Value of: Your Team's Best Offer For McDavid

  • PLEASE check any bookmark on all devices. IF you see a link pointing to mandatory.com DELETE it Please use this URL https://forums.hfboards.com/

dwonger

Registered User
Feb 25, 2023
549
905
7x17.5M in the Summer of 2026 assuming he goes to UFA

he has a full NMC he won't take a trade to Calgary
Say he did go to UFA, the negotiation rights alone to negotiate before anyone else and possibly get a 8th year with a sign and trade, just imagine alone what that would go for.
 

GOilers88

#FreeMoustacheRides
Dec 24, 2016
14,945
22,340
Imo the only way a player like this gets traded is if he requests a trade. At that point the value likely declines. Barring that, I don’t think any team that trades for him comes out better for it, and the situation he would be going to would be worse for him as the team would likely be gutted.

I think the most realistic way McDavid moves teams is if he finishes his contract and just walks away, but even that isn’t realistic because no organization would let him just walk.

Don’t think any team that trades a McDavid wins, and I don’t know that any team acquiring him for real value wins either.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
26,520
21,848
Waterloo Ontario
No offense but based on your previous post that does not appear to be the case.

And nice attempt at moving the goalposts, but Point’s elite status is based on his goals per postseason game, not points. When the only people ahead of him are Lemieux, Bossy, Richard, Neely, Gretzky, and Kurri, I’d certainly say that qualifies.
You do realize that both McDavid and Draisaitl have a higher G/gp than Point. Does that surprise you given the three players involved? Oh yah but sample size. I am curious why you set the bar at 80 games? Why not 100 or 150. What's so magic about 80 games? Why not 82, a full season? In that case Point doesn't count because he hasn't hit the cutoff? Who knows what will happen in game 82? Nate MacKinnon has the highest g/gp total on the active list with 44 in 75 but I guess that doesn't count because he only played 75 games. If he plays 5 more I guess its possible that he could have a negative -5 goal total that would drop him below Point. And that Pavel Bure guy only played 64 games. I guess there is no compelling evidence that he could have kept the pace up for 16 more. Or that he could have scored 5 more goals in his next 17 games to catch Point. After all, its not like the guy has a record of being an elite goal scorer that he could present in his defense. Craig Simpson had 36 goals in 67 games. Could he have scored 4 more in his next 13 games? Maybe we should do a statistical analysis and see how it plays out. But let's say that 80 is the right cutoff. Even then you missed a few names. How about Richard or the Hulls or Ciccarelli or Shutt or Leach Or Kerr?

Or how about we look at how Point achieved that elite total. It was based on his performance over just two seasons where he scored 28 goals in 46 games. That would give him an edge of ,609 g/gp over 46 to Draisaitl's career totals of .571 g/gp. But then there is that little thing about Draisaitl's big lead in points to deal with over fewer games. Points other g/gm totals in other playoff years have been .411, .25, ,222 and .4. Draisaitl's 7 in 16 = .4375 from last year was his lowest g/gp total from any of his 5 playoff years. And if you watched the player you would know that his injury impacted his shot a fair bit. Which one of the two is likely to have the highest g/gm total if they each play in 5 more playoffs? So just maybe sample size can bite you as well if you look at things differently.

I've taught statistics at the undergraduate level and probability at the graduate level so I understand basic probability and statistics well enough to know that your sample size argument in this case is completely bogus. I am also pretty confident that if I walked down the hallway to chat with my friends in the Stats Department, they would side with me on this one.
 
Last edited:

Hextallent63

Registered User
Oct 13, 2011
3,197
3,277
ok, Carter Hart, Cam York, Morgan Frost, Ron Hextall, Steve Duchesne, Mike Ricci, and 2 2nds of their choice. Just kidding, I tried to put a package together from the flyers, but they just don't have enough. Cool thread though peeps.

You do realize that both McDavid and Draisaitl have a higher G/gp than Point. Does that surprise you given the three players involved? Oh yah but sample size. I am curious why you set the bar at 80 games? Why not 100 or 150. What's so magic about 80 games? Why not 82, a full season? In that case Point doesn't count because he hasn't hit the cutoff? Who knows what will happen in game 82? Nate MacKinnon has the highest g/gp total on the active list with 44 in 75 but I guess that doesn't count because he only played 75 games. If he plays 5 more I guess its possible that he could have a negative -5 goal total that would drop him below Point. And that Pavel Bure guy only played 64 games. I guess there is no compelling evidence that he could have kept the pace up for 16 more. Or that he could have scored 5 more goals in his next 17 games to catch Point. After all, its not like the guy has a record of being an elite goal scorer that he could present in his defense. Craig Simpson had 36 goals in 67 games. Could he have scored 4 more in his next 13 games? Maybe we should do a statistical analysis and see how it plays out. But let's say that 80 is the right cutoff. Even then you missed a few names. How about Richard or the Hulls or Ciccarelli or Shutt or Leach Or Kerr?

Or how about we look at how Point achieved that elite total. It was based on his performance over just two seasons where he scored 28 goals in 46 games. That would give him an edge of ,609 g/gp over 46 to Draisaitl's career totals of .571 g/gp. But then there is that little thing about Draisaitl's big lead in points to deal with over fewer games. Points other g/gm totals in other playoff years have been .411, .25, ,222 and .4. Draisaitl's 7 in 16 = .4375 from last year was his lowest g/gp total from any of his 5 playoff years. And if you watched the player you would know that his injury impacted his shot a fair bit. Which one of the two is likely to have the highest g/gm total if they each play in 5 more playoffs? So just maybe sample size can bite you as well if you look at things differently.

I've taught statistics at the undergraduate level and probability at the graduate level so I understand basic probability and statistics well enough to know that your sample size argument in this case is completely bogus. I am also pretty confident that if I walked down the hallway to chat with my friends in the Stats Department, they would side with me on this one.
you love mcdavid. jesus, i wish i still had love for the flyers like this.
 

666

Registered User
Jun 27, 2005
3,053
825
I think the most realistic way McDavid moves teams is if he finishes his contract and just walks away, but even that isn’t realistic because no organization would let him just walk.
What can they do? It would be similar to Tavares.
 

GOilers88

#FreeMoustacheRides
Dec 24, 2016
14,945
22,340
He has a NMC. It's up to him not the team just like Tavares and Sundin.
If he tells you he wants to be traded before his contract is up I’m sure they could find something. I don’t think he would lead them to believe he’s going to extend and then just say nah f*** it I’m out.

If he does that then obviously there’s nothing you can do. I just don’t think that happens.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
26,520
21,848
Waterloo Ontario
If he tells you he wants to be traded before his contract is up I’m sure they could find something. I don’t think he would lead them to believe he’s going to extend and then just say nah f*** it I’m out.

If he does that then obviously there’s nothing you can do. I just don’t think that happens.
He'll be signed in July of 2024 if he has any intention of staying which I fully expect he will do.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad