YZERMAN: "We’re building a nucleus of young prospects that are going to be part of this team."

[Gniwder]

There's a year or two between 2023 and 2029.

Also it's all sorts of baffling to be handwringing about the 1C status of Larkin and/or Danielson in a few years while championing the acquisition of Bo F'n Horvat...

Well logic isn't your strong suit. Who's the 1C when Larkin starts declining?

If Stevie planned on going with Larkin as 1C, he should have developed the team based on his timeline (which is the same as Horvat because they're only 1 year apart). If Stevie planned on a longer rebuild, he should have traded Larkin and gone full tank.

The end result of Stevie's mediocrity is picking #6OA, #8OA, #9OA, and #15OA when the team really needed Bedard or Celebrini. Either go for the playoffs or tank. Bubble team is the worst place to be.

The only way this team wins a Cup in the foreseeable future is if Danielson becomes a 1C. If he does, I'll shut up, lol.

 

[norrisnick]

Well logic isn't your strong suit. Who's the 1C when Larkin starts declining?

If Stevie planned on going with Larkin as 1C, he should have developed the team based on his timeline (which is the same as Horvat because they're only 1 year apart). If Stevie planned on a longer rebuild, he should have traded Larkin and gone full tank.

The end result of Stevie's mediocrity is picking #6OA, #8OA, #9OA, and #15OA when the team really needed Bedard or Celebrini. Either go for the playoffs or tank. Bubble team is the worst place to be.

The only way this team wins a Cup in the foreseeable future is if Danielson becomes a 1C. If he does, I'll shut up, lol.

Whoever? It certainly wouldn't be Horvat.

I don't think Yzerman has Larkin etched into stone as being our best forward for all eternity. He's just our best forward now. And moving him means replacing him.

Full tank is a myth. Followed very closely by "just get in and you've got a chance!".

The future success of this team will not be defined by its centers.

 

[Gniwder]

Whoever? It certainly wouldn't be Horvat.

I don't think Yzerman has Larkin etched into stone as being our best forward for all eternity. He's just our best forward now. And moving him means replacing him.

Full tank is a myth. Followed very closely by "just get in and you've got a chance!".

The future success of this team will not be defined by its centers.

LOL, virtually every Cup team has 2 high caliber centers. We're done bud, if you don't think centers matter, there's really no point in arguing.

As for Stevie, he's got all of his eggs in Danielson's basket. I think the kid will be good, I'm just not sure he'll be 1C capable of carrying a team to the Cup. Time will tell.

 

[Henkka]

Florida vs. Detroit Centers from last season:

Barkov points per game: 1.10
Larkin points per game: 1.01

Bennett points per game: 0.59
Compher points per game: 0.62

Lundell points per game: 0.45
Copp points per game: 0:42

Stenlund points per game: 0.19
Veleno points per game: 0.35

 

[Pavels Dog]

Larkin is aging, 3 to 5 years from now, he might not be a 1C any more, especially since he relies on speed so much. Then what? The entire plan falls apart unless Danielson winds up being a legit 1C.

If the plan was to wait until 2029 to go for the Cup, then Stevie should have traded DBoss and gone full tank for 3 years instead of just one year.

As I said, the risky moves could come 3-5 years from now, IF it's apparent what we have isn't enough or isn't working.
Such a move could be trading a 32 year old Larkin, it could be trading Danielson+Pellikka, it could be trading multiple 1st round picks, it could be going all-in to sign a superstar player in FA.

You're bringing up risky moves like the ones Florida made but not really with the context that Florida made those moves later in the process. For us, the equivalent point of going out and trading for Bennett, Reinhart and Tkachuk would be 3-4 years from now.

 

[Henkka]

Larkin will age and Danielson could replace him as 1C, just like Fedorov did for Yzerman at some point.

It's a good problem to have.

