Salary Cap: 11 guys signed next year at $65.5M CAP - $16M left for 12 guys

[Dekes For Days]

Lets say they vote on no raise next year. That has no impact on the cap?

Then the rise would be 0.5% of revenue lower than last year, all else equal. The cap would still rise overall.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Still torn on who to trade AJ or Kap

Why not both? Both are pretty disappointing this year IMO. I like what I see in Engvall, Mikheyev and Moore. Timashov seems like a maybe. The lines practically fill themselves out just fine without Johnsson and Kapanen.

Literally the only reason I keep either of them is because Kapanen is RW and we have such a glut at LW. But to save an extra $3.2M to try to build a new D-corp, I'm happy to move Kapanen as well and either call someone up from the Marlies or move one of our current lefties to the right side.

 

[KuleminFan41]

Is there another team this bad ?

11 players 65 million

It's not as bad as people think. Mikheyev(925k), Engvall(925k), Timashov(695k) , Dermott(683k), and Gauthier(675k) are all RFA's that likely wont cost you a ton to retain them. Holl(675k) is someone I can't see getting that big of a pay increase either. Ceci likely goes freeing up a spot for Sandin and or Lilejgren who are on ELC's. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying its going to be easy to retain them all but it doesn't seem to me that most of the guys on expiring contracts will be that expensive to bring back. The real question mark is who gets brought back between Muzzin and Barrie

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

If they slow the cap growth the money will be returned to them the cap is too far ahead of revenue

You don’t slow cap growth, it’s just recalculated anew each year. It’s a calculation based on projected revenue for the upcoming year. There is nothing to slow.

Besides, if you just under-estimate revenue and suppress cap accordingly, then players who are up for new contracts will take the hit — next years contract renewals will pay for what all players would have “lost” to escrow due to underperforming revenue projections.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

We are still under an established CBA for the next few years. The only way players can influence the cap is with the escalator. They already barely used it last year, and we still saw a 2m increase. Some uneducated players don't like escrow, but the main problem for the NHLPA was how high it was pushing. It wasn't that escrow itself existed.

Even if you think the current negotiations will impact something, neither the owners nor the NHLPA will stagnate the cap. Owners don't want to lose their players. Players with negotiations coming up want to get paid. The only question is how much it goes up. As I already said, salaries are already lower this coming year because of fears of the lockout, so escrow will not be as big of an issue for next year. And in future years, we have significant factors that will push the cap up, to an extent that even if we shrink escrow down considerably, the cap will still go up considerably.

Escrow is a core part of the cap. It will exist, because players are being paid more than they should be. More than they both agreed upon. That 50/50 share isn't changing during this negotiation, that's for sure.

I think smaller market teams like the big market teams to get squeezed as much as possible.

This is what a general manager said after the announcement that the cap would be $81.5 m this year, lower than the original projection.

"It doesn't affect us, but I like it, it's going to squeeze some teams some more," Columbus Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen said. "They're going to have to solve their problems and maybe we can be a solution."

And from a numbers perspective, there are more smaller market teams than large.

I think owners know what they can afford to spend, and many small market teams are concerned about how high the cap floor will be. There is only so much elasticity in the revenues they can generate in their market, so rises in player salaries can outpace or increase faster than their ability to increase revenue.

When players have spoken about escrow, they seem to not like escrow. I never saw anything that suggested that just a few uneducated ones don't like it.

Given our circumstances (big market/deep pockets), I'm not sure we are as inclined to see the other side of the coin much despite the fact that it exists. Its a question of balance I'd think, but just because we ignore the other side of the scale, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think smaller market teams like the big market teams to get squeezed as much as possible.

If you hadn't checked recently, all teams are squeezed tight right now.

There's a reason so many players signed bridge deals this past off-season.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

If you hadn't checked recently, all teams are squeezed tight right now.

There's a reason so many players signed bridge deals this past off-season.

