Boston Bruins ‘22-‘23 Bruins roster and trade proposals discussions. II

[wintersej]

These metrics do a bad job on shot quality, of course, even if they try to account for it as best they can with the limits of the data they are working with. They did a bad job at shit quality during the Julien/Cassidy years where “any shot is a good shot” and they do a bad job in the other direction when the Bruins are trying to be more selective.

But it’s remarkable how much the Bruins pace of getting and giving up shots is about the same with all the defenders on the ice…except Carlo.

It kinda makes sense they are a bit bunched together. So much mixing and matching on the d-pairs and the forward lines that it all gets muddled…except Carlo who has the ability to both squash the other teams offense…and his own teams.

 

[StonedZboril]

I would like to state for the record that in no way do I condone any derogatory statements made about eye patches or those who employ the use of same -- either out of necessity or as a fashion statement. I fully support the people who use them and would fight to the end to defend their right to do so. I'm particularly fond of pirates as well -- although I don't want to generalize or appear to single out full sighted pirates for any unintentional slight. I love all pirates.

Now...... with that said and at the risk of appearing uncaring...... I must say that I thought the comment above was funny.

Yes to clarify, I in no way meant the comment to be ableist. If anybody actually has one eye that’s sick. Just… holy shit with some of these takes, god damn.

 

[DominicT]

Fanalytics

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Fanalytics

Fans who want to trade Carlo, I don’t know what games they’re watching.

 

[NDiesel]

Fans who want to trade Carlo, I don’t know what games they’re watching.

They see 6 foot 5 and soft and that's all that matters.

On a serious note, because his D is so subtle and he provides so little offensively, I think when he makes a glaring mistake thats all that sticks in fans' mind since all the little subtleties he does aren't memorable enough.

 

[wintersej]

They see 6 foot 5 and soft and that's all that matters.

On a serious note, because his D is so subtle and he provides so little offensively, I think when he makes a glaring mistake thats all that sticks in fans' mind since all the little subtleties he does aren't memorable enough.

It’s not the softness it’s that he is the guy amongst the Bruins top 8 D that can handle the puck the least: offense goes to die in Carlo’s hands. He and Lindholm have not been a good match SO FAR. They have out performed their underlying metrics in a small sample, but no pairing in history has only gotten 40% of the shots and high danger shots and continued to be successful. Can they turn it around? Maybe! But if Carlo can’t be Lindholm’s partner effectively it creates a big mess. Conversely, in the long term, if you move Carlo you now are super thin on RD. I think anyone who says “this is the guy we have to trade no matter what” is a fool. You need to know the full trade. And I would argue that someone saying “we could never trade X” is a fool is they don’t know what the return would be either.

I would be open to moving Carlo in the *right* deal. I think Carlo has more value to a team with a Krug or a Hughes or even a Chabot than he does to Boston. But it has to be a hockey trade that would benefit both teams. And we know those are hard.

 

[NDiesel]

It’s not the softness it’s that he is the guy amongst the Bruins top 8 D that can handle the puck the least: He and Lindholm have not been a good match SO FAR. They have out performed their underlying metrics in a small sample, but no pairing in history has only gotten 40% of the shots and high danger shots and continued to be successful. Can they turn it around? Maybe! But if Carlo can’t be Lindholm’s partner effectively it creates a big mess. Conversely, in the long term, if you move Carlo you now are super thin on RD. I think anyone who says “this is the guy we have to trade no matter what” is a fool. You need to know the full trade. And I would argue that someone saying “we could never trade X” is a fool is they don’t know what the return would be either.

I agree with you and to add to my post I'm not against trading Carlo...but I think you trade him and then what? You gotta keep Clifton at that point and how much are you willing to spend? He'll probably be coming in around the same as Carlo since market value was lower when he signed the contract, and I'm not sure Clifton is consistent enough to replace what Carlo brings defensively

 

[wintersej]

I agree with you and to add to my post I'm not against trading Carlo...but I think you trade him and then what? You gotta keep Clifton at that point and how much are you willing to spend? He'll probably be coming in around the same as Carlo since market value was lower when he signed the contract, and I'm not sure Clifton is consistent enough to replace what Carlo brings defensively

Yeah I am not a Clifton believer in a “4x4” extension kind of way.

 

[NDiesel]

Yeah I am not a Clifton believer in a “4x4” extension kind of way.

Exactly....I think you explore a Carlo trade in the offseason if a anything, but I'm not ready to jettison him for Cliffy mid season

 

[NDiesel]

One reason I'm willing to move Carlo is because I'm not sure where to play him.

If your top4 is Gryz-Mac, Lindholm-Cliffy, then he's the most expensive 3rd pair D we've had yet.

Do you play him with Lindholm? Statistically Lindholm-Carlo has not been good. They have a 41% xG percentage which is 2nd worst on the team.

Gryz-Carlo has been very good this year (best on the team actually at 67% xG) but that means you have to go Lindholm-McAvoy which I think is wasteful. Lindholm-McAvoy isn't better than Gryz-Mac or Lindholm-Clifton. They get more bang for their buck with 27 & 73 on different pairs.

Forbort-Carlo? They haven't played together enough to have stats but I can't see that pair ever getting out of their own zone.

So you have this $4m defenseman. He's big, he's mobile, he's right handed and he is, in fairness, a very good player. He's basically a unicorn in today's NHL. He has all kinds of trade value and we need to clear cap space. It's probably too bold a move and maybe that's for the best with the chemistry they have right now, but if they plan to re-sign Cliffy (who has played very much like a legit top4 D this year) then you have to wonder if they can afford the luxury of Carlo in the 3rd pair going forward.

