer 2018): #1 Prospect

[Edge]

Don't think you can logically put him number one when Chytil has already proven (albeit a small sample size) that he can produce well for his age at the NHL already.

Shestyorkin has been one of the top goalies in the world, outside the NHL for a while now.

I like Chytil, and would probably make the argument for him being number two, but wouldn't put him ahead of Shestyorkin.

Yes the NHL production in 9 games looks promising, the AHL was very good. Some other samplings were a bit underwhelming, and surprisingly so I might add.

Is Chytil a first line center? Not quite sure about that yet.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Lot of skating around, bursts of production over the last two years. Definitely came up big in big game situations, but there are A LOT of missing pieces there and the playoffs, while great, is a VERY small sample size.

He's talented, but there are lot of question marks there for him to be leapfrogging guys who have great results and a longer track record.

Yes, but every player picked outside the top-3 has question marks.

Tkachuk: Production
Wahlstrom: Self-sufficiency
Boqvist: Concussions
Kotkaniemi: Skating
Zadina: Physicality

As for our own prospects:

Lias: Skating
Chytil: Consistency
Howden: Production
Hajek: Transition

 

[Polar Bear]

Shestyorkin has been one of the top goalies in the world, outside the NHL for a while now.

I like Chytil, and would probably make the argument for him being number two, but wouldn't put him ahead of Shestyorkin.

Yes the NHL production in 9 games looks promising, the AHL was very good. Some other samplings were a bit underwhelming, and surprisingly so I might add.

Is Chytil a first line center? Not quite sure about that yet.

I don't know either, we will get a much better picture this year. He absolutely has the talent and skill to be as such. His North American production has been promising so far. I don't know if you could realistically ask for a better first season of North American hockey from Chytil.

 

[Edge]

Agreed.

For me, Lias and Kravtsov are incredibly close calls in the 3/4 spots.

I'm looking at upside/talent, as well as results.

Shestyorkin has both. Chytil has both. Andersson has both.

Kravtsov isn't quite there yet, not for a longer stretch. I like the upside, but this also kind of screams of the board going all in on a pick that scares them more than they care to admit. It's happened before. For better or worse.

 

[Edge]

Yes, but every player picked outside the top-3 has question marks.

Tkachuk: Production
Wahlstrom: Self-sufficiency
Boqvist: Concussions
Kotkaniemi: Skating
Zadina: Physicality

As for our own prospects:

Lias: Skating
Chytil: Consistency
Howden: Production
Hajek: Transition

I don't think it's a question of whether other kids have things to work on. Nor is it a matter that Kravtsov isn't good.

But there's no getting around two key factors with Kravtsov at this point ( as in June 2018):

1. His sample size for success in the KHL is pretty narrow, albeit impressive.

2. His samples prior to the MHL still paint a picture of a talented, but not necessarily dominating force. He was good, perhaps very good. But he wasn't a kid who lit up the lower ranks and then struggled to transition.

This is a kid who is VERY much a work in progress.

 

[E-Train]

Chytil, add Hajek.

 

[Harbour Dog]

I'm looking at upside/talent, as well as results.

Shestyorkin has both. Chytil has both. Andersson has both.

Kravtsov isn't quite there yet, not for a longer stretch. I like the upside, but this also kind of screams of the board going all in on a pick that scares them more than they care to admit. It's happened before. For better or worse.

Kravtsov's upside probably trumps Lias' though, and that narrows the gap between those two for me. I'm leaning Lias right now, which is a testament to what the kid has done this year. I really never liked taking him at 7, but it just seems like all he does is produce and win.

You have Kravtsov easily at 4, I assume?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Kravtsov's upside probably trumps Lias' though, and that narrows the gap between those two for me. I'm leaning Lias right now, which is a testament to what the kid has done this year. I really never liked taking him at 7, but it just seems like all he does is produce and win.

You have Kravtsov easily at 4, I assume?

He's been performing once he had his break in October (after that cruel travel schedule)

 

[Matt Rentfree]

Shestyorkin add Howden

 

[Polar Bear]

I don't think it's a question of whether other kids have things to work on. Nor is it a matter that Kravtsov isn't good.

