Zegras or Wright

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

We go through this stuff every year. Rarely is there ever any real doubt that the perceived 1OA doesn’t go first, despite the debates that are had. If you had to bet 1,000 of your own dollars on it, you are putting all of it on Wright.

We literally just saw that happen in 2017 when Hischier jumped Patrick.

The only reason we don't see it happen more often is that most favorites to go first don't have as disappointing of a draft year that Wright has had.

If memory serves Couturier was projected to go first for a while in 2011 as well. And I don't think EJ was supposed to go first in 2006. Same with Kane in 2007. Spezza was supposed to go first in 2001 but Kovalchuk passed him late.

So it seems to happen every 5 years or so, sounds like we're due.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Of the last 10 first overall picks that have played in the NHL, I think Zegras is pretty clearly better than at least 5 of them:

RNH
Yakupov
MacKinnon
Ekblad
McDavid
Matthews
Hischier
Dahlin
Hughes
Lafreniere

And I think Hughes and Ekblad could be debatable.

And Wright's current performance in his draft year is worse than anybody on this list.

He definitely isn't clearly better than Dahlin, but the more amusing thing here is how you always try to push Hughes > Dahlin when it very clearly isn't the case.

 

[Kristopher Letang]

Zetterberg?

Zdeno Chara

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

We literally just saw that happen in 2017 when Hischier jumped Patrick.

The only reason we don't see it happen more often is that most favorites to go first don't have as disappointing of a draft year that Wright has had.

That was the one recent year where the perceived first overall pick didn’t go first. It’s much more likely than not that we’ll see the same pattern over and over again repeat itself as opposed to a 2017.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

That was the one recent year where the perceived first overall pick didn’t go first. It’s much more likely than not that we’ll see the same pattern over and over again repeat itself as opposed to a 2017.

Says who? Wright's underperformance says otherwise.

 

[Zach716]

Yakupov is far from the only exception. And Wright still hasn't been drafted first overall. If he doesn't significantly improve in the 2nd half of the year, he probably won't, or at least shouldn't, go first (and if he did, he'd have put up the worst draft year for a first overall pick in recent memory).

Of the last 10 first overall picks that have played in the NHL, I think Zegras is pretty clearly better than at least 5 of them:

RNH
Yakupov
MacKinnon
Ekblad
McDavid
Matthews
Hischier
Dahlin
Hughes
Lafreniere

And I think Hughes and Ekblad could be debatable.

And Wright's current performance in his draft year is worse than anybody on this list.

 

[bsu]

Z has more upside than Wright and we already see his floor now. Why are people bringing up where they were drafted lmfao. All we now right now is Zegras is a near PPG center playing against shutdown lines and pairings nightly... He literally turned Milano into a 70 point player and is just scratching the surface.

Zegras is everything you want in a player both on the ice and off.

 

[Panthaz89]

Says who? Wright's underperformance says otherwise.

Hasn't Wright turn the light on and started producing after a poor start?

 

[newfy]

Says who? Wright's underperformance says otherwise.

Wright had a slow start after not playing last season. Hes not underperforming.

Despite the slow start Wright is likely going to put up an over 100 point pace in the OHL this year as a draft eligible who is really, really good defensively for his age. The only reason he wont actually hit 100 points is that hes going to miss a bunch of time playing for Canada at the WJC as a draft eligible in his draft year.

It would be hard to take Wright over Zegras with how good he is in the NHL already, but its not because Wright is underperforming. And I wont be surprised at all if Wright is actually better in the NHL at all, just probably not worth the risk vs what you know youre getting from Zegras

 

[HanSolo]

Rare to see a poll that requires thoughtful consideration to answer but it is still pretty impossible to make the right call.

Zegras is an attractive pick because he's proving himself to be a surefire star with exciting and creative hockey in his toolkit.

Wright is more of an unknown but could very conceivably be better. It's going to depend a lot on how he develops pre and post draft as well as what team picks him.

I guess for me I'd stick with Zegras because I more or less know what I'm getting. With Wright there's potential to end up better off but it's less of a guarantee.

 

[kilowatt]

Who knows what Wright's ceiling is, he might even be as good as Zegras!