All - are you sure? From what I just saw, 20 teams are below the $81.5 m cap limit now according to CapFriendly (Projected Cap Hit column). 18 of them are lower than $80 m. 13 teams have $2 m or greater of Projected Cap Space.

 

[Dekes For Days]

All - are you sure? From what I just saw, 20 teams are below the $81.5 m cap limit now according to CapFriendly (Projected Cap Hit column). 18 of them are lower than $80 m. 13 teams have $2 m or greater of Projected Cap Space.

All teams are above the midpoint of the cap. Nobody has more than 6.4m in space, and all who have space have big contracts on the horizon. Multiple teams are surviving off LTIR. There is some of the least cap space available in the system that we have ever seen.

The chance of the cap stagnating and not rising at all is literally 0%.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Most people believe Nylander will be the body to get moved. and I would assume in any Nylander move. cap will be coming back our way unless it's for straight Futures. I believe we are going to see some names go we really dont wanna see moved.
I would assume Matthews/Marner/JT will not be moved no matter what.
I guess that means most likely Nylander + Mango + Kerfoot being moved and and replaced with incoming marlies?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

All teams are above the midpoint of the cap. Nobody has more than 6.4m in space, and all who have space have big contracts on the horizon. Multiple teams are surviving off LTIR. There is some of the least cap space available in the system that we have ever seen.

The chance of the cap stagnating and not rising at all is literally 0%.

13 teams have between $2.1 to $6.3 m of Projected Cap Space. 17 teams have between $2.7 to $11.4 m of Current Cap Space.

I didn't say anything about the cap not going up at all! However, its quite possible, and perhaps likely, that we'll see a small increase this year like we did last year for the same reasons, namely escrow.

Everything I said in #255 is true.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I didn't say anything about the cap not going up at all! However, its quite possible, and perhaps likely, that we'll see a small increase this year like we did last year for the same reasons, namely escrow.

It's possible, though unlikely from everything we know, that we will see a similar increase to last year. It's overwhelmingly obvious that in years after that, the cap will rise significantly.

Even if they wanted to and could, it makes no sense to stagnate the cap and then have a huge jump in a couple years. Everybody involved likes consistent growth.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

It's possible, though unlikely from everything we know, that we will see a similar increase to last year. It's overwhelmingly obvious that in years after that, the cap will rise significantly.

Even if they wanted to and could, it makes no sense to stagnate the cap and then have a huge jump in a couple years. Everybody involved likes consistent growth.

I think owners of small and medium market teams will always have a concern about expenses and revenue just as you would expect from any business owner. So, whatever happens, what I just said will be at the root of it. Owners will want growth in direct proportion to profit, whether that's consistent growth or not.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Most people believe Nylander will be the body to get moved. and I would assume in any Nylander move. cap will be coming back our way unless it's for straight Futures. I believe we are going to see some names go we really dont wanna see moved.
I would assume Matthews/Marner/JT will not be moved no matter what.
I guess that means most likely Nylander + Mango + Kerfoot being moved and and replaced with incoming marlies?

I don't think there are any prospects in the system that can replace Nylander, other than maybe Roberston and SDA, who are both at least 2-3 years away from making the jump. We can replace Johnsson, Kapanen and Ceci though, so I'd definitely move on from them. That's 11 + million cap freed up, with guys like Bracco, Korkshov, Marchment, Brooks ready to make the jump.

- Trade Kapanen + Ceci (50% off) for Fabbro (D) + Ingram (G). He's an excellent top-4 RHD rookie, but Nashville will have to make a big decision soon as they can't protect all of Josi/Ekholm/Ellis/Fabbro during the Seattle expansion draft. Ingram is also a 22 year old goalie who's been great in the AHL. With Saros as the future starter and Rinne being the backup for at least 2 years, Ingram is expendable and could be a great backup for us.

