ReggieDunlop68
hey hanrahan!
The stat is certainly interesting, though it might be a little misleading. It essentially treats all >4pt teams equally, which isn't necessarily realistic.
If, for example, you exclude just the last place team in each conference (I haven't looked but I doubt a team in last on Nov 1st. has made it) that bumps the success rate of the remaining teams up closer to 25%. That seems a little more in line with what you would intuitively expect it to be. In some cases you could probably exclude more teams that are noticeably closer to the bottom then then top, which would likely move the success rate closer to 30-40%
I think a more meaningful way to do this, if you're reading this Elliotte Friedman, would be to track playoff appearances as a function of some standard deviation of points from the conference mean on a given date.
Enough nerding, carry on, I'll see myself out.
48% of the teams ultimately DO NOT make the playoffs.
12% of the teams is the crap pile overcome that hurdle by the end of the season.
It def makes sense.