 

[haulinbass]

be better than Zegras? as great as Zegras looks to be, its not like hes doing what hes doing at age 18 right out of his draft year. Wright is whole 3 years younger and only in his second year in junior!

Wright is a consensus #1 pick, and usually those end out being pretty special. Yakupov being the only exception in the past 20 years or so. Time will tell.

Really.. I think you need to go back and study the draft results for the last 20 years or so.

 

[haulinbass]

Yakupov is far from the only exception. And Wright still hasn't been drafted first overall. If he doesn't significantly improve in the 2nd half of the year, he probably won't, or at least shouldn't, go first (and if he did, he'd have put up the worst draft year for a first overall pick in recent memory).

Of the last 10 first overall picks that have played in the NHL, I think Zegras is pretty clearly better than at least 5 of them:

RNH
Yakupov
MacKinnon
Ekblad
McDavid
Matthews
Hischier
Dahlin
Hughes
Lafreniere

And I think Hughes and Ekblad could be debatable.

And Wright's current performance in his draft year is worse than anybody on this list.

And to add to this, it took years for MackKinnon and Ekblad to become anywhere close to the players they were expected to be.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Zegra being picked 9th seems to cloud peoples judgment on him…

If he went 1st overall…. This thread would be 90% zegras

 

[amnesiac]

Really.. I think you need to go back and study the draft results for the last 20 years or so.

Consensus #1 picks? other than Yakupov, tell me those who were a bust.

Consensus #1 picks were: Kovalchuk, Ovie, Crosby, Kane (somewhat), Stamkos, Tavares, Yakupov, MacKinnon, Matthews, Dahlin, Hughes, Laf

 

[TBF1972]

draft position means nothing when youre talking about 2 players of the same age. This is not the case.... draft position says that Wright being the consensus #1 (and quite hyped) is a better prospect than Zegras was in his draft year (ranked around 10th). While Zegras had a fantastic D+1 and great start after 40 NHL games, I dont see why Wright cant or wouldnt do better.

Time will tell.

at that time of the year nolan patrick was the consensus #1 (and quite hyped).

definitely wright has a chance to become the better player. but with an equal or higher probability he never gets better than zegras already is now.

 

[amnesiac]

at that time of the year nolan patrick was the consensus #1 (and quite hyped).

definitely wright has a chance to become the better player. but with an equal or higher probability he never gets better than zegras already is now.

Patrick was a consensus early on in the season, but wasnt at all leading up to the draft.... Look were talking about a guy in his 2nd year junior whos turning 18 in a few weeks vs a guy whos played 50+ in the NHL and turning 21 in 3 months. Its pretty dumb comparison to be honest this early in both their careers.

 

[haulinbass]

Consensus #1 picks? name me some who busted.

Since when are we talking about busted? Thought the debate was vs Zegras. Which would mean a list of players who are lesser than or are debatably close to Zegras. Plenty of players drafted 1st overall who most would go with Zegras over. Also plenty of players on that list who took multiple years to hit stride, considering you tried to make an argument saying 1st overall players make an immediate impact.

That is the true debate right? Not busted 1st overall players? Got to completely steer the discussion into a new direction each time your backed into a corner?

 

[TBF1972]

Patrick was a consensus early on in the season, but wasnt at all leading up to the draft.... Look were talking about a guy in his 2nd year junior whos turning 18 in a few weeks vs a guy whos played 45+ in the NHL and turning 21 in 3 months. Its pretty dumb comparison to be honest.

as i said, at this time of the year. the draft is still a few months away and if wright doesn't significantly improves, he might get passed by a late riser like hischier.

suzuki was in the same draft as patrick. this alone should tell you one of the potential stories.

 

[amnesiac]

Since when are we talking about busted? Thought the debate was vs Zegras. Which would mean a list of players who are lesser than or are debatably close to Zegras. Plenty of players drafted 1st overall who most would go with Zegras over. Also plenty of players on that list who took multiple years to hit stride, considering you tried to make an argument saying 1st overall players make an immediate impact.

