Prospect Info: #166 Overall, LW Josh Filmon, Swift Current WHL

[devilsblood]

For most guys that will go into the NHL, you expect to see some to a lot of additional production each year.

So if his goal scoring stays the same next year then this year would be flukey because his high shooting percentage put his goal scoring onto a level higher than his norm.

There is sort of a soft “max” a player can hit and Filmon is probably close to that level with goals, so maybe it’s a little unfair to expect improvement. I think it still goes back to his shooting percentage being high as being a little fluky.

The bloom would probably be off of Filmon a little bit if he scores 40 goals next year in a full season.

If he scores 40 next year but gets more sog’s and assists then im more then happy.

 

[Devils731]

If he scores 40 next year but gets more sog’s and assists then im more then happy.

That’s why I hedged on basing it just on goals.

If he scores 40 but appears to round out his game then there can still be good improvement in his season.

 

[devilsblood]

I think the bars on fluke seasons are pretty narrow. Seldom do you see a player fluke their way into a great season only to not be any good next year, especially in junior hockey where the competition gets younger the more you age. Even Angelo Esposito, whose great D-1 season looks to be a product of Alex Radulov and who fell from a consensus top 5 pick to 20th overall, was still managing nearly .7 goals per game in his final junior season. That was the last time he had exceptional production outside of the Italian league.

So yeah, I think Filmon's expectation was to score in the mid to high 30s this season and he instead scored 47. Likewise, I think his expectation is to score mid 40s next season.

But does Filmon exceeding expectations make it flukey?


Even if we knock his shooting% down to 18% hes still at around 40 goals which would still be a great year from a 6th rounder.

I also like how consistent he was with his goal scoring this year. Which to me tamps down the fluke talk.

That’s why I hedged on basing it just on goals.

If he scores 40 but appears to round out his game then there can still be good improvement in his season.

Ya maybe plays more pk or just is trusted in defensive situations.

And in addition to getting stronger i bet workings on his skating will be a theme this offseason.

 

[Triumph]

But does Filmon exceeding expectations make it flukey?


Even if we knock his shooting% down to 18% hes still at around 40 goals which would still be a great year from a 6th rounder.

I also like how consistent he was with his goal scoring this year. Which to me tamps down the fluke talk.


Ya maybe plays more pk or just is trusted in defensive situations.

And in addition to getting stronger i bet workings on his skating will be a theme this offseason.

18% is still a very high shooting percentage, look at all the percentages I posted, and those are of the top scorers in the league. He shot 13% last year, if he had done so this year that's 27 goals. An improvement but not much of one.

I don't know how shooting percentage works with age in junior, my guess is that it goes up for two reasons A: improvement in skill and B: being used more on the power play. I don't think it usually goes up by 80%+, though.

I don't care about Filmon being a sixth round pick. Obviously he had a phenomenal D+1 season for a sixth round pick, the best I can remember in 20+ years of following Devils prospects, but that has no bearing on what he is now or what he becomes.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I don't care about Filmon being a sixth round pick. Obviously he had a phenomenal D+1 season for a sixth round pick, the best I can remember in 20+ years of following Devils prospects, but that has no bearing on what he is now or what he becomes.

Sorta reminds me of the days when the fanbase was counting on Artur Gavrus and Reece Scarlett to help right the ship. What's Ryan Kujawinski up to?

 

[My3Sons]

Sorta reminds me of the days when the fanbase was counting on Artur Gavrus and Reece Scarlett to help right the ship. What's Ryan Kujawinski up to?

Except this staff has found Shara and Bratt in late rounds.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Except this staff has found Shara and Bratt in late rounds.

The late round drafting is night and day compared to the final decade of Lou and Conte's disasterpiece. Even if Filmon doesn't work out, he's more proof that the Shero/Fitz regime is targeting the right type of players in later rounds.

 

[devilsblood]

18% is still a very high shooting percentage, look at all the percentages I posted, and those are of the top scorers in the league. He shot 13% last year, if he had done so this year that's 27 goals. An improvement but not much of one.

I don't know how shooting percentage works with age in junior, my guess is that it goes up for two reasons A: improvement in skill and B: being used more on the power play. I don't think it usually goes up by 80%+, though.

I don't care about Filmon being a sixth round pick. Obviously he had a phenomenal D+1 season for a sixth round pick, the best I can remember in 20+ years of following Devils prospects, but that has no bearing on what he is now or what he becomes.

You were talking about expectations, how does where he was drafted not play into that? Especially in his D+1 year.

As per shooting %, given he was the leading goal scorer last year, I imagine he played a bunch on the top PP unit last year. I think the big jump in shooting is due him improving, but also the team around him maturing. A very young team last year, more mature this year. Think most of the key guys will be back next year as well, so next year should be a older then average team, especially amongst it's key guys. Need the goal tending to improve, but that should be a pretty good team next year.

 

[FooteBahl]

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

 

[Lou is God]

Phenom? Okay lol

 

[Better Call Sal]

Awesome, can't wait to see him get some reps in Utica. Can't help but be impressed with what he's done in juniors.

 

[Devs3cups]

Awesome, can't wait to see him get some reps in Utica. Can't help but be impressed with what he's done in juniors.

WJC next year maybe?

 

[Mgd31]

Sweet

 

[Triumph]

You were talking about expectations, how does where he was drafted not play into that? Especially in his D+1 year.

Where he was drafted is merely a reflection of his stats from his D0 and D-1 years - I consider the stats more salient than the draft position. If we knew Filmon got 206 shots in his D+1, we wouldn't've expected him to score 47 goals.

As per shooting %, given he was the leading goal scorer last year, I imagine he played a bunch on the top PP unit last year. I think the big jump in shooting is due him improving, but also the team around him maturing. A very young team last year, more mature this year. Think most of the key guys will be back next year as well, so next year should be a older then average team, especially amongst it's key guys. Need the goal tending to improve, but that should be a pretty good team next year.

It's also due to luck. But that's the last I'll say on this.

 

[MartyOwns]

The late round drafting is night and day compared to the final decade of Lou and Conte's disasterpiece. Even if Filmon doesn't work out, he's more proof that the Shero/Fitz regime is targeting the right type of players in later rounds.

so is the early round drafting. john quenneville, indeed.

 

[Darkauron]

Nice. Hope he gets a few games in the ahl and does well. He is a very electrifying prospect so far

 

[Clam Jensen]

Phenom? Okay lol

If he’s a phenom than Bedard literally walks on water lol.

 

[OmNomNom]

maybe he'll pack on another 20lb of muscle this summer, right

 

[Blackjack]

Congrats to Josh, must be absolutely incredible to go from being a sixth round pick to signing an ELC less than a year later.

 

[OmNomNom]

 

[Billdo]

Phenom? Okay lol

That's cringe exaggeration and why I dislike most of our fan blogs, groups, etc

maybe he'll pack on another 20lb of muscle this summer, right

I'm just hoping he doesn't get snapped in half playing in the A.

 

[Triumph]

Awesome, can't wait to see him get some reps in Utica. Can't help but be impressed with what he's done in juniors.

To be fair, I'm not sure he will play much in Utica - he did just turn 19 years old. Reid Boucher's team got eliminated March 30th in 2012 and he only managed to get in the final game of the season on April 15. But also they've had personnel issues up there and they might be desperate.

 

[Saugus]

I hope some of his offense translates to the professional level, but we'll see. Would be nice to have another late round gem emerge out of nowhere.

 

[Better Call Sal]

He is a string bean you gotta figure he's gonna need to put on some muscle to really make it at the pro level if his 6'1", 159 lbs. frame is accurate per Elite Prospects.