Zegras or Wright

[amnesiac]

The underlying flag waving on both sides of this argument is embarrassing.

Two different types of players.

For me is like arguing who is better between Mike Modano vs. Patrice Bergeron. Pointless. Especially given the fact Zegras is two years older. You can defend either all day long.

whos the "Bergeron"?

I think Zegras will be a consummate dangling playmaker a la Spezza.

Wright were still seeing (the guy is only in his 2nd year in the OHL), but I would compare to a Tavares type.

 

[amnesiac]

View attachment 493215

Zegras is insanely skilled and creative and is producing like a #1 center he is better then what position he was taken in his draft also he will be 21 in a few months not 22.

I understand he WOULD go top 2-3 in a redraft, but he wasnt "better" than Wright was in his draft year. I mean hes 3 years older! ... God knows how good Wright will look in 3 years!

 

[SensontheRush]

Redraft sure. I meant at 18 years old there’s no draft he’s going 1st overall in

I hope you had fun arguing with yourself then.

 

[amnesiac]

You said it's not dumb to use draft position to justify how you evaluate players. I showed you one example (of countless possible examples) of why that is dumb.



That's because they are miles apart. Wright is simply not the same caliber of player, anyone with two eyeballs could see that.

you realise Zegras is almost 3 full years older than Wright? I mean thats the big kicker here. Youre judging Wright at 17 years old compared to a guy who played A LOT more relatively speaking.

I can also give countless examples of how a consensus #1 pick ended out better than guys who impressed in their rookie seasons who were thought to be future superstars.

Matthews, MacKinnon, Tavares, Stamkos, Hall/Seguin vs Myers, Monahan, Skinner, Tarasenko, Nylander, Duchene

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

you realise Zegras is almost 3 full years older than Wright? I mean thats the big kicker here. Youre judging Wright at 17 years old compared to a guy who played A LOT more relatively speaking.

I can also give countless examples of how a consensus #1 pick ended out better than guys who impressed in their rookie seasons who were thought to be future superstars.

Matthews, MacKinnon, Tavares, Stamkos, Hall/Seguin vs Myers, Monahan, Skinner, Tarasenko, Nylander, Duchene

I do realize that. It's still not justification to pick a prospect like Wright over star like Zegras.

Draft position is the laziest justification for picking one player over another.

Also I don't think Wright is or will be the consensus #1 pick. He's just flat out not that good.

 

[haulinbass]

Zegras looks as good as you would hope most 1st overall picks turn out. I take Zegras, if we are talking the 1st pick of the 23 draft, then obviously we got a debate on our hands at this point.

Not sure what people are hoping Wright "might" be able to offer than Zegras doesn't already.

 

[peconcan]

I’d take my chances with Wright right now but it’s too early to tell

 

[amnesiac]

Zegras looks as good as you would hope most 1st overall picks turn out. I take Zegras, if we are talking the 1st pick of the 23 draft, then obviously we got a debate on our hands at this point.

Not sure what people are hoping Wright "might" be able to offer than Zegras doesn't already.

be better than Zegras? as great as Zegras looks to be, its not like hes doing what hes doing at age 18 right out of his draft year. Wright is whole 3 years younger and only in his second year in junior!

Wright is a consensus #1 pick, and usually those end out being pretty special. Yakupov being the only exception in the past 20 years or so. Time will tell.

 

[wetcoast]

How on Earth is Wright winning this? Zegras has the higher floor and the higher ceiling...

Zegras has something like 25 points in his last 24 games. I think it's doubtful Wright ever reaches the level Zegras is today. There are still tons of question marks around his ability to transition to the NHL, and his play in the OHL has left a lot to be desired.

I doubt this post ages very well but I took the too close to call option here.

Zegras is going to be a great player but I think Wright will be too.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

be better than Zegras? as great as Zegras looks to be, its not like hes doing what hes doing at age 18 right out of his draft year. Wright is whole 3 years younger and only in his second year in junior!