- Trade Johnsson for Lias Andersson. He's a very skilled, determined Swedish center who's been disappointing with the Rangers, but we may easily be able to develop in the AHL. Gives us the very much needed center prospect depth, and gives us the option of shipping out Kerfoot's 3.5M contract in the future if needed, even though it's a good contract.

So...
In: Fabbro + Ingram + Anderssen
Out: Johnsson + Kapanen + Ceci
Benefits: Gain a future top-4 big RHD, get a solid goalie prospect who can be a potentially good backup right now, and gain a project center who can be developed to reach his true top-6 potential.

Hyman - Matthews - Marner [20 - 21 minutes]
Moore - Tavares - Nylander [18 - 19 minutes]
Engvall - Kerfoot - Mikheyev [14 - 15 minutes]
Timashov - Gauthier - Spezza [5 - 8 minutes]

Muzzin - Holl [22 minutes]
Rielly - Barrie [22 minutes]
Dermott - Fabbro [16 minutes]

Andersen
Ingram

 

[supsens]

It's possible, though unlikely from everything we know, that we will see a similar increase to last year. It's overwhelmingly obvious that in years after that, the cap will rise significantly.

Even if they wanted to and could, it makes no sense to stagnate the cap and then have a huge jump in a couple years. Everybody involved likes consistent growth.

It’s not a huge jump the players are already taking over 50% that’s why they lose the escrow. The cap staying close to the same would result in all players under current contract reviving more money

 

[BM14]

Clearly will be a lot of bargain bin depth signings and Marlies call ups.

Reasonable to project Sandin and Liljegren will be on the team. Korshkov potentially as well.

Timashov, Engvall, and Holl should be had for $1 mill or under.

Goat too but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s traded at the same time.

Dermott and Soup should tie up no more than $6 mill.

That leaves $5 mill or so to shore up the back up and the final d spot on the roster.

I wouldn't be shocked if Dermott is packaged with a KAP/AJ to secure a piece.

 

[81Leafs50]

The players are losing 10% on escrow and are upset, Im not sure the cap will go up much at all over the next couple of years. It would take a doubling of the TV contract and 200 million in betting to get them out of escrow and I think there goal is to not be paing escrow.
I would think its going to be minimum cap raises untill all these final numbers are in.

you have no clue what you are talking about. Read up on escrow.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Maybe we sign only 9 guys for minimum roster for the $16M????
Which guys do we sign and how do we make an official roster with $16M??? (assuming no trades)
I tried late last night on CapFriendly and I had a difficult time.
I assumed we signed Mik2M, Dermy3M and Holl1M and could not afford Muzzy's 5M.
Lots of very interesting questions???
Great news is we have a great team this year and in middle of a nice heater now.

Lets try that NEW MATH they are teaching our kids in school these days.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Probably just fold the team.

Apply for an expansion franchise & have 2 Toronto teams.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Most people believe Nylander will be the body to get moved. and I would assume in any Nylander move. cap will be coming back our way unless it's for straight Futures. I believe we are going to see some names go we really dont wanna see moved.
I would assume Matthews/Marner/JT will not be moved no matter what.
I guess that means most likely Nylander + Mango + Kerfoot being moved and and replaced with incoming marlies?

Most people have a hate on for Nylander for no great reasons.

Most people want Nylander moved for those "reasons".

I dont think many of them actually think it will happen. Could be wrong though.

 

[supsens]

you have no clue what you are talking about. Read up on escrow.

Perhaps you should read up on escrow the last report I read says they forfit on average 10% of their pay to escrow the last 5 years.
Meaning the current contracts are taking up over 50% of escrow.
10% of 2billion or whatever there half is now.

CBC and TSN both report this, how do you think escrow works?
I think you have no clue what I am talking about, that does not mean I don’t know what is being said.

