YZERMAN: "We’re building a nucleus of young prospects that are going to be part of this team."

[Frk It]

i think we are still in “we don’t know what we have territory” as opposed to “what we have isn’t good enough” territory.

I can understand the latter being a realistic fear and people jumping the gun and going right to that.

But if Edvinsson becomes a stud 2 way defenseman it changes the trajectory of the team a lot. If ASP becomes a stud offensive defenseman it changes the trajectory of the team a lot. If Cossa or Augustine become stud goalies it changes the trajectory of the team a lot. Feel free to do that with a few more young players/prospects.

While I think it’s annoying Yzerman won’t even try to put any expectations or timelines out there, I do kind of understand why that is after thinking about it more.

 

[Retire91]

Wings got unlucky in the lottery but Yzerman still pulled great picks out of the first. We have one of the most exciting prospect pools in the NHL. You have to wait for those players to fill out the roster before you start signing or selling the farm for prime proven players . If you start signing before you know the capabilities of your core roster you just end up with a Frankenstein load of contracts that eventually collapses in on itself. Not sure why the Horvat trade is being treaded as the magic missing piece. If Yzermnan as you say could theoretically just fix the roster by signing and trading for players in their prime, why can't he just do that when one of the best prosepct pools in the NHL actually hits the roster full time? Wouldn't that make more sense.

 

[Frobbo]

Just read the team pipeline ratings in the Athletic. I was surprised to see the RWs so low, then I read the teams above them and thought differently. Granted it is one person's (Pronman) opinion. The RW's had several players rated fairly high but several teams had just as many rated as high or even in higher tiers overall. I was shocked at SJ's pool considering their system was a wasteland 2 years ago. They don't have much of a team at the NHL level but their prospects list is way superior.

 

[SirloinUB]

Seider > Dickinson (technically Seider doesn't qualify for this list but he is still young enough that it doesnt matter)
Raymond > Eklund
Askarov = Cossa
Smith = Danielson
MBN = Musty

Detroit doesn't have anything like Celebrini but SJS doesn't have anything like Larkin.

Edit:
Kasper > Chernyshov
ASP > Leo Sahlin Wallenius

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Seider > Dickinson (technically Seider doesn't qualify for this list but he is still young enough that it doesnt matter)
Raymond > Eklund
Askarov = Cossa
Smith = Danielson
MBN = Musty

From there prospects get interchangable.

Detroit doesn't have anything like celebrini but they don't have anything like Larkin.

imo smith>Danielson
NBN>Musty

 

[SirloinUB]

imo smith>Danielson
NBN>Musty

Fair comment. I think both comparisons are fairly close either way.

Also:

Kasper > Chernyshov
ASP > Leo Sahlin Wallenius

 

[Frobbo]

Fair comment. I think both comparisons are fairly close either way.

Also:

Kasper > Chernyshov
ASP > Leo Sahlin Wallenius

My point is SJ's pool goes 11 deep in the "middle of lineup player" category, RW is 7. That is more kicks at the can. SJ has two players ranked higher than ANY RW player (LR). They will suck for at least two more years, adding to their pool. True, they don't have a Seider, yet. I am not a SJ fan, far from it, but in this extended "Yzerman time frame" they (and others) might catch and pass the RWs. There are some really impressive player pools out there. Yzerman isn't the only GM capable of drafting and making smart subsequent moves.

 

[RedHawkDown]

My point is SJ's pool goes 11 deep in the "middle of lineup player" category, RW is 7. That is more kicks at the can. SJ has two players ranked higher than ANY RW player (LR). They will suck for at least two more years, adding to their pool. True, they don't have a Seider, yet. I am not a SJ fan, far from it, but in this extended "Yzerman time frame" they (and others) might catch and pass the RWs. There are some really impressive player pools out there. Yzerman isn't the only GM capable of drafting and making smart subsequent moves.

This is the thing that many people on this board don't seem to comprehend.

It's not enough to draft well and develop well. You have to do it much better than all the other teams also rebuilding in order to succeed.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

imo smith>Danielson
NBN>Musty

Noah Brandsegg-Nilsson?

This means two of our prospects just fused so I think we might just be ahead of the game over other franchises... Stay tuned for the Cossa Augustine clone

See guys the Yzerplan has more tricks than we thought

 

[Pavels Dog]

It's not enough to draft well and develop well. You have to do it much better than all the other teams also rebuilding in order to succeed.

