Value of: (1 yr rental) Matthews to COL BOS CAR SEA VGK

[stats1]

It’s going to be fascinating what the Leafs do. If they decide to let go of Dubas then the new GM would not have an attachment to any player so who knows the level of changes. If Dubas is kept I could really see him sticking with the core group and firing Keefe

 

[lwvs84]

Matthews as a rental makes more sense for most teams than extended. The problem isn't necessarily the player, it's the contract. Matthews will (obviously) be better than anyone he's traded for, but that contract is going to absolutely ruin a team's cap space and structure. The amount of money going out means all of the chemistry a team has is going to be ruined, same with the depth. The way for a team to get Matthews long term is if they are able to build around him and quick. It would have to be a team with a ton of cap space, solid depth signed at good contracts, and good young guys coming up on ELC's. Another option would be if you can get rid of bad contracts to fit him in, but that's going to cost a LOT more to do on top of paying to cost to get Matthews.

 

[TOGuy14]

He is as good as gone as a UFA next summer and will instantly become the most hated person in Toronto sports history. It's a good thing he wont play in Toronto very often as a member of the .... Arizona Coyotes.

I think the chances are almost zero he goes to Arizona.

LAK though...

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Bruins pass. Not worth the assets for one season.

 

[OMG67]

I'm sure, but those would be the center piece of any deal.

If they do win they lottery, leak that Toronto is willing to swap Matthews for Bedard to pressure the Yotes to make a deal.

Too much specific speculation. If you look at the broad strokes of a deal, it needs to be that, broad strokes.

Look at it this way. Matthews will want a contract worth approx 14-15% of the projected cap at the mid point of the contract. Let’s say he wants another 5 year deal and the projected cap in year three is $90mil, his agent will demand 15% of 90mil ($13.5mil) as the AAV. That’s pretty much how these types of deals work. The McDavid deal is structured that way as well. It seems like the standard for the elite handful of players. The Leafs will agree to the $$$ but will discuss things like term and signing bonuses, where the money is loaded etc. This contract will not be very hard to work out. I don’t think the Leafs will care about the term at all. They will want a Modified No Trade in the last year of the deal and because 34 is in Toronto, he wont’ want to go into the final season without a contract renewed either. Gong Show.

So, working out the deal isn’t difficult. If he asks for a silly number then the LEafs will know he isn’t serious and they will move to the trade zone. If he isn’t willing to discuss a contract and says he wants to test free agency, they will move to the trade zone. They have no choice. And it isn’t even about losing Matthews for nothing. They would have to deal witht he daily questions starting July 1st regarding him not signing an extension etc. Gong Show.

That is step one. Step two is the trade if it happens. Since step one didn’t happen, it is clear Matthews wants out. He will request a city or two. the ELafs will work within that and if they can’t get a good deal,t hey will go to step three and that is open market trade on a one year rental scenario. The Erik Karlsson trade is the most viable one as a comp.

The process is relatively easy. It isn‘t all that hard to figure out. The map has been drawn. Now it is just a matter of it all unfolding.

 

[OMG67]

I never really thought Arizona was a viable landing spot but if there were a way they could transfer ownership stake in the Franchise linked to a new arena, then strategically it would make sense for Arizona to trade almost anything to get him. He legitimizes the arena build and solidifies the franchises reputation. A local boy that returns home and helps save the team in Phoenix? Matthews gets a percentage of the club in return plus 15% of projected cap AAV? Works off ice more than on ice.

 

[LetsGoBruins97]

I want Draisaitl over Matthews as a Bruins fan.

Draisaitl is a free agent in 2024-25...

I know EDM isn't moving him, but if we can somehow prepare ourselves to make a big offer if he hits free agency next year, thats the move.

 

[zizbuka]

Not interested in moving him to an east team unless a massive overpayment.

Lmfao @ canes giving us two firsts aka 28th overall picks for him, 0 interest in helping an east team's playoff run for nothing.

But would you really be "helping" the other team's playoff runs?

 

[Killer Orcas]

Zero chance Matthews gets moved before his NMC kicks in.

Dubas has too much pride to blow it up, he loves his top guys too much.

If they get swept very high chance Dubas is let go. It would not be his decision to make then.

 

[Moridin]

Matthews to Sharks for E.Karlsson.

Lower cap hit for Leafs, and a player that actually shows up in the playoffs.