That is the true debate right? Not busted 1st overall players? Got to completely steer the discussion into a new direction each time your backed into a corner?

backed into a corner? from you saying what exactly?

I said the consensus #1 picks of the last 20 years all turned out to be great except Yakupov....( the jury is still out on: Dahlin, Hughes, Laf). You said I should "look back on the drafts of the past 20 years". Thats all this discussion was about.... So tell me where Im wrong.

Nowhere did I say #1 overall picks make an "immediate impact". Please feel free to quote me. Cus you just made that up for some reason.

yeah man, you really backed me into a corner there by not following what I said..... wow.

 

[amnesiac]

as i said, at this time of the year. the draft is still a few months away and if wright doesn't significantly improves, he might get passed by a late riser like hischier.

suzuki was in the same draft as patrick. this alone should tell you one of the potential stories.

sure, thats ONE example. Why does Wright have to be in the same boat as Patrick? Why cant he be in the same boat as: MacKinnon, Matthews, Stamkos, Tavares, etc etc

 

[TBF1972]

sure, thats ONE example. Why does Wright have to be in the same boat as Patrick? Why cant he be in the same boat as: MacKinnon, Matthews, Stamkos, Tavares, etc etc

both scenarios are possible. wright's future isn't written in stone. if he becomes the player zegras is, it's already a hugely positive scenario. therefore choosing zegras is playing it safe(r).

 

[amnesiac]

both scenarios are possible. wright's future isn't written in stone. if he becomes the player zegras is, it's already a hugely positive scenario. therefore choosing zegras is playing it safe(r).

of course its possible... anything is. Its possible Zegras has a really good rookie season, and ends out just being a very good, but not great player longterm, a la Willy Nylander or Matt Duchene.

We couldve also said choosing Duchene over say Draisaitl was a safer scenario too after the 2014 season. We can find many example for both sides.

Bottom line that its just TOO EARLY to be predicting if a barely 18 year old in his second year junior will or will not be better than a guy turning 21 with 54 games under his belt. I dont see the point. Lets at least wait until Wright plays a full season, and even then.... I mean it took MacKinnon a few seasons to break out, Draisaitl had 9 points in his first 37 NHL games!!

 

[bsu]

of course its possible... anything is. Its possible Zegras has a really good rookie season, and ends out just being a very good, but not great player longterm, a la Willy Nylander or Matt Duchene.

We couldve also said choosing Duchene over say Draisaitl was a safer scenario too after the 2014 season. We can find many example for both sides.

Bottom line that its just TOO EARLY to be predicting if a barely 18 year old in his second year junior will or will not be better than a guy turning 21 with 54 games under his belt. I dont see the point. Lets at least wait until Wright plays a full season, and even then.... I mean it took MacKinnon a few seasons to break out, Draisaitl had 9 points in his first 37 NHL games!!

Watch some Anaheim games my man. I know there late but any game you watch I guarantee you'll see something amazing.

 

[Samsquanch]

How on Earth is Wright winning this? Zegras has the higher floor and the higher ceiling...

Zegras has something like 25 points in his last 24 games. I think it's doubtful Wright ever reaches the level Zegras is today. There are still tons of question marks around his ability to transition to the NHL, and his play in the OHL has left a lot to be desired.

If you want the really obvious answer, its because Zegras is a 2019 drafted player drafted 9th.

Shane Wright is a highly touted potential #1OV in 2022 - pick thats been getting hype for years. Your comparing him to a player thats got 3 seasons of pro level 8development on him.

As awesome as Zegras has been, especially this season, a more appropriate question is how on earth are you surprised that the rest of the world doesnt believe hes already now as valuable as an upcoming #1OV pick (ie like one of the top 10-20 most valuable assets in the entire NHL for most teams in any given year).

Thats not the value Zegras has right now... He might have surpassed Jack Hughes and be the most valuable player from the 2019 draft today - totally fair to say.

But thats still not saying THAT much in reality. 2019 is the definition of meh, and while Zegras is awesome - his resume does not read at all like a superstar #1OV pick should have at this point in time (3 years since being drafted) - he would have had to do much more by now (as of today) to chose him over a potential franchise level player thats 3 years younger. Its just logic imo.