If the bar for a success is being much better than all other teams, sure.

That's a pretty high bar though.


I think people should forget about creating a team that wins every President's Trophy and every Cup for 15 years.
Step 1 is building a team that's good enough to make the playoffs. Step 2 is having a team built for playoff success. Step 3 is a cup.
You don't have to be the best step 1 to achieve step 2. And you don't need to be the best at step 2 to achieve step 3.

Just gotta be in the mix.

 

[Frobbo]

If the bar for a success is being much better than all other teams, sure.

That's a pretty high bar though.


I think people should forget about creating a team that wins every President's Trophy and every Cup for 15 years.
Step 1 is building a team that's good enough to make the playoffs. Step 2 is having a team built for playoff success. Step 3 is a cup.
You don't have to be the best step 1 to achieve step 2. And you don't need to be the best at step 2 to achieve step 3.

Just gotta be in the mix.

I don't think he said much better than all the teams, he was just saying you had to be much better than the other REBUILDING teams to have a chance to reach your goal.
Your conclusion that all you have to be is pretty good (make the playoffs) is a stretch. In looking at 4 of the last 5 cup winners (TBL twice, Colorado and Fla) it was a consensus that they were, at least, as good as anybody. Vegas was close to that. Making the playoffs is a start but nobody was picking the Caps, LA, Nash, NYI among others to win a cup despite making the playoffs.
Merely reaching step one (playoffs) doesn't mean step 2 or especially step 3 is attainable. Once in a while a team will come from nowhere but relying on that isn't going to work very often. Even StL was well regarded in 2019 based on their 2nd half of the season.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

If the bar for a success is being much better than all other teams, sure.

That's a pretty high bar though.


I think people should forget about creating a team that wins every President's Trophy and every Cup for 15 years.
Step 1 is building a team that's good enough to make the playoffs. Step 2 is having a team built for playoff success. Step 3 is a cup.
You don't have to be the best step 1 to achieve step 2. And you don't need to be the best at step 2 to achieve step 3.

Just gotta be in the mix.

If "just being in the mix" is the bar, then, you're a failure...

Professional sports is about winning and only winning...nothing else matters whatsoever

Of course you can't or won't win every year but you best be doing everything you can to win the next time

 

[nbwingsfan]

Taking the prospects I expect to make it and plugging them as high into the lineup as I can, I get...

Debrincat - Larkin - Raymond
Plante - Danielson - MBN
Mazur - Kasper - Ras

AlJo - Seider
Ed - ASP

Cossa
Augustine

The 4th-liners and 3rd-pairing can be filled with UFAs/trades and maybe a couple of our C-level prospects who make it. Yes, AlJo on the top pairing, come at me.

It’s happened before, but realistically how many times do guys become top pair D when they’re going to be playing their first NHL games in their D+6?

 

[Pavels Dog]

I don't think he said much better than all the teams, he was just saying you had to be much better than the other REBUILDING teams to have a chance to reach your goal.
Your conclusion that all you have to be is pretty good (make the playoffs) is a stretch. In looking at 4 of the last 5 cup winners (TBL twice, Colorado and Fla) it was a consensus that they were, at least, as good as anybody. Vegas was close to that. Making the playoffs is a start but nobody was picking the Caps, LA, Nash, NYI among others to win a cup despite making the playoffs.
Merely reaching step one (playoffs) doesn't mean step 2 or especially step 3 is attainable. Once in a while a team will come from nowhere but relying on that isn't going to work very often. Even StL was well regarded in 2019 based on their 2nd half of the season.

I think comparing the end goal of our rebuild to the recent Caps who made the playoffs as THE WORST TEAM TO EVER MAKE THE PLAYOFFS is disingenious. Of course we need to be better than that team, which, btw, we already were this last season..

I just think people are setting an impossible bar if literally any other team becoming better than us in the regular season means the rebuild is a failure. It's been clear since 2019 that Yzerman is trying to build a team that can win in the playoffs. Compete, size, two-way play etc. have been key components of the draft philosophy. All things that are more important in May than in November.
We don't need to win the president's trophy every season. Being a top 5, top 10, sometimes just top 15 team in the regular season can be fine.

