Boston Bruins ‘22-‘23 Bruins roster and trade proposals discussions. II

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

I was replying under the context that Toronto is desperate for D help and if they were, they could overpay Bruins for Reilly. I understand that it will likely not happen.

I understand.

I'm just saying both teams are fairly desperate to do what they need to do.

And if the "thing" we are doing to help them is giving them our 7-9th best defenseman that we can't get rid of, I consider the 100% a win.

Mike Reilly for a career AHLer is better than Mike Reilly+ picks for future considerations. Asking for an actual return seems like something they'd pass on, and we'd still be at square one.

Rivalries be damned, he's not a player I'm losing any sleep over coming to bite us in the ass. If it helps Toronto's depth is the worse part of the deal, I can live with that.

 

[ON3M4N]

Bruins are likely more ready to move Carlo when Lorhei is ready, as the latter will likely be a significant upgrade to Carlo. But Carlo is playing well and playing the right way.

Good problem to have, more assets than you can keep

Lohrei is a LHD and Carlo a RHD. To say that a guy whose never played an NHL game will likely be a significant upgrade on a guy whose been a premier shutdown d-men this year is....well interesting.

 

[PlayMakers]

You can make that argument the other way too. There are folks that don't care what any stat says and think their eyes are gospel when judging a player.

As for Lindholm, what that chart doesn't take into account are how much a guy starts in the o-zone vs d-zone or the quality of competition. I see a bunch of NJD players top right and when I look 3 of them are starting 57% to 61% of their zone starts in the o-zone. That's pretty heavy compared to Lindholm who only sits at 45% starts in the o-zone. It shouldn't be a surprise then that they'd have a higher xGF/60 with significantly more offensive zone starts.

Every stat needs context, even zone start%.

For example, Carlo has 59% Dzone starts and Grzelcyk is the opposite with 54% Ozone starts, both have played 15 games, but Grzelcyk actually has more Dzone starts and Dzone face-offs than Carlo (103 to 101).

Maybe a better example would be Bergeron vs Nosek. Bergeron is getting 62% Ozone starts, Nosek is getting 88% Dzone starts. So you'd think they're not really taking advantage of Bergeron's defensive prowess but Bergeron actually has more Dzone starts & FO's than Nosek, 140 to 124.

Doesn't mean those guys aren't up against it with the higher Dzone%, just think the context is valuable.

 

[PlayMakers]

Bruins are likely more ready to move Carlo when Lorhei is ready, as the latter will likely be a significant upgrade to Carlo. But Carlo is playing well and playing the right way.

Good problem to have, more assets than you can keep

I always thought Grzelcyk would be the one to move when Lohrei "arrives." Both LHD, both offensive/transition minded, they're not taking Lindholm out of the top4... but who knows with Sweeney. He probably won't be convinced Lohrei is for real until he wins a Norris.

 

[PlayMakers]

For those willing to trade Carlo here are some interesting defensive numbers:

179 defensemen have played at least 150 minutes this season. Carlo among them ranks per 60....

xGA/60 - 18th
GA/60 - 5th

This while have the 18th highest defensive zone start% among defensemen.

I wonder how much those numbers are affected by his recent games, because for the last two weeks he's been playing 16-18 minutes in the bottom pair. It wasn't until the last two games that he got back up over 20 minutes.

I thought Carlo was at the bottom of all our team stats early on. Like when I looked at D pairs on MoneyPuck, he was part of every bad pairing on our team. He's not now, but he was.

 

[PlayMakers]

One reason I'm willing to move Carlo is because I'm not sure where to play him.

If your top4 is Gryz-Mac, Lindholm-Cliffy, then he's the most expensive 3rd pair D we've had yet.

Do you play him with Lindholm? Statistically Lindholm-Carlo has not been good. They have a 41% xG percentage which is 2nd worst on the team.