 

[HisNoodliness]

So Pronman has us at 14 for his pipeline rankings. Obviously, Pronman's sort of a hack, splits his viewings between so many leagues that he's not so effective at covering them anywhere and is particularly bad at ranking players (whereas I feel his ability to evaluate a player in a vacuum is underrated IMO). Furthermore, our preferred player style doesn't quite line up with his and the way we slow burn our guys hurts their public perception. Lastly, without the lottery luck, we don't have the kind of players that get an easy bump in public lists...

But even with all of those corollaries, I have to be honest, at this point in our rebuild, after having had so many picks, being middle of the pack is a little disheartening. I think the talent in our system at this point should be so built up that we're undeniably top 10-especially because he's still including Raymond in this.

 

[Gniwder]

As I said, the risky moves could come 3-5 years from now, IF it's apparent what we have isn't enough or isn't working.
Such a move could be trading a 32 year old Larkin, it could be trading Danielson+Pellikka, it could be trading multiple 1st round picks, it could be going all-in to sign a superstar player in FA.

You're bringing up risky moves like the ones Florida made but not really with the context that Florida made those moves later in the process. For us, the equivalent point of going out and trading for Bennett, Reinhart and Tkachuk would be 3-4 years from now.

An who's the 1C in any of these scenarios?

Larkin will age and Danielson could replace him as 1C, just like Fedorov did for Yzerman at some point.

It's a good problem to have.

COULD. Maybe. What if he becomes a good 2C level player? At that point the team will have to tank again to get a 1C.

 

[SirloinUB]

So Pronman has us at 14 for his pipeline rankings. Obviously, Pronman's sort of a hack, splits his viewings between so many leagues that he's not so effective at covering them anywhere and is particularly bad at ranking players (whereas I feel his ability to evaluate a player in a vacuum is underrated IMO). Furthermore, our preferred player style doesn't quite line up with his and the way we slow burn our guys hurts their public perception. Lastly, without the lottery luck, we don't have the kind of players that get an easy bump in public lists...

But even with all of those corollaries, I have to be honest, at this point in our rebuild, after having had so many picks, being middle of the pack is a little disheartening. I think the talent in our system at this point should be so built up that we're undeniably top 10-especially because he's still including Raymond in this.

FWIW, I think several other rankings have the red wings top 5/top10

 

[raymond23]

So Pronman has us at 14 for his pipeline rankings. Obviously, Pronman's sort of a hack, splits his viewings between so many leagues that he's not so effective at covering them anywhere and is particularly bad at ranking players (whereas I feel his ability to evaluate a player in a vacuum is underrated IMO). Furthermore, our preferred player style doesn't quite line up with his and the way we slow burn our guys hurts their public perception. Lastly, without the lottery luck, we don't have the kind of players that get an easy bump in public lists...

But even with all of those corollaries, I have to be honest, at this point in our rebuild, after having had so many picks, being middle of the pack is a little disheartening. I think the talent in our system at this point should be so built up that we're undeniably top 10-especially because he's still including Raymond in this.

Seider "graduated" so that doesn't help

It's Raymond plus 6 first round draft picks that are all on their way to Detroit pretty soon here (we were ranked 2nd best prospect pool by the athletic)

I'm looking at the teams ranked above them and I find it pretty questionable to be honest. Aside from ASP we don't have any "sexy" prospects

 

[schuelma24]

So Pronman has us at 14 for his pipeline rankings. Obviously, Pronman's sort of a hack, splits his viewings between so many leagues that he's not so effective at covering them anywhere and is particularly bad at ranking players (whereas I feel his ability to evaluate a player in a vacuum is underrated IMO). Furthermore, our preferred player style doesn't quite line up with his and the way we slow burn our guys hurts their public perception. Lastly, without the lottery luck, we don't have the kind of players that get an easy bump in public lists...

But even with all of those corollaries, I have to be honest, at this point in our rebuild, after having had so many picks, being middle of the pack is a little disheartening. I think the talent in our system at this point should be so built up that we're undeniably top 10-especially because he's still including Raymond in this.