If "just being in the mix" is the bar, then, you're a failure...

Professional sports is about winning and only winning...nothing else matters whatsoever

Of course you can't or won't win every year but you best be doing everything you can to win the next time

Florida made the SCF as the 17th best team in the league.
St.Louis won the cup as the 12th best team.

Winning the cup is what's important. If you focus on regular season success, you're a failure.

Like I said, first you gotta be able to make the playoffs consistently. Next, you need a team that's built to win in the playoffs. Third, you need to actually win.
If step 1 is becoming the bestest regular season ever to achieve bragging rights against other rebuilders the focus is probably on the wrong thing.

It’s happened before, but realistically how many times do guys become top pair D when they’re going to be playing their first NHL games in their D+6?

Legit #1D carry ~2nd pairing caliber partners all the time. Seider is going to have to do it this season too unless Edvinsson breaks out and they decide to stack them.

 

[Henkka]

It’s happened before, but realistically how many times do guys become top pair D when they’re going to be playing their first NHL games in their D+6?

Think Alexandre Carrier is the latest one.

He could be 1st pair D at oncoming season. Had some NHL taste (only 5 games) before D+6 season, when he played 19 games.

He is projected to be Josi's partner on 1st pair, but 3rd D (in ice-time) behind Josi and Skjei.

Guy has still some time to develop. He is 27-year old.

Sound crazy, but I think Niko Mikkola could develop to be a 1st pair D too, as a defensive, physical version (for a Norris partner).

Him and Carrier are from same 2015 draft, so you have to look at least 9 years behind, to find these guys. Just tells, how long the development could last on some cases.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I think comparing the end goal of our rebuild to the recent Caps who made the playoffs as THE WORST TEAM TO EVER MAKE THE PLAYOFFS is disingenious. Of course we need to be better than that team, which, btw, we already were this last season..

I just think people are setting an impossible bar if literally any other team becoming better than us in the regular season means the rebuild is a failure. It's been clear since 2019 that Yzerman is trying to build a team that can win in the playoffs. Compete, size, two-way play etc. have been key components of the draft philosophy. All things that are more important in May than in November.
We don't need to win the president's trophy every season. Being a top 5, top 10, sometimes just top 15 team in the regular season can be fine.


Florida made the SCF as the 17th best team in the league.
St.Louis won the cup as the 12th best team.

Winning the cup is what's important. If you focus on regular season success, you're a failure.

Like I said, first you gotta be able to make the playoffs consistently. Next, you need a team that's built to win in the playoffs. Third, you need to actually win.
If step 1 is becoming the bestest regular season ever to achieve bragging rights against other rebuilders the focus is probably on the wrong thing.


Legit #1D carry ~2nd pairing caliber partners all the time. Seider is going to have to do it this season too unless Edvinsson breaks out and they decide to stack them.

Yes you're correct, you need to make the playoffs to compete in them...

And Fla losing and STL winning are good examples, but how often is it a top 5 team is in the cup finals vs not top 5 team and how often is it a top 5 team wins the cup vs non top 5 team?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Yes you're correct, you need to make the playoffs to compete in them...

And Fla losing and STL winning are good examples, but how often is it a top 5 team is in the cup finals vs not top 5 team and how often is it a top 5 team wins the cup vs non top 5 team?

St.Louis and Washington are probably the best examples of recent winnners that were not top 5 teams.

Best overall proof of my point may be the LA Kings. Won in 2012 as a 13th seed, and in 2014 as a 10th seed. During that competitive window (2009-2014) they were the 9th best regular season team in the league and won 2 cups.

 

[Euro Twins]

If the bar for a success is being much better than all other teams, sure.

That's a pretty high bar though.


I think people should forget about creating a team that wins every President's Trophy and every Cup for 15 years.
Step 1 is building a team that's good enough to make the playoffs. Step 2 is having a team built for playoff success. Step 3 is a cup.
You don't have to be the best step 1 to achieve step 2. And you don't need to be the best at step 2 to achieve step 3.

Just gotta be in the mix.

Too many people just don't understand or cannot grasp this.

There's also free agents and trades that fill in certain holes along the way that help you get to step 3.