Gryz-Carlo has been very good this year (best on the team actually at 67% xG) but that means you have to go Lindholm-McAvoy which I think is wasteful. Lindholm-McAvoy isn't better than Gryz-Mac or Lindholm-Clifton. They get more bang for their buck with 27 & 73 on different pairs.

Forbort-Carlo? They haven't played together enough to have stats but I can't see that pair ever getting out of their own zone.

So you have this $4m defenseman. He's big, he's mobile, he's right handed and he is, in fairness, a very good player. He's basically a unicorn in today's NHL. He has all kinds of trade value and we need to clear cap space. It's probably too bold a move and maybe that's for the best with the chemistry they have right now, but if they plan to re-sign Cliffy (who has played very much like a legit top4 D this year) then you have to wonder if they can afford the luxury of Carlo in the 3rd pair going forward.

This team needs a center sooner rather than later, and as trade chips go, he's a big one.

 

[KnightofBoston]

Lohrei is a LHD and Carlo a RHD. To say that a guy whose never played an NHL game will likely be a significant upgrade on a guy whose been a premier shutdown d-men this year is....well interesting.

We’ve already seen offhanded play in the top 6 under Montgomery. That said I’d rather have both Carlo and lorhei here. A top four of Lindholm Chuck then lorhei Carlo would be really really tough to maintain control of the puck for extended periods as far as the opposition is concerned

And yea, he’s the real deal. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t become an NHL regular. His skill set is just too high and fits what the modern NHL is looking for.

 

[Hookslide]

Lohrei is a LHD and Carlo a RHD. To say that a guy whose never played an NHL game will likely be a significant upgrade on a guy whose been a premier shutdown d-men this year is....well interesting.

Yeah that's a stretch..........

 

[Number8]

Amen! Analytics in sports should be a nice add on vs the gospel

That's how I see it. And they should always be taken with a grain of salt.

How many times have we watched a team who is on a hot streak begin to play poorly BEFORE the streak ends? If, one looks purely at the stats (W/L) then the streak is still going and things are sunshine and happiness. But those that know the game know that the wheels are about to come off the joy ride.

I'll trust my eyes more times than not -- plus as a fan advanced stats really don't mean anything much to me.

"You know Johnny had a great game. His Corsi % Entries when cross referenced against other left handed defenders with the same percentage offensive zone starts who also had pasta primavera for game day lunch, was just unreal. Yes, he had an atrocious own goal at the end of the game that ended our playoff run, but that Corsi % Entry quotient?!!!??!!!? Man oh Man, that was a nice stat to watch happen."

 

[Number8]

Yr depth perception is f***ed with that one eye.

I would like to state for the record that in no way do I condone any derogatory statements made about eye patches or those who employ the use of same -- either out of necessity or as a fashion statement. I fully support the people who use them and would fight to the end to defend their right to do so. I'm particularly fond of pirates as well -- although I don't want to generalize or appear to single out full sighted pirates for any unintentional slight. I love all pirates.

Now...... with that said and at the risk of appearing uncaring...... I must say that I thought the comment above was funny.

 

[Troublesome 85]

I know hes not needed but Reeves traded to Wild. Was gonna actually suggest him a few days ago cuz I saw an article about Rangers that are available.

Maybe the Bs can get Kaako

 

[Patdud]

Bruins are likely more ready to move Carlo when Lorhei is ready, as the latter will likely be a significant upgrade to Carlo. But Carlo is playing well and playing the right way.

Good problem to have, more assets than you can keep

I’d wager they probably want to play him with Carlo not replace Carlo when he’s ready.


I don’t think the bruins ate out there looking to off load him first but if a suitable trade pops up thatq clears space or satisfies a need you do it.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

I know hes not needed but Reeves traded to Wild. Was gonna actually suggest him a few days ago cuz I saw an article about Rangers that are available.

Maybe the Bs can get Kaako

Reaves is the worst forward in the NHL

 

[CrownofThornton]

Devils fan back again!

Just saw the Boston Herald article about Zacha, Its nice that he seems to being doing good for you guys.