This team needs a center sooner rather than later, and as trade chips go, he's a big one.

I dont think you're wrong in your rationale here PM - he isn't a great match stylistically currently with our healthy lineup - but I think it's the wrong way to look at it.

Come playoffs we may be looking at playing Zboril or Stralman or even Ahcan due to injuries....sure Carlo doesn't fit with some of the current guys, but come playoff time he is a great bet to babysit inexperienced guys.

I think for better or worse you have to look at this season in a vacuum, they have to go all in and I think Carlo is a must for playoffs if he can be healthy. Sure something based around Horvat for Carlo is enticing, but I'm not sure it's what they need now to win.

Offseason is a whole new animal, and I would for sure move him for a C.

 

[Hookslide]

Fanalytics

Nice post ,nice stats , but I watch the games and can tell you my eyes say that kid should not be traded..........

 

[Blowfish]

Hoping Bruins target trade deadline...

Klingberg signed with the Anaheim Ducks this offseason on a one-year deal worth seven million.

Tarasenko - Contract terminates 2022/2023

Kane? Toews? Meh... Kane to Buffalo would be nice to see.

 

[DominicT]

Nice post ,nice stats , but I watch the games and can tell you my eyes say that kid should not be traded..........

Pretty sure that's what I said.

 

[Hookslide]

Pretty sure that's what I said.

Pretty sure my intent was to support what you said........

 

[DominicT]

Pretty sure my intent was to support what you said........

Probably should leave out the "but" next time.

 

[Hookslide]

Probably should leave out the "but" next time.

I think I will pass on the rest of this ,I am too old too be scolded..........

 

[mar2kbos]

Carlo is a swamp on his side, not many make it out of his corner. I get he is big and isnt mean and he is not Orr with the puck, but he is a container and plays a shutdown role well. Not everyone needs to be a puck mover. Both he and Forbort on the third pairing and PK is a huge plus for the team

 

[Number8]

Yes to clarify, I in no way meant the comment to be ableist. If anybody actually has one eye that’s sick. Just… holy shit with some of these takes, god damn.

I was just having fun. I thought your comment was genuinely funny. Anything that makes me laugh out loud when reading something in the boards gets a massive thumbs up from me. All day long.

Aaaaarghhhhh (where’s the pirate emogi?)

 

[Number8]

So, what you are really saying here (don't deny it) is that you need a second set of analytics to tell you what the first set of analytics isn't telling you.

Dom, it’s not often that I can educate you on hockey, but when I can I will. Here’s the scoop:

I know jack shit about most of what I say, 99% of the time.
On the other hand, 99% of the time, I believe I know everything.
Now take into account that the respective 1% in each scenario above is subject to the ear test.

Far too complicated to explain here, but what that means is that if I sound like I know what I’m talking about, then 99% of the time I do. So, if my math is right, that means I’m on the money 199.923% of the time. Which, to be fair, is an awful lot.

Now those numbers don’t make any sense to the average person, I know. But I’m 199.923% certain I’m correct on this — and that’s good enough for me. Unless it’s a Tuesday. Tuesday’s aren’t good for me. I don’t know why — modeling error I think

Anyway. Bottom line? Ignore the data. Just know that if you are wondering about a given player, Mr. Number 8 is your man. The numbers, as I’ve very clearly shown above, prove that.

There are also some odd grey areas that pop up now and then. For example, when I said Nick Foligno was toast, people misunderstood me. What I was really saying was that I was 199.923% certain he’d have a revival this season.

Happy Thanksgiving, all.

 

[DominicT]

Dom, it’s not often that I can educate you on hockey, but when I can I will. Here’s the scoop:

I know jack shit about most of what I say, 99% of the time.
On the other hand, 99% of the time, I believe I know everything.
Now take into account that the respective 1% in each scenario above is subject to the ear test.

Far too complicated to explain here, but what that means is that if I sound like I know what I’m talking about, then 99% of the time I do. So, if my math is right, that means I’m on the money 199.923% of the time. Which, to be fair, is an awful lot.

Now those numbers don’t make any sense to the average person, I know. But I’m 199.923% certain I’m correct on this — and that’s good enough for me. Unless it’s a Tuesday. Tuesday’s aren’t good for me. I don’t know why — modeling error I think

Anyway. Bottom line? Ignore the data. Just know that if you are wondering about a given player, Mr. Number 8 is your man. The numbers, as I’ve very clearly shown above, prove that.

There are also some odd grey areas that pop up now and then. For example, when I said Nick Foligno was toast, people misunderstood me. What I was really saying was that I was 199.923% certain he’d have a revival this season.

Happy Thanksgiving, all.

Got it!

I know the issue with Tuesdays though. In too much of a hurry for Toonie Tuesdays at KFC!!

 

[remer]

When is Mike Reilly getting traded?

 

[Number8]

Got it!

I know the issue with Tuesdays though. In too much of a hurry for Toonie Tuesdays at KFC!!

I knew it was something, just damned if I could remember!!! You’ve always got me covered Dom!

 

[BradMarchandismydad]

When is Mike Reilly getting traded?

When Ottawa decides they want to

 

[bruinmann77]

When Ottawa decides they want to

Just hoping we don’t throw in any draft picks

 

[goldnblack]

Just hoping we don’t throw in any draft picks

Seems impossible not to? Nobody wanted him for free.