GDT: #14 | Flyers at Lightning | Thursday, November 7, 2024 | 7:00 PM | ESPN+/Hulu

[blackjackmulligan]

It's hard to change scouting and development overnight.
For one thing, a lot of people you'd want to hire are on contract or want to stay where they are.

Fletcher did start making changes and increase resources for development and analytics, they have invested a lot of money upgrading Voorhees. Fletcher was probably better suited to be President with a good GM. He was an upgrade over Holmgren as President, b/c he at least understood you had to build an organization - Holmgren was a true Dino who thought "only he could fix it."

CF wasn't an upgrade over anyone. All I see is excuses.

Flyers have plenty of $$$. No excuse not to have top of the line staff.

 

[deadhead]

CF wasn't an upgrade over anyone. All I see is excuses.

Flyers have plenty of $$$. No excuse not to have top of the line staff.

You won't know if they've upgraded for a few years.
When the Phillies hired Klentak, they made a bunch of changes, which mostly failed to pay off.
Then the next group came in and built upon the first wave.

And just b/c you fix one aspect . . . Carolina improved their pro personnel decision making, but so far, their drafting has gotten worse.

Of course, it's also difficult to separate out decisions from the noise, that is, are you making bad decisions or just the victim of bad luck.

Which is why good process is better than good results in the short run - because it's easy to be fooled by SSS and make bad decisions based on bad data.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

You won't know if they've upgraded for a few years.
When the Phillies hired Klentak, they made a bunch of changes, which mostly failed to pay off.
Then the next group came in and built upon the first wave.

And just b/c you fix one aspect . . . Carolina improved their pro personnel decision making, but so far, their drafting has gotten worse.

Of course, it's also difficult to separate out decisions from the noise, that is, are you making bad decisions or just the victim of bad luck.

Which is why good process is better than good results in the short run - because it's easy to be fooled by SSS and make bad decisions based on bad data.

We are talking about the Flyers and that is what matters. Everything else is white noise and you're deflecting.

The Flyers do a not do a good a job overall. Where did they upgrade the scouting and development?

Serious question. Do the Flyers pay you? Do you go on other sites and defend them as well? If they don't make up a resume as you may be able to make some coin off your post. I bet you and "Jonesy" would be best buds.

 

[deadhead]

We are talking about the Flyers and that is what matters. Everything else is white noise and you're deflecting.

The Flyers do a not do a good a job overall. Where did they upgrade the scouting and development?

Serious question. Do the Flyers pay you? Do you go on other sites and defend them as well? If they don't make up a resume as you may be able to make some coin off your post. I bet you and "Jonesy" would be best buds.

I don't see the world in black and white terms. Sports, politics or history.

If someone does something good, I try to credit them, but also try to separate good decisions from lucky decisions.

if they do something bad, I'll criticize but also want to understand WHY they made a mistake, sometimes the reasoning is good but the result is bad, sometimes it's just bad judgement.

Group think is very strong around here these days, critical analysis not so much.
When you start with a conclusion, there is nothing to discuss.

Most decisions in business and sports are implicitly based on a perception of probability distributions, that is, what is the most likely outcome? And with insufficient or contradictory information, that's often a guessing game. "All models are wrong, some models are useful." We never really understand the underlying model, we just try to infer it from available data.

Process is really about how you determine and influence those probability distributions.
Judgement is how you utilize those distributions (are you risk adverse/perverse? Do you optimize expected value or weigh decisions toward maximizing value at higher risk).

 

[BernieParent]

The funniest outcome is the Flyers winning. And then going on a winning streak. And Tortorella refuses to change the lineup. By funny I mean hellish.

Catching up on this thread and we have a winner here. You're getting pretty lethal with the jinx posts, Magua!

 

[ponder719]

The funniest outcome is the Flyers winning. And then going on a winning streak. And Tortorella refuses to change the lineup. By funny I mean hellish.

Damn it, next time say the funniest outcome is Tortorella getting his beard caught in the grille of the EBUG's mask or something, that way at least we'd have an amusing visual to go with the hellish dystopia part.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I don't see the world in black and white terms. Sports, politics or history.

If someone does something good, I try to credit them, but also try to separate good decisions from lucky decisions.

if they do something bad, I'll criticize but also want to understand WHY they made a mistake, sometimes the reasoning is good but the result is bad, sometimes it's just bad judgement.

Group think is very strong around here these days, critical analysis not so much.
When you start with a conclusion, there is nothing to discuss.

Most decisions in business and sports are implicitly based on a perception of probability distributions, that is, what is the most likely outcome? And with insufficient or contradictory information, that's often a guessing game. "All models are wrong, some models are useful." We never really understand the underlying model, we just try to infer it from available data.

Process is really about how you determine and influence those probability distributions.
Judgement is how you utilize those distributions (are you risk adverse/perverse? Do you optimize expected value or weigh decisions toward maximizing value at higher risk).

The most likely outcome is the Flyers still spinning their wheels. Not contending in the next 5 years or anytime soon.

Do you think Torst will be the coach for the 2025-2026 season to start? What is the most likely scenario in your opinion.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I don't see the world in black and white terms. Sports, politics or history.