Last game he had a couple of very nice plays that could have ended up being a goal. I think he’s really just now starting to hit his stride with the Bruins (not that he’s been terrible prior). He’s starting to stand out more as of late.

 

[ON3M4N]

Every stat needs context, even zone start%.

For example, Carlo has 59% Dzone starts and Grzelcyk is the opposite with 54% Ozone starts, both have played 15 games, but Grzelcyk actually has more Dzone starts and Dzone face-offs than Carlo (103 to 101).

Maybe a better example would be Bergeron vs Nosek. Bergeron is getting 62% Ozone starts, Nosek is getting 88% Dzone starts. So you'd think they're not really taking advantage of Bergeron's defensive prowess but Bergeron actually has more Dzone starts & FO's than Nosek, 140 to 124.

Doesn't mean those guys aren't up against it with the higher Dzone%, just think the context is valuable.

That's fair and true. It's more about how they get deployed, when they are deployed.

We’ve already seen offhanded play in the top 6 under Montgomery. That said I’d rather have both Carlo and lorhei here. A top four of Lindholm Chuck then lorhei Carlo would be really really tough to maintain control of the puck for extended periods as far as the opposition is concerned

And yea, he’s the real deal. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t become an NHL regular. His skill set is just too high and fits what the modern NHL is looking for.

I'm high on Lohrei and wouldn't include him in any deal unless it nets us a young top 6 center. With that said he still hasn't played an NHL game and most NHL d-men need a solid 200 games to get established/figure things out in the NHL.

 

[ON3M4N]

That's how I see it. And they should always be taken with a grain of salt.

How many times have we watched a team who is on a hot streak begin to play poorly BEFORE the streak ends? If, one looks purely at the stats (W/L) then the streak is still going and things are sunshine and happiness. But those that know the game know that the wheels are about to come off the joy ride.

I'll trust my eyes more times than not -- plus as a fan advanced stats really don't mean anything much to me.

"You know Johnny had a great game. His Corsi % Entries when cross referenced against other left handed defenders with the same percentage offensive zone starts who also had pasta primavera for game day lunch, was just unreal. Yes, he had an atrocious own goal at the end of the game that ended our playoff run, but that Corsi % Entry quotient?!!!??!!!? Man oh Man, that was a nice stat to watch happen."

So should most peoples opinion based on their eye test. The truth is the eye test and advanced stats are best used together. For example, eye test says Lindholm has been a beast and the metrics agree. The eye test says Reilly has been meh, but the metrics rate him high. In the case of Reilly the reality is likely somewhere in between.

 

[Xirik]

How is Haula playing?

He looked great as the 3rd line center but when Palat went down he moved up to be a winger with Hughes. He has been really snakebitten as of late which has caused the Devils fans to meme about how he always misses on great opportunities. It does seem that whatever line he is on causes it to gel and work, If he isn't on the Hughes line then that line starts sucking and when he's not the Center for the third line that line doesn't function.

Its probably because Hughes needs someone to take faceoffs for him and be the more responsible player on the ice. Haula was suppose to solve our 3rd line center problem so when he's on the 2nd line it really shows as we don't have any depth to fill that void. Jesper Boqvist has started to do better in that position though.

This is a funny clip featuring Haula on the floor laughing during pregame at the saddledome.

 

[Number8]

So should most peoples opinion based on their eye test. The truth is the eye test and advanced stats are best used together. For example, eye test says Lindholm has been a beast and the metrics agree. The eye test says Reilly has been meh, but the metrics rate him high. In the case of Reilly the reality is likely somewhere in between.

Absolutely. The eye test is just as subjective and subject to bias as any stat - or analysis of any stat.

Just my preferred approach as a fan.

If I score ten goals in a season as a ”defensively oriented player” but 5 of those goals are ENG, then my ten goals need to be put in perspective. Just as should Fan A saying I’m absolutely awesome and look great and Fan B saying I suck and need to be benched.