But there's no getting around two key factors with Kravtsov at this point ( as in June 2018):

1. His sample size for success in the KHL is pretty narrow, albeit impressive.

2. His samples prior to the MHL still paint a picture of a talented, but not necessarily dominating force. He was good, perhaps very good. But he wasn't a kid who lit up the lower ranks and then struggled to transition.

This is a kid who is VERY much a work in progress.

His KHL regular season production is similar to other Russian players who have developed into great players here. More importantly however, is that he averaged only around 9 minutes of ice-time during the regular season IIRC. The instant he received a bigger role and more minutes was during the playoffs, where he beat the record for most points for a player under 20 (Kuz held the previous record).

Work in progress with room to grow? Absolutely. However, his skill level is certainly higher than of Andersson's IMO (which isn't a knock on him either).

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Shestyorkin. Best current player of these players and best potential in reference to his position.

Add Howden.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

You guys are really banking on that small sampling of skill from Kravtsov, eh?

Man you're really down on him aren't you?

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

why is DeAngelo a choice?

 

[Polar Bear]

why is DeAngelo a choice?

Blackballed the OP.

 

[kovazub94]

I’d have goalies excluded from this type of ranking. Best ranked goalie outside of nhl could easily turned into a complete bust or a back up goalie that’s equal to 13th forward or 7th D. Huge risk that’s not nearly as big for skaters.

 

[kovazub94]

I don't think it's a question of whether other kids have things to work on. Nor is it a matter that Kravtsov isn't good.

But there's no getting around two key factors with Kravtsov at this point ( as in June 2018):

1. His sample size for success in the KHL is pretty narrow, albeit impressive.

2. His samples prior to the MHL still paint a picture of a talented, but not necessarily dominating force. He was good, perhaps very good. But he wasn't a kid who lit up the lower ranks and then struggled to transition.

This is a kid who is VERY much a work in progress.

His success and sample size is not unlike Chytil’s or Lias’ in their draft year but he came on the strongest among them. Chytil edges (sorry for the pun if you don’t like it) out Vitali by a split hair, but to me he’s ahead of Lias.

 

[pblawr]

You guys are really banking on that small sampling of skill from Kravtsov, eh?

Let's use a big sampling then.

In the regular season and postseason combined, Kravstov put up 18 points in 51 games (0.35 ppg). Here is how that compares to the best forwards who have come out of the KHL in the past 10 years in their pre-draft seasons:
- Kuznetsov put up 9 points in 39 games (0.23 ppg)
- Tarasenko put up 24 points in 42 games (0.57 ppg)
- Panarin put up 9 points in 20 games (0.45 ppg)
- Kucherov put up 2 points in 9 games (0.22 ppg)
- Buchnevich put up 2 points in 18 games (0.11 ppg)

So without any sample size issues, Kravstov fits right in the middle of Tarasenko, Panarin, Kuznetsov, and Kucherov. His profile is really impressive without focusing on what he did in the playoffs. The fact that he improved dramatically over the season and ended the year by producing at a higher rate than all those players (in tight playoff games against top teams in the league), is just a cherry on top.

 

[Edge]

Man you're really down on him aren't you?

Not down at all. But realistic.

The kid has some serious work to do.

I don’t think people really grasp that.

They’re fixated on the potential, and it’s very much there. But it’s exaxtly that, potential.

Because if you’re basing it on the actual product, he’s not there yet.

Personally, we have three very good prospects who combine the potential AND the results to back it up.

 

[Edge]

His success and sample size is not unlike Chytil’s or Lias’ in their draft year but he came on the strongest among them. Chytil edges (sorry for the pun if you don’t like it) out Vitali by a split hair, but to me he’s ahead of Lias.

But here’s the thing, even if you believe his success is on par with both Andersson and Chytil, and frankly, I don’t think it’s there yet. You still have to account for both guys D-1 years.

So, at best, you have a guy who was where both guys were last year. Not ahead of where they are now.

 

[Polar Bear]

Not down at all. But realistic.

