GDT: #14 | Flyers at Lightning | Thursday, November 7, 2024 | 7:00 PM | ESPN+/Hulu

[blackjackmulligan]

It's hard to change scouting and development overnight.
For one thing, a lot of people you'd want to hire are on contract or want to stay where they are.

Fletcher did start making changes and increase resources for development and analytics, they have invested a lot of money upgrading Voorhees. Fletcher was probably better suited to be President with a good GM. He was an upgrade over Holmgren as President, b/c he at least understood you had to build an organization - Holmgren was a true Dino who thought "only he could fix it."

CF wasn't an upgrade over anyone. All I see is excuses.

Flyers have plenty of $$$. No excuse not to have top of the line staff.

 

[deadhead]

CF wasn't an upgrade over anyone. All I see is excuses.

Flyers have plenty of $$$. No excuse not to have top of the line staff.

You won't know if they've upgraded for a few years.
When the Phillies hired Klentak, they made a bunch of changes, which mostly failed to pay off.
Then the next group came in and built upon the first wave.

And just b/c you fix one aspect . . . Carolina improved their pro personnel decision making, but so far, their drafting has gotten worse.

Of course, it's also difficult to separate out decisions from the noise, that is, are you making bad decisions or just the victim of bad luck.

Which is why good process is better than good results in the short run - because it's easy to be fooled by SSS and make bad decisions based on bad data.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

You won't know if they've upgraded for a few years.
When the Phillies hired Klentak, they made a bunch of changes, which mostly failed to pay off.
Then the next group came in and built upon the first wave.

And just b/c you fix one aspect . . . Carolina improved their pro personnel decision making, but so far, their drafting has gotten worse.

Of course, it's also difficult to separate out decisions from the noise, that is, are you making bad decisions or just the victim of bad luck.

Which is why good process is better than good results in the short run - because it's easy to be fooled by SSS and make bad decisions based on bad data.

We are talking about the Flyers and that is what matters. Everything else is white noise and you're deflecting.

The Flyers do a not do a good a job overall. Where did they upgrade the scouting and development?

Serious question. Do the Flyers pay you? Do you go on other sites and defend them as well? If they don't make up a resume as you may be able to make some coin off your post. I bet you and "Jonesy" would be best buds.

 

[deadhead]

We are talking about the Flyers and that is what matters. Everything else is white noise and you're deflecting.

The Flyers do a not do a good a job overall. Where did they upgrade the scouting and development?

Serious question. Do the Flyers pay you? Do you go on other sites and defend them as well? If they don't make up a resume as you may be able to make some coin off your post. I bet you and "Jonesy" would be best buds.

I don't see the world in black and white terms. Sports, politics or history.

If someone does something good, I try to credit them, but also try to separate good decisions from lucky decisions.

if they do something bad, I'll criticize but also want to understand WHY they made a mistake, sometimes the reasoning is good but the result is bad, sometimes it's just bad judgement.

Group think is very strong around here these days, critical analysis not so much.
When you start with a conclusion, there is nothing to discuss.

Most decisions in business and sports are implicitly based on a perception of probability distributions, that is, what is the most likely outcome? And with insufficient or contradictory information, that's often a guessing game. "All models are wrong, some models are useful." We never really understand the underlying model, we just try to infer it from available data.

Process is really about how you determine and influence those probability distributions.
Judgement is how you utilize those distributions (are you risk adverse/perverse? Do you optimize expected value or weigh decisions toward maximizing value at higher risk).

 

[BernieParent]

The funniest outcome is the Flyers winning. And then going on a winning streak. And Tortorella refuses to change the lineup. By funny I mean hellish.

Catching up on this thread and we have a winner here. You're getting pretty lethal with the jinx posts, Magua!

 

[ponder719]

The funniest outcome is the Flyers winning. And then going on a winning streak. And Tortorella refuses to change the lineup. By funny I mean hellish.

Damn it, next time say the funniest outcome is Tortorella getting his beard caught in the grille of the EBUG's mask or something, that way at least we'd have an amusing visual to go with the hellish dystopia part.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I don't see the world in black and white terms. Sports, politics or history.

If someone does something good, I try to credit them, but also try to separate good decisions from lucky decisions.

if they do something bad, I'll criticize but also want to understand WHY they made a mistake, sometimes the reasoning is good but the result is bad, sometimes it's just bad judgement.

Group think is very strong around here these days, critical analysis not so much.
When you start with a conclusion, there is nothing to discuss.

Most decisions in business and sports are implicitly based on a perception of probability distributions, that is, what is the most likely outcome? And with insufficient or contradictory information, that's often a guessing game. "All models are wrong, some models are useful." We never really understand the underlying model, we just try to infer it from available data.

Process is really about how you determine and influence those probability distributions.
Judgement is how you utilize those distributions (are you risk adverse/perverse? Do you optimize expected value or weigh decisions toward maximizing value at higher risk).

The most likely outcome is the Flyers still spinning their wheels. Not contending in the next 5 years or anytime soon.

Do you think Torst will be the coach for the 2025-2026 season to start? What is the most likely scenario in your opinion.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I don't see the world in black and white terms. Sports, politics or history.

If someone does something good, I try to credit them, but also try to separate good decisions from lucky decisions.

if they do something bad, I'll criticize but also want to understand WHY they made a mistake, sometimes the reasoning is good but the result is bad, sometimes it's just bad judgement.

Group think is very strong around here these days, critical analysis not so much.
When you start with a conclusion, there is nothing to discuss.

Most decisions in business and sports are implicitly based on a perception of probability distributions, that is, what is the most likely outcome? And with insufficient or contradictory information, that's often a guessing game. "All models are wrong, some models are useful." We never really understand the underlying model, we just try to infer it from available data.

Process is really about how you determine and influence those probability distributions.
Judgement is how you utilize those distributions (are you risk adverse/perverse? Do you optimize expected value or weigh decisions toward maximizing value at higher risk).

Which is why I focus so hard on things we know are wrong like positional drafting or basing meaningful decisions on projecting the relative strength of the 25th pick in a draft that’s 18 months away.

I don’t have any idea whether Luchanko is going to be a better player than Buium. No one does. But I know their logic is so faulty that it should be concerning.