I think he's undervaluing Raymond and Ed for sure, but now that Seider's aged out, I don't think it's reasonable to expect them to be too high in this type of ranking. The top 8 is going to be dominated by the teams that have been picking in the top 5 - that's just how this type of ranking goes.

I think the biggest positive is how high he is on Danielson. If he hits, the rebuild looks a lot different.

 

[norrisnick]

An who's the 1C in any of these scenarios?

COULD. Maybe. What if he becomes a good 2C level player? At that point the team will have to tank again to get a 1C.

Only 11 of the top 32 scoring centers this past season were 1. drafted in the top 10 and 2. playing for the team that drafted them.

 

[Henkka]

I'm looking at the teams ranked above them and I find it pretty questionable to be honest. Aside from ASP we don't have any "sexy" prospects

Sexy prospects will demand high salaries and will lead to cap hell.

I'd rather have boring and cost-controlled prospects.

 

[jkutswings]

And who's the 1C in any of these scenarios?


COULD. Maybe. What if he becomes a good 2C level player? At that point the team will have to tank again to get a 1C.

1) You have the false assumption that an elite 1C is mandatory for Cup contention. I would argue that once all the key prospects are of the right age, even if Detroit ends up effectively having two good 2C players in Larkin and Danielson, it's absolutely still possible to reach the Conference Finals or more. They just need the probable roster strengths (defense, goaltending) to be really really good.

2) You also assume that if Danielson doesn't reach the level of 1C, then tanking is the only path to acquiring said 1C. Are other options less likely? Sure. But if Florida can trade for Tkachuk (and LA and St Louis won Cups after trading for lesser guys like Jeff Carter and ROR) isn't it at least POSSIBLE that the right trade (or even free agent) center could happen for Detroit?

No matter which strategy for roster building a team uses, a huge list of things needs to go right. But it's not Yzerman's job to have 100 percent of his problems already solved right now. He just needs to keep improving the team and be willing to turn over every rock necessary to have an overall product close to ready when the kids are entering their prime, so that he only needs 1-2 final moves to put them over the top when their Cup contention window begins.

 

[Pavels Dog]

An who's the 1C in any of these scenarios?

Larkin, Danielson, someone we sign in FA, someone we trade for, or someone really unexpected from within.

 

[SirloinUB]

1) You have the false assumption that an elite 1C is mandatory for Cup contention. I would argue that once all the key prospects are of the right age, even if Detroit ends up effectively having two good 2C players in Larkin and Danielson, it's absolutely still possible to reach the Conference Finals or more. They just need the probable roster strengths (defense, goaltending) to be really really good.

2) You also assume that if Danielson doesn't reach the level of 1C, then tanking is the only path to acquiring said 1C. Are other options less likely? Sure. But if Florida can trade for Tkachuk (and LA and St Louis won Cups after trading for lesser guys like Jeff Carter and ROR) isn't it at least POSSIBLE that the right trade (or even free agent) center could happen for Detroit?

No matter which strategy for roster building a team uses, a huge list of things needs to go right. But it's not Yzerman's job to have 100 percent of his problems already solved right now. He just needs to keep improving the team and be willing to turn over every rock necessary to have an overall product close to ready when the kids are entering their prime, so that he only needs 1-2 final moves to put them over the top when their Cup contention window begins.

I love the posts bemoaning the fact that Yzerman didn't trade for Horvat and then a few posts later saying we need to tank for a center.

 

[Euro Twins]

I think that's possible...a #3 legit dman or top 4 forward is our biggest organizational need(s)

Top 2 center is what we need. Not defense. We soon will have seider Ed and asp

I'd say that weird transition time between new ownership, new arena, the end of the Holland era.

I never blamed Ken Holland/Red Wings for extending the playoff streak attempting to win with Datsyuk on the roster. Mistakes were made though, especially at the very end, you have to pay players to win, paying the wrong players is the mistake many, many teams/GM/etc make and it's what did the Red Wings in more-so than bad drafting. (Imo). Paying guys like Abdelkader,Ericsson,Howard,DeKeyser,Daley,Weiss,Green,Clearly,Franzen big money long-term and whiffing hurts.