Look at a team like LA 2012, St. Louis 2019, Montreal 2020

Just a few examples of teams that found themselves in the mix. 2 of those teams won the cup and one made the finals.

But people are LIKE YOU NEED TO BE TOP 3

meanwhile presidents trophy almost never wins a cup, Toronto is the top team a lot of people want to be but they can't win in the playoffs.

But ya according to some posters being in the mix is a failure.

 

[sepster]

It’s happened before, but realistically how many times do guys become top pair D when they’re going to be playing their first NHL games in their D+6?

I've been told Jake Walman was the best Dman the Wings have had since Red Kelly and he played 1 game in D+6 and wasn't a top pair guy until D+9.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Too many people just don't understand or cannot grasp this.

There's also free agents and trades that fill in certain holes along the way that help you get to step 3.

Look at a team like LA 2012, St. Louis 2019, Montreal 2020

Just a few examples of teams that found themselves in the mix. 2 of those teams won the cup and one made the finals.

But people are LIKE YOU NEED TO BE TOP 3

meanwhile presidents trophy almost never wins a cup, Toronto is the top team a lot of people want to be but they can't win in the playoffs.

But ya according to some posters being in the mix is a failure.

I think the problem is the lack of understanding stats...

Being a top 5 NHL team statistically increases your odds of:
a) competing in the cup finals
b) winning in the cup finals

As opposed to being a bottom 5 NHL playoff team (11 to 16)

It's insane this is even a debate

 

[Euro Twins]

I think the problem is the lack of understanding stats...

Being a top 5 NHL team statistically increases your odds of:
a) competing in the cup finals
b) winning in the cup finals

As opposed to being a bottom 5 NHL playoff team (11 to 16)

It's insane this is even a debate

You're the one making it a debate tbh. The original post was very clear. The point is to be in the mix before taking the next step of being a Stanley Cup team. You don't have to be the best team in the league to be in the playoffs or make some noise in the playoffs.

Then you attract more star talent and make a good run as a top 10 team.

You're getting really hung up on needing to be a top 5 team or bust.

That might be statistically the best chance we have at winning a cup but it's not necessarily the only chance.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

You're the one making it a debate tbh. The original post was very clear. The point is to be in the mix before taking the next step of being a Stanley Cup team. You don't have to be the best team in the league to be in the playoffs or make some noise in the playoffs.

Then you attract more star talent and make a good run as a top 10 team.

You're getting really hung up on needing to be a top 5 team or bust.

That might be statistically the best chance we have at winning a cup but it's not necessarily the only chance.

Woah....I am now, and only ever was, debating the notion that the goal of being a top 5 team should not be the definition of success...

I could care less the steps needed to get there so long as that's the goal...anything less is a failure

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

You're the one making it a debate tbh. The original post was very clear. The point is to be in the mix before taking the next step of being a Stanley Cup team. You don't have to be the best team in the league to be in the playoffs or make some noise in the playoffs.

Then you attract more star talent and make a good run as a top 10 team.

You're getting really hung up on needing to be a top 5 team or bust.

That might be statistically the best chance we have at winning a cup but it's not necessarily the only chance.

I agree, we aren't going to become a top 5 team without some organic growth that gives us valuable assets to trade or makes us attractive to free agents. This nucleus isn't sufficient for a top 5 team, but I think it is moving us to a position where we could potentially make additional moves to become a top 5 team in the next 3-5 years. Those moves may never materialize in the end, but they are becoming more realistic in my eyes,.

 

[jaster]

It’s happened before, but realistically how many times do guys become top pair D when they’re going to be playing their first NHL games in their D+6?

It's not overly likely, I admit that. But I think AlJo, if he hits his ceiling, can be a good 2nd-pair guy who has the functionality to play well with Seider on the top pair in most situations (with maybe Ed stepping in during situations where we need a super pair to dominate). Gustav Forsling is the popular comp when talking about AlJo's upside, but even if AlJo only lands at 75% of a Forsling, I think he could still fill the role I'm describing.

 

[GMR]

That lineup won't win a Cup unless MBN and Danielson exceed expectations, and they become the first line. In fact, they'll have a hard time getting into the playoffs unless Cossa/Gus wind up being top 10 goalies.

Cup?

I just hope we can win a playoff series or two. They’re not contenders in the near or far future with this roster.