The kid has some serious work to do.

I don’t think people really grasp that.

They’re fixated on the potential, and it’s very much there. But it’s exaxtly that, potential.

Because if you’re basing it on the actual product, he’s not there yet.

Personally, we have three very good prospects who combine the potential AND the results to back it up.

I agree with you that Wahlstrom would have hypothetically been a safer pick (though sacrificing perhaps a tad of overall offensive upside). I do think you are underrating the fact that his best and record setting hockey came at the time where he was given more ice-time and a bigger role on the team.

Is there work to improve on? 100%

Is the trajectory to end the season exactly how we would hope? 100% as well.

 

[pblawr]

2. His samples prior to the MHL still paint a picture of a talented, but not necessarily dominating force. He was good, perhaps very good. But he wasn't a kid who lit up the lower ranks and then struggled to transition.

He was 3rd among U18 players at almost a point-per-game in the MHL last year and then he put up 7 points in the 3 games he played there this year. He actually scored at a higher rate in the MHL as a 17 year old than Denisenko did as an 18 year old and he just abused the league when he played there this year.

 

[pblawr]

But here’s the thing, even if you believe his success is on par with both Andersson and Chytil, and frankly, I don’t think it’s there yet. You still have to account for both guys D-1 years.

So, at best, you have a guy who was where both guys were last year. Not ahead of where they are now.

I do agree with you that he still has to develop and that he has a longer runway than Chytil or Andersson do at this point, but I think you are underappreciating what he accomplished this year (and last year). For his age / stage of his development, he's an incredibly exciting prospect who profiles comparably to players who became franchise cornerstones for cup-contending teams.

 

[Edge]

I agree with you that Wahlstrom would have hypothetically been a safer pick (though sacrificing perhaps a tad of overall offensive upside). I do think you are underrating the fact that his best and record setting hockey came at the time where he was given more ice-time and a bigger role on the team.

Is there work to improve on? 100%

Is the trajectory to end the season exactly how we would hope? 100% as well.

I’m not even talking about Wahlstrom or any other prospect.

I am focused solely on Kravtsov.

For me, there’s a lot of objectivity to be found between saying this was an awful pick and this kid is now the second best prospect in what’s a good top end for a prospect pool.

His long term potential is very good. But heading into this draft everyone has a pretty good idea that he was a work in progress and came with a good degree of risk.

Right now, I think we’re downplaying that a little because I think as a board that scares the shit out of us a little.

If we’re going to acknowledge the talent, we gotta acknowledge the obvious work that has to be done as well.

 

[Polar Bear]

I’m not even talking about Wahlstrom or any other prospect.

I am focused solely on Kravtsov.

For me, there’s a lot of objectivity to be found between saying this was an awful pick and this kid is now the second best prospect in what’s a good top end for a prospect pool.

His long term potential is very good. But heading into this draft everyone has a pretty good idea that he was a work in progress and came with a good degree of risk.

Right now, I think we’re downplaying that a little because I think as a board that scares the **** out of us a little.

If we’re going to acknowledge the talent, we gotta acknowledge the obvious work that has to be done as well.

I was just saying more so in general that there wee safer options to be had.

And yes, of course he can bust, we all need to acknowledge that. Chytil was very much a home run swing last year as well though, so I do have faith in our Euro scouts and development team as it stands.

 

[Edge]

He was 3rd among U18 players at almost a point-per-game in the MHL last year and then he put up 7 points in the 3 games he played there this year. He actually scored at a higher rate in the MHL as a 17 year old than Denisenko did as an 18 year old and he just abused the league when he played there this year.

Not disputing any of that.

Except the abusing the MHL part. He played what, 3 games there this season?

But, I’m open to discussing his MHL play. So I’d love your thoughts:

What are your thoughts on him being pushed off the puck by smaller players, or struggling to adjust when the defense forced the play against him?

He struggled a bit against some of the better players in his age group in the U20s. What adjustments do you see him making?

Any thoughts on some of the belief that he dominated the weaker competition in the MHL but has struggled against some of the better teams and defenses?