Wright is a consensus #1 pick, and usually those end out being pretty special. Yakupov being the only exception in the past 20 years or so. Time will tell.

Yakupov is far from the only exception. And Wright still hasn't been drafted first overall. If he doesn't significantly improve in the 2nd half of the year, he probably won't, or at least shouldn't, go first (and if he did, he'd have put up the worst draft year for a first overall pick in recent memory).

Of the last 10 first overall picks that have played in the NHL, I think Zegras is pretty clearly better than at least 5 of them:

RNH
Yakupov
MacKinnon
Ekblad
McDavid
Matthews
Hischier
Dahlin
Hughes
Lafreniere

And I think Hughes and Ekblad could be debatable.

And Wright's current performance in his draft year is worse than anybody on this list.

 

[VVP]

Zegras all the way. He will be truly elite, to me he is reincarnation of Patrick Kane. Wright? Very solid player a notch below.

 

[CherryToke]

The Oilers probably should have drafted Zegras.. but I'm glad they didn't

 

[AD1066]

Leaning Zegras here because he's a known commodity and already looks to have the makings of an elite center. Maybe Wright does too, but I'd rather take what seems to be a relatively likely thing than gamble on what probably isn't much more upside.

 

[Tetsuo]

The only fair way to answer this question is to think about who you draft (without the benefit of hindsight) if they were both draft eligible in the same class. For me, that'd be Wright, given that I felt that Zegras was skilled but not a lock to be a C long term, whereas Wright is a prototypical top 6 do-everything-well C. I did like Zegras' skating more than I like Wright's at this point, but Wright has the clear edge as a goalscorer.

Now, I would take Zegras given that he fits the timeline of my team a little better and I know he's on track to be a really good top line C, but I didn't know any of that on draft night.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think it’s a valid question and I know a lot of people will on instinct take the known, but I feel like some aren’t thinking through Wright’s downside.

Unless you think the guy is going to be like a Yakupov, what is the argument that he’s much more than marginally worse than Zegras in his D+3? None of the 1OA’s that we’ve seen since Yakupov in their D+3 were more than marginally worse than Zegras.

And obviously there’s a chance for Wright to have more of a Matthews or Ekblad start than a Hughes or Lafreniere. I think if you combine the potential Wright D+3 floor with the ceiling, the answer is going to be Wright because there’s very little downside and clear upside over the known.

 

[Metroid]

I'm choosing Z right now.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think it’s a valid question and I know a lot of people will on instinct take the known, but I feel like some aren’t thinking through Wright’s downside.

Unless you think the guy is going to be like a Yakupov, what is the argument that he’s much more than marginally worse than Zegras in his D+3? None of the 1OA’s that we’ve seen since Yakupov in their D+3 were more than marginally worse than Zegras.

And obviously there’s a chance for Wright to have more of a Matthews or Ekblad start than a Hughes or Lafreniere. I think if you combine the potential Wright D+3 floor with the ceiling, the answer is going to be Wright because there’s very little downside and clear upside over the known.

There is tons of downside, what are you talking about? And he's nowhere near a Matthews level prospect, obviously. There's nothing about Wright's draft year performance that indicates a ceiling anywhere near that of Zegras.

Also it's laughable that you even put Lafreniere and Hughes in the same sentence. I know you're a Rangers fan but at least try to be objective.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

There is tons of downside, what are you talking about? And he's nowhere near a Matthews level prospect, obviously. There's nothing about Wright's draft year performance that indicates a ceiling anywhere near that of Zegras.

Also it's laughable that you even put Lafreniere and Hughes in the same sentence. I know you're a Rangers fan but at least try to be objective.

Then what is the downside to Wright in his D+3 that is more than marginally worse than Zegras is right now? Because unless you point to Yakupov, I don’t see the example you can point to of a 1OA in his D+3 that was more than marginally worse than Zegras in recent memory.

I also don’t know that it’s obvious that Wright was worse than Matthews pre-draft. I think the general consensus would be that they are similar in caliber. Draft season stats matter, but aren’t the only thing that matters when assessing these players.