That being said the issue is from a loop hole that the NHLPA missed and I am not sure how they fix it.
They assumed 10 teams would cap, ten would middle, ten teams would floor. Now once they hit that mark and the players were at 50%..... the bottom 20 teams all added 3 million, so that’s 60 million the players are over their half, divide that by the 30 teams and pow. All the players on each team lose 2 million. Meaning the owners of the 20 teams are adding a 3 million dollar player only paying 1 million themselves and making escrow pay the other 2 million. The ten teams at the cap ceiling just pocket the 2 million
And then they did it again......
That’s not exact math but you get the point
So making the cap bigger just means more money comes from escrow. Because the players are already taking well over 50% with current contracts.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Perhaps you should read up on escrow the last report I read says they forfit on average 10% of their pay to escrow the last 5 years.
Meaning the current contracts are taking up over 50% of escrow.
10% of 2billion or whatever there half is now.

CBC and TSN both report this, how do you think escrow works?
I think you have no clue what I am talking about, that does not mean I don’t know what is being said.

That being said the issue is from a loop hole that the NHLPA missed and I am not sure how they fix it.
They assumed 10 teams would cap, ten would middle, ten teams would floor. Now once they hit that mark and the players were at 50%..... the bottom 20 teams all added 3 million, so that’s 60 million the players are over their half, divide that by the 30 teams and pow. All the players on each team lose 2 million. Meaning the owners of the 20 teams are adding a 3 million dollar player only paying 1 million themselves and making escrow pay the other 2 million. The ten teams at the cap ceiling just pocket the 2 million
And then they did it again......
That’s not exact math but you get the point
So making the cap bigger just means more money comes from escrow. Because the players are already taking well over 50% with current contracts.

That's sounds roughly correct. The issue is with the way the cap is calculated. The 50/50 split mark is halfway between the cap and the floor. I can't recall if that was a good mark first when the cap came out but it no longer is because more teams are spending near the cap. Escrow is inevitable in a system where the revenue isn't know until after the fact, but they absolutely could reduce it by changing the way they set the cap where the 50/50 split is closer to the ceiling and further away from the floor. Maybe at the 3/4 mark instead of the halfway mark.

I think the issue some of the other posters had were you seemed to insinuate the players can do anything about it when you said it won't go up in the next couple years. The current CBA runs for 3 more years so the only thing the players can do for the next 3 years is to go from the 0.5% inflator they're currently using to a 0% inflator. The cap will still go up naturally if they make that decision, just by a few 100k less than it would if they don't. Should the players fight for a new way to calculate the cap ceiling in 3 years when the CBA is up? Sure, but that doesn't matter for the next 3 years.

 

[ruaware41]

Most people have a hate on for Nylander for no great reasons.

Most people want Nylander moved for those "reasons".

I dont think many of them actually think it will happen. Could be wrong though.

So far in his career he is merely a 60 pt player, most of which come on Matthews wings, who half assess it more than is expected which sets a bad precedent and gets paid 7m to do so.

If there's one big forward who should be moved for cap savings it's him.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It’s not a huge jump

When the new TV contract, Seattle, gambling revenues, etc. start rolling in, there will huge upward pressure on the cap. It makes no sense to stagnate the cap right now right before that, if it was even possible, which it's not.

The cap staying close to the same would result in all players under current contract reviving more money

Yes... Slightly... They already have been and will with the decreased salaries that were inserted into contracts due to fear of a lockout.

And this would also result in the players coming up for contract getting less money or losing their jobs outright. The NHLPA doesn't operate like that. Both sides want the cap to rise, escrow or not. The agreed-upon formula for the cap means it will rise, regardless of what the players "want".

 

[deltamachine]

What effect do you think Keefe will have when it comes to re-signing these guys. They’d be hard pressed to find a better place to play (coach, play style, collection of talent etc).

 

[horner]

I wouldn't be shocked if Dermott is packaged with a KAP/AJ to secure a piece.

I agree.

Trade
Dermot
Johnson
Kappy

Also the expansion draft is coming up in the summer of 2021