 

[Big Muddy]

One of Buffalo, Arizona, Chicago, Nashville or Anaheim could essentially buy themselves a 1st round pick or high end prospect by paying the money and cap space for one year to retain on Matthews. Looking at those teams, Chicago in particular stands out to me as a team in a good situation to do that. Big market team, not struggling financially, lots of cap space, not trying to compete right now.

I'm not saying that it'll happen, but I don't think it makes sense to automatically assume that a 3 way trade wouldn't happen for the sole purpose of a 3rd team retaining. I could see Chicago's GM convincing management to purchase a 1st rounder or equivalent prospect.

You mentioned rebuilding teams who it would seem are the least likely to want a player with one year of term remaining. On the other hand, if the Leafs allow the would be suitors to speak with his camp and work out his next contract/extension, that would make a big difference and would be the path forward.

In your OP you mentioned teams that are already good that might want to add that additional piece that would push them over the top. That makes sense except that those teams are usually close to the cap, so some major roster surgery could be required.

 

[FlyguyOX]

In theory, yes. The problem is where they would fit him, as the top 2 lines are set (even though the Sabres roll 3 lines for the most part). The only spot that would be intriguing would be as the 3rd line C or RW, playing with Mittelstadt or Krebs and Greenway, and I think you’d wanna give Matthews more than ~16 minutes a game at 5v5.

But Matthews and Tage on the same PP?

View attachment 704679

Krebs, mittlestadt, and all those 1st round prospects should be on the table. At worst you move Cozens to the wing to get more of your best players in the top 6.

Cozens - Matthews - Tuch
Skinner - Thompson - Quinn
Greenway - Kulich- JJP
who cares - who cares -who cares

Niiiiice

 

[bossram]

He is as good as gone as a UFA next summer and will instantly become the most hated person in Toronto sports history. It's a good thing he wont play in Toronto very often as a member of the .... Arizona Coyotes.

I could definitely see him leaving as a UFA, but it's pretty laughable to think he's going to Arizona.

He's not.

Matthews wants money and fame. Two things the Coyotes will absolutely not provide him. And their Tempe arena still is literally not approved.

 

[Maitz]

He will fit perfectly with the bunch of jerks

 

[John Mandalorian]

I could definitely see him leaving as a UFA, but it's pretty laughable to think he's going to Arizona.

He's not.

Matthews wants money and fame. Two things the Coyotes will absolutely not provide him. And their Tempe arena still is literally not approved.

The LA scenario that was mentioned seems very possible.

 

[bossram]

The LA scenario that was mentioned seems very possible.

Far more realistic.

 

[Bruce Granville]

Those teams want to win the Cup.
Why would any of them want to take Matthews?
Maybe Boston, because they might lose some players to retirement…

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

Best thing for Toronto is probably to trade Matthews. Guy has proven he isn't the kind of player who can put a team on his back in the playoffs. He's like a more skilled Kessel. Could probably be an incredible secondary piece to an established core. But he is going to demand an absolutely massive contract.

I hope Toronto signs him.

 

[dirtydanglez]

if you cant beat em, join em. calling it now. matthews to that cats.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

Those teams want to win the Cup.
Why would any of them want to take Matthews?
Maybe Boston, because they might lose some players to retirement…

Boston could make sense. Probably losing Bergeron so could use a center to replace him. Still have some proven, strong willed veterans to hold Matthews accountable and not let him get away with the country club mentality he has in Toronto.

It will never happen though.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Well, atleast he won't have to worry about playoff performance in Arizona.

They are building a good team, good prospects. Potential is there. Play-Offs potential is there.

 

[Hockeylife2018]

The leafs NEEd to have clarity on the issue prior to the season starting, no chance they risk pulling a calgary...plus they won't want the distraction throughout the season

Gonna be an interesting off season for the leafs

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

LA makes too much sense , the memes of him leaving are funny but I still think he stays in Toronto at the end of the day

 

[bettercallholl]

Why aren't the Leafs retaining salary? There is 0% chance the Leafs win the Cup without Auston Matthews next year. Their center depth becomes John Tavares - Pontus Holmberg - ...? It's a weak UFA year. If you move Matthews, you're giving up on this core and the next couple seasons at least. Might as well retain for one year. Like, why is Lehkonen on here? Are the Leafs without Matthews gonna add a 28 year old decent second liner and be able to get past an eighth place team?

 

[GreenLine]

That no trade clause kicking in on July 1st is brutal for Toronto. Who in their right mind would give an RFA that kind of leverage? Matthews is holding all the cards here.