As for Hughes and Lafreniere, I wasn’t comparing them. I was using them as widely agreed upon examples of two of the more recent disappointing 1OA starts to a career. I’m not sure who else I should be using. But if you want to get into this discussion, I think your Lafreniere criticism goes way overboard. You don’t like what you see, which is your right, but you take all context out of the equation and criticize him incessantly. I think some balance would be more agreeable than the extreme your opinion is on.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Then what is the downside to Wright in his D+3 that is more than marginally worse than Zegras is right now? Because unless you point to Yakupov, I don’t see the example you can point to of a 1OA in his D+3 that was more than marginally worse than Zegras in recent memory.

I also don’t know that it’s obvious that Wright was worse than Matthews pre-draft. I think the general consensus would be that they are similar in caliber. Draft season stats matter, but aren’t the only thing that matters when assessing these players.

As for Hughes and Lafreniere, I wasn’t comparing them. I was using them as widely agreed upon examples of two of the more recent disappointing 1OA starts to a career. I’m not sure who else I should be using. But if you want to get into this discussion, I think your Lafreniere criticism goes way overboard. You don’t like what you see, which is your right, but you take all context out of the equation and criticize him incessantly. I think some balance would be more agreeable than the extreme your opinion is on.

Firstly, there's no guarantee Wright goes first. I don't think he should, and if continues his current pace he probably won't.

Secondly, as a Ranger fan should know better than anyone that a first overall pick doesn't come without risk.

 

[CherryToke]

I'm choosing Z right now.

Zetterberg?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Firstly, there's no guarantee Wright goes first. I don't think he should, and if continues his current pace he probably won't.

Secondly, as a Ranger fan should know better than anyone that a first overall pick doesn't come without risk.

You may not think Wright should go first, but this is a situation where it’s almost certain that Wright will go first. There are a minority in most years that prefer someone else to the likely 1OA.

And I see you trying to set up Lafreniere as the example of what could go wrong. He hasn’t even gotten to his third season yet. I don’t know why you so prematurely have written him off. He has more points and better analytics through the same number of games as Kakko, who you love, so maybe you shouldn’t race to such an extreme about Lafreniere.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You may not think Wright should go first, but this is a situation where it’s almost certain that Wright will go first. There are a minority in most years that prefer someone else to the likely 1OA.

And I see you trying to set up Lafreniere as the example of what could go wrong. He hasn’t even gotten to his third season yet. I don’t know why you so prematurely have written him off. He has more points and better analytics through the same number of games as Kakko, who you love, so maybe you shouldn’t race to such an extreme about Lafreniere.

Lafreniere is a great example of what can go wrong. And no sane person would take him over Zegras.

 

[majormajor]

be better than Zegras? as great as Zegras looks to be, its not like hes doing what hes doing at age 18 right out of his draft year. Wright is whole 3 years younger and only in his second year in junior!

Wright is a consensus #1 pick, and usually those end out being pretty special. Yakupov being the only exception in the past 20 years or so. Time will tell.

Right now the consensus seems to be we'll give Wright a bit more time to prove that he still deserves the #1 spot.

It's been almost a full 12 months since Wright has looked like a player that deserves to be the #1OA. Kemell has been the better prospect this year, by a clear margin.

You may not think Wright should go first, but this is a situation where it’s almost certain that Wright will go first.

It's not almost certain.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

It's not almost certain.

We go through this stuff every year. Rarely is there ever any real doubt that the perceived 1OA doesn’t go first, despite the debates that are had. If you had to bet 1,000 of your own dollars on it, you are putting all of it on Wright.

 

[majormajor]

We go through this stuff every year. Rarely is there ever any real doubt that the perceived 1OA doesn’t go first, despite the debates that are had. If you had to bet 1,000 of your own dollars on it, you are putting all of it on Wright.

This isn't one of those media-generated debates. The real scouts are really uncertain about Wright at the moment.