If someone does something good, I try to credit them, but also try to separate good decisions from lucky decisions.

if they do something bad, I'll criticize but also want to understand WHY they made a mistake, sometimes the reasoning is good but the result is bad, sometimes it's just bad judgement.

Group think is very strong around here these days, critical analysis not so much.
When you start with a conclusion, there is nothing to discuss.

Most decisions in business and sports are implicitly based on a perception of probability distributions, that is, what is the most likely outcome? And with insufficient or contradictory information, that's often a guessing game. "All models are wrong, some models are useful." We never really understand the underlying model, we just try to infer it from available data.

Process is really about how you determine and influence those probability distributions.
Judgement is how you utilize those distributions (are you risk adverse/perverse? Do you optimize expected value or weigh decisions toward maximizing value at higher risk).

Which is why I focus so hard on things we know are wrong like positional drafting or basing meaningful decisions on projecting the relative strength of the 25th pick in a draft that’s 18 months away.

I don’t have any idea whether Luchanko is going to be a better player than Buium. No one does. But I know their logic is so faulty that it should be concerning. That’s a much better indicator of future performance than one draft pick.

 

[Rebels57]

Had to be a confidence booster for Fedotov.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Had to be a confidence booster for Fedotov.

You know, I wanted to see if he celebrated the win at his end of the ice when they won in the shootout, but no one caught shit.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

You know, I wanted to see if he celebrated the win at his end of the ice when they won in the shootout, but no one caught shit.

 

[deadhead]

The most likely outcome is the Flyers still spinning their wheels. Not contending in the next 5 years or anytime soon.

Do you think Torst will be the coach for the 2025-2026 season to start? What is the most likely scenario in your opinion.

I think they're very happy with Torts, for a number of reasons.

1) winning is not the goal, player development is, and Torts stresses fundamentals but has been very patient with the young players. Patience doesn't mean hands off, it means don't over react.
2) Torts is installing an up tempo, forechecking scheme similar to Carolina, that's what Briere wants, and he's drafting for it.
3) Torts does not suppress offense, Briere was an undersized offense first forward who maximized his talent, if he thought Torts was the issue on offense he'd step in. Briere understands offense far more than Holmgren or Hextall did.

I think they're pleasantly surprised with how much Torts has mellowed.
He's still honest to a fault, but his press conferences have been level headed, no tantrums, no attempts to strangle so-called "reporters."

They don't expect to contend until 2027-28 or so, if making the playoffs was a priority, Briere would have made some moves to improve their chances.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Thanks for that. I couldn't find it anywhere. Yeah, that seems like a big weight was lifted off him mentally with that.

 

[flyersnorth]

I get what you mean.

For me personally, it’s not about half measures or starting a Crusade over the term rebuilding. There are two major related problems with allowing Michkov’s presence to give me hope. First is Briere’s answer to Charlie’s Buium question because it’s indefensible logic.

100%. It didn't add up.

I like Luchanko just fine, but it definitely felt like they passed up a superior talent in favour of someone that fit a position of need.

Maybe they end up being right, but to your point, they would end up being right because of luck and general unpredictability of outcomes, not because the process was sound.

But more importantly, it’s the organizational arrogance that to me is their hallmark through 5 front office generations. The idea that the Flyers stocked up on the 2025 draft years in advance and were perfectly fine taking less traditional value to do so means that from the very top, they have no idea of their own limitations. This is one issue that doesn’t change no matter your field.

Arrogance kills one holy hell of a lot more careers than it makes. Maybe it’ll work this time. Outliers do exist. But probably not.

Often it feels like they fully recognize the problem, and in some ways, the solution - or at least steps required to get there. Need more talent, draft is best place to find it, not focused on playoffs, need to rebuild the pipeline to create a sustainably competitive franchise, goal is Stanley Cup, not just playoffs, etc.

Then in the same breath, they appear unwilling to take the actions that would lead them there (trade, say, one of Sanheim, Laughton, or Konecny), and often take actions that are almost in direct contradiction (Hathaway, first day extension).

Again, it may work out, but not because the process was necessarily sound.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Thanks for that. I couldn't find it anywhere. Yeah, that seems like a big weight was lifted off him mentally with that.

No problem. It was sourced from this Twitter post if you care also.

 

[deadhead]

I don't buy Buium was too small, he was 6'0 186 at the combine, will probably end up 200+ lbs when it's all said and done. That's substantially bigger than York, Andrae or Drysdale.

Briere pretty much said they had Buium and Luchanko in similar tiers, they probably saw Buium as the better player, but Luchanko had more upside due to his age and lack of experience.

I think it's more about Luchanko being the fit to the style of play they want to implement, an up tempo aggressive forecheck. A fast high IQ center can cover for the other four on the ice and allow them to take more risks on offense.

I also think D-men like Buium are easier to find, Parkeh in the same draft, Huston, etc.
It's easier to find a top offensive D-man than a top center or physical mobile two way D-men.

The strategy is valid, if Luchanko is the same tier as Buium.
The question is whether their evaluation of their relative talent is valid.