Prospect Info: #166 Overall, LW Josh Filmon, Swift Current WHL

DevilsHughes86

Dance with the Devil
Mar 6, 2007
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Laval
He's turning out to be quite the find for the Devils.

Another potential "Jesper Bratt"-type pick (and I mean that in terms of where he was picked, not talent-wise).

I want to see how he will be able to fare in the AHL next....(or will he? I don't know how this works.)

He is eligible for another year of junior hockey, pretty sure that's where he will play
 

Call Me Al

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Aug 28, 2017
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yeah we have a long time to wait for this kid to see if he's the real deal, hopefully this isn't just a fluky season and he builds on it
 
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BurntToast

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May 27, 2007
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I don’t know much, but we have two videos where he jams the puck carrier and steals the puck for goals. That is more promising than the goals themselves. That is modern hockey in my opinion. With his size (if he is 6”3) you would hope for some good board work, but if he can hold position and disrupt plays, his defensive zone play should be fine.
 

Devs3cups

Wind of Change
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May 8, 2010
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I went to the game. I got a few death stares from people around me when I cheered for the Broncos. Pretty sure if I wasnt with my daughter I would have had some more issues with fans lol .
Cool! How did you like Filmon’s game? Anything that stuck out to you live?
 

Eggtimer

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Jul 4, 2011
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Calgary Alberta
Cool! How did you like Filmon’s game? Anything that stuck out to you live?
Nothimg really that stands out besides he is very good at finding the quiet spots on the ice to get good shots off. He is a scrawny beanpole lol. I tried to focus on him shift by shift but it was tricky when having a 7 year old with you lol. His skating was better than I thought he would have.

Nope. He is either New Jersey or Swift Current next season. And he is not strong enough for the NHL.
Ya no way he can play in NJ or even Utica (if he was eligible but he is not). He needs to put some meat on his bones.
 

devilsblood

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Mar 10, 2010
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yeah we have a long time to wait for this kid to see if he's the real deal, hopefully this isn't just a fluky season and he builds on it
He was the teams leading goal scorer last year, he was the teams leading goal scorer this year.

This year's numbers are certainly lofty, but I don't think flukey. Team comes back next year, likely with most all the key contributors returning. Filmon will likely work on getting stronger in the offseason. I expect a big year #'s wise again. Though maybe a bit more assist heavy.
 
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Triumph

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Oct 2, 2007
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He was the teams leading goal scorer last year, he was the teams leading goal scorer this year.

This year's numbers are certainly lofty, but I don't think flukey. Team comes back next year, likely with most all the key contributors returning. Filmon will likely work on getting stronger in the offseason. I expect a big year #'s wise again. Though maybe a bit more assist heavy.

It's definitely fluky, though I suppose it depends on how you define fluky. Obviously what explains most of his goal scoring is opportunity and skill - he's a very good player and he's used heavily on PP1.

Scorers of 35 or more goals in the WHL shooting percentage:

Bedard: 19.7%
Uchacz: 22.5%
Berezowski: 17.8%
Wheatcroft: 17.3%
Filmon: 22.8%
McLennon: 18.9%
Ziemmer: 18.1%
Firkus: 16.3%
Sikorov: 16.3%
Calvert: 18.9%
Hofer: 14.4%
Cristall: 17.9%
Savoie: 15.3%
Suzdalev: 24.7%
Davidson: 13.3%
Lisowsky: 16.0%
Bankier: 17.8%
Thorpe: 16.7%
Benson: 18.6%
Howe: 24.1%
Geekie: 19.9%
Klassen: 13.1%

Eyeballing the rest of the list, there's a few other guys over 20%, but Filmon's shooting percentage is almost certainly top 10 in the league among qualified players. The shooting percentage leaders in the NHL tend to be a list of different people every year with the best guys appearing multiple times over their careers - while I would expect Filmon to be near the top again, there's nothing that says he definitely will be, and it's extremely unlikely he's this much better than the majority of his peers.

Long story short, if he plays 65 games next season, I expect him to score around 40-45 goals. He'll need a real jump in shot rate to go farther.
 
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devilsblood

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Mar 10, 2010
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It's definitely fluky, though I suppose it depends on how you define fluky. Obviously what explains most of his goal scoring is opportunity and skill - he's a very good player and he's used heavily on PP1.

Scorers of 35 or more goals in the WHL shooting percentage:

Bedard: 19.7%
Uchacz: 22.5%
Berezowski: 17.8%
Wheatcroft: 17.3%
Filmon: 22.8%
McLennon: 18.9%
Ziemmer: 18.1%
Firkus: 16.3%
Sikorov: 16.3%
Calvert: 18.9%
Hofer: 14.4%
Cristall: 17.9%
Savoie: 15.3%
Suzdalev: 24.7%
Davidson: 13.3%
Lisowsky: 16.0%
Bankier: 17.8%
Thorpe: 16.7%
Benson: 18.6%
Howe: 24.1%
Geekie: 19.9%
Klassen: 13.1%

Eyeballing the rest of the list, there's a few other guys over 20%, but Filmon's shooting percentage is almost certainly top 10 in the league among qualified players. The shooting percentage leaders in the NHL tend to be a list of different people every year with the best guys appearing multiple times over their careers - while I would expect Filmon to be near the top again, there's nothing that says he definitely will be, and it's extremely unlikely he's this much better than the majority of his peers.

Long story short, if he plays 65 games next season, I expect him to score around 40-45 goals. He'll need a real jump in shot rate to go farther.
If u expect 40-45 next year then by definition you don’t see this year as flukey.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a trade in terms of higher shot rate for shooting %. Or even goals for assists.

But team fundamentals do suggest he should have another big season next year.
 
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Devils731

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Jun 23, 2008
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If u expect 40-45 next year then by definition you don’t see this year as flukey.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a trade in terms of higher shot rate for shooting %. Or even goals for assists.

But team fundamentals do suggest he should have another big season next year.
For most guys that will go into the NHL, you expect to see some to a lot of additional production each year.

So if his goal scoring stays the same next year then this year would be flukey because his high shooting percentage put his goal scoring onto a level higher than his norm.

There is sort of a soft “max” a player can hit and Filmon is probably close to that level with goals, so maybe it’s a little unfair to expect improvement. I think it still goes back to his shooting percentage being high as being a little fluky.

The bloom would probably be off of Filmon a little bit if he scores 40 goals next year in a full season.
 
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Triumph

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Oct 2, 2007
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If u expect 40-45 next year then by definition you don’t see this year as flukey.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a trade in terms of higher shot rate for shooting %. Or even goals for assists.

But team fundamentals do suggest he should have another big season next year.

I think the bars on fluke seasons are pretty narrow. Seldom do you see a player fluke their way into a great season only to not be any good next year, especially in junior hockey where the competition gets younger the more you age. Even Angelo Esposito, whose great D-1 season looks to be a product of Alex Radulov and who fell from a consensus top 5 pick to 20th overall, was still managing nearly .7 goals per game in his final junior season. That was the last time he had exceptional production outside of the Italian league.

So yeah, I think Filmon's expectation was to score in the mid to high 30s this season and he instead scored 47. Likewise, I think his expectation is to score mid 40s next season.
 

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