I think anyone who uses an advanced stat as gospel is overstating things. Same is true for someone who says “to me this player looks great so therefore is great”.

For me — I’m not a coach or scout or management — I get enjoyment out of watching the games. Which for me, makes it an “eye test” experience.

No big deal. No one is asking me whether we should trade a player, and I doubt they ever will.

The day I tell you Player A is XYZ and you’re an idiot if you think otherwise (regardless of whether I use the eye test, advanced stats, or a combination for my assessment) is the day you should put me on ignore. Hopefully I’ll be well behaved and that won’t be necesary.

 

[DominicT]

You can make that argument the other way too. There are folks that don't care what any stat says and think their eyes are gospel when judging a player.

As for Lindholm, what that chart doesn't take into account are how much a guy starts in the o-zone vs d-zone or the quality of competition. I see a bunch of NJD players top right and when I look 3 of them are starting 57% to 61% of their zone starts in the o-zone. That's pretty heavy compared to Lindholm who only sits at 45% starts in the o-zone. It shouldn't be a surprise then that they'd have a higher xGF/60 with significantly more offensive zone starts.

So, what you are really saying here (don't deny it) is that you need a second set of analytics to tell you what the first set of analytics isn't telling you.

 

[ON3M4N]

So, what you are really saying here (don't deny it) is that you need a second set of analytics to tell you what the first set of analytics isn't telling you.

Analytics of the analytics lol.

 

[DominicT]

Every stat needs context, even zone start%.

For example, Carlo has 59% Dzone starts and Grzelcyk is the opposite with 54% Ozone starts, both have played 15 games, but Grzelcyk actually has more Dzone starts and Dzone face-offs than Carlo (103 to 101).

Maybe a better example would be Bergeron vs Nosek. Bergeron is getting 62% Ozone starts, Nosek is getting 88% Dzone starts. So you'd think they're not really taking advantage of Bergeron's defensive prowess but Bergeron actually has more Dzone starts & FO's than Nosek, 140 to 124.

Doesn't mean those guys aren't up against it with the higher Dzone%, just think the context is valuable.

Doesn't mean they're not still starting at a disadvantage most times, but I think

So, you're telling me I need a different set of analytics to put into context the analytics @ON3M4N offered up as context to the original set of analytics?

Man, this is confusing.

 

[DominicT]

Leafs are down top D man M Rielly...some desperation creeping in for a D man. Our M Reilly would be a perfect fit but I hope the bruins get something in return.

Leafs are going to have to clear about $1.1 million AAV when it's time to activate Morgan Reilly. So, we send them Mike Reilly and now they need to clear $4.1 million in AAV to activate Morgan.

What salary are the Bruins taking back to send Mike Reilly to them and how are the Bruins going to fit it under the cap?

 

[GordonHowe]

That's just nonsense. The Athletic sucks

I cancelled my promotional subscription -- one dollar a month -- because it wasn't worth it.

Fluto is a bright guy, a decent writer, and knowledgeable about the sport. But he's very pleased with himself, and not as good as he thinks he is.

Remember the Pasta Hates Sweeney quote this summer? When both camps pushed back, it was radio silence from Shinzawa. He never bothered, or condescended, to address the matter publicly. Not a profile in courage.

 

[LouJersey]

Reaves is the worst forward in the NHL

Having watched him a bit this year I can endorse this statement. He’s horrific

 

[Bruinswillwin77]

I cancelled my promotional subscription -- one dollar a month -- because it wasn't worth it.

Fluto is a bright guy, a decent writer, and knowledgeable about the sport. But he's very pleased with himself, and not as good as he thinks he is.

Remember the Pasta Hates Sweeney quote this summer? When both camps pushed back, it was radio silence from Shinzawa. He never bothered, or condescended, to address the matter publicly. Not a profile in courage.

I almost subscribed but I didn't. Meh, if you have twitter/SM these days you hear/read/see news without it anyway.