Those last two Holland years were extremely tough, as was the first Yzerman year but ATLEAST we all knew we have had turned the page as fans/organization.

Paying Franzen was not a mistake. No one could anticipate the concussions and Babcock being a douche

 

[jkutswings]

No one could anticipate the concussions

Agreed.

and Babcock being a douche

 

[Gniwder]

I love the posts bemoaning the fact that Yzerman didn't trade for Horvat and then a few posts later saying we need to tank for a center.

You don't get it do you?

Either go all in or tank. This bubble team BS sucks. The lineup in the original post just screams continued mediocrity.

Larkin, Danielson, someone we sign in FA, someone we trade for, or someone really unexpected from within.

Larkin is getting older. Danielson is basically the only hope. I don't see Stevie signing another UFA center until Copp's contract expires. 3 more years of mediocrity is baked into the formula.

 

[SirloinUB]

You don't get it do you?

Either go all in or tank. This bubble team BS sucks. The lineup in the original post just screams continued mediocrity.



Larkin is getting older. Danielson is basically the only hope. I don't see Stevie signing another UFA center until Copp's contract expires. 3 more years of mediocrity is baked into the formula.

Would you say you're always an impatient person or just impatient with rebuilds?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Larkin is getting older. Danielson is basically the only hope. I don't see Stevie signing another UFA center until Copp's contract expires. 3 more years of mediocrity is baked into the formula.

We've barely had 1 year of mediocrity. And that was with, arguably, bottom 5-10 goaltending and defense. I don't see how even the most negative person in the world couldn't see the potential for improvement if the defense and goaltending gets to a league average level.

 

[Gniwder]

Would you say you're always an impatient person or just impatient with rebuilds?

Or maybe I don't like the direction of the rebuild?

We've barely had 1 year of mediocrity. And that was with, arguably, bottom 5-10 goaltending and defense. I don't see how even the most negative person in the world couldn't see the potential for improvement if the defense and goaltending gets to a league average level.

The team will be better, they'll probably squeak into the playoffs this season. I consider bubble teams and first round fodder as "mediocre". The projected lineup the OP posted just doesn't say Cup.

 

[Pavels Dog]

The team will be better, they'll probably squeak into the playoffs this season. I consider bubble teams and first round fodder as "mediocre". The projected lineup the OP posted just doesn't say Cup.

Again, let's see it happen before complaining about how much it happens.

It's like saying "1 million goesn't buy you much in this economy" while sitting there with 50 dollars in the bank account.

 

[SirloinUB]

Or maybe I don't like the direction of the rebuild?


The team will be better, they'll probably squeak into the playoffs this season. I consider bubble teams and first round fodder as "mediocre". The projected lineup the OP posted just doesn't say Cup.

You're entitled to your opinion.

To frame it as "bubble team bs" when the team has gotten better every year and 80% of the prospects from the rebuild haven't even hit the roster yet (never mind the primes of their respective careers) seems a little disingenuous to me.

 

[jkutswings]

You don't get it do you?

Either go all in or tank. This bubble team BS sucks. The lineup in the original post just screams continued mediocrity.

I think you might be the one who doesn't get it.

You can't advocate for signing a good center in free agency, and then say that the only way they can land a good center is by tanking. The first part inherently states that there is more than one option to acquiring a good center, nullifying the second part.

As for an all or nothing approach, I would ask two questions:

1) How important do you think the following overall collection of players is to Detroit contending for a Cup?
- Seider
- Raymond
- Edvinsson
- Cossa
- Danielson
- Augustine
- Kasper
- ASP
- Johansson
- MBN

2) How soon do you think the majority of those players will be ready to succeed in the NHL playoffs?

I agree that Detroit should not sign LOUSY free agents. But it doesn't make sense to really "go all in" until most of the